Post-Game Talk: Holy Diver

[Larrybiv]

The helmet toss ended up being a major turning point. Trouba’s a decent captain after all.

You know, at the time it's not like he was playing all that well either. we all kind of believe he has been banged up since......way back when, during that period of time.
Regardless of his play, he at least gave a shit and it was unacceptable.
Of course, he had to ramp it up and play much better. Hell, he might have thrown the helmet even to get himself going along with his teammates. But for whatever the reason(s) it certainly WAS a turning point. Posted this obvious stuff yesterday.

11-10-5 Before Helmet
33-10-5 After helmet. That's 3x the amount of victories, Amazing.

 

[Raspewtin]

I understand the game has evolved. But it's still a game of preventing odd man rushes and covering the slot (keeping teams to the outside) and not turning over pucks in the neutral zone when you have 3 players on the wrong side of the puck. I think the Rangers have been getting bailed out by their goaltending. That can only last so long.

And i'm saying you're incorrect. There's nothing the Rangers are doing uniquely badly on the defensive end and they've gotten slightly above league average goaltending this year until very recently. Shesterkin is barely in the top half of goals saved above expected.

 

[Larrybiv]

good to see them step on a team. first was wide open but i mean this is not an easy game to get up for. the fact they came out and slammed the door shut is something not many ranger teams would have done, as recently as early in the year. have to be appreciative of that, they took care of business and now they're in position to play for something. home ice isn't a huge deal but you'd rather have it than not. adds something to the game thursday for sure, will be good to get a test like this, should be as close to playoff intensity as a non playoff game gets.


kids were awesome again. igor was great again. good to see kane get a nice one like that and he easily coulda had 2 or 3 more points. also a couple brutal pizzas but its columbus and he's showtime this is boring for him. other than that everyone did their job. this game was team really hung harpur out to dry tho huh?

Setting aside the fans, I would think home ice would be a distinct advantage in having that last line change to matchup WHOMEVER vs Hughes. Limiting him, increases our chances immensely. Also, we have TOO MANY players that need to be "checked". As good as they "seem to be", we should be overwhelming favorites. We're going to outclass them, crush them and send them DOWN to where their namesake lives.

 

[Larrybiv]

Been sick in my room with a stomach bug, have been sleeping all day, totally missed this game. But seems like they had a good game from the comments.

C'mon Leo, stick a sock in it and whip out some JD, and drink away. That'll help. We need you on top of your game.

 

[Peltz]

Pulling the goalie, down 3 with 4+ minutes left?

Tell me you're tanking without saying you're tanking.

Analytically it makes sense. You’re going to lose anyway, may as well go for a goal.

Even fans shouldn't mentally pick their opponents. I am guilty of it, and want to avoid NJ, but it just opens you up to pain and suffering. And the only thing that I will allow to cause me pain and suffering is a pint of ice cream while my lactose intolerance is in a particularly fascist mood.

This post was a roller coaster.

 

[Peltz]

Thursday will tell me everything I need to know about this group.

Tons of motivation to show up and play a strong game.

I want to see a repeat last year how they beat the penguins and Shesty waived “bye bye” and Kreider said “see you in the first round”.

Send a message to the Devils on Thursday.

 

[Fitzy]

Pulling the goalie ups your chances of scoring by a certain amount, and increases the chances of a goal against by a ton.

I don't know the exact averages, but my inclination tends to be that at a certain point you're better off statistically hoping for goals from even strength, rather than going from a small chance of victory to complete certain loss by allowing an empty netter with 4 minutes left.

I wouldn't pull the goalie when down by 1 goal until the minute mark. 2 goals down I wouldn't pull before 90 seconds. A power play actually makes me more conservative with goalie pulling- averages are like 21 percent, I don't want to rob that opportunity by getting greedy going to a 6 on 4 and risk immediate death from a long shot.

 

[bhamill]

Igor was the difference in the game. It could have been 5-3 Columbus after one. I lost count of the number of odd man rushes they gave up in the first 5 minutes. It seemed whenever the Zibanejad line was out there in the first, they were giving up 1 or 2 quality chances because they weren't playing defense. Also, I don't think they lock down teams in the third. They still give up a bunch of chances against good teams. I'm not too confident about holding a lead in the third against NJ or Carolina in the playoffs with the way the team plays defense.

