Hanifin Or Marner?

[FlareKnight]

It really is a comfort that we will have two of Strome/Hanifin/Marner to pick from at 4. The only downside is that we can't draft all of them .

All have the ability to make a difference, just a question of which the scouts feel is the right guy.

 

[Hogzilla]

Difficult to rank Hanafin when he's a ncaa defensman.

I prefer to go with what I know, and that's Marner who had the 2nd highest ppg average in the CHL behind McDavid and had been dominating in the playoffs too. He might be a tad small but anyone who has watched him play knows that he plays with grit and tenacity. Plus like others have already pointed out with great examples, size doesn't always matter... Sometimes skill can overshadow lack of size and Marner is as good of a smaller prospect as there has been.

Wouldn't it be funny is Arizona drafted Marner at #3 and suddenly had the London Knight connection Domi, Dvorak and Marner haha

 

[Teeder9]

Draft Marner, he has Giroux written all over him.

Draft Tyler Benson next year and boom, start the parade.

Haven't seen anything from benson that tells me it's time to start anything. i remember a couple years ago Cherry brought him up and TSN did a thing on him calling him the next one or something hyperbolic like that. I also remember Angelo Esposito. That said, I don't think he is anything like that, but the great ones keep being the great ones. He's kind of just put himself into the mix for the rest of the top ten, not the top of.

 

[Daisy Jane]

It really is a comfort that we will have two of Strome/Hanifin/Marner to pick from at 4. The only downside is that we can't draft all of them .

All have the ability to make a difference, just a question of which the scouts feel is the right guy.

agreed. i'm going to be happy with whomever.

 

[Hogzilla]

Haven't seen anything from benson that tells me it's time to start anything. i remember a couple years ago Cherry brought him up and TSN did a thing on him calling him the next one or something hyperbolic like that. I also remember Angelo Esposito. That said, I don't think he is anything like that, but the great ones keep being the great ones. He's kind of just put himself into the mix for the rest of the top ten, not the top of.

I'm not saying he's a generation talent or anything, but I believe him to be a top 10 pick with some special upside that typical top 10's don't have. I like the fact he's a powerforward and I think he'd compliment Marner and Nylander well.

 

[Teeder9]

I'm not saying he's a generation talent or anything, but I believe him to be a top 10 pick with some special upside that typical top 10's don't have. I like the fact he's a powerforward and I think he'd compliment Marner and Nylander well.

He's definitely in the top 10 right now. I don't know. Nothing he does says special anymore than the players considered better than him right now. We should have another top 5 pick next season, if we truly rebuild, and Matthews, Puljujarvi, and Chychrun are so far ahead of him right now he would have to pull a Marner to get back into it. I don't see him doing that. I still have 4 other guys ahead of him, and two by quite a bit, including Sokolov who I have at 4 and could easily be a top 3 if he gets better

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I'm only referencing the skating, although admittedly Neids is better in that regard. I also didn't bring him up, just commenting on him. Better skater than Lidstrom and I think Lidstrom was always a smarter player. Hanifin has a lot of guys you could start to compare to, but then get to a point where he starts to look like someone else and so on. And yes, he is definitely not Gardiner

Hanifin is a stronger skater than Lidstrom due to a greater importance on speed nowadays. Nevertheless, Hanifin is a cerebral - puck moving - defenceman. Even though he can be physical, intelligence is what defines his game.

You could tell that he's modeled his game after Lidstrom or even Keith. He plays a strong positional game, isn't flashy and accurately passes the puck. That clockwork playing style is why I think he's going to be very special. Lidstrom-like, Suter-like defenceman aren't as noticeable due to their less abrasive game, but are critical for any rebuilding team.

Draft BPA. If he's available ( doubt it), take him. We still have a chance of going after Auston Mathews next year or even Ryan McLeon in 2017.

 

[Teeder9]

Hanifin is a stronger skater than Lidstrom due to a greater importance on speed nowadays. Nevertheless, Hanifin is a cerebral - puck moving - defenceman. Even though he can be physical, intelligence is what defines his game.

You could tell that he's modeled his game after Lidstrom or even Keith. He plays a strong positional game, isn't flashy and accurately passes the puck. That clockwork playing style is why I think he's going to be very special. Lidstrom-like, Suter-like defenceman aren't as noticeable due to their less abrasive game, but are critical for any rebuilding team.

