Has Dubas failed at his job?

[Bomber0104]

Adversity? ADVERSITY? You think this team has gone through adversity? Let me let you in on something my friend, choking in the first round year after year is not adversity. Going on deep playoff runs playing through a sprained ankle, or a broken finger or cracked ribs, not being 100% but still battling, that's adversity. This isn't adversity, it's just downright pathetic, and it starts with the CULTURE that the president and GM instill into the team. You think if Sweet Lou was still here and not pushed out the door that we would have lost 5 straight first round series? Not a f***ing chance. The problems go beyond Dubass (he's created most of them) but it begins with Dubass and Shanascam, these guys are ruining the team before our very eyes. Only in Toronto does management shit the bed with elite young talent.

Great post.

Shanahan himself tries to spin it that way too:

We just didn’t get over that last hurdle. We didn’t get the job done.

"Last hurdle" he says, what a clown

Bro, the first round is the first hurdle.

That's why it's called the first round.

The last round is the Cup final and that's three more rounds away.

 

[ULF_55]

Adversity? ADVERSITY? You think this team has gone through adversity? Let me let you in on something my friend, choking in the first round year after year is not adversity. Going on deep playoff runs playing through a sprained ankle, or a broken finger or cracked ribs, not being 100% but still battling, that's adversity. This isn't adversity, it's just downright pathetic, and it starts with the CULTURE that the president and GM instill into the team. You think if Sweet Lou was still here and not pushed out the door that we would have lost 5 straight first round series? Not a f***ing chance. The problems go beyond Dubass (he's created most of them) but it begins with Dubass and Shanascam, these guys are ruining the team before our very eyes. Only in Toronto does management shit the bed with elite young talent.

Yes, they can't handle any adversity (difficulties), which is what I said.
Failing in the first round eliminates any opportunity to face adversity in the 2nd.
Simple, but that's just a reasoned position to take, talking about anything beyond failing in the first has no relevance.
Some just live extreme takes some don't.
Some elite talent step up some don't, as you say some elite talent just shits the bed when times get tough.

 

[ACC1224]

And the child posting lame puns isn't?

Lame is lame regardless of which side of the fence you find yourself on.

 

[Mess]

IMO they have only made one big deal, Tavares.

I don't really think there is a large body of work to evaluate, middling players aren't tells.

Will he fire Keefe?
Will he trade a big piece?

Those would be tells.

Will he fire Keefe? NO
Will he trade a big piece? NO

I believe GM and Coach futures are linked together now that GM has brought in his guy.

Leafs are still paying Babcock nearly $6 mil a season to not coach the Leafs and not sure the GM will get a 3rd coach. IMO

 

[SnizzNasty88]

Yes, they can't handle any adversity (difficulties), which is what I said.
Failing in the first round eliminates any opportunity to face adversity in the 2nd.
Simple, but that's just a reasoned position to take, talking about anything beyond failing in the first has no relevance.
Some just live extreme takes some don't.
Some elite talent step up some don't, as you say some elite talent just shits the bed when times get tough.

And that elite talent is paid more than anyone, which GM is responsible for that again?

 

[ULF_55]

Will he fire Keefe? NO
Will he trade a big piece? NO

I believe GM and Coach futures are linked together now that GM has brought in his guy.

Leafs are still paying Babcock nearly $6 mil a season to not coach the Leafs and not sure the GM will get a 3rd coach. IMO

Yes, I think they have this year and that's it.

If you can only get 3 goals for $44mm over 2 playoff rounds from your top line the GM has failed.

 

[ULF_55]

And that elite talent is paid more than anyone, which GM is responsible for that again?

Yep, but tell me if marner made 8.5 per year would he be better in the playoffs?

 

[SnizzNasty88]

Yep, but tell me if marner made 8.5 per year would he be better in the playoffs?

No, but it'd ease the tension and distaste the fan base has for him because that's what he should be paid but got almost $3M more than that all while making it a public and ugly process reeking of greed and entitlement, which Dubass gave in to.

 

[Mess]

Yes, I think they have this year and that's it.

