How are you feeling about Tavares these days?

[Dekes For Days]

back then... players had to wait for their 3rd contract to strike it big.

Players have always been paid when they performed to an elite level as kids.

Would it be time to move on from Kadri if his 3rd playoff suspension in a row had of all happened in Toronto?
Management had to move on from him… it’s a shame because Kadri was likely going to spend his whole career here in Toronto.

Yeah, the funniest part is that even if we did keep Kadri after his 2nd playoff suspension, he would have just lost value before we were forced to trade him after his 3rd playoff suspension. So we would have sabotaged another playoffs, lowered his return value, and still not benefited from his one fluke year.

How do we know if the players switched teams their points totals would not also switch?

They likely would, but people here refuse to acknowledge how playoff points are externally impacted, and the issues with direct comparisons.

I mean being 9th in points among all Dmen in the previous 3 season combined + playing 21:47 of ice time is top pairing. Tyson Barrie was in the 17 min range in EVTOI same as Cale Makar is today he just didn't kill penalties. not all top pairing Dmen do that. Erik Karlsson comes to mind heck Dougie Hamilton who you just mentioned as a top pair doesn't kill penalties.

He was also coming off an excellent playoffs. There's an abundance of revisionist history when it comes to Barrie and that trade.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

how did you come up with Willie at 5m x 8yrs? The comps including Ehlers who signed a yr earlier at 6m x 7yrs had him at low to mid 6's depending on a term around 6 yrs

as far as Marner goes , the rumor was he wanted 8.5m x 8yrs but according to his agent Dubas was low balling him

Dubies plan after signing JT was to try to force the kids to sign undermarket deals to compensate for overpaying Johnny and that's when he started his ''we vs me'' months long media campaign .

and top end players didn't have to wait until there 3rd deal to cash in but they were giving max term , McDavid and Eichel were the perfect comps for AM , they signed for 12.5 and 10 respectively over 8yrs , Dubas giving AM 8yr money at 5 yrs shifted the marketplace

I disagree with the bolded.

Dubas just wanted the young core signed AT market value. But he failed to do that.

Nylander held out for a more player friendly version of the Pastrnak contract, but he wasn't then, now, or ever a comparable to Pastrnak. That was an L for Dubas.

Matthews had a career high of 69 points and fitted in between Eichel and McDavid at EIGHT years, not 5 (as you pointed out). Another L for Dubas.

Marner deserved slightly more than Aho and not a penny more (probably even less) than Rantanen. And we saw how that played out....

The core were significantly overpaid based on direct comparables at time of signing.

And the probable cause for all of it was the Tavares contract. It f***ed our internal cap structure up, big time. But I entirely disagree that Dubas was looking for "deals" on the young core. He just wanted fair market value. And the rookie who had no idea what he was doing was unable to get that.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I disagree with the bolded.

Dubas just wanted the young core signed AT market value. But he failed to do that.

Nylander held out for a more player friendly version of the Pastrnak contract, but he wasn't then, now, or ever a comparable to Pastrnak. That was an L for Dubas.

Matthews had a career high of 69 points and fitted in between Eichel and McDavid at EIGHT years, not 5 (as you pointed out). Another L for Dubas.

Marner deserved slightly more than Aho and not a penny more (probably even less) than Rantanen. And we saw how that played out....

The core were significantly overpaid based on direct comparables at time of signing.

And the probable cause for all of it was the Tavares contract. It f***ed our internal cap structure up, big time. But I entirely disagree that Dubas was looking for "deals" on the young core. He just wanted fair market value. And the rookie who had no idea what he was doing was unable to get that.

The Tavares contract should have had the effect of getting all of those players for LESS than Tavares.

Basically "you are not getting within $500k of Tavares money. He's a vet, the captian, was a UFA"

But that hardball wasn't thrown.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If we went back to the summer of 2018 and someone from the future told us "By half way through the 6th year of his contract, here are his career averages as a leaf. 34 goals/82 and 80 points/82. Are we happy with that?"

I believe most of us back then would have said "f*** YEAH!!!!" We'd likely be ecstatic. At the time, how many leafs had even broken 70 points over the past ten years? Kessel twice? Anybody else?

