How many goals for Ovechkin this season?

[wetcoast]

Better distribution how?

Last year I was listening to some analytic guys on a local program here in Vancouver and they were taking about shots taken by EP40 in the bumper spot and as a % of shots taken on the PP by Vancouver it was in the low 30% range while for Ovi it was 37%..

The eye test also shows that Ovi doesn't handle the puck very long at all on the PP and isn't very creative anymore that makes the PP way too predictable and much easier to scout for and defend.

Detroit for basically a decade in the 90s and early part of this century were much more spread the PP around and they had very good success with it.

 

[pld459666]

Still expecting 30-40+

 

[MikeFolignosHelmet]

12 goals before a possible season ending injury

 

[BallardEra]

Last year I was listening to some analytic guys on a local program here in Vancouver and they were taking about shots taken by EP40 in the bumper spot and as a % of shots taken on the PP by Vancouver it was in the low 30% range while for Ovi it was 37%..

The eye test also shows that Ovi doesn't handle the puck very long at all on the PP and isn't very creative anymore that makes the PP way too predictable and much easier to scout for and defend.

Detroit for basically a decade in the 90s and early part of this century were much more spread the PP around and they had very good success with it.

Their PP was very bad after Carlson got hurt because teams had to respect his shot while he was playing. Oshie is always hurt and there are really no other real threats. Kuznetsov had a poor season and Backstrom might be cooked.

Curious to see what Carberry and the new staff will change with the PP in terms of different wrinkles.

 

[saffronleaf]

i want 50

 

[HTFN]

Last year I was listening to some analytic guys on a local program here in Vancouver and they were taking about shots taken by EP40 in the bumper spot and as a % of shots taken on the PP by Vancouver it was in the low 30% range while for Ovi it was 37%..

The eye test also shows that Ovi doesn't handle the puck very long at all on the PP and isn't very creative anymore that makes the PP way too predictable and much easier to scout for and defend.

Detroit for basically a decade in the 90s and early part of this century were much more spread the PP around and they had very good success with it.

Eye test is wrong, problem is missing Backstrom (and later Carlson). Ovechkin's regularly (and creatively) getting to soft scoring areas, the problem is when the Capitals don't have a guy who can work the wall anymore. Backstrom has arguably been the league's best for over a decade, knows and runs the unit about as well as it can be done. Kuznetsov just isn't as good at it, doesn't mesh stylistically and has a less subtle touch. Losing Oshie rarely helps either, because he's the best bumper guy on the team.

Caps PP went off at like 33% for a while after Backstrom returned. What you're asking is for Ovechkin to just absorb the loss of most of the first unit...

 

[wetcoast]

Eye test is wrong, problem is missing Backstrom (and later Carlson). Ovechkin's regularly (and creatively) getting to soft scoring areas, the problem is when the Capitals don't have a guy who can work the wall anymore. Backstrom has arguably been the league's best for over a decade, knows and runs the unit about as well as it can be done. Kuznetsov just isn't as good at it, doesn't mesh stylistically and has a less subtle touch. Losing Oshie rarely helps either, because he's the best bumper guy on the team.

Caps PP went off at like 33% for a while after Backstrom returned. What you're asking is for Ovechkin to just absorb the loss of most of the first unit...

That would be great if I was talking about last year in isolation but it was pretty much the same thing in 21-22 and in 20-21 where Ovi missed 11of the 56 games the capitals were well above average on the PP.

We will see the trend of the last 2 years continue if they keep Ovi as their entire focal point on the PP.

 

[HTFN]

That would be great if I was talking about last year in isolation but it was pretty much the same thing in 21-22 and in 20-21 where Ovi missed 11of the 56 games the capitals were well above average on the PP.

We will see the trend of the last 2 years continue if they keep Ovi as their entire focal point on the PP.

absolutely none of that sounds like it disproves anything I said at all

Losing Ovechkin is a very small sample with one very big impact: the PP changes looks by default. Nobody else is going to Ovechkin's spot because nobody else can shoot like him, so they don't do it. Why does that matter? Because it does definitely make them more unpredictable in the short term, but if you had a whole season of it nobody would be surprised anymore and a lot of these new looks would be erased.

