Salary Cap: How much AAV are you willing to give Tyson Barrie on a 7-8 year extension?

[zeke]

Why'd you use total goals against instead of goal against per 60 which take into account the ice time each individual played ?

because I was responding to a post about total goals.

and showing why it was a poor stat to use.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Except that at 5v5 Barrie does a poorer job at scoring more at 5v5 than being scored against.

Context is important here. Barrie is a larger liability on 5v5 than all these top defensmen you're trying to compare him to.

Leafs should have kept Hainsey. he's clearly a top 10 player in the league

 

[MyBudJT]

Even strength goals against, last 3 years:

1.Ceci 230
2.Leddy 208
3.Ristolainen 208
4.Petry 207
5.Rielly 204
6.Ekblad 203
7.OEL 200
8.Burns 197
9.Severson 197
10.Keith 195
11.Karlsson 195
12.Suter 194
13.Provorov 191
14.Yandle 190
15.Goligoski 187
16.Slavin 184
17.Barrie 184
18.Faulk 182
19.Skjei 182
20.Doughty 181
21.Larsson 181
22.Orlov 181
23.Greene 180
24.Zaitsev 179
25.Jones 179
26.Dumoulin 178
27.Hanifin 176
28.Vlasic 173
29.Brodie 173
30.Pietrangelo 172


some pretty good dmen there.

#IAlwaysUsePer60Stats

 

[zeke]

#IAlwaysUsePer60Stats

lol.

I was responding directly to your post about total goals.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

no, it means he's the 30th worst in the entire league, by that stat.

OK, that's why I asked for clarification as I wasn't sure what the moral of the story was so to speak.

That would mean that approx. 150 defenders (or whatever the number is) had fewer goals against and are therefore supposedly better than Pietrangelo, at least according to that one specific stat ........???

Aside - Ceci being so close to Reilly was interesting/surprising.

 

[hotpaws]

because I was responding to a post about total goals.

and showing why it was a poor stat to use.

More like you just pick and choose stats to fit your narrative .

 

[zeke]

OK, that's why I asked for clarification as I wasn't sure what the moral of the story was so to speak.

That would mean that approx. 150 defenders (or whatever the number is) had fewer goals against and are therefore supposedly better than Pietrangelo, at least according to that one specific stat ........???

Aside - Ceci being so close to Reilly was interesting/surprising.

he ranks 30th of 373, actually.

I was trying to point out that that stat was not a good stat to measure defense.

 

[zeke]

More like you just pick and choose stats to fit your narrative .

what "narrative" do you believe that post was trying to fit?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

1. he ranks 30th of 373, actually.

2. I was trying to point out that that stat was not a good stat to measure defense.

1. Yep, I get it now. Might have been a little clearer if those words were mentioned in the initial post. Thanks.

2. Agreed.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Barrie is going to pile up the points here. We should try to get him for 6-7 x 7-7.5 before puck drop in October.

Amazing how his stock seemed to drop the minute we traded for him.

 

[Gallagbi]

More like you just pick and choose stats to fit your narrative .

Wasn't this the quote?

Last 3 seasons, he's 65th in the NHL in goals allowed, despite playing next to no PK time, and almost everyone ahead of him played significant PK time. Add the fact that he starts a LOT more in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and that is pretty bad.

Seems Zeke's response is completely logical

 

[zeke]

Barrie is going to pile up the points here. We should try to get him for 6-7 x 7-7.5 before puck drop in October.

Amazing how his stock seemed to drop the minute we traded for him.

Gardiner vs Barrie, September 2018: Jake Gardiner vs Tyson Barrie

Barrie gets 80% of the vote. Now apparently he's not a real upgrade on Gardiner.

 

[biotk]

Interesting thing about the two new assistant coaches.

McFarland was PP coach in florida the last 2yrs:

Hakstol was coach in Philly the last 4yrs:

Not really relevant. I think that most coaches would love to go with two really strong PPs, but they don't have the players to make it work. The Leafs do. It allows you to always start the PP with a fresh group. It allows you have a strong group that is still pretty fresh at the end of the PP when your opposing PKers are either dead tired or the second stringers.

Last year we got what we had been clamoring for - a stacked PP1. Experiment failed.

