HF Habs: Goaltending Prospects/Young Players - Who to Keep Who to Trade

[Treb]

100% agree. I like Monty a lot more than Primeau.

Monty wasn't that great at Primeau's age.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree. The same goalie can’t play all the games. We found ourselves struggling to win games when Price wasn’t in. Playing him all those games would wear him out. When he was gone for long stretches like this year, we struggled horribly. I think a team is better able to absorb the loss of a key player when it’s not a goalie.

The only way a team can absorb a key loss is when it’s a good team to begin with.

Price was among the most impactful players in the league. It’s tragic we hired Therrien when he was in his prime. We turned down Jagr and added guys like Douglas Murray. That’s not building… it’s stupidity.

The core we had needed a good coach and a few pieces. We should’ve won at least one cup along the way.

People seem to think it’s great goalie or great team… it’s not. You want both. Look at the Lightning.

 

[RealityHurts]

I believe going into last year Carey Price was the only player who’s advanced into the 2nd round while making 10mil or more. Kane did it last year and Price did it a second time.

So… yes, you want to avoid ten mil contracts if you can. But he was worth the cash. Problem is we built crappy teams around him. And that wasn’t because of his contract. We simply had a terrible GM.

Moreover we could’ve won cups in 2014-16 if we’d had better teams. Price was making 6 mil back then. If you have an ace player, pay him. But don’t surround him with trash.

Btw, we beat a team with three players making ten mil plus in the first round last year because our goalie stood on his head.

You don't get my point. NO team has won with such an expensive goaltender, but teams HAVE won with expensive forwards.

You're right that Price is an impactful player: this is why he is paid accordingly. However, history has shown that paying goaltenders as much as you'd pay a star forward does not yield results.

If you're gonna pay him for his impact and the contract is that high, then you ARE building around him.

EDIT:

I just found out the TBL won with Vasi at 9.5m. That being said, I would overule it because they circumvented the cap with the Kucherov situation. Also, they have lower taxes so all their players are signed cheaper.

 

[Habs]

You don't get my point. NO team has won with such an expensive goaltender, but teams HAVE won with expensive forwards.

You're right that Price is an impactful player, and should be paid accordingly. However, history has shown that paying goaltenders as much as you'd pay a star forward does not yield results.

If you're gonna pay him for his impact, and the contract is that high, then you ARE building around him.

EDIT:

I just found out the TBL won with Vasi at 9.5m. That being said, I would overule it because they circumvented the cap with the Kucherov situation. Also, they have lower taxes so all their players are signed cheaper.

this is 100% true

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You don't get my point. NO team has won with such an expensive goaltender, but teams HAVE won with expensive forwards.

You're right that Price is an impactful player, and should be paid accordingly. However, history has shown that paying goaltenders as much as you'd pay a star forward does not yield results.

If you're gonna pay him for his impact, and the contract is that high, then you ARE building around him.

EDIT:

I just found out the TBL won with Vasi at 9.5m. That being said, I would overule it because they circumvented the cap with the Kucherov situation. Also, they have lower taxes so all their players are signed cheaper.

You are wrong.

Until last year only one player making 10 mil had made it past the first round: Carey Price. After last year only one player has done it twice: Carey Price.

And last year Vasilevski won the cup making 9.5 million dollars.

Btw, only one other goalie has cracked the 10 mil barrier: Bobrovski.

 

[RealityHurts]

You are wrong.

Until last year only one player making 10 mil had made it past the first round: Carey Price. After last year only one player has done it twice: Carey Price.

And last year Vasilevski won the cup making 9.5 million dollars.

Btw, only one other goalie has cracked the 10 mil barrier: Bobrovski.

We shouldn't only be looking at the salary itself. In many cases, a contract is signed at an earlier year under a lower cap. This is why I used the term ''expensive forwards''. When they signed their contracts, in the year they signed it, in many cases, they would be worth 9-10m+ in today's NHL era.

I feel like you're tweaking results and blatantly omitting many relevant factors. An example of this would be you using 10mil as a threshold and conveniently naming Carey Price and stating no forward has made it past that point only to then name Vasi at 9.5m.

