Hanifin Or Marner?

[Bernier the Boats]

Also, here's a fun picture, the forwards in the top 10 drafted with the best PPG last 30 years (pre 2013):

Marners PPG is currently is 2.03PPG. For whatever reason this list excludes Thornton, but his PPG was 2.01.

Also, for people who don't think points in the CHL matter, here's the worst PPG players drafted in the top 10 from the CHL of the last 30 years:

 

[NotSince67*]

Well, the list of players to outscore Marner in their draft years dating back to the year 2000:

John Tavares
Patrick Kane
Sidney Crosby
Dylan Strome (but worse PPG)
PM Bouchard

And in PPG: Spezza, Drouin, McDavid.

If you include playoffs he actually beats out Spezza in PPG.

Pretty darn special. Those guys turned out pretty good. He outscored Giroux, Stamkos, Hall, Seguin, Nugent-Hopkins, MacKinnon, Johansen, Nash etc.

Pretty unfair to label him as a 60 point guy.

Hanifin's a good prospect. Top pairing upside. Marner has superstar potential, the choice is easy for me.

People need to realize how unbelievably good Strome and Marner really are as prospects. It's crazy.

It's 100% unfair to make that projection simply on Jr. scoring. He only outscored Kyle Wellwood by 8 points. McKegg outscored a ton a top NHLers in his draft year like Getzlaf. Not indicative of potential super-stardom, that is the players physical make-up, skills, and style of play. It's far more complicated than points.


But, I did also want to mention, I think it's easy to get behind Strome and Marner because we can see how good they are. We see them in our own communities against players we can measure like Nurse or McCann, Fabbri, Bennett and so forth.

I think there is an unitentional bias versus Hanifin because we don't really get to see him all that much. Pretty much WJC and close to the end of the year a bit. He plays in a league where a lot of guys are less familiar. It's even harder to just get in the car and go see him and the like. Given he's an unknown commodity in that sense, I think people are willing to doubt him, but benefit MArner and Strome because they're sure since they can verify it for themselves.

I can assure you though, one quote really stuck out to me. To paraphrase, a scout said that Hanifin is the most dominant defender he's ever seen at a USNDP tryout which would include the Johnsons, Jones. That's really high praise.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

It's 100% unfair to make that projection simply on Jr. scoring. He only outscored Kyle Wellwood by 8 points. McKegg outscored a ton a top NHLers in his draft year like Getzlaf. Not indicative of potential super-stardom, that is the players physical make-up, skills, and style of play. It's far more complicated than points.


But, I did also want to mention, I think it's easy to get behind Strome and Marner because we can see how good they are. We see them in our own communities against players we can measure like Nurse or McCann, Fabbri, Bennett and so forth.

I think there is an unitentional bias versus Hanifin because we don't really get to see him all that much. Pretty much WJC and close to the end of the year a bit. He plays in a league where a lot of guys are less familiar. It's even harder to just get in the car and go see him and the like. Given he's an unknown commodity in that sense, I think people are willing to doubt him, but benefit MArner and Strome because they're sure since they can verify it for themselves.

I can assure you though, one quote really stuck out to me. To paraphrase, a scout said that Hanifin is the most dominant defender he's ever seen at a USNDP tryout which would include the Johnsons, Jones. That's really high praise.

Clearly, in the top 10 at least, the data suggests PPG is highly correlated to NHL success, as evidenced above. If you want to ignore it, then go right ahead.

Meh, Hanifin tried out for the USNDP at like 15 or 16. Not like either Johnson or Jones is setting the world on fire in the NHL. I'll take what I see now, he's 5th best for me.

 

[NotSince67*]

Also, here's a fun picture, the forwards drafted with the best PPG last 30 years (pre 2013):

Marners PPG is currently is 2.03PPG.

