Goalie controversy thread

[Stupendous Yappi]

There was a graphic shown last night on expected goals which I may have misread. It seemed to show that Binnington was pretty close to neutral in saves vs expected goals (nearly 0) while Husso’s numbers showed he had a lot better goals vs expected goals. Maybe it was over a shorter period of time than the whole season, because when I look at Moneypuck Binnington is letting in about 0.2 goals/game more than expected and Husso is saving about 0.55 goals more than expected per game.

I was surprised to see John Gibson doing so poorly this year, and Fleury nearly at the bottom allowing 0.4 goals per game above expected when he was just acquired by Minnesota. Also surprised to see how good of a season Quick is having.

I wonder if there is any smoke to Armstrong trying to move Binnington and whether he may be able to do so in the off-season.

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

 

[ChicagoBlues]

For the love of God brother, preach!

Bright light! Strong salt!

 

[TheDizee]

I find it funny how many of the people who used to blame Allen for losses and gave no blame to the rest of the team other than to say they played differently in front of him have now flipped the script and blame the team without placing the same blame on Binny. I've held off on making a determination on Binny just for the sake of making sure I didn't cherry pick. I don't even feel like Binny is an average goalie in the league anymore. I'd put him a level below Allen even, certainly no better.

His stats show he is worse than the typical backup goaltender this season.

People still view him with their 2019 glasses on, which is what warps their views on his play this season IMO

 

[TruBlu]

His stats show he is worse than the typical backup goaltender this season.

People still view him with their 2019 glasses on, which is what warps their views on his play this season IMO

Which is exactly why you don't give a guy that kind of money just because he was in net when we won the cup. All teams needed was a solid season of tape on Binny and he's now a backup goalie.

 

[Stealth JD]

Signing any goalie beyond 3 or 4 years is asinine. But Army put himself in a bad corner with the handling of Binnington's deals. If he lets him walk, he gets crucified by the fans, so instead he's forced to sign him for way more than he otherwise would have been comfortable. Binner's agent for sure maximized his client's value and got him paid. But I'll be shocked if he's around as even the backup in four years. With the way Army allocates the dollars, he going to have to find a way out of that deal unless Binnington can show he's clearly capable of 1G duties.

 

[TheDizee]

Ville Husso’s save percentage is .899 in his last seven games, and Jordan Binnington has a .882 save percentage in his last four.

 

[BlueSeal]

Ville Husso’s save percentage is .899 in his last seven games, and Jordan Binnington has a .882 save percentage in his last four.

Might have something to do with Army tooling the blueline to contribute to an aggressive offense approach? I expect netminding stats to suffer while we load up on points… when the team decides it wants to show up, that is.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

you honestly think chucky sideburns cant perform better than binner has?

chucky sideburns was spitting out all star numbers with a half AHL roster in front of him.

The xga in games husso and binny played are 2.89 and 2.93.

The xga in the 4 games lindgrem played was 2.32. He had an easy schedule not to mention it was 4 freakin games.

Look at hutchinson and wedgewood careers and how they can look amazing or terrible based on small samples

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I find it funny how many of the people who used to blame Allen for losses and gave no blame to the rest of the team other than to say they played differently in front of him have now flipped the script and blame the team without placing the same blame on Binny. I've held off on making a determination on Binny just for the sake of making sure I didn't cherry pick. I don't even feel like Binny is an average goalie in the league anymore. I'd put him a level below Allen even, certainly no better.

Binny hasnt been average this year. However gialies have been known to be inconsistent year to year. He could come back next year and be league average again.

Its a terrible contract and hes been bad this year. Im just not buying into chucky sideburn madness on 4 game sample size. Look at how hussos numbers have been trending back to the mean over larger sample.

 

[oPlaiD]

There was a graphic shown last night on expected goals which I may have misread. It seemed to show that Binnington was pretty close to neutral in saves vs expected goals (nearly 0) while Husso’s numbers showed he had a lot better goals vs expected goals. Maybe it was over a shorter period of time than the whole season, because when I look at Moneypuck Binnington is letting in about 0.2 goals/game more than expected and Husso is saving about 0.55 goals more than expected per game.