Factors I think you omitted or didn't consider:

1) Cap circumvention through IR use (e.g: Vasi and TBL with Kucherov injury);
2) Year of signature of contract (e.g. Crosby, Ovechkin). Note: Ovechkin won with a salary of 9.5m unless I'm mistaken, so why would you then set threshold of forwards at 10m+ and then conveniently mention Vasi at 9.5m?
3) Tax situation;
4) History and winning goaltenders;

There have been average/slightly over average goaltenders that won stanley cups. In most cases, their salary was definitely lower than another forward on the team. On top of my head, Fleury, Holtby and Niemi all won with contracts that were 3-6.5m in value.

The only team I know that has won with an expensive goaltender is TBL with Vasi and I honestly believe that a combination of lower tax and cap circumvention is the biggest reason they won. Under normal circumstances, you do not win stanley cup with the most expensive player being the goaltender in modern day NHL. It's as simple as that. Why argue against it? It's never happened... There are no ''what if'' or ''It's because we had Desharnais''! History has been written.

Price is good, but it was doomed to begin with from the structure of having him as the highest paid on the line-up. He can't score goals by himself.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We shouldn't only be looking at the salary itself. In many cases, a contract is signed at an earlier year under a lower cap. This is why I used the term ''expensive forwards''. When they signed their contracts, in the year they signed it, in many cases, they would be worth 9-10m+ in today's NHL era.

I feel like you're tweaking results and blatantly omitting many relevant factors. An example of this would be you using 10mil as a threshold and conveniently naming Carey Price and stating no forward has made it past that point only to then name Vasi at 9.5m.

Factors I think you omitted or didn't consider:

1) Cap circumvention through IR use (e.g: Vasi and TBL with Kucherov injury);
2) Year of signature of contract (e.g. Crosby, Ovechkin). Note: Ovechkin won with a salary of 9.5m unless I'm mistaken, so why would you then set threshold of forwards at 10m+ and then conveniently mention Vasi at 9.5m?
3) Tax situation;
4) History and winning goaltenders;

There have been average/slightly over average goaltenders that won stanley cups. In most cases, their salary was definitely lower than another forward on the team. On top of my head, Fleury, Holtby and Niemi all won with contracts that were 3-6.5m in value.

The only team I know that has won with an expensive goaltender is TBL with Vasi and I honestly believe that a combination of lower tax and cap circumvention is the biggest reason they won. Under normal circumstances, you do not win stanley cup with the most expensive player being the goaltender in modern day NHL. It's as simple as that. Why argue against it? It's never happened... There are no ''what if'' or ''It's because we had Desharnais''! History has been written.

Price is good, but it was doomed to begin with from the structure of having him as the highest paid on the line-up. He can't score goals by himself.

Slice it up however you want. Price is the only 10 mil player to have made the finals and he lost to a guy making 9.5 on a stacked team. And there are only two goalies making 10 mil to begin with.

Price beat three guys making ten mil plus in the first round. Elite goaltending can take you a long way. Both Lundqvist and Price took their mediocre clubs to the finals. Thomas, Quick and Luongo all made the finals or won cups. Elite goalies are important and always have been.

But that doesn’t mean you should get the best goalie and use Desharnais as your first line center.

 

[RealityHurts]

Slice it up however you want. Price is the only 10 mil player to have made the finals and he lost to a guy making 9.5 on a stacked team. And there are only two goalies making 10 mil to begin with.

Price beat three guys making ten mil plus in the first round. Elite goaltending can take you a long way. Both Lundqvist and Price took their mediocre clubs to the finals. Thomas, Quick and Luongo all made the finals or won cups. Elite goalies are important and always have been.

But that doesn’t mean you should get the best goalie and use Desharnais as your first line center.

I mean, Leafs have some serious issues to figure out. I wouldn't count them as a stepping stone for forwards not being worth the cash. They've yet to get past the 1st round under their core.

I think most people will agree you need a decent goaltender, but that's all there is to it imo. He could be elite too. But overall, teams that have won the cup have always had forwards that were higher paid than their goaltender in the past 10 years I believe. Does that mean goaltenders weren't important? Probably not. It just means you build around forwards, and this is why our approach is bad to begin with. We have Price as our highest paid player. If he's the biggest cruncher on the cap, then your team is committed to him. However, he hasn't won. Came close, but didn't win. We didn't score enough goals vs TBL, we need better forwards.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I mean, Leafs have some serious issues to figure out. I wouldn't count them as a stepping stone for forwards not being worth the cash. They've yet to get past the 1st round under their core.