Backstrom getting progressively less healthy pre-surgery is a bigger problem, and it's that combined with other PP1 injuries that do way more to pull the unit down than trying to get the puck to the best goal scorer of all time. The guy with the shot goalies say moves impossibly and is difficult to stop even when you know it's coming? Ovechkin's shot is not one you opt to take fewer of if you want to win.

Seriously, what you're noticing (without realizing you're noticing it) is that Backstrom has been that good as a PPQB. When he breaks down or goes missing, teams get more comfortable pressuring the replacement QB on the half wall because Backstrom creates so much space for himself that the PP is kind of used to it. When he's not there to look guys off and make them hesitate the puck stays mucked up on the RW boards a lot longer and gets cleared more often, and all the creativity in the world isn't going to help the LW do something about that. His only two jobs are "be open" and "stop the puck if it comes around the boards".

And don't even get me started on Carlson and the f***ing slingshot. When the Caps are failing regularly with the powerplay, like they were this year, it's because they can't even enter the zone and get established, not because they're cheating for Ovechkin shots and just not converting.

 

[wetcoast]

absolutely none of that sounds like it disproves anything I said at all

Losing Ovechkin is a very small sample with one very big impact: the PP changes looks by default. Nobody else is going to Ovechkin's spot because nobody else can shoot like him, so they don't do it. Why does that matter? Because it does definitely make them more unpredictable in the short term, but if you had a whole season of it nobody would be surprised anymore and a lot of these new looks would be erased.

Backstrom getting progressively less healthy pre-surgery is a bigger problem, and it's that combined with other PP1 injuries that do way more to pull the unit down than trying to get the puck to the best goal scorer of all time. The guy with the shot goalies say moves impossibly and is difficult to stop even when you know it's coming? Ovechkin's shot is not one you opt to take fewer of if you want to win.

You are probably right with Backstrom but he often gets under rated or ignored when Malkin comes up from a few select voters.

My point is that even with Ovechkins shot the Capitals PP doesn't really do that much better than other PP in the league even when everything is firing on all cylinders and watching Ovi on the PP the last couple of years is watching a guy who can still shot and score goals but nothing like a superstar given the # of shots and time on the PP and that's my main point it's not a good strategy.

Seriously, what you're noticing (without realizing you're noticing it) is that Backstrom has been that good as a PPQB. When he breaks down or goes missing, teams get more comfortable pressuring the replacement QB on the half wall because Backstrom creates so much space for himself that the PP is kind of used to it. When he's not there to look guys off and make them hesitate the puck stays mucked up on the RW boards a lot longer and gets cleared more often, and all the creativity in the world isn't going to help the LW do something about that. His only two jobs are "be open" and "stop the puck if it comes around the boards".

And don't even get me started on Carlson and the f***ing slingshot. When the Caps are failing regularly with the powerplay, like they were this year, it's because they can't even enter the zone and get established, not because they're cheating for Ovechkin shots and just not converting.

We are going to disagree on this but the point should also be moot as the Capitals are primed for a major rebuild the goals record is muddling that fact.

It's also very easy to defend the Capitals gaining the zone because of Ovechkin limited involvement in the play aside from shooting which minimizes the impact of having the extra guy out there.

 

[HTFN]

You are probably right with Backstrom but he often gets under rated or ignored when Malkin comes up from a few select voters.

My point is that even with Ovechkins shot the Capitals PP doesn't really do that much better than other PP in the league even when everything is firing on all cylinders and watching Ovi on the PP the last couple of years is watching a guy who can still shot and score goals but nothing like a superstar given the # of shots and time on the PP and that's my main point it's not a good strategy.




We are going to disagree on this but the point should also be moot as the capitals are primed for a major rebuild the goals record is muddling that fact.

They literally created the modern 1-3-1 and bumper role and maintained the best PP in the league for like a decade. So yeah, they're getting older and injured and the rest of the league is finally catching up, but that's kind of ignoring how many years of this being a perfectly acceptable, borderline unstoppable plan?

Your point is that now they're not much different from average, but again ignoring that Backstrom has been a husk (or simply not playing). Lose your PPQB and tell me it won't hurt, on average. It's the easiest thing in the world to say they should do something different and provide no alternatives, I'd love to hear how the Caps would be better and score more by giving Ovechkin fewer shots so that... an unnamed somebody can score more frequently than the best to do it.