Also, for people who don't think points in the CHL matter, here's the worst PPG players drafted in the top 10 from the CHL of the last 30 years:

It's not that points are irrelevant. They are. (BTW, Paul Gaustad had like single digit points I;m sure in his draft year in the W, it was atrocious. 100+ pims, probably close to 150.) But it's far from the be all end all. As scouts say production is important, but it's also HOW you produce, and what kind of a player you are.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

It's not that points are irrelevant. They are. (BTW, Paul Gaustad had like single digit points I;m sure in his draft year in the W, it was atrocious. 100+ pims, probably close to 150.) But it's far from the be all end all. As scouts say production is important, but it's also HOW you produce, and what kind of a player you are.

10/15 of those players are NHL superstars. 5/6 of the OHL guys. Brassard, Gagner, Bouchard, Brendl and Daigle are not. Some are serviceable NHLers though.

I'll play the odds.

 

[NotSince67*]

And in regards to him being 5th best, Strome isn't exactly a pick I wouldn't worry about at night. He REALLY needs to improve his skating. As is, he won't make the NHL. HAving said that, we all know skating can be improved, but to what extent will it. If JT's skating had stayed where is was when he was 19, he wouldn;t be the elite talent he is now.

My other concern with Strome is right now his skating hinders his ability to play centre. Watching him through at least 5-6 games a common theme is he's defending the points in the defnsive zone and is usually the last man back into the d-zone. Simply put...

His skating will make or break him as a prospect and he DOES have the potential that it holds him back enough he never fufills the potential predicted for him at this point.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

And in regards to him being 5th best, Strome isn't exactly a pick I wouldn't worry about at night. He REALLY needs to improve his skating. As is, he won't make the NHL. HAving said that, we all know skating can be improved, but to what extent will it. If JT's skating had stayed where is was when he was 19, he wouldn;t be the elite talent he is now.

My other concern with Strome is right now his skating hinders his ability to play centre. Watching him through at least 5-6 games a common theme is he's defending the points in the defnsive zone and is usually the last man back into the d-zone. Simply put...

His skating will make or break him as a prospect and he DOES have the potential that it holds him back enough he never fufills the potential predicted for him at this point.

He moves around just as well as Thornton ever has. I'm not worried.

 

[NotSince67*]

BTW, that chart is clearly wrong. Wellwood's PPG was 1.735, placing him ahead of Turgeon.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

BTW, that chart is clearly wrong. Wellwood's PPG was 1.735, placing him ahead of Turgeon.

I said of forwards drafted in the top 10, reread the post. Wellwood was a 5th rounder.

Marner will be a top 10 pick. It doesn't compromise the data set.

 

[NotSince67*]

He moves around just as well as Thornton ever has. I'm not worried.

He moves around in the OHL like Thornton does in the NHL, it's not the same.

There was once a player named Normand Aubin. Jacques Martin said he was the most dangerous player he ever saw. Played less than 100 NHL games. Why? Skating was so bad he could only be effective on the power play, simply could not play otherwise.

I'm not saying Strome now is a total bust. But, the reality is, he will only go as far as his skating improves, it's most definitely the limiting factor in his career. How much it improves, really, is up to him and not something you can predict.

 

[NotSince67*]

I said of forwards drafted in the top 10, reread the post. Wellwood was a 5th rounder.

Marner will be a top 10 pick. It doesn't compromise the data set.

Well, making the chart all just top 10 picks is sort of cherry picking isn't it? If PPG is what makes a prospect, then it should simply just be PPG. All of those players had other assets that WITH high level production, made them attractive prospects.

As I said PPG is just one thing, it doesn't make a prospect.

 

[NotSince67*]

10/15 of those players are NHL superstars. 5/6 of the OHL guys. Brassard, Gagner, Bouchard, Brendl and Daigle are not. Some are serviceable NHLers though.

I'll play the odds.

8/10 of those were also #1 overall picks.... (The only two who were not? Spezza #2, after Kovalchuck and LaFontaine #3, #4 was Steve Yzerman who only has a PPG of 1.63 not making the list....)