I think most people will agree you need a decent goaltender, but that's all there is to it imo. He could be elite too. But overall, teams that have won the cup have always had forwards that were higher paid than their goaltender in the past 10 years I believe. Does that mean goaltenders weren't important? Probably not. It just means you build around forwards, and this is why our approach is bad to begin with. We have Price as our highest paid player. If he's the biggest cruncher on the cap, then your team is committed to him. However, he hasn't won. Came close, but didn't win. We didn't score enough goals vs TBL, we need better forwards.

Many different ways to skin a cat. I’m not arguing you need elite goaltending to win. You don’t. But you don’t need elite scoring either. It’s about balance.

That being said, if you have the chance to get the best goalie in the league, you take it. Because… why the hell wouldn’t you? And if you get that player then go after great scorers and blueliners too. It’s not one or the other. You don’t need to make a choice.

Get both.

Btw, most teams who win cups won’t have elite goaltending. Why? Because there are usually only a few elite goalies in the league to begin with. But, the best goalie in the league almost always makes it to the finals at some point in his career. Quite often beating superior teams along the way. They are huge difference makers.

 

[Gravity]

Monty wasn't that great at Primeau's age.

He still isn't that great.

 

[Schwang]

Monty wasn't that great at Primeau's age.

True. But we do need a goalie for at least a couple years. Even if Primeau makes it, it'll be at least that long.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Dobes - stopped 32 of 36, was very good in the loss, 1st time all season he's lost 3 in a row. He leads the NCAA in saves with 995. Tonight is the final regular season game for Ohio State as they have a bye week next weekend and then the Big 10 playoffs will start.

Congrats on 1k subscribes boss, no small feat. Without you and Adam I wouldn't be reading HF nearly as much.

Do you have both Dobes and Dichow above Primeau now?

 

[montreal]

Congrats on 1k subscribes boss, no small feat. Without you and Adam I wouldn't be reading HF nearly as much.

Do you have both Dobes and Dichow above Primeau now?

Thanks!

not yet, Dichow I haven't seen enough of yet, if he's in Frolunda next year though I will get to see a decent amount of him. Dobes is real close, it's tougher though because Primeau just smoked Dobes at 18 and 19, as he had one of the best age 18 and 19 seasons i've ever seen in the NCAA from non weak conferences. But Dobes looks legit and Primeau I now worry if he can be successful in the NHL after getting lit up so badly this past 2 seasons in front of shit defense. That said he's been really good in the AHL so I still have hope but he's got to find consistency in the NHL.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[Le Cobra]

Give Hammond the starting job and you are most likely back in playoff contention next season

 

[Treb]

Give Hammond the starting job and you are most likely back in playoff contention next season

Just like Condon, Tokarski, Niemi, Lindgren, Budaj, Allen....

 

[Seb]

What do you guys think of Vrbetic?

Dobes and Dichow both seem to be doing great and are getting a lot of attention but I really liked what I saw from Vrbetic during the Habs camp.

 

[Treb]

What do you guys think of Vrbetic?

Dobes and Dichow both seem to be doing great and are getting a lot of attention but I really liked what I saw from Vrbetic during the Habs camp.

Not as great as Dobes and Dichow, but still doing good. He was named OHL goalie of the month in November, a first for his team since 2010.

 

[Forsead]

We shouldn't only be looking at the salary itself. In many cases, a contract is signed at an earlier year under a lower cap. This is why I used the term ''expensive forwards''. When they signed their contracts, in the year they signed it, in many cases, they would be worth 9-10m+ in today's NHL era.

I feel like you're tweaking results and blatantly omitting many relevant factors. An example of this would be you using 10mil as a threshold and conveniently naming Carey Price and stating no forward has made it past that point only to then name Vasi at 9.5m.