You're choosing to agree to disagree with the person who watched their games this year so that you can trust your own casual eye test, because it says what you want it to say. The Caps' PP zone entries were f***ing awful this year, period, full stop. Coupled with missing a lot of the first unit, it's just no surprise they weren't leading the league this year.

 

[wetcoast]

They literally created the modern 1-3-1 and bumper role and maintained the best PP in the league for like a decade. So yeah, they're getting older and injured and the rest of the league is finally catching up, but that's kind of ignoring how many years of this being a perfectly acceptable, borderline unstoppable plan?

Your point is that now they're not much different from average, but again ignoring that Backstrom has been a husk (or simply not playing). Lose your PPQB and tell me it won't hurt, on average. It's the easiest thing in the world to say they should do something different and provide no alternatives, I'd love to hear how the Caps would be better and score more by giving Ovechkin fewer shots so that... an unnamed somebody can score more frequently than the best to do it.

You're choosing to agree to disagree with the person who watched their games this year so that you can trust your own casual eye test, because it says what you want it to say. The Caps' PP zone entries were f***ing awful this year, period, full stop. Coupled with missing a lot of the first unit, it's just no surprise they weren't leading the league this year.

Who knows maybe you are right and Backstrom was more the glue and key to the PP than Ovi was.

Backstrom seems done but maybe he can bounce back?

My point is that Ovi hasn't been a difference maker for the last couple of years on the PP and that's not going to change now.

As for their not having anyone else for that spot it's not like they didn't know Ovi was going to age they put all of there eggs into the Ovi basket when they resigned him (and Backstom, Kuz, Oshie ect)...and haven't drafted or developed players well enough in the last decade.

 

[HTFN]

Who knows maybe you are right and Backstrom was more the glue and key to the PP than Ovi was.

Backstrom seems done but maybe he can bounce back?

My point is that Ovi hasn't been a difference maker for the last couple of years on the PP and that's not going to change now.

As for their not having anyone else for that spot it's not like they didn't know Ovi was going to age they put all of there eggs into the Ovi basket when they resigned him (and Backstom, Kuz, Oshie ect...and haven't drafted or developed players well enough in the last decade.

oh man, you literally don't know what you're talking about and keep doubling down. alright bud.

 

[wetcoast]

oh man, you literally don't know what you're talking about and keep doubling down. alright bud.

What exactly is wrong with my current observation please tell?

 

[Musampa]

35-40

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

There's really no way to predict it. He defies the odds every year. I agree with others saying it will likely be about 40.

 

[HTFN]

What exactly is wrong with my current observation please tell?

I mean, it took far too many words just to convince you that maybe Backstrom might be important to the PP, I'm not going to waste any more time with somebody who is coming into this with an axe to grind and not willing to be open.

 

[wetcoast]

I mean, it took far too many words just to convince you that maybe Backstrom might be important to the PP, I'm not going to waste any more time with somebody who is coming into this with an axe to grind and not willing to be open.

That's fine but I'm still taking that he isn't getting another top 10 in goals, let's see how it plays out shall we?

 

[lionsDen]

A bunch

 

[TJHKY]

I will go with 40, Broke his own record for most 40 goals seasons

 

[Toby91ca]

Last year I was listening to some analytic guys on a local program here in Vancouver and they were taking about shots taken by EP40 in the bumper spot and as a % of shots taken on the PP by Vancouver it was in the low 30% range while for Ovi it was 37%..

The eye test also shows that Ovi doesn't handle the puck very long at all on the PP and isn't very creative anymore that makes the PP way too predictable and much easier to scout for and defend.

Detroit for basically a decade in the 90s and early part of this century were much more spread the PP around and they had very good success with it.

It's been this way for a long, long time though.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

40+ if healthy.

Combination of being the best goal scorer ever and staying healthy.

It also might help that the sole purpose is for him to score a billion goals.

 

[Drake1588]

If he's healthy, I'd take the over. They aren't going to have anything to play for except his goals record for the next couple of years. I think he plays 75-80 games and hits 50. The Caps are healthier but miss the playoffs anyway, a middling team until he retires and they rebuild in earnest.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

I'll say more than a handful but less than a boatload.

 

[wetcoast]

It's been this way for a long, long time though.

Yes but every year father time shows more of himself it happens to every player.

It's going to happen to Crosby , McDavid everyone.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I think he scores 36 goals this season.