I was surprised to see John Gibson doing so poorly this year, and Fleury nearly at the bottom allowing 0.4 goals per game above expected when he was just acquired by Minnesota. Also surprised to see how good of a season Quick is having.

I wonder if there is any smoke to Armstrong trying to move Binnington and whether he may be able to do so in the off-season.

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected

moneypuck.com

If you look at the advanced stats on Moneypuck or Evolving Hockey or wherever, they mostly agree that Husso has been the #3 starting goalie this season on a per game basis (I'm arbitrarily counting this at 20+ GP) behind Shesterkin and Andersen and that Binnington is slightly below replacement level.

On Evolving Hockey, for example, the numbers show Husso saving 0.851 more goals above replacement per 60 minutes than Binnington, so the difference between the two netminders has almost been about a goal per game.

In 2018-2019, though, Jordan Binnington played 32 games in the regular season and put up 0.665 GAR/60. That's a bit worse than Husso's 0.763 this season in a handful more games, but it shows Binnington has the ability to put up similar numbers potentially. Of course, last season Husso played 17 games and put up -0.051 GAR/60, very similar to the -0.088 Binnington has in 30 games this year. The past two years Binnington was around 0.35 in 90 GP, which is basically fine and seems like it should be about his true talent level. This season, it's pretty clear though, something is off with Binnington and Husso is playing well. And the team isn't playing well enough to cover for the difference.

Really it's all just part of the voodoo of goaltending. The only real way to win I think is to not hand out contracts like the one Armstrong gave Binnington, to not trade 1st round picks for Ryan Miller, or do any of the many other things Armstrong has done with goalies. That or luck into Dominik Hasek. Can't complain too much about Armstrong's tenure as GM but it's clear handling goaltending is not his strength. I also don't envy the decisions he'll have to make this offseason. There's some optimism we'll be able to move Binnington but it seems more probably to me we're stuck with him. That isn't necessarily a death sentence since I don't think he'll play this poorly forever... but with goalies, who knows.

 

[Celtic Note]

If you look at the advanced stats on Moneypuck or Evolving Hockey or wherever, they mostly agree that Husso has been the #3 starting goalie this season on a per game basis (I'm arbitrarily counting this at 20+ GP) behind Shesterkin and Andersen and that Binnington is slightly below replacement level.

On Evolving Hockey, for example, the numbers show Husso saving 0.851 more goals above replacement per 60 minutes than Binnington, so the difference between the two netminders has almost been about a goal per game.

In 2018-2019, though, Jordan Binnington played 32 games in the regular season and put up 0.665 GAR/60. That's a bit worse than Husso's 0.763 this season in a handful more games, but it shows Binnington has the ability to put up similar numbers potentially. Of course, last season Husso played 17 games and put up -0.051 GAR/60, very similar to the -0.088 Binnington has in 30 games this year. The past two years Binnington was around 0.35 in 90 GP, which is basically fine and seems like it should be about his true talent level. This season, it's pretty clear though, something is off with Binnington and Husso is playing well. And the team isn't playing well enough to cover for the difference.

Really it's all just part of the voodoo of goaltending. The only real way to win I think is to not hand out contracts like the one Armstrong gave Binnington, to not trade 1st round picks for Ryan Miller, or do any of the many other things Armstrong has done with goalies. That or luck into Dominik Hasek. Can't complain too much about Armstrong's tenure as GM but it's clear handling goaltending is not his strength. I also don't envy the decisions he'll have to make this offseason. There's some optimism we'll be able to move Binnington but it seems more probably to me we're stuck with him. That isn't necessarily a death sentence since I don't think he'll play this poorly forever... but with goalies, who knows.

I agree that Army doesn’t have an eye for goaltending.

At the time that Halak went on his tear with Montreal, we were seeing a goalie on a hot streak. I didn’t love seeing us trade for him because I never thought he would be the guy to help us win a Cup.