If you can only get 3 goals for $44mm over 2 playoff rounds from your top line the GM has failed.

A GM is suppose to set a players value and remuneration based on their expected performance. Cap management and expenditures are key component of determining team success, & simply paying a player more doesn't make him a better player, but his cap % usage does impact the team beyond his own cost when he doesn't deliver.

Sports is a results oriented business and the GM who sets the player personnel regardless of cost/price is evaluated on job performance and judged by the results of the team he assembled which includes the management he hires to direct that personnel.

Results particularly playoff ones are the core by which a GM is measure in terms of success or failure on macro level, and not on the micro level of individual transactions, draft picks, signings, trades etc,

 

[Dekes For Days]

yea your previous comparables are that Marner was worth 2m more than Kane and that we should ignore every player signed and go back 15years to use Malkin as a comp for Mathews , lol

I've used a lot more comparables than that. As I mentioned, Matthews and Marner fit well within the comprehensive list of all high-end post-ELC contracts signed in the cap era, as long as you're not intentionally ignoring critical information in order to undervalue them of course.

Marner was undeniably worth a decent amount more than Kane. He ended up getting 1.85m more, though a portion of that was to pay for the extra year of term that the Leafs got. Malkin is a good comparable for Matthews, though Malkin actually got a bigger contract. I'm not sure how often you think comparables for Matthews/Marner come along, but they're very rare.

More recent comparables have also been shown, like Rantanen, Aho, McDavid, Eichel, etc., and Matthews/Marner align well with all of them.

we have a team that will struggle to make the playoffs like team that missed 2 yrs ago and Dubas will be gone and the next GM will have a hell of time trying to clean up the mess he left

There's no reason our team should struggle to make the playoffs - they've never missed the playoffs under this core, and we're coming off a 113 point pace season. It's highly unlikely that Dubas leaves anytime soon, though if he does, he will have set up the next GM extremely well, with a great, balanced team, no bad contracts, and a solid pipeline of prospects.

 

[ULF_55]

A GM is suppose to set a players value and remuneration based on their expected performance. Cap management and expenditures are key component of determining team success, & simply paying a player more doesn't make him a better player, but his cap % usage does impact the team beyond his own cost when he doesn't deliver.

Sports is a results oriented business and the GM who sets the player personnel regardless of cost/price is evaluated on job performance and judged by the results of the team he assembled which includes the management he hire to direct that personnel.

Results particularly playoff ones are the core by which a GM is measure in terms of success or failure on macro level, and not on the micro level of individual transactions, draft picks, signings, trades etc,

Yes, based on playoff results there are some highly overpaid players on the team.

Mirage team, mirage players.

 

[hotpaws]

I've used a lot more comparables than that. As I mentioned, Matthews and Marner fit well within the comprehensive list of all high-end post-ELC contracts signed in the cap era, as long as you're not intentionally ignoring critical information in order to undervalue them of course.

Marner was undeniably worth a decent amount more than Kane. He ended up getting 1.85m more, though a portion of that was to pay for the extra year of term that the Leafs got. Malkin is a good comparable for Matthews, though Malkin actually got a bigger contract. I'm not sure how often you think comparables for Matthews/Marner come along, but they're very rare.

More recent comparables have also been shown, like Rantanen, Aho, McDavid, Eichel, etc., and Matthews/Marner align well with all of them.

There's no reason our team should struggle to make the playoffs - they've never missed the playoffs under this core, and we're coming off a 113 point pace season. It's highly unlikely that Dubas leaves anytime soon, though if he does, he will have set up the next GM extremely well, with a great, balanced team, no bad contracts, and a solid pipeline of prospects.

no one thinks there's a comp for Marner to get his deal and Mathews is overpaid using all comps , your the only one left trying to defend these as deals fair market value so take that for what it's worth

we missed the playoffs 2 yrs ago since we LOST in the play in rd , you again all the only one trying to spin this and being 1st in a brutal division when we didn't play a single team outside of the division isn't something to be proud of especially since we lost AGAIN in the 1st rd

and Dubas has completely f***ed this team and it's getting worse since either Rielly walks or we have to deal a quality player to be able to sign him and Campbell which would further weaken this team

 

[Mess]

Yes, based on playoff results there are some highly overpaid players on the team.