 

[biotk]

Gardiner vs Barrie, September 2018: Jake Gardiner vs Tyson Barrie

Barrie gets 80% of the vote. Now apparently he's not a real upgrade on Gardiner.

While you are complaining about others dropping how much they value Barrie because he is now a Leaf, has your own position changed on Barrie vs Gardiner changed now that Barrie is a Leaf.

 

[MyBudJT]

Gardiner vs Barrie, September 2018: Jake Gardiner vs Tyson Barrie

Barrie gets 80% of the vote. Now apparently he's not a real upgrade on Gardiner.

While you are complaining about others dropping how much they value Barrie because he is now a Leaf, has your own position changed on Barrie vs Gardiner changed now that Barrie is a Leaf.

 

[zeke]

I think that most coaches would love to go with two really strong PPs, but they don't have the players to make it work.

you think? seems to me that most every team stacks their top unit, and always has.

 

[biotk]

I think the PP discussion is an interesting one.

I really think we should go back to our 1A / 1B approach we had in 2017/18.

Yes, the Leafs also had this in 2016/17 when both units played almost the exact same.

I'd like to see something like:

-------Mikheyev*-------
Nylander-----Matthews
----Kerfoot---Rielly----


---------Tavares--------
Spezza----------Marner
---Barrie----Muzzin---

* Position to be fought out with Johnsson and Kapanen, although Johnsson may be too small for the role.

I am not really a fan of this. To me you have to keep Rielly with Marner. There was a good Athletic article a year and a half ago or so showing why LHD Rielly and RHW Marner worked so well together, with pass after pass from Rielly that wouldn't have worked if he was RH.

On the other hand, putting Matthews and Nylander on their off-wings has failed in the past. People want the one-timer from Matthews, but he doesn't need it. He can play on the left side, get the puck and fire it amazingly fast and accurate. Putting Barrie on this unit would allow both RHW and RHD Nylander and Barrie to give a double royal road pass threat - Barrie is one of the few D I have seen who can do that well, and I don't think that has been a D in the league who makes high danger shot assists at a frequency higher than Barrie over the last 4 or 5 years. This would allow the Leafs to set up the same kind of PP as teams like Washington and Colorado have done - with Matthews the shooter in the same location as Ovi and MacKinnon and two passers (Barrie and Nylander) and while, unlike MacKinnon and Ovi, Matthews wouldn't be one-timing it because Matthews is a left shot (while Mac and Ovi are right), Matthews can still get the shot off really quick - and - he can disguise the shot - which the one-timers can't.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

While you are complaining about others dropping how much they value Barrie because he is now a Leaf, has your own position changed on Barrie vs Gardiner changed now that Barrie is a Leaf.

I think after 17/18, it was pretty reasonable to prefer Gardiner.
5v5 numbers:
Gardiner - 1.21 p/60 | 56 gf% | 51.3 xgf% | 28.2 QoT | 29.1 QoC
Barrie: 1.14 p/60 | 52 gf% | 42.3 xgf% | 28 QoT | 28.8 QoC

After this year, I'd go with Barrie. Especially post-injury for Gardiner

 

[MyBudJT]

Yes, the Leafs also had this in 2016/17 when both units played almost the exact same.



I am not really a fan of this. To me you have to keep Rielly with Marner. There was a good Athletic article a year and a half ago or so showing why LHD Rielly and RHW Marner worked so well together, with pass after pass from Rielly that wouldn't have worked if he was RH.

On the other hand, putting Matthews and Nylander on their off-wings has failed in the past. People want the one-timer from Matthews, but he doesn't need it. He can play on the left side, get the puck and fire it amazingly fast and accurate. Putting Barrie on this unit would allow both RHW and RHD Nylander and Barrie to give a double royal road pass threat - Barrie is one of the few D I have seen who can do that well, and I don't think that has been a D in the league who makes high danger shot assists at a frequency higher than Barrie over the last 4 or 5 years. This would allow the Leafs to set up the same kind of PP as teams like Washington and Colorado have done - with Matthews the shooter in the same location as Ovi and MacKinnon and two passers (Barrie and Nylander) and while, unlike MacKinnon and Ovi, Matthews wouldn't be one-timing it because Matthews is a left shot (while Mac and Ovi are right), Matthews can still get the shot off really quick - and - he can disguise the shot - which the one-timers can't.