So yeah, we'd be very happy with those numbers. The problem is and always has been that Dubas gave out unprecedented dramatic overpayments to the young core. That IS the problem. That IS the reality for why this team doesn't succeed. And many of us called it out the second those contracts were penned.

I still maintain, Tavares was a HORRIBLE signing and ruined the entire 7 years of his term. But not because of the contract itself. Because of how the agents of the young core were able to use it to leverage the baby rookie infant gm that mlse put in place.

 

[Twowingcantfly]

A couple times on here Kadri has been said to have one fluke year. Beg to differ. He has earned his pay/accolades every step along the way. Some of you as well as Leaf management/media underestimated his value. Kadri has been a winner all the way through junior and the pro ranks. Heck this guy was criticized by the media as being too cute with the puck, when he was making plays. He gets hacked numerous times. No call by the reffs and no one stood up for him. When he stood up for himself, he is the bad guy. In Colorado Kadri made teams pay for shutting down McKinnon and the first line. This home bred has been the unsung hero time and again. Like I said before. I watch all the games all the time. He has accomplished so much more than this 77 Million dollar signing gaff by MLSE..

 

[JL17]

The Tavares contract should have had the effect of getting all of those players for LESS than Tavares.

Basically "you are not getting within $500k of Tavares money. He's a vet, the captian, was a UFA"

But that hardball wasn't thrown.

I think you could play that game if it’s a UFA you signed that had a cup or 2 and multiple 100 point seasons and a Hart trophy. But Tavares had none of that.

 

[hotpaws]

I disagree with the bolded.

Dubas just wanted the young core signed AT market value. But he failed to do that.

Nylander held out for a more player friendly version of the Pastrnak contract, but he wasn't then, now, or ever a comparable to Pastrnak. That was an L for Dubas.

Matthews had a career high of 69 points and fitted in between Eichel and McDavid at EIGHT years, not 5 (as you pointed out). Another L for Dubas.

Marner deserved slightly more than Aho and not a penny more (probably even less) than Rantanen. And we saw how that played out....

The core were significantly overpaid based on direct comparables at time of signing.

And the probable cause for all of it was the Tavares contract. It f***ed our internal cap structure up, big time. But I entirely disagree that Dubas was looking for "deals" on the young core. He just wanted fair market value. And the rookie who had no idea what he was doing was unable to get that.

for months Dubas was in the media spewing his ''we vs me'' and all 3 of Shanny/Babs/Dubas were yapping about taking less and for them to sign deals that "fit"

if Dubas just wanted the kids to sign at market value he could have signed both Willie and Mitch in the summer , Mitch was reported to be looking for 8.5m x 8 yrs but Dubas according to Mitch's agent low balled him

I think you could play that game if it’s a UFA you signed that had a cup or 2 and multiple 100 point seasons and a Hart trophy. But Tavares had none of that.

you also can't play that game when your big money ufa is a much worse player than your star kids

 

[Menzinger]

The Kadri stuff is interesting. Always liked him as a player, but calling a guy who got suspended in 3 playoff series (in a row?) dependable is certainly an interesting take.

This threads discussion also ignores that he faced some fairly severe internal team punishment due to off ice behavior that led to him being healthy scratched. The ol "Kadri is super reliable" line doesn't hold up to much scrutiny - even though I still really like him as a player

The Kadri trade in retrospect ended up being awful. I think a good case can be made they should have just kept him, but you can also make an equally strong case they should have just gotten a better return for him.

Probably should have targets a single, higher quality top 4 D man for him instead of getting clever in trying to do a 2-1 deal that soon involved a centre

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I think you could play that game if it’s a UFA you signed that had a cup or 2 and multiple 100 point seasons and a Hart trophy. But Tavares had none of that.

You're playing hindsight though.

Of course his last couple years were gonna be shit. That's how it works.

He's still ok just not worth maybe half his cap hit.......

That's fine.

I keep posting this around, but it's not a secret it's right there:

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Take a gander at all the players who are off the books after this season.

We're fine.

 

[Stephen]

The Tavares contract should have had the effect of getting all of those players for LESS than Tavares.

Basically "you are not getting within $500k of Tavares money. He's a vet, the captian, was a UFA"

But that hardball wasn't thrown.