Mirage team, mirage players.

Leafs are one of the NHL's flagship and richest fortune 500 teams and are among the worst teams in terms of playoff success since the salary Cap was instituted in 2004 and have failed to win a single playoff round where money is no object when it comes to spending ability.

What that suggests is that the Leafs GMs are spending harder not smarter simply because they can afford to, but it also suggests that those contract decisions on who and what amount in a Salary Cap World is at the heart of is ailing this team, as team building is an area of concern that is roadblocking its potential success tied to spending, when forced to be capped.

Previous unsuccessful GMs have been replaced when playoff success has not been rewarded for investment in player personnel, and +90% of this current team has Kyle Dubas signature on the bottom of Leafs player contracts and signed to the amount he negotiated, leaving very little doubt of previous carryover.

So why should he be any different than anyone else holding that position and entrusted with the job of delivering on team expectations? I'm of the belief that after inheriting a 100+ point team with a top 2 GF and PP% and top 10 GA and PK% and now 0 for 3 when it comes to playoff round #1 results that the expiry date is nearing, unless the results of the team change.

 

[Dekes For Days]

no one thinks there's a comp for Marner to get his deal and Mathews is overpaid using all comps

Except as usual, there's no actual justification for these positions given by anybody who promotes them. I've extensively supported my position.

we missed the playoffs 2 yrs ago

We factually did not miss the playoffs two years ago. We have made the playoffs every year that Matthews/Marner have been on the team.

and Dubas has completely f***ed this team and it's getting worse since

Dubas has actually improved this team quite a bit since he took over.

 

[hotpaws]

Except as usual, there's no actual justification for these positions given by anybody who promotes them. I've extensively supported my position.

We factually did not miss the playoffs two years ago. We have made the playoffs every year that Matthews/Marner have been on the team.

Dubas has actually improved this team quite a bit since he took over.

endlessly saying your supported your position isn't supporting your position and no one's buying your Marner comp than he's worth 2m more than Kane or that Mathews deal is market value when the best player in the game signed for slightly more but for 3 yrs longer

we factually made the PLAY IN rd where we lost so we didn't get to PLAY IN the playoffs

yea the team keeps getting better but then keeps getting out by weaker and weaker teams , lol

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are one of the NHL's flagship and richest fortune 500 teams and are among the worst teams in terms of playoff success since the salary Cap was instituted in 2004 and have failed to win a single playoff round where money is no object when it comes to spending ability.

What that suggests is that the Leafs GMs are spending harder not smarter simply because they can afford to, but it also suggests that those contract decisions on who and what amount in a Salary Cap World is at the heart of is ailing this team, as team building is an area of concern that is roadblocking its potential success tied to spending, when forced to be capped.

Previous unsuccessful GMs have been replaced when playoff success has not been rewarded for investment in player personnel, and +90% of this current team has Kyle Dubas signature on the bottom of Leafs player contracts and signed to the amount he negotiated, leaving very little doubt of previous carryover.

So why should he be any different than anyone else holding that position and entrusted with the job of delivering on team expectations? I'm of the belief that after inheriting a 100+ point team with a top 2 GF and PP% and top 10 GA and PK% and now 0 for 3 when it comes to playoff round #1 results that the expiry date is nearing, unless the results of the team change.

Yes, team needs to succeed or needs to be restructured, changing the GM alone won't accomplish that.

Moving out players selected by previous management needs to happen as well, as the GM isn't on the ice so leaving the same stew in the pot doesn't change the taste.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Wow, that's deep.



There's zero reason to assume that any marner deal now will be a huge L. And considering the flat cap, a marner deal makes a ton of sense. Sorry but when you say riding it out is "all you can do", that's just wrong and shows a lack of imagination.

