Post-Game Talk: Holy Diver

[Jackson Ranger]

because they're not bad defensively. I see why we think that but the game has dramatically evolved the last three years. The game has gotten even faster over night and overall speed has dramatically increased so every night even the best D are looking stupid.

Regarding the Rangers, they're in the top half of the league in all defensive metrics and that's with having the worst 3rd pair in the league.

Where are you getting the data? I looked on Moneypuck and the stats of yielding low, mid and hi danger shots 5 on 5, Boston and Carolina were the best of the 8 Eastern playoff teams. The Rangers, Toronto and NJ were in the middle of the pack and the NYI, TB and Pitt were more towards the bottom of the group. I'm surprised the Rangers are that high, thank you for pointing that out. I think that goes to what you said previously about the game changing. I would have thought the Rangers, Toronto and NJ would have been on the low end.

 

[TominNC]

So, about that "trap" game.

This is a good team. Teams don't play great for 60 minutes. Igor lets us survive the ugly parts. Then our talent takes over. That CAN work in the playoffs.

 

[mandiblesofdoom]

If he didn't handle the puck like a live grenade... man he would be good. But overall I have been super impressed with him.

He screwed up on the very first chance against last night. Columbus on the rush. Fox was engaged with one of them. Somehow, rather than staying in his lane, Mikkola came over to Fox's side, which left Mikkola's half of the ice vacant & allowed a Blue Jacket to stroll in unmolested for a golden opportunity.

 

[JCProdigy]

Nah, nothing can get Dio down.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I expect a big win on Thursday. Not sure how many of you have looked, Vanacek has been absolutely dreadful since March 1. Sub .900. They better rattle him. Crash the net. Make him super uncomfortable.

If we play this ticky tacky perimeter bullshit, it will not go well.

They need to come out and play them the same way they played Calgary right after the ASB.

 

[Kovalev27]

I don't see how a team that plays this bad defensively is so good?! But I guess a W is a W. I don't see how these flaws will get better by the playoffs. I'll be at the game tomorrow, hopefully they can play some defense against a team that is dangerous offensively.

Do you watch other teams play? We’re like 4th in goals against aren’t we? Everyone gives up tons of chances. Even Carolina has looked bad at times defensively against us.

We’re not bad defensively at all.

 

[Kovalev27]

And this whole board was screeching that we’d miss the playoffs and should fire drury right after we lost a couple games around trading for Kane

Easy with that whole board pen you’re using.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Easy with that whole board pen you’re using.

He isn't wrong. While it is definitely painting with a broad brush, I also don't believe the brush is that narrow. I can think of at least 10 people who were convinced this team was going to end up outside the playoff race.

 

[New York RKY]

He isn't wrong. While it is definitely painting with a broad brush, I also don't believe the brush is that narrow. I can think of at least 10 people who were convinced this team was going to end up outside the playoff race.

And they all go into hiding when the Rangers are winning lol.

 

[bobbop]

That year was a massive outlier and there's no reason to believe it was anything more than variance.

In most years, pull time didn't correlate with goals scored at all.

View attachment 678057

You can see the year Roy was being Roy in purple. The other colors are every other year observed in this particular study from 2019, I believe. It's the only year 6v5 goal-scoring went up dramatically.

The only thing that has risen precipitously in the early-pull era is goals against, the instant death @Fitzy is referring to.

A study done by math professors at NYU came to the conclusion "the earlier the better" and like, no shit, the more time to score, the more likely you are to score. My criticism of the study is that it didn't seem to take into account goals against at all, which drop your win probably to basically zero with time remaining on the clock.

Let's consider the source here. Patrick Roy is a buffoon who couldn't get a second job coaching in the NHL. Even David Quinn got that.

It was always a last resort and should still be a last resort. Coaches are letting one year of data perpetuated by a terrible coach drag them around.

Go tell that to the Minnesota Wild

 

[kovazub94]

If he didn't handle the puck like a live grenade... man he would be good. But overall I have been super impressed with him.

I'm more concern about him freely leaving the crease / around the goal area when it's not only not needed but downright unnecessarily risky / detrimental.

 

[Jackson Ranger]

Do you watch other teams play? We’re like 4th in goals against aren’t we? Everyone gives up tons of chances. Even Carolina has looked bad at times defensively against us.

We’re not bad defensively at all.

I do watch other games. I'd say a lot of the 4th in goals against is because of the Rangers goaltending and when we play non-playoff teams, we have a lot more puck possession, which helps the defensive numbers. I'd rather play defense like Boston or Dallas than the way they are playing right now.

 

[kovazub94]

That year was a massive outlier and there's no reason to believe it was anything more than variance.

In most years, pull time didn't correlate with goals scored at all.

View attachment 678057

You can see the year Roy was being Roy in purple. The other colors are every other year observed in this particular study from 2019, I believe. It's the only year 6v5 goal-scoring went up dramatically.