I still don’t love keeping Halak and Elliot over Bishop. I know many here will disagree. I thought Bishop would be the best goalie out of those three before he put it all together in the NHL. He did turn out to be the best of the bunch. I would have rolled with Bishop and Elliott, moving Halak for something comparable or better than what we got for Bishop.

The trade for Miller was very misguided in my book. I could never see the allure. Miller had name recognition and fans / media talked him up, but the fit never made sense to me.

The anointing Allen starter before he showed he could handle the role was bit premature and problematic. The contract he got as a result was an even worse decision. This coming from someone who didn’t hold Allen in such a dark view.

The mishandling of the Binnington extensions is something that many of us could see unfolding, yet it happened anyway.

Some may not agree with some of these statements, but I am hoping most of us can agree that this is an area of weakness for Army.

That doesn’t mean he is a bad GM, it’s just not one of his better capabilities.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If you look at the advanced stats on Moneypuck or Evolving Hockey or wherever, they mostly agree that Husso has been the #3 starting goalie this season on a per game basis (I'm arbitrarily counting this at 20+ GP) behind Shesterkin and Andersen and that Binnington is slightly below replacement level.

On Evolving Hockey, for example, the numbers show Husso saving 0.851 more goals above replacement per 60 minutes than Binnington, so the difference between the two netminders has almost been about a goal per game.

In 2018-2019, though, Jordan Binnington played 32 games in the regular season and put up 0.665 GAR/60. That's a bit worse than Husso's 0.763 this season in a handful more games, but it shows Binnington has the ability to put up similar numbers potentially. Of course, last season Husso played 17 games and put up -0.051 GAR/60, very similar to the -0.088 Binnington has in 30 games this year. The past two years Binnington was around 0.35 in 90 GP, which is basically fine and seems like it should be about his true talent level. This season, it's pretty clear though, something is off with Binnington and Husso is playing well. And the team isn't playing well enough to cover for the difference.

Really it's all just part of the voodoo of goaltending. The only real way to win I think is to not hand out contracts like the one Armstrong gave Binnington, to not trade 1st round picks for Ryan Miller, or do any of the many other things Armstrong has done with goalies. That or luck into Dominik Hasek. Can't complain too much about Armstrong's tenure as GM but it's clear handling goaltending is not his strength. I also don't envy the decisions he'll have to make this offseason. There's some optimism we'll be able to move Binnington but it seems more probably to me we're stuck with him. That isn't necessarily a death sentence since I don't think he'll play this poorly forever... but with goalies, who knows.

I don't think 'average starter' is the same things as 'replacement level'. Its hard to get an average starter in the NHL, and many teams don't have that. I'm not arguing that Binnington has been better than he has been, but I think the words 'replacement level' suggest that you can easily find a goalie that can perform at the break even level on xGA. That's not how I understand those stats. They are showing what an league average goalie would be expected to save based on the totality of the shots taken from that location league-wide.

Your post is restating the same stats I was mentioning, but the graphic that was shown during the last game seemed to show Binnington with slightly better xGA stats. It wasn't up long enough for me to understand what the discrepancy was, but I suspect maybe it was a shorter period of time than the full season to date. That's really what I was trying to ask about, if anyone else caught the graphic.

As for Binnington's season, I've already stated on here multiple times that I think its pretty reasonable to expect him to return to his prior form as a reliable slightly above average (mid-tier) starter. Who is Husso really? If he got a starter's workload for the season, is he a Top 10 guy? Top 5? After his struggles last season, I didn't see this dominance coming. But there is a big difference between being a great back-up and being able to be counted on as the starter. After the rumors at the trade deadline, I get the sense that Armstrong would be happy to lock up Husso and trade Binnington if it could be managed. It would probably free up enough salary to go after another desirable player.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I agree that Army doesn’t have an eye for goaltending.

At the time that Halak went on his tear with Montreal, we were seeing a goalie on a hot streak. I didn’t love seeing us trade for him because I never thought he would be the guy to help us win a Cup.