Actually GN i would have to totally disagree Marner should or needs to be moved. I wouldn’t trade him for Eichel even with his brand new artificial disk in his back
I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t get the value back. Easy to say but sit down and throw together a deal,get another G.M to agree to the money,players,picks,prospects and then make us better. Seems to me we haven’t seen a massive deal like this in quite some time. The cap hit always lowers the value now it seems. Double that lowered value in this flat cap. Maybe the last year of a deal before NMC kicks in it might work.
If they fail one more playoff nobody will care who they move and that is also a bad trading position when still in the flat cap. These guys need to shake their heads and see if it rattles. We can’t keep blaming just coaches and G.M or whatever other blame comes along.
Now for me it’s Morgs they need to fish or cut bait on immediately. Is he even a fit any longer is the question i ask myself and come up with no he isn’t a fit any longer. I would like to see him traded to the Ducks who are trying to peddle Josh Manson for a first and prospect.
Rielly for Manson + a good bottom 6 player like max jones and a 3rd or something. Marner being moved right now would be a disaster and I’m not sure the offers would be very good. Thats a assumption but thats a big contract to deal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

endlessly saying your supported your position isn't supporting your position and no one's buying your Marner comp than he's worth 2m more than Kane or that Mathews deal is market value when the best player in the game signed for slightly more but for 3 yrs longer

Did you want me to repost the pages and pages of extensive proof that I have posted to support my position over the years? I didn't think it was necessary to rehash the same argument again, and have that dominate this thread, since you've personally been part of some of those past discussions. I've noted some comparables, and addressed the players that you mentioned, explaining how our players fit in comparison.

As I already explained, Marner received 1.85m more than Kane, not 2m, and part of that 1.85m was to pay for the extra year the Leafs got. It is undeniable that Marner was worth more than Kane at time of signing their respective post-ELC contracts. McDavid's valuation at 8 years was the equivalent of 14.4m, and he ended up getting the equivalent of 13.6m after the discount he gave - that's not slightly more. Also, while McDavid may be the best player in the game today, we are discussing his pre-signing period, and that was not significantly better than Matthews' pre-signing period. McDavid was a better point producer, and Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer.

we factually made the PLAY IN rd where we lost so we didn't get to PLAY IN the playoffs

As the NHL states, 24 teams made the playoffs in 2019-2020. Toronto made the playoffs in 2019-2020, just as we have every single year with Matthews/Marner.

yea the team keeps getting better but then keeps getting out by weaker and weaker teams

We lost to top-end goaltending performances over the past two playoffs, and the Cup finalist this year, while experiencing some pretty significant injuries. That doesn't change the fact that the team has improved.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Actually GN i would have to totally disagree Marner should or needs to be moved. I wouldn’t trade him for Eichel even with his brand new artificial disk in his back
I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t get the value back. Easy to say but sit down and throw together a deal,get another G.M to agree to the money,players,picks,prospects and then make us better. Seems to me we haven’t seen a massive deal like this in quite some time. The cap hit always lowers the value now it seems. Double that lowered value in this flat cap. Maybe the last year of a deal before NMC kicks in it might work.

I've explained at length why there are teams for whom Marner would be more valuable than he is to us. One big point is that for a team that cares more about real dollars then we do and cares less about cap hit then we do, he's a bargain and it won't be a case of cap hit lowering the value, it will be a case of the real dollar amount raising his value.

In terms of real dollars, Marner is I believe just over 6 million a year and is under contract for 4 more years. Young entertaining player for relatively small amount of real dollars who will help sell tickets, dangle him in front of a team that cares about real dollars and you'll need a big bucket for the drool.

 

[hotpaws]

Did you want me to repost the pages and pages of extensive proof that I have posted to support my position over the years? I didn't think it was necessary to rehash the same argument again, and have that dominate this thread, since you've personally been part of some of those past discussions. I've noted some comparables, and addressed the players that you mentioned, explaining how our players fit in comparison.

As I already explained, Marner received 1.85m more than Kane, not 2m, and part of that 1.85m was to pay for the extra year the Leafs got. It is undeniable that Marner was worth more than Kane at time of signing their respective post-ELC contracts. McDavid's valuation at 8 years was the equivalent of 14.4m, and he ended up getting the equivalent of 13.6m after the discount he gave - that's not slightly more. Also, while McDavid may be the best player in the game today, we are discussing his pre-signing period, and that was not significantly better than Matthews' pre-signing period. McDavid was a better point producer, and Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer.