The only thing that has risen precipitously in the early-pull era is goals against, the instant death @Fitzy is referring to.

A study done by math professors at NYU came to the conclusion "the earlier the better" and like, no shit, the more time to score, the more likely you are to score. My criticism of the study is that it didn't seem to take into account goals against at all, which drop your win probably to basically zero with time remaining on the clock.

Let's consider the source here. Patrick Roy is a buffoon who couldn't get a second job coaching in the NHL. Even David Quinn got that.

It was always a last resort and should still be a last resort. Coaches are letting one year of data perpetuated by a terrible coach drag them around.

For those of you who enjoy gambling it would be a VERY good bet to take on OVER with 5 minutes left and the goal difference of 2 or less.

 

[Peltz]

Also, I agree with Fitzy. The worst is when they do it already on the powerplay.

A run-of-the-mill powerplay converts about 20% of the time. A 5-on-3 only converts about 30% of the time. As much as we yell at the Rangers for f***ing them up, a two man advantage is not as great as we think it is.

Not to mention a 6v4 is a straight downgrade from a 5v3, so the conversion rate drops even more.

You're going to let teams have a free chuck at an empty net for 10%??? That's one extra goal every ten attempts.

As a last resort, sure. Not with two ass minutes left all of which will be on the powerplay.

Eh.. I’d rather play to win and pull the goalie early rather than play it conservatively because I’m afraid of losing by more goals. Kind of like how the best teams go for it on 4th down even when they don’t need to in football. It’s an attitude thing.

Having confidence in your guys and giving them an extra skater to increase the chances of getting a goal is a good thing. If the other team scores, so be it. At least you were assertive with your choice.

Specifically, I’m talking about being down by more than 1 goal though. I wouldn’t do this if it’s a 1 goal game.

 

[Grifter3511]

I do watch other games. I'd say a lot of the 4th in goals against is because of the Rangers goaltending and when we play non-playoff teams, we have a lot more puck possession, which helps the defensive numbers. I'd rather play defense like Boston or Dallas than the way they are playing right now.

But up until a few weeks ago, the majority (not the entirety) of this board seemed to feel that we were winning games in spite of our goaltending. Igor did look quite pedestrian for a good chunk of the season. We also aren't the only team playing non-playoff teams. Every team is doing so, and benefiting from the soft matchups.

I live out in Vancouver and see a lot of canucks games. Thank god, our defense looks nothing like theirs (although they have been improving as of late). Yes, Canucks are a terrible barometer, but I'd argue, as mentioned above, our defense is pretty solid overall and the breakdowns and chances we see are due to the pace and style of today's game and are just as apparent, if not more so, in most other team's games. They definitely are in the Canucks case.

 

[Machinehead]

Eh.. I’d rather play to win and pull the goalie early rather than play it conservatively because I’m afraid of losing by more goals. Kind of like how the best teams go for it on 4th down even when they don’t need to in football. It’s an attitude thing.

Having confidence in your guys and giving them an extra skater to increase the chances of getting a goal is a good thing. If the other team scores, so be it. At least you were assertive with your choice.

Pulling your goalie with 2+ minutes left is like going for it on 4th and 35 from your own 10, down 7, with 2 minutes left, when you have all 3 timeouts.

For those of you who enjoy gambling it would be a VERY good bet to take on OVER with 5 minutes left and the goal difference of 2 or less.

Big time.

One of the idiots is about to play without a goaltender.

 

[Peltz]

He isn't wrong. While it is definitely painting with a broad brush, I also don't believe the brush is that narrow. I can think of at least 10 people who were convinced this team was going to end up outside the playoff race.

Maybe back in November. Not at the TDL.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I do watch other games. I'd say a lot of the 4th in goals against is because of the Rangers goaltending and when we play non-playoff teams, we have a lot more puck possession, which helps the defensive numbers. I'd rather play defense like Boston or Dallas than the way they are playing right now.

This isn't true.

Igor vs playoff teams

East

Boston 0-3 .874
Toronto 1-0-1 .931
Tampa 1-0-1 .970
Canes 2-1-0 .924
Devils 1-1-1 .900
Islanders 1-2-0 .841
Penguins 2-1-0 .944

West
Vegas 1-0 .962
Dallas 2-0 .931
LA 2-0 .924
Colorado 1-0-1 .965
Minnesota 2-0 .912
Edmonton 1-1-0 .869
Winnipeg 0-1 .810
Seattle 1-0-1 .902

Non Playoff teams

East

Florida 1-0 .943
Buffalo 1-0 .970
Ottawa 0-0-1 .919
Washington 1-2 .866
Detroit 1-0 .900
Montreal 1-1 .912
Columbus 1-0 .933

West

Calgary DNP, Halak got both starts
Nashville DNP, Halak got both starts
St Louis 1-0 .862
Vancouver 2-0 .870
Arizona 2-0 .942
Anaheim 1-0 .810
SJ 1-0-1 .920
Chicago 1-0 .967

There are 4 playoff teams whom Igor has sported a sub .900 SV% against vs 5 against non playoff teams. If you want to draw the line at .910 then its 7 vs 5 but I picked .900 because thats the line I wanted to draw and I'm sticking with it.