Draft BPA. If he's available ( doubt it), take him. We still have a chance of going after Auston Mathews next year or even Ryan McLeon in 2017.

Definitely. I think most that have a problem with him are two narrow in their view of a rebuild. On year and lets go, when there's a good chance our rebuild parallels Edmonton. Hope not, but it's definitely a possibility. There are players next year and the year after (I like Matheos for the record in 2017) and we are so bare in the prospect dept that we could literally have 5 picks for the next two 1st rounds and still have needs.

 

[Joey24]

I choose marner just because I think he will be an amazing player and would be loved like a Gilmour. We have a young stud d man some pretty underrated defense on the Marlins and in Euro. Hanifin looks like he's in a league of his own in the ncaa but personally I still take Mitch.

 

[highslot]

if it's a choice between kane and niedermeyer on the leafs next seasons, i'd say kane. we only have 1 blue chip forward coming up in nylander.

you can say jvr is a first liner and rielly will be one.

i'd rate percy, valiev, loov, finn having more top end potential than brown, leivo, leipsic, johnson, vesey, toninato, verhaeghe. it's more likely that at least 2 in the d group will be top 4d, than at least 2 from the latter group making top 6f.

 

[NotSince67*]

Ill post this here as I work throught it. Was wondering today at work how would Hanifin's number be in the CHL? So, here's what I'm doing

Noah Hanifin's point total pro-rated to 66 games (an OHL season): 66/37 (GP by Hanifin) * Points (23) = 41 (.02, insignificant)

Now, to convert to CHL, I will first convert using NHLe numbers found here: http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

So, overs 66 games, NHL, Hanifin is: 41 * .41 = 16.81

And to convert that to CHL, divide by the NHLe of CHL to NHL ( work backwards here) so: 16.88/0.29 = 57.9655, rounding up to 58.

So in this rudimentary method, Hanifin if he played 66 games in the OHL would translate to about 58 points.... 58 points in 66 games from a safe/steady '97.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

Ill post this here as I work throught it. Was wondering today at work how would Hanifin's number be in the CHL? So, here's what I'm doing

Noah Hanifin's point total pro-rated to 66 games (an OHL season): 66/37 (GP by Hanifin) * Points (23) = 41 (.02, insignificant)

Now, to convert to CHL, I will first convert using NHLe numbers found here: http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

So, overs 66 games, NHL, Hanifin is: 41 * .41 = 16.81

And to convert that to CHL, divide by the NHLe of CHL to NHL ( work backwards here) so: 16.88/0.29 = 57.9655, rounding up to 58.

So in this rudimentary method, Hanifin if he played 66 games in the OHL would translate to about 58 points.... 58 points in 66 games from a safe/steady '97.

Math checks out on this post.

 

[NotSince67*]

Bernier the Boats, glad you're on, because I'm anti-marner.

Well, not really. I DO really like Marner. In fact, versus Strome it's pretty much a really close race, with Marner having a lot of qualities I like, Strome having qualities I like, but Strome's skating is a really big worry for me. Marner does a lot of things right, he's a dilligent back checker, plays the trap and anticipates well. Most importantly, he not just fast, but he uses that skating in a similar way to Robby Fabbri that's he works hard ont he ice and is dilligent which forces turnovers and he's determined to steal pucks and win battles (although Fabbri is by far more physical and has more jam). His skating is above average and his skillset and vision make him to me a 60-70 point guy. BUT....

He's a winger. I'm sorry but as Button said in a neck and neck race the D-man and Center always will win, it's just a far more important position. No team has ever won with great wingers and poor centers and D-men (and most importantly goaltending). Even projecting him to be like patrick kane, I think there's enough in the pipeline with Brown and Nylander to not be worried about a lack of top-6 forwards, and with Leivo and Leipsic also likely, if they make the NHL, to challenge for those sorts of roles. It also highlight another issue which is the dirth of wingers are fairly similar in a lot of respects. Connor Brown is a poor man's Marner. Nylander is similar to Marner in many respects, although he does like to carry the puck more than MArner coming up the ice. I just don't see the point in drafting the same type of guy year over year.