As the NHL states, 24 teams made the playoffs in 2019-2020. Toronto made the playoffs in 2019-2020, just as we have every single year with Matthews/Marner.

We lost to top-end goaltending performances over the past two playoffs, and the Cup finalist this year, while experiencing some pretty significant injuries. That doesn't change the fact that the team has improved.

yea why post pages and pages of saying you posted pages and pages previously instead of just giving out all your comparables , lol

and i have already told you , no one buys your comparable's especially the one where you say Marner was worth 2m more than Kane , not to mention how much less Ratanen and every other Marner comparable also signed for

McD was already the best player in the game when he signed his deal so no one knows how Mathews got a better contract other than you . lol

no the NHL expended the qualifying format for the playoffs 2 years ago and the Leafs failed to win there playin so they didn't qualify for the 1st rd of the playoffs as per the NHL

sure the Leafs just keep getting better and better but keep getting knocked out of the 1st rd because of um reasons . lol

anyway Dubas will be gone by seasons end at the latest so i won't have to read your non sense anymore . lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

instead of just giving out all your comparables

I already did give you comparables, both past and present, and you have seen the evidence of how our players fit relative to them multiple times. You refuse to accept the comparables or the evidence, for no given reason other than not liking it.

no one buys your comparable's especially the one where you say Marner was worth 2m more than Kane , not to mention how much less Ratanen and every other Marner comparable also signed for less

For the 3rd time, I did not say Marner is worth 2m more than Kane, and he did not receive that valuation. Marner received 1.85m more than Kane, and a portion of that was to pay for the extra year the Leafs bought. Marner was better than Rantanen - who was more closely aligned with Kane. The issue here seems to be your undervaluing of Matthews and Marner at time of signing their post ELC contracts, and your overreliance on exclusively raw points, while dismissing all other important context and information.

McD was already the best player in the game when he signed his deal

In actuality, McDavid's pre-signing period was not much better than Matthews. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer.

no the NHL expended the qualifying format for the playoffs 2 years ago and the Leafs failed to win there playin so they didn't qualify for the 1st rd of the playoffs as per the NHL

That is incorrect. The NHL has explicitly stated that it was all the playoffs, and it is counted as such in the records, for both player and team. You can clearly see this in their official playoff format page, and in their playoff streak page.

the conclusion of the 2019-20 regular season as well as a modified competitive playoff format that features 24 teams

The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin with the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers

Toronto has made the playoffs every single year with Matthews/Marner.

anyway Dubas will be gone by seasons end at the latest

Highly unlikely.

 

[hotpaws]

I already did give you comparables, both past and present, and you have seen the evidence of how our players fit relative to them multiple times. You refuse to accept the comparables or the evidence, for no given reason other than not liking it.

For the 3rd time, I did not say Marner is worth 2m more than Kane, and he did not receive that valuation. Marner received 1.85m more than Kane, and a portion of that was to pay for the extra year the Leafs bought. Marner was better than Rantanen - who was more closely aligned with Kane. The issue here seems to be your undervaluing of Matthews and Marner at time of signing their post ELC contracts, and your overreliance on exclusively raw points, while dismissing all other important context and information.

In actuality, McDavid's pre-signing period was not much better than Matthews. McDavid was a better point producer. Matthews was a better primary point and goal producer.

That is incorrect. The NHL has explicitly stated that it was all the playoffs, and it is counted as such in the records, for both player and team. You can clearly see this in their official playoff format page, and in their playoff streak page.


Toronto has made the playoffs every single year with Matthews/Marner.

Highly unlikely.

it's not even worth discussing anything with a person who's trying to to argue than McD's pre signing period wasn't much better than AM's when CM won the

-Art Ross
-Lindsay
-Hart

in his second season in the league and BEFORE he signed his extension

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I've explained at length why there are teams for whom Marner would be more valuable than he is to us. One big point is that for a team that cares more about real dollars then we do and cares less about cap hit then we do, he's a bargain and it won't be a case of cap hit lowering the value, it will be a case of the real dollar amount raising his value.