Sure. but it also could have also been 5-2 NYR after the first. Hutchinson really buckled down after the first three goals. Igor is the better goalie, but that guy really came up big as well.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I understand the game has evolved. But it's still a game of preventing odd man rushes and covering the slot (keeping teams to the outside) and not turning over pucks in the neutral zone when you have 3 players on the wrong side of the puck. I think the Rangers have been getting bailed out by their goaltending. That can only last so long.

The NZ and high OZ turnovers ARE an issue and have been an issue for too long now. The difference lately has been that they're getting the saves that they weren't getting for the most part from Oct-Feb.

They haven't been getting those saves all year. If they had they'd be at the top of the division.

 

[Greg02]

Pulling the goalie ups your chances of scoring by a certain amount, and increases the chances of a goal against by a ton.

I don't know the exact averages, but my inclination tends to be that at a certain point you're better off statistically hoping for goals from even strength, rather than going from a small chance of victory to complete certain loss by allowing an empty netter with 4 minutes left.

I wouldn't pull the goalie when down by 1 goal until the minute mark. 2 goals down I wouldn't pull before 90 seconds. A power play actually makes me more conservative with goalie pulling- averages are like 21 percent, I don't want to rob that opportunity by getting greedy going to a 6 on 4 and risk immediate death from a long shot.

The NHL is a very data driven league. Coaches wouldn't be pulling their goalies early if there wasn't clear evidence from that one year Patrick Roy did it all the time that it works.

 

[bobbop]

This gets underrated. Especially at this time of year. Having easy games, makes time on ice management possible.

Managing time on ice entering the playoffs is huge. Keeping our stars fresh for the brutal playoff run will pay big dividends.

Zibad hasn't played more than 18 minutes in 8 of his last 10 games. He averages over 20 minutes for the year.

Panarin's last 20 minute performance was 10 games ago. Since then he had only 3 games just above 18 minutes. He too averages close to 20 minutes per game for the season.

Kreider has averaged 18:35 TOI for the season. In his last 10 games, only twice has he played more than 16 minutes.

The only one still putting in the time is Fox. Although he did get a break during the two shutout wins. He averages better than 24 minutes for the year. He will probably get a maintenance day sometime after we beat the Debbies.

Turk has been managing ice time like a real pro. Something you never saw Torts do.

If I could love a post…

For all the people who grouse about Gallant’s coaching, this is a great example of the things he does right. He is a players coach, he has his finger on the pulse of the team. The players love playing for him. No coach excels in all areas. That’s why you have a coaching staff With different skills. Gallant manages the big picture exceedingly well and let’s Kelly and Murphy handle the nuts and bolts.

 

[Fitzy]

The NHL is a very data driven league. Coaches wouldn't be pulling their goalies early if there wasn't clear evidence from that one year Patrick Roy did it all the time that it works.

 

[Machinehead]

The NHL is a very data driven league. Coaches wouldn't be pulling their goalies early if there wasn't clear evidence from that one year Patrick Roy did it all the time that it works.

That year was a massive outlier and there's no reason to believe it was anything more than variance.

In most years, pull time didn't correlate with goals scored at all.

You can see the year Roy was being Roy in purple. The other colors are every other year observed in this particular study from 2019, I believe. It's the only year 6v5 goal-scoring went up dramatically.

The only thing that has risen precipitously in the early-pull era is goals against, the instant death @Fitzy is referring to.

A study done by math professors at NYU came to the conclusion "the earlier the better" and like, no shit, the more time to score, the more likely you are to score. My criticism of the study is that it didn't seem to take into account goals against at all, which drop your win probably to basically zero with time remaining on the clock.

Let's consider the source here. Patrick Roy is a buffoon who couldn't get a second job coaching in the NHL. Even David Quinn got that.

It was always a last resort and should still be a last resort. Coaches are letting one year of data perpetuated by a terrible coach drag them around.

 

[Machinehead]

Also, I agree with Fitzy. The worst is when they do it already on the powerplay.

A run-of-the-mill powerplay converts about 20% of the time. A 5-on-3 only converts about 30% of the time. As much as we yell at the Rangers for f***ing them up, a two man advantage is not as great as we think it is.