That hardball was not available for the Leafs to ever be thrown. And I don’t say it in support of what Dubas did after.

The Matthews, Marner and Nylander core already took the Leafs to 2 playoff appearances. Something that hadn’t happened in about 15 years at that point. They were already on the Kane and Toews track, already attracted star veteran free agents to come. Had already been the faces of the franchise.

There was no scenario where Tavares could have pulled rank on these guys. The 2018-19 season were outscored Tavares while feeding him a career year? No chance you could tell the core Tavares was setting the salary bar.

 

[Gallagbi]

This threads discussion also ignores that he faced some fairly severe internal team punishment due to off ice behavior that led to him being healthy scratched. The ol "Kadri is super reliable" line doesn't hold up to much scrutiny - even though I still really like him as a player

The Kadri trade in retrospect ended up being awful. I think a good case can be made they should have just kept him, but you can also make an equally strong case they should have just gotten a better return for him.

Probably should have targets a single, higher quality top 4 D man for him instead of getting clever in trying to do a 2-1 deal that soon involved a centre

I think the reality is both parties needed to move on. Back to back PO suspensions, a very known reputation and a diminishing role.

I think teams, and Dubas in this case, need to get better at taking picks instead of pieces of the return isn't there. Use it as a placeholder and flip when it makes sense, or just use it.

 

[JL17]

for months Dubas was in the media spewing his ''we vs me'' and all 3 of Shanny/Babs/Dubas were yapping about taking less and for them to sign deals that "fit"

if Dubas just wanted the kids to sign at market value he could have signed both Willie and Mitch in the summer , Mitch was reported to be looking for 8.5m x 8 yrs but Dubas according to Mitch's agent low balled him


you also can't that game when your big money ufa is a much worse player than your star kids

That’s what I said.

 

[Stephen]

This threads discussion also ignores that he faced some fairly severe internal team punishment due to off ice behavior that led to him being healthy scratched. The ol "Kadri is super reliable" line doesn't hold up to much scrutiny - even though I still really like him as a player

The Kadri trade in retrospect ended up being awful. I think a good case can be made they should have just kept him, but you can also make an equally strong case they should have just gotten a better return for him.

Probably should have targets a single, higher quality top 4 D man for him instead of getting clever in trying to do a 2-1 deal that soon involved a centre

The Kadri trade is really a two part question of whether a team ever ought to make a “mandated trade” out of a scenario that doesn’t feel like it’s in their control. And whether the return was sufficient.

In hindsight there are scenarios where trading Kadri to Colorado could have made sense. Maybe we could have gotten a more futures oriented package back allowing us to go shop more aggressively for other stuff from another team. Or simply not have bet that one salary retained year on Barrie which felt like a moonshot. In the end I’d say the trade was clever for Toronto but not smart.

 

[JL17]

You're playing hindsight though.

Of course his last couple years were gonna be shit. That's how it works.

He's still ok just not worth maybe half his cap hit.......

That's fine.

I keep posting this around, but it's not a secret it's right there:

I’ve never liked the Tavares signing from day 1 and was never really impressed watching him in his time with the Knights. I’ve said it many times he’s not an 11 million dollar player not even close. If you look what I’ve had to say about him my stance has never changed. JT is like Phil Kessel good complimentary piece but don’t expect to win with him leading your team. Those guys don’t get paid 11 mil. I didn’t think he was even worth 10 maybe 8.5 based on what he showed in NYI.

 

[seanlinden]

The Tavares contract should have had the effect of getting all of those players for LESS than Tavares.

Basically "you are not getting within $500k of Tavares money. He's a vet, the captian, was a UFA"

But that hardball wasn't thrown.

Bingo.

They should have been negotiating with Marner starting JUNE 1st, 2018.

The position Dubas should have taken:

- You want Draisaitl's deal - $8.5m x 8. He put up 77 points while you put up 69. He scores more goals, he has more size, and that deal currently looks terrible as he regressed between year 2 and 3.

- But, the cap has gone up a bit, we believe in you, so let's agree that if Draisaitl was worth $8.5m x 8, you're worht $8.25m x 8.

- We want to swing for the fences and sign John Tavares. We view you & him together as linemates.