In terms of real dollars, Marner is I believe just over 6 million a year and is under contract for 4 more years. Young entertaining player for relatively small amount of real dollars who will help sell tickets, dangle him in front of a team that cares about real dollars and you'll need a big bucket for the drool.

All fine and good. Hypothetically.
The reality sets in when they look at the price they have to pay in talent and assets going out the door. Seems a minimized stance on a complex trade. I wouldn’t trade him right now or possibly ever. The guy has numbers better than McKinnons first 5 seasons for example and many other top players. Why would we want to trade him before he breaks out and in to his prime years. I think the simple solution is put him with Tavares again. The combo has degenerated in to a predictable mess and Tavares, Marner was never predictable because Tavares is so busy down low ( much harder to deal with down low than Matthews). Matthews has become a sitting duck sliding in to the left side and waiting. Tavares/ Marner together has more flow.
Matthews needs to get engaged more than that. He’s 6’3” 220 and stands around waiting for Marner passes way to much. They need to be not a fixed pair 100% the time.
Keefe should break up the line and try Tavares Marner again. They generate more unpredictable play together.

 

[Dekes For Days]

it's not even worth discussing anything with a person who trying to to argue than McD's pre signing period wasn't much better than AM's

McDavid racked up more secondary assists, and he got more ice time, but Matthews was very comparable to McDavid through their pre-signing periods.

If we were going exclusively by raw points, McDavid would have one of the best post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era, and would have even before taking one of the biggest discounts in the history of the cap era, and thus it would be illogical to claim a contract is bad because it doesn't live up to that standard.

At time of signing their post ELC contracts, their P/GP was:

McDavid: 1.17
Matthews: 0.98
Eichel: 0.80

And Matthews only moves closer to McDavid when we remove EN points. Now, of course, contracts are not only determined by looking at some raw point number and matching it to a corresponding contract amount. There would be no negotiation if this was the case, and many contracts throughout the history of the cap era wouldn't make sense. We get a much clearer picture and understanding when more is considered.

Let's look at some other numbers for these players at time of signing...

Primary Points/GP

Matthews: 0.83
McDavid: 0.83
Eichel: 0.63

Goals/GP

Matthews: 0.53
McDavid: 0.36
Eichel: 0.34

And when we look at more accurate metrics than per-game, and consider things like PP TOI which skews raw production, just how dominant Matthews was becomes even clearer...

ES Points/60

McDavid: 3.00
Matthews: 2.80
Eichel: 1.78

ES Primary Points/60

Matthews: 2.42
McDavid: 2.34
Eichel: 1.44

ES Goals/60

Matthews: 1.61
McDavid: 1.11
Eichel: 0.79

PP Points/60

Matthews: 6.47
McDavid: 6.44
Eichel: 6.30

PP Primary Points/60

Matthews: 5.06
Eichel: 4.76
McDavid: 3.61

PP Goals/60

Matthews: 2.95
Eichel: 2.52
McDavid: 0.94

McDavid was the better point producer. Matthews was the better primary point and goal producer. Eichel was far behind both of them. Their contracts reflect that.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

it's not even worth discussing anything with a person who trying to to argue than McD's pre signing period wasn't much better than AM's when CM won the

-Art Ross
-Lindsay
-Hart

in his second season in the league and BEFORE he signed his extension

In fairness, Matthews has more goals in 5 seasons than McDavid has in 6 seasons. Matthews has a scorers premium. It’s really incorporated in to scorers contracts. It is real. Matthews gets paid extra because he scores better than mostly everyone consistently. Thats a added value that needs to be accepted in his value. Same with marner being a point scoring machine. He got a premium on a 94 point season plus his moron agent wanted his bonus schedule on Elc renegotiated.
That said, they should have never been given anything but a bridge contract for team negotiating power and player rights retention alone.
McDavid is a different ball of wax for sure nonetheless