I still don’t love keeping Halak and Elliot over Bishop. I know many here will disagree. I thought Bishop would be the best goalie out of those three before he put it all together in the NHL. He did turn out to be the best of the bunch. I would have rolled with Bishop and Elliott, moving Halak for something comparable or better than what we got for Bishop.

The trade for Miller was very misguided in my book. I could never see the allure. Miller had name recognition and fans / media talked him up, but the fit never made sense to me.

The anointing Allen starter before he showed he could handle the role was bit premature and problematic. The contract he got as a result was an even worse decision. This coming from someone who didn’t hold Allen in such a dark view.

The mishandling of the Binnington extensions is something that many of us could see unfolding, yet it happened anyway.

Some may not agree with some of these statements, but I am hoping most of us can agree that this is an area of weakness for Army.

That doesn’t mean he is a bad GM, it’s just not one of his better capabilities.

I don't disagree with a lot of that, but I also note that Armstrong has generally had a knack for bringing in veteran back-ups who perform great. Chad Johnson is the only real exception to that I can remember in recent times.

 

[DatDude44]

Are goalies becoming the Running backs of the nhl? Obviously not as aggressively as nfl RB’s get released & replaced etc…or have dominant and down years back to back, Most measured success/ failure due to the team around them tho etc….. idk, maybe I’m grasping at straws here

 

[oPlaiD]

Are goalies becoming the Running backs of the nhl? Obviously not as aggressively as nfl RB’s get released & replaced etc…or have dominant and down years back to back, Most measured success/ failure due to the team around them tho etc….. idk, maybe I’m grasping at straws here

The comparison makes some sense in that most of the players at those positions are fungible. There are more and more athletic players who can run the ball through a hole quickly and absorb hits. There are tons of athletic goalies who can get into a butterfly while square to a shooter and cover most of the net. The number of players who can really improve on that baseline level are few and far between.

The difference in the comparison I think is that RB performance fluctuation has more to do with the offensive line around them and goaltending performance has more to do with straight up luck.

I don't think 'average starter' is the same things as 'replacement level'. Its hard to get an average starter in the NHL, and many teams don't have that. I'm not arguing that Binnington has been better than he has been, but I think the words 'replacement level' suggest that you can easily find a goalie that can perform at the break even level on xGA. That's not how I understand those stats. They are showing what an league average goalie would be expected to save based on the totality of the shots taken from that location league-wide.

Your post is restating the same stats I was mentioning, but the graphic that was shown during the last game seemed to show Binnington with slightly better xGA stats. It wasn't up long enough for me to understand what the discrepancy was, but I suspect maybe it was a shorter period of time than the full season to date. That's really what I was trying to ask about, if anyone else caught the graphic.

As for Binnington's season, I've already stated on here multiple times that I think its pretty reasonable to expect him to return to his prior form as a reliable slightly above average (mid-tier) starter. Who is Husso really? If he got a starter's workload for the season, is he a Top 10 guy? Top 5? After his struggles last season, I didn't see this dominance coming. But there is a big difference between being a great back-up and being able to be counted on as the starter. After the rumors at the trade deadline, I get the sense that Armstrong would be happy to lock up Husso and trade Binnington if it could be managed. It would probably free up enough salary to go after another desirable player.

The numbers I listed are all from Evolving Hockey and use replacement level as their baseline. I remember the graphic you're referencing appearing briefly on the broadcast the other night but I don't remember what they were showing.

Moneypuck lists their stats versus "expected" which would seem to indicate measuring against an average, but I'm not sure that's the methodology. They also have a "wins above replacement" stat on their goaltending numbers which lists Husso at 2.46 and Binnington at -1.05, so while the expected stat may sound like it's showing Binnington a bit below average the other stat places him clearly below replacement level this season.

The two seasons prior to this one seem to indicate that Binnington is an average-to-slighty-above-average goaltender and it's reasonable to think he will play at that level in the future, but betting our season on it happening right now is a rocky proposition.

As I said before I don't envy the decisions Armstrong needs to make to deal with these issues. Even if we do manage to trade Binnington away I wouldn't be surprise to see him go on to have a better rest of his career than Husso. All I know is right now, Binnington isn't playing like an NHL starter.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

They both now suck....there, I said it.