Not to mention, trying to hit home-runs with forwards, especially with wingers, and your team starts to look like Edmonton.

 

[tooncesmeow]

Checking in for the Anti-Marner crew, if only becuase Strome/Hanifin would benefit the organization from a positional need so much more. They're all going to be great, so we should just snatch up the best center or defensemen, worry about the wingers later.

 

[tooncesmeow]

if it's a choice between kane and niedermeyer on the leafs next seasons, i'd say kane. we only have 1 blue chip forward coming up in nylander.

you can say jvr is a first liner and rielly will be one.

i'd rate percy, valiev, loov, finn having more top end potential than brown, leivo, leipsic, johnson, vesey, toninato, verhaeghe. it's more likely that at least 2 in the d group will be top 4d, than at least 2 from the latter group making top 6f.

You understand Niedermayer is a hall of famer and was crucial in the Stanley Cup victories of all his teams right?

If its Kane or Niedermayer, you taker Niedermayer, becuase at the end of the day he's one of the best, maybe Top 15, maybe Top 10 to ever play the position.

 

[NotSince67*]

Hanifin on the other case is a valuable commidity in my eyes. Right now, I see Hanifin as a guy who's going to play all situations, and is going to be a 20+ minute player. Offense be damned, his first pass is good VERY GOOD, and will generate enough offense by transitioning the puck up. His ability to hit forwards not just on the tape in flight, but at points where they're moving into areas which will easily gain the zone with speed or send them into the clear is very clear to me. He's not a guy who just tosses it ahead, he picks his option and when he delivers it with a purpose. He, to me is a single digit but around 30 assist guy, and that will be 5 on 5. That's huge.

A guy like Hanifin can really anchor a back end, be an all-purpose steady and reliable work horse that you can TRUST (...I mean who really trusts Pahneuf's decision making?). His number by the method above are pretty much SMACK on with Pietrangelo. His size, his skating.

Even if Hanifin ISN'T a HOF player, he's going to in all likely-hood be a perennial all-star. He's so much more valuable to this organization that a guy like Marner would be. And a guy like Hanifin would really set the foundation for the future. Even if he's NOT a Norris type player (which I'm pretty much sure is like a 10% chance he will be) he's got at least a 50% shot of being a top-pairing defenseman.

IMO, in that way, when you put it together:

Hard-working 60-70 point offensive winger < Smooth, realiable, mobile 20+ minute all-purpose D-man good for 40 or so points a year D-man.

 

[NotSince67*]

Bernier, I also think you may have a viewing bias.

By being a Knights season ticket holder, you really don;t get to see Marner play on the road. Huge disadvantage. Playing a team like say the Soo, he's going to be able to get away from Nurse because of the last change. For my home team you're talking about getting away from LeBlanc or Day and playing like bums like Nick the pylon Zottl.

 

[Knies iT]

Draft Hanifin.

Pursue Draisaitl.

Finish bottom 10 in '16.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

Hanifin on the other case is a valuable commidity in my eyes. Right now, I see Hanifin as a guy who's going to play all situations, and is going to be a 20+ minute player. Offense be damned, his first pass is good VERY GOOD, and will generate enough offense by transitioning the puck up. His ability to hit forwards not just on the tape in flight, but at points where they're moving into areas which will easily gain the zone with speed or send them into the clear is very clear to me. He's not a guy who just tosses it ahead, he picks his option and when he delivers it with a purpose. He, to me is a single digit but around 30 assist guy, and that will be 5 on 5. That's huge.

A guy like Hanifin can really anchor a back end, be an all-purpose steady and reliable work horse that you can TRUST (...I mean who really trusts Pahneuf's decision making?). His number by the method above are pretty much SMACK on with Pietrangelo. His size, his skating.

Even if Hanifin ISN'T a HOF player, he's going to in all likely-hood be a perennial all-star. He's so much more valuable to this organization that a guy like Marner would be. And a guy like Hanifin would really set the foundation for the future. Even if he's NOT a Norris type player (which I'm pretty much sure is like a 10% chance he will be) he's got at least a 50% shot of being a top-pairing defenseman.

IMO, in that way, when you put it together:

Hard-working 60-70 point offensive winger < Smooth, realiable, mobile 20+ minute all-purpose D-man good for 40 or so points a year D-man.