Of those 4 playoff teams (going with .900), 2 of them are the Jets and the Islanders who are the 2nd and 3rd worst offensive teams currently in playoff position. Igor's performance against all teams has quite literally been a mixed bag.

Average October, November and January (fair to call January slightly above average.)

Excellent December and March (so far and it'll stay this way, he likely only plays tomorrow before we hit April. March has been his strongest month of the season by far.)

Horrendous February (where he somehow went 5-2 with an .863 sv%)

Anyway, I don't think the Rangers have a defensive problem as much as they have a puck management problem. I'd love for them to defend the way that Boston does as well but they don't have the D 1-6 like the Bruins do.

I don't think Dallas defends all that well at all. Their defense is actually quite butt.

 

[mrmovies779]

I'm hearing on the wire that Gallant was actually pretty upset after the first period last night despite leading 3-2, exclaiming to his assistant coaches that the team unacceptably came out flatter than Keira Knightley.

Keep my wife's name out your mouth!

 

[Kovalev27]

I do watch other games. I'd say a lot of the 4th in goals against is because of the Rangers goaltending and when we play non-playoff teams, we have a lot more puck possession, which helps the defensive numbers. I'd rather play defense like Boston or Dallas than the way they are playing right now.

Rangers goaltending was trash most of the season my friend. Not even remotely close to up to snuff

 

[Cmox]

Easy with that whole board pen you’re using.

This is true but they vanish when the team does well.

 

[Jackson Ranger]

But up until a few weeks ago, the majority (not the entirety) of this board seemed to feel that we were winning games in spite of our goaltending. Igor did look quite pedestrian for a good chunk of the season. We also aren't the only team playing non-playoff teams. Every team is doing so, and benefiting from the soft matchups.

I live out in Vancouver and see a lot of canucks games. Thank god, our defense looks nothing like theirs (although they have been improving as of late). Yes, Canucks are a terrible barometer, but I'd argue, as mentioned above, our defense is pretty solid overall and the breakdowns and chances we see are due to the pace and style of today's game and are just as apparent, if not more so, in most other team's games. They definitely are in the Canucks case

But up until a few weeks ago, the majority (not the entirety) of this board seemed to feel that we were winning games in spite of our goaltending. Igor did look quite pedestrian for a good chunk of the season. We also aren't the only team playing non-playoff teams. Every team is doing so, and benefiting from the soft matchups.

I live out in Vancouver and see a lot of canucks games. Thank god, our defense looks nothing like theirs (although they have been improving as of late). Yes, Canucks are a terrible barometer, but I'd argue, as mentioned above, our defense is pretty solid overall and the breakdowns and chances we see are due to the pace and style of today's game and are just as apparent, if not more so, in most other team's games. They definitely are in the Canucks case.

Igor’s save percentage by month:
Oct - 0.913
Nov - 0.912
Dec - 0.927
Jan - 0.916
Feb - 0.863
Mar - 0.931

Except for February, those aren’t bad numbers, just not Igor’s numbers from last year.

I just think if the players put a little more attention to the defensive side of the puck, this team would have a great chance to win this year.

Rangers goaltending was trash most of the season my friend. Not even remotely close to up to snuff

I just posted Igor’s save percentage by month in another post…not trash in my opinion. But we can agree to disagree.

 

[ohbaby]

If I could love a post…

For all the people who grouse about Gallant’s coaching, this is a great example of the things he does right....

Thanks for the kind words....

Of course, if we were still in a race for a playoff spot and having tight close games, managing ice time would be impossible. So you have to give some credit to the team for executing on point and paying attention to details. Turk will roll all 4 lines against the Debs. But if we fall behind, you know he won't hesitate to shorten his bench and give his top six plenty of ice time. So the team's performance dictates how well Turk can manage their time on ice.

 

[ohbaby]

What an odd game and feeling.

On the one hand, man did we look good offensively and had monstrous puck possession. Like teams should fear us if we play like that..... Oh and our breakouts looked damn good… but that is probably bc we had time. We struggle against teams with a furious forecheck.

Boy, you said a mouthful. You compare a game like this, where we had all the time and space in the world, to games against the Canes and Wow, what a difference. Night and day.

Those games against the Canes, is what you can expect throughout the playoffs. We will probably get another peek tomorrow night against NJ. All 3 previous games were close battles, 2 decided in OT.

I expect Chytil to bring it tomorrow night. With a huge grin on his face and a big contract in hand. LOL!

 

[duhmetreE]

They need to come out and play them the same way they played Calgary right after the ASB.

I want a Trouba thread on the main boards