No goalie controversy anymore. Problem solved.

 

[TheDizee]

They both now suck....there, I said it.

No goalie controversy anymore. Problem solved.

chucky sideburns doesnt

 

[AjaxManifesto]

chucky sideburns doesnt

At this point, bring him up and several other AHL guys. Put them on the 3rd and 4th lines. Sit some vets and established young guys like Kyrou and Thomas. Just losing doesn't appear to be enough to motivate these guys to play 60 minutes.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

chucky sideburns doesnt

Dude husso was king awhile ago til he vooled off. Lindgren will get lit up if he comes up here. He faced easy competition and has often gotten lit up in the ahl. Plus we need to gwt either binny kr husso out of there funk ifnwe want to have shot of doing anything in olayoffs. We arent gojng anywhere in playoffs with lindgren as freaking starter

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Dude husso was king awhile ago til he vooled off. Lindgren will get lit up if he comes up here. He faced easy competition and has often gotten lit up in the ahl. Plus we need to gwt either binny kr husso out of there funk ifnwe want to have shot of doing anything in olayoffs. We arent gojng anywhere in playoffs with lindgren as freaking starter

Yes and no. I don’t think it’s remotely likely that lindgren has gone from journeyman to vasilevski this year, but if other 2 are struggling might be worth a shot to give him couple starts. Other goalies like him were middling until they weren’t. Wouldn’t be the first random goalie to save a season. And if he comes back to earth, neither one of the other guys has been worth a damn all month.

 

[TheDizee]

isnt it funny how this teams main issue is lack of fight/consistent 60 minute effort

yet every game they played infront of chucky sideburns, that was not the case. in fact, Bortuzzo RAVED about playing hard infront of him because hes such a good teammate to play hard for.

if the blues miss the playoffs, the way they handled chucky sideburns will be the turning point. the team has not looked the same since they decided to start Binner before the last game before Xmas break.

its no surprise the team played their best hockey of the season during the covid nonsense and that Chucky Sideburns was the key spark to their play.

 

[TheDizee]

2 joke goalies and a joke defensive effort every night

 

[WATTAGE4451]

isnt it funny how this teams main issue is lack of fight/consistent 60 minute effort

yet every game they played infront of chucky sideburns, that was not the case. in fact, Bortuzzo RAVED about playing hard infront of him because hes such a good teammate to play hard for.

if the blues miss the playoffs, the way they handled chucky sideburns will be the turning point. the team has not looked the same since they decided to start Binner before the last game before Xmas break.

its no surprise the team played their best hockey of the season during the covid nonsense and that Chucky Sideburns was the key spark to their play.

Lol, he faced detroit, montreal, and dallas twive. Thats why we played better.

Binnington had a decent couple games vs philly and chicago not to long ago. Its what happens when you face weaker teams.

I almost want lindgren to get called up so that he can get lit up and the rest of you people will shut up finally and get over this silly.madness. do you think toronto sees their sending hutchinson down last year as the downfall of their playoff performance? Lol. Well this year he certainly disproved that if you think that.

And blurs are very unlikely to miss playoffs. We have huge lead over final playocf spot when you take into account the games in hand. Its possible, but if we are to play that bad, lindgren isnt going to be a savior or going to lead us to victory in playoffs.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

The Blurs!!!! Love it!!!!

 

[Hinterland]

Dude husso was king awhile ago til he vooled off. Lindgren will get lit up if he comes up here. He faced easy competition and has often gotten lit up in the ahl. Plus we need to gwt either binny kr husso out of there funk ifnwe want to have shot of doing anything in olayoffs. We arent gojng anywhere in playoffs with lindgren as freaking starter

He didn't. The schedule just got tougher. Husso's been great all season long. I agree regarding Lindgren though. Having said that, I still think they missed out on the chance to give Binnington an extended break and a chance for a reset. If he's ever to play up to his contract, Binnington needs a reset. Don't know if it would have worked but they really should have tried.