And don;t say anything about McDavid, because he's comparable as an elite prospect to Lindros, Lemieux, and Crosby. I mean... even Hall or Tavares vs Marner, does Marner go #1 Overall? I can;t say but I lean towards no.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

6/10 of those were also #1 overall picks....

And don;t say anything about McDavid, because he's comparable as an elite prospect to Lindros, Lemieux, and Crosby.

Even better, he outscored a pile of 1st overall picks. In fact, he outscored basically every 1st overall pick of the last 30 years from the CHL (exceptions being McDavid, Lemieux, Crosby, Kane).

 

[NotSince67*]

Even better, he outscored a pile of 1st overall picks. In fact, he outscored basically every 1st overall pick of the last 30 years from the CHL (exceptions being McDavid, Lemieux, Crosby, Kane).

"The backfire effect occurs when, in the face of contradictory evidence, established beliefs do not change but actually get stronger. The effect has been demonstrated experimentally in psychological tests, where subjects are given data that either reinforces or goes against their existing biases - and in most cases people can be shown to increase their confidence in their prior position regardless of the evidence they were faced with.

In a pessimistic sense, this makes most refutations useless."

Re: If it has been shown that there is more to a prospect than sheer PPG, why would PPG greater than another prospect prove he's a superior player? Did PPG higher than Lindros despite Lindros being an overall pick higher than Gangner make Gagner the better player? That's what your previous argument would infer.

 

[Menzinger]

He moves around in the OHL like Thornton does in the NHL, it's not the same.

There was once a player named Normand Aubin. Jacques Martin said he was the most dangerous player he ever saw. Played less than 100 NHL games. Why? Skating was so bad he could only be effective on the power play, simply could not play otherwise.

I'm not saying Strome now is a total bust. But, the reality is, he will only go as far as his skating improves, it's most definitely the limiting factor in his career. How much it improves, really, is up to him and not something you can predict.

Tavares used to be a below average skater, now he's an average skater. Hasn't stopped him from dominating the ice

 

[Bernier the Boats]

"The backfire effect occurs when, in the face of contradictory evidence, established beliefs do not change but actually get stronger. The effect has been demonstrated experimentally in psychological tests, where subjects are given data that either reinforces or goes against their existing biases - and in most cases people can be shown to increase their confidence in their prior position regardless of the evidence they were faced with.

In a pessimistic sense, this makes most refutations useless."

Re: If it has been shown that there is more to a prospect than sheer PPG, why would PPG greater than another prospect prove he's a superior player? Did PPG higher than Lindros despite Lindros being an overall pick higher than Gangner make Gagner the better player? That's what your previous argument would infer.

You're right. You've posed such cogent arguments that I am at a loss for words. I now no longer care about junior production and want to draft Mr. Crouse with our pick, because Paul Gaustad was a really bad junior scorer.

You really struggle with the concept of odds. Look them up. Having a higher PPG makes you more likely to be a good player, doesn't guarantee it. I am done with this topic. I've presented the data, if you want to fight it, fight it. Hunter, Shanahan and Dubas will not.

 

[NotSince67*]

You're right. You've posed such cogent arguments that I am at a loss for words. I now no longer care about junior production and want to draft Mr. Crouse with our pick, because Paul Gaustad was a really bad junior scorer.

You really struggle with the concept of odds. Look them up. Having a higher PPG makes you more likely to be a good player, doesn't guarantee it.

Bingo. I said already I like Marner. I think he's going to be a good player. But if Strome, who many project as his upside a Joe Thornton who was usually around 80-95 points, is percieved as the better prospect, PPG does not support that indeed Marner is a 90 point player (pretty much making him BETTER than Patty Kane). I think you overvalue Marner in that sense.

Regardless, you've gotten fully away from debating Hanifin and Marner and gotten on a tangent with that swiss-cheese chart (By using only top 10 picks you;ve narrowed the sample down, which doesn't prove PPG as a standalone is completely indicative of a prospects ability) to try and asser that Marner is pretty much a SUPERstar in the making.