Fair enough, I'd be happy switching Kerfoot-Rielly and Barrie-Muzzin.

 

[zeke]

While you are complaining about others dropping how much they value Barrie because he is now a Leaf, has your own position changed on Barrie vs Gardiner changed now that Barrie is a Leaf.

Jake's such a frustrating player. Barrie is a better offensive weapon, while jake has the better defensive impact.....but then sabotages himself with bonehead plays.

Jake's really good. Though the injured jake at the end of the year isn't nearly as big a loss.

One for one it's a bit of a sideways move - except for us it's a much better fit, as Barrie is upgrading our top pair now in a huge way, while jake was stuck on the bottom pair.

 

[zeke]

View attachment 250161

nice!

 

[biotk]

you think? seems to me that most every team stacks their top unit, and always has.

They do. But I don't care what most teams do. I care what works best for the teams I cheer for.

Stacking the PP1 is an easy path of least resistance - you give your best players what they want. Can you imagine what Ovi would think about getting 50% of Caps PP time? I can't imagine how Lemieux would have reacted either. But that doesn't mean that it gets the best results - if you have enough really good players to make two good units - I don't think that a team in the league can match 6 players as offensively gifted as Barrie, Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Rielly and Tavares.

Leafs GF/60 on the PP:

2016/17 - 8.68 - 2nd in the NHL
2017/18 - 9.47 - 2nd in the NHL
2018/19 - 7.73 - 9th in the NHL <<--- worse

I am sure that Leafs' coaching and management have noticed this.

They also allowed more goals against while on the PP last year than they did during the previous two seasons combined, which also seems to be more prevalent among teams that leave their stacked PP1s out there for a long time when they start to tire (and often start the PP tired in the first place).

 

[zeke]

They do. But I don't care what most teams do. I care what works best for the teams I cheer for.

Stacking the PP1 is an easy path of least resistance - you give your best players what they want. Can you imagine what Ovi would think about getting 50% of Caps PP time? I can't imagine how Lemieux would have reacted either. But that doesn't mean that it gets the best results.

Leafs GF/60 on the PP:

2016/17 - 8.68 - 2nd in the NHL
2017/18 - 9.47 - 2nd in the NHL
2018/19 - 7.73 - 9th in the NHL <<--- worse

I am sure that Leafs' coaching and management have noticed this.

They also allowed more goals against while on the PP last year than they did during the previous two seasons combined, which also seems to be more prevalent among teams that leave their stacked PP1s out there for a long time when they start to tire (and often start the PP tired in the first place).

That's an interesting last point there - giving up goals on the PP with a tired unit.

and you're right that the PP was worse last year - and there's no doubt that part of that was due to stacking the top unit.

but I think there's probably a better explanation - the whole point of stacking the top unit is to play them much more than the 2nd unit. But despite stacking the top unit, Babcock still split the time more evenly than most any other team in the league - which means that a much inferior 2nd unit was getting far too much PP time.

 

[zeke]

Jake's such a frustrating player. Barrie is a better offensive weapon, while jake has the better defensive impact.....but then sabotages himself with bonehead plays.

Jake's really good. Though the injured jake at the end of the year isn't nearly as big a loss.

One for one it's a bit of a sideways move - except for us it's a much better fit, as Barrie is upgrading our top pair now in a huge way, while jake was stuck on the bottom pair.

just want to add that while one for one it may not be a huge upgrade personnel wise, that doesn't mean our defense (if healthy) isn't significantly upgraded from last year.

Our defense for the majority of the year last year was:

Rielly - Hainsey
Jake - Zaitsev
Dermott - Ozhiganov

when we finally added Muzzin to really upgrade the defense, both Jake and Dermott got injured, and when they returned were shadows of themselves. Not to mention our coach refused to remove either of Hainsey or Zaitsev from the big minute pairings, even though they were our #5 an #6 dmen.

If we had actually had a healthy Dcorps last year looking like:

Muzzin - Rielly
Jake - Dermott
Hainsey - Zaitsev

then I wouldn't think our defense was significantly upgraded this year.

But we never had anything close to that defense corps last year, I don't think.

 

[hotpaws]

Wasn't this the quote?


Seems Zeke's response is completely logical

Except Zeek would have posted a per/60 stat like he usually does if it supported his opinion .