Not to mention a 6v4 is a straight downgrade from a 5v3, so the conversion rate drops even more.

You're going to let teams have a free chuck at an empty net for 10%??? That's one extra goal every ten attempts.

As a last resort, sure. Not with two ass minutes left all of which will be on the powerplay.

 

[Greg02]

That year was a massive outlier and there's no reason to believe it was anything more than variance.

In most years, pull time didn't correlate with goals scored at all.

View attachment 678057

You can see the year Roy was being Roy in purple. The other colors are every other year observed in this particular study from 2019, I believe. It's the only year 6v5 goal-scoring went up dramatically.

The only thing that has risen precipitously in the early-pull era is goals against, the instant death @Fitzy is referring to.

A study done by math professors at NYU came to the conclusion "the earlier the better" and like, no shit, the more time to score, the more likely you are to score. My criticism of the study is that it didn't seem to take into account goals against at all, which drop your win probably to basically zero with time remaining on the clock.

Let's consider the source here. Patrick Roy is a buffoon who couldn't get a second job coaching in the NHL. Even David Quinn got that.

It was always a last resort and should still be a last resort. Coaches are letting one year of data perpetuated by a terrible coach drag them around.

I really thought "The NHL is a very data driven league" would give it away

 

[Leonardo87]

What’s up with the Holy Diver title? Was just curious. Lol.

 

[will1066]

Also, I agree with Fitzy. The worst is when they do it already on the powerplay.

A run-of-the-mill powerplay converts about 20% of the time. A 5-on-3 only converts about 30% of the time. As much as we yell at the Rangers for f***ing them up, a two man advantage is not as great as we think it is.

Not to mention a 6v4 is a straight downgrade from a 5v3, so the conversion rate drops even more.

You're going to let teams have a free chuck at an empty net for 10%??? That's one extra goal every ten attempts.

As a last resort, sure. Not with two ass minutes left all of which will be on the powerplay.

Is there any data on what the score was when the goalie was pulled? Score dependency is a factor, I think. The closer the score, the later the goalie gets pulled is my general guess. We joke around and like to think that bench bosses are dumb, but they're not. The coaches know what they're doing. If a coach pulls the goalie with 5 minutes to go down by three goals, the coach is going for broke. Also, psychological momentum is real. We've seen trailing teams actually tie the game after being down two goals because some teams can't hold a lead and get flustered after letting the opposition get a 6v5 goal to get within one.

What’s up with the Holy Diver title? Was just curious. Lol.

SCP (Some Columbus Player) crumpled at the touch of Panarin, and "holy dive" was initiated, followed by others who immediately noted the song Holy Diver.

 

[will1066]

I'm hearing on the wire that Gallant was actually pretty upset after the first period last night despite leading 3-2, exclaiming to his assistant coaches that the team unacceptably came out flatter than Keira Knightley.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Mikkola is legitimately a good player right now.

And above all, no injuries. Good game.

If he didn't handle the puck like a live grenade... man he would be good. But overall I have been super impressed with him.

 

[Doctyl]

This team is overtaking Jersey.

And this whole board was screeching that we’d miss the playoffs and should fire drury right after we lost a couple games around trading for Kane

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

And this whole board was screeching that we’d miss the playoffs and should fire drury right after we lost a couple games around trading for Kane

Whole board?

It was Snowblind, HireSather and RB who for what ever reason has become that guy.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I expect a big win on Thursday. Not sure how many of you have looked, Vanacek has been absolutely dreadful since March 1. Sub .900. They better rattle him. Crash the net. Make him super uncomfortable.

If we play this ticky tacky perimeter bullshit, it will not go well.

 

[will1066]

I expect a big win on Thursday. Not sure how many of you have looked, Vanacek has been absolutely dreadful since March 1. Sub .900. They better rattle him. Crash the net. Make him super uncomfortable.

If we play this ticky tacky perimeter bullshit, it will not go well.

One of these things will come true.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

What’s up with the Holy Diver title? Was just curious. Lol.

I didn't get it either lol.

 

[Leonardo87]

I didn't get it either lol.

I was out of it yesterday. Just trying to catch up. lol