Factors I think you omitted or didn't consider:

1) Cap circumvention through IR use (e.g: Vasi and TBL with Kucherov injury);
2) Year of signature of contract (e.g. Crosby, Ovechkin). Note: Ovechkin won with a salary of 9.5m unless I'm mistaken, so why would you then set threshold of forwards at 10m+ and then conveniently mention Vasi at 9.5m?
3) Tax situation;
4) History and winning goaltenders;

There have been average/slightly over average goaltenders that won stanley cups. In most cases, their salary was definitely lower than another forward on the team. On top of my head, Fleury, Holtby and Niemi all won with contracts that were 3-6.5m in value.

The only team I know that has won with an expensive goaltender is TBL with Vasi and I honestly believe that a combination of lower tax and cap circumvention is the biggest reason they won. Under normal circumstances, you do not win stanley cup with the most expensive player being the goaltender in modern day NHL. It's as simple as that. Why argue against it? It's never happened... There are no ''what if'' or ''It's because we had Desharnais''! History has been written.

Price is good, but it was doomed to begin with from the structure of having him as the highest paid on the line-up. He can't score goals by himself.

Yeah, it is much more nuanced picture. If you take cap percentage :

Khabibulin was once a 14.1M to a 9.7M goalie (when he managed a deep run) in today's cap hit.
Brodeur was once a 9.9M goalie (got to the second round) in today's cap hit.
Lundqvist was once a 10M goalie (when he managed a deep run) in today's cap hit.
Giguere was consistently a 8.0M goalie in today's cap hit (won the cup and all).
Theodore was tradeable as a 11.1M goalie (see 2005-2006) in today's cap hit.

The real threshold for success seems to pay your star goalie around more like a 7-9M in today's cap hit instead of 10-11 + M though.

 

[RealityHurts]

Yeah, it is much more nuanced picture. If you take cap percentage :

Khabibulin was once a 14.1M to a 9.7M goalie (when he managed a deep run) in today's cap hit.
Brodeur was once a 9.9M goalie (got to the second round) in today's cap hit.
Lundqvist was once a 10M goalie (when he managed a deep run) in today's cap hit.
Giguere was consistently a 8.0M goalie in today's cap hit (won the cup and all).
Theodore was tradeable as a 11.1M goalie (see 2005-2006) in today's cap hit.

The real threshold for success seems to pay your star goalie around more like a 7-9M in today's cap hit instead of 10-11 + M though.

I feel like the most important thing to grasp from this whole thing is, at the time of a stanley cup winning goaltender's success, there was always a forward that was paid more or at least as much. From that standpoint, it would be more accurate to state that the team was built around the forward.

I count Vasi's case with TBL as an outlier, but even then, he bears the same salary as Kucherov. The star forward is still there.

My conclusion: in modern day NHL, you build around a forward first and foremost. It doesn't mean you shouldn't have an elite goaltender, but he shouldn't be the primary and most expensive piece

 

[Schwang]

He still isn't that great.

You were saying?

 

[WickedPegJets]

You are wrong.

Until last year only one player making 10 mil had made it past the first round: Carey Price. After last year only one player has done it twice: Carey Price.

And last year Vasilevski won the cup making 9.5 million dollars.

Btw, only one other goalie has cracked the 10 mil barrier: Bobrovski.

Even if the Leafs could afford a $10 M per year goalie, they still wouldn’t have won a Round 1 playoff series. A goalie should not be your highest paid player. Just look at the three Cups won by Quennville’s Blackhawks.

 

[WickedPegJets]

I say Ken Dryden was the greatest Habs goalie of all times.

 

[Goldenhands]

Dobes is at least as dominant as Primeau was in the NCAA, has superior athleticism but the main difference between the 2 is the puck management around the net. Primeau is and has always been pretty limited in that area of the game while Dobes is much better at it.

Still believe in Primeau since he barely played with Covid seasons and lost some mileage. 22 yrs old is extremmely young for a goaltender. Not sure what I would do at this point, kid cant come back in the AHL next year, so Im curious to see what happens next.

 

[Destopcorner]

Monty deserves more respect in this conversation. Big, talented, young... but mostly a gamer. Fire in his eyes don't lie. Gotta give him a less dreadful defense before judging him out of #1 position... Even Price wouldn't have done better in the circumstances.