I appreciate the shout out. I have a couple issues with your logic. The first being that marner is a winger. He's played C in london and is a natural C, this was evident all playoffs. Secondly, I don't think position factors into drafting. You take the best player.

Lastly, why is marner pegged as a 60 point guy and hanifin a 40pt D? Marner has legit 90+ point upside, so calling him a 60pt guy is unfair. What often gets lost in the mix is that he's lethal on the PK and an overall great defensive player.

He's a potential 90pt two-way centre. Size be damned.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

Bernier, I also think you may have a viewing bias.

By being a Knights season ticket holder, you really don;t get to see Marner play on the road. Huge disadvantage. Playing a team like say the Soo, he's going to be able to get away from Nurse because of the last change. For my home team you're talking about getting away from LeBlanc or Day and playing like bums like Nick the pylon Zottl.

Not a season ticket holder mate. Just based in London so I watch on tv as the games are broadcasted locally. Also SNO broadcasts about a half dozen Knights games a year.

 

[080]

I really love what Marner brings: work ethic, energy, high skill, etc. but we do have a number of average-to-below-average-sized wingers in Brown, Nylander, and Johnson. I realize he can play C but again, we can`t make up our team entirely of smaller guys.

If Hanifin is available, we go with him. Marner reminds me a bit of guys like Huberdeau and Drouin who are highly-skilled but whose importance to their team isn`t that great. I`m sure if Tampa could have a do-over, they`d take Jones; likewise I`m sure if Florida could take one of the top-ranked d-men available (Larsson, Brodin, Hamilton) instead of Huberdeau, they likely would.

 

[NotSince67*]

I appreciate the shout out. I have a couple issues with your logic. The first being that marner is a winger. He's played C in london and is a natural C, this was evident all playoffs. Secondly, I don't think position factors into drafting. You take the best player.

Lastly, why is marner pegged as a 60 point guy and hanifin a 40pt D? Marner has legit 90+ point upside, so calling him a 60pt guy is unfair. What often gets lost in the mix is that he's lethal on the PK and an overall great defensive player.

He's a potential 90pt two-way centre. Size be damned.

I don't see Marner as a 90 point guy. That's pretty much saying that Marner is going to be in the top 5-7 in the NHL scoring race... perennially. I think you're WAY too big on him. Like he's the next Stamkos or Kessel or Ovechkin, Grioux. He's not, or at least it's so unlikely why even say that?

I'm projecting those totals as the player I see. Marner a PPG? Maybe, I don't see it though. First line scoring winger who has the ability to be a team leader in scoring maybe? That's close to 70 points. Even Patrick Kane if healthy is only around 80 pts or so. 70 is not lowballing, and 60 is correcting that draft-day optimism and potential is rarely fully achieved putting his production close to Vanek in his prime.

Hanifin the way I project to 40 points is base off seasons, whch I think he's very capable of, of 8G/32A types. Playing 20+ minutes on the top pairing and being a good puck mover. It;s in the ballpark or a Ryan McDonagh, Bouwmeester with Florida, but not quite as high as a Pietrangelo, nowhere near the ultra-offensive D-men like Subban and Karlsson.

And to me Hanifin IS the BPA, when you talk about projections. To me a a top-pairing defenseman is better than an 60-70 point winger. I mean, would you trade Ryan McDonagh straight up for Vanek? It's close. But I would say the defensman is more of a foundation to team success than the winger.

I also don't see MArner as a centre, simply because not necessarily size but his strength. He skates well enough to play all 200 feet and his defensive accument and compete are there, but I don't think once he gets to the NHL level that he'll have the strength to defend either in the slot or below the goal line. His assets are also really best utilized to me on the wing where he can help out defensively and get back but when defending the cycle he's in a position where once the puck is turnedover he's immediately a danger to break out with speed and create situations where he has lots of ice (1 on 1s, 2 on 2, 1 on 2 s) where he's forcing the defenceman to back in to respect his speed and giving him time and space to have options.