- However, to do it, is going to require a massive 7, maybe 8 year deal, as he is the most coveted UFA in a long time. We cannot do that deal without certainty as to what you're going to cost us. Everyone is going to have to take a little bit of a haircut so that we can add a premier veteran player without trading a substantial young piece to do it.

- So let's agree to sign something July 1 -- if we are successful in signing JT - your contract is $8m x 8. If he goes elsewhere, the pressure will be a little more on you, and we'll give you $8.25m x 8.

 

[hamzarocks]

Would Tavares return more rhan what Phaneuf got in 2016?

2nd + B- Prospect + 2 short term cap dumps

 

[Ports]

I don't think it matters in Willy's case, but that's the first I've heard of it. Where does the CBA reference that?

I’m not going to read through the CBA to find it but here’s a link to the contract on Cap Friendly.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I’ve never liked the Tavares signing from day 1 and was never really impressed watching him in his time with the Knights. I’ve said it many times he’s not an 11 million dollar player not even close. If you look what I’ve had to say about him my stance has never changed. JT is like Phil Kessel good complimentary piece but don’t expect to win with him leading your team. Those guys don’t get paid 11 mil. I didn’t think he was even worth 10 maybe 8.5 based on what he showed in NYI.

Wait........Tavares played for the Knights? (oh right. OHL. He also played for the Generals so kind of a fan)

Tavares and Kessel are not comparable..............Kessel has at least one, maybe more, Stanley Cups.

 

[seventieslord]

Would Tavares return more rhan what Phaneuf got in 2016?

2nd + B- Prospect + 2 short term cap dumps

WOW! I forgot Phaneuf had 5 years @ $7M left when we traded him. It's hard to believe we were able to move him at all. But it was really Phaneuf + nothing for nothing. It looked like a case of, "if you'll pay him, you can have him."

And though it's hard to predict exactly what we'd get for JT, I think the return would be pretty similar for an $11M player, playing like he's worth $4.5M. Think we'd just be happy to be rid of him.

 

[Buds17]

Would Tavares return more rhan what Phaneuf got in 2016?

2nd + B- Prospect + 2 short term cap dumps

It's really tough to speculate on what a trade return might look like due to the NMC. A team trying to contend should not have the same standards for a trade as a team trying to bottom out though (Phaneuf trade).

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Would Tavares return more rhan what Phaneuf got in 2016?

2nd + B- Prospect + 2 short term cap dumps

Tavares isn't going to wave his NTC. It's not going to happen.

And he's still a capable player, one more year with that cap hit. We can get by no problem so just leave it alone.

WOW! I forgot Phaneuf had 5 years @ $7M left when we traded him. It's hard to believe we were able to move him at all. But it was really Phaneuf + nothing for nothing. It looked like a case of, "if you'll pay him, you can have him."

And though it's hard to predict exactly what we'd get for JT, I think the return would be pretty similar for an $11M player, playing like he's worth $4.5M. Think we'd just be happy to be rid of him.

That was a Melnyk special (RIP) saved him actual money to take to his grave.

That's the only reason the Phaneuf trade happened.

 

[BallardEra]

How did he look tonight?

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

That hardball was not available for the Leafs to ever be thrown. And I don’t say it in support of what Dubas did after.

The Matthews, Marner and Nylander core already took the Leafs to 2 playoff appearances. Something that hadn’t happened in about 15 years at that point. They were already on the Kane and Toews track, already attracted star veteran free agents to come. Had already been the faces of the franchise.

There was no scenario where Tavares could have pulled rank on these guys. The 2018-19 season were outscored Tavares while feeding him a career year? No chance you could tell the core Tavares was setting the salary bar.

I'll let you be the insider with the insider agent info, I'm talking out my ass.

I also don't even want to go back to those days and talk about it. So I'll just show myself the door.

 

[hotpaws]

How did he look tonight?

-hung around the crease trying to bang in garbage
-got easily stripped any time he tried to carry the puck
-wasn't very noticeable

basically a typical Johnny game

 

[Larcos_Unal]

-hung around the crease trying to band it garbage
-got easily stripped any time he tried to carry the puck
-wasn't very noticeable

basically a typical Johnny game

He was also a key contributor in the PP going ice cold, give the man his full credit