I mean really. If the guy is only a perennial 70 point player that's pretty damn good.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Marner

 

[JMilne*]

Mitch Marner has a better hockey IQ and more skill / raw talent at the moment than Hanifin But he lacks size ( weight and height ) not saying he cant beef up a bit cause he can. marner is also a 2 way threat and very talented on both sides of the ice , he know how to get the puck and he knows what to do once he has that puck. but I also think hes farther away from being NHL ready , but we really need a big Strong center if anything and marner just dose not fill that void in my opinion. ( we also have Nylander around the same size and skill as Marner , and i absolutely love Nylander )

Hanifin is a superior skater one of the best Skaters around , has a very strong shot, great Body strength and size 6'3 205 pounds , hes also 1-2 years closer to being NHL ready than Marner . Hanifin is a shutdown Defense man and has Penitential to be a franchise Dman and could be a great pairing partner for Morgan Riley one day.

I really think Hanifin is to good to pass up if hes still there ( even tho I really want Strome, I would love the leafs to draft a Canadian boy) But if its between Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin i have to Go Hanifin .

 

[PuckMagi]

I'm back on the Marner train.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Just feel our need for a center is so acute

 

[pspot]

for the people that are that high on Hanifin, have you seen him play? or just going off of rankings?

honestly just not crazy about the idea of a US Dmen and with it literally being the leafs only position of strength, Rielly, Percy, Finn, Gardiner, i really want them to take a forward and with one like Strome or Marner on the board those are special players. Any time i've watched Marner of been impressed.

 

[ACC1224]

Mitch Marner has a better hockey IQ and more skill / raw talent at the moment than Hanifin But he lacks size ( weight and height ) not saying he cant beef up a bit cause he can. marner is also a 2 way threat and very talented on both sides of the ice , he know how to get the puck and he knows what to do once he has that puck. but I also think hes farther away from being NHL ready , but we really need a big Strong center if anything and marner just dose not fill that void in my opinion. ( we also have Nylander around the same size and skill as Marner , and i absolutely love Nylander )

Hanifin is a superior skater one of the best Skaters around , has a very strong shot, great Body strength and size 6'3 205 pounds , hes also 1-2 years closer to being NHL ready than Marner . Hanifin is a shutdown Defense man and has Penitential to be a franchise Dman and could be a great pairing partner for Morgan Riley one day.

I really think Hanifin is to good to pass up if hes still there ( even tho I really want Strome, I would love the leafs to draft a Canadian boy) But if its between Mitch Marner and Noah Hanifin i have to Go Hanifin .

Some believe Marner is ready now, nothing in his game says he's not.

 

[egd27]

Some believe Marner is ready now, nothing in his game says he's not.

Thought the plan was patient drafting and development?

 

[613Leafer]

for the people that are that high on Hanifin, have you seen him play? or just going off of rankings?

honestly just not crazy about the idea of a US Dmen and with it literally being the leafs only position of strength, Rielly, Percy, Finn, Gardiner, i really want them to take a forward and with one like Strome or Marner on the board those are special players. Any time i've watched Marner of been impressed.

Kinda funny that you criticize people for basing decisions off draft rankings, and then you make yours off of nationality and position Id say knowing someones position in a dozen draft rankings done by different professional organizations is more informative than just writing someone off because of their passport and the position they play but nothing else.

As for dmen, youre just listing off names. Are Percy, Finn, Gardiner, better than Kadri, Holland, Verhaeghe, Gauthier, etc? Does Rielly have more upside than Nylander?

I think we need big help at both positions. If Percy is our second best longterm dman option, thats a big weakness IMO. Rielly is the only dman in our system that we can comfortably project as a top 3 dman. And even he we cant comfortably project as an elite #1.

I just hope we make the right choice and land a franchise player, dont really care if its a D or a C. All these guys have great skillsets, Id probably largely base my decision on which guy is the hardest worker, with the best hockey IQ, and best attitude. With the gap in raw skillset so close, i think those other factors could be huge in regards to which hits their full potential.