Also, with Hanifin, I think the maturity and safety to his game is a huge asset. While Offense gets bandied around much, he's not like say Subban who wasn;t a first rounder because of a high-risk style. He's reliable and and you really could if he develops how I see it, keep throwing him out there and be comfortable knowing he's not going to risk you anything and he;s not going to make mistakes. I feel his gap control needs work. I prefer how Provorov plays the line, I like the jam and competitiveness (downright intensity with Provorov) brings. But Hanfins's tools and style on the back end are definitely the making of a guy who can play defending top competition and do it in an efficient manner.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Hannifin-Rielly
Chychrun-Roy

Get it done shanny

 

[NotSince67*]

And in regard to the Provorov - Werenski - Hanifin debate... Werenski IMO is so much rawer and his D game needs to round out so much more than the other two.

Provorov is great. Wish he were a bit of a better skater like Hanifin, but he's certainly good enough. I guess the only thing with Provorov is he's a puck rusher, but more importantly his first pass isn't close to the level of Hanifin. I think Provorov has the ability to be a more dynamic talent, but Hanifin is safer and I thing plays closer to what the professional style is. If Provorov ever really got his first pass to the level of Hanifin, and his skating to the level of the puck rusher at the NHL level... he could be a real REAL good player. Think of a guy like Rielly but bigger, just as thick with real intensity and a bit of snarl.

 

[Bernier the Boats]

I don't see Marner as a 90 point guy. That's pretty much saying that Marner is going to be in the top 5-7 in the NHL scoring race... perennially. I think you're WAY too big on him. Like he's the next Stamkos or Kessel or Ovechkin, Grioux. He's not, or at least it's so unlikely why even say that?

I'm projecting those totals as the player I see. Marner a PPG? Maybe, I don't see it though. First line scoring winger who has the ability to be a team leader in scoring maybe? That's close to 70 points. Even Patrick Kane if healthy is only around 80 pts or so. 70 is not lowballing, and 60 is correcting that draft-day optimism and potential is rarely fully achieved putting his production close to Vanek in his prime.

Hanifin the way I project to 40 points is base off seasons, whch I think he's very capable of, of 8G/32A types. Playing 20+ minutes on the top pairing and being a good puck mover. It;s in the ballpark or a Ryan McDonagh, Bouwmeester with Florida, but not quite as high as a Pietrangelo, nowhere near the ultra-offensive D-men like Subban and Karlsson.

And to me Hanifin IS the BPA, when you talk about projections. To me a a top-pairing defenseman is better than an 60-70 point winger. I mean, would you trade Ryan McDonagh straight up for Vanek? It's close. But I would say the defensman is more of a foundation to team success than the winger.

I also don't see MArner as a centre, simply because not necessarily size but his strength. He skates well enough to play all 200 feet and his defensive accument and compete are there, but I don't think once he gets to the NHL level that he'll have the strength to defend either in the slot or below the goal line. His assets are also really best utilized to me on the wing where he can help out defensively and get back but when defending the cycle he's in a position where once the puck is turnedover he's immediately a danger to break out with speed and create situations where he has lots of ice (1 on 1s, 2 on 2, 1 on 2 s) where he's forcing the defenceman to back in to respect his speed and giving him time and space to have options.

Also, with Hanifin, I think the maturity and safety to his game is a huge asset. While Offense gets bandied around much, he's not like say Subban who wasn;t a first rounder because of a high-risk style. He's reliable and and you really could if he develops how I see it, keep throwing him out there and be comfortable knowing he's not going to risk you anything and he;s not going to make mistakes. I feel his gap control needs work. I prefer how Provorov plays the line, I like the jam and competitiveness (downright intensity with Provorov) brings. But Hanfins's tools and style on the back end are definitely the making of a guy who can play defending top competition and do it in an efficient manner.

Well, the list of players to outscore Marner in their draft years dating back to the year 2000:

John Tavares
Patrick Kane
Sidney Crosby
Dylan Strome (but worse PPG)
PM Bouchard

And in PPG: Spezza, Drouin, McDavid.

If you include playoffs he actually beats out Spezza and Bouchard in PPG.

Pretty darn special. Those guys turned out pretty good. He outscored Giroux, Stamkos, Hall, Seguin, Nugent-Hopkins, MacKinnon, Johansen, Nash etc.

Pretty unfair to label him as a 60 point guy.

Hanifin's a good prospect. Top pairing upside. Marner has superstar potential, the choice is easy for me.

People need to realize how unbelievably good Strome and Marner really are as prospects. It's crazy.