Value of: Getting Matt Murray out of Toronto

[Qwijibo]

Yes.

I’d love to see it

 

[Leaf Fans]

I’d love to see it

Sure, a lot of people wanted to see the double offer sheet on Marner and Kappenen where two GMs would conspire to screw over the Leafs too.

 

[Qwijibo]

Sure, a lot of people wanted to see the double offer sheet on Marner and Kappenen where two GMs would conspire to screw over the Leafs too.

One agent using leverage to get his client a good deal seems a lot more likely to me.

 

[Leaf Fans]

One agent using leverage to get his client a good deal seems a lot more likely to me.

Yup, they will probably elect to go to arbitration.

 

[Voight]

We can’t have that 2M cap hit next season.

Caps going up by a lot.

 

[Discoverer]

Josh Bailey was owed 3.5 mil this season prior to being bought out. Murray is owed 8 mil this season (6 mil from the Leafs). That amount of salary has almost always cost a 1st to move.

I'm guessing Murray gets bought out after they take Samsonov to arbitration, the question is what else Toronto does because they probably need to clear more salary.

Moving Mrazek only cost them a drop from 25 to 38 in the draft, so the actual price to move him was nowhere close to a 1st, and he cost way more actual money ($8.6M vs. $6M) and a worse cap impact (2 years at $3.8M vs. 1 year at $4.7M). Mrazek was also a lot worse and had a similar injury history.

Obviously the key is to find the right match, but I don't see why the expectation should be that it will cost significantly more to move a more valuable asset.

 

[Leaf Fans]

And you’re counting on a player filing for arbitration for this?

Are you confident Samsonov will file by Wednesday at 5pm? If not, kiss your window goodbye.

The team can choose to take him to arbitration on the 6th.

 

[RoadWarrior]

They can only buy him out if they have a player goes to arbitration.

Samsonov.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Moving Mrazek only cost them a drop from 25 to 38 in the draft, so the actual price to move him was nowhere close to a 1st, and he cost way more actual money ($8.6M vs. $6M) and a worse cap impact (2 years at $3.8M vs. 1 year at $4.7M). Mrazek was also a lot worse and had a similar injury history.

Obviously the key is to find the right match, but I don't see why the expectation should be that it will cost significantly more to move a more valuable asset.

For sure. Chicago paid a 2nd (38) and agreed to take Mrazek for the 1st (25).

 

[Michoulicious]

Buying him out, even with the 2 millions cap penalty in 2 years, is the best option.

You save real money doing so, and you save the current season.

Trading him and the 6 millions in real money he'll get this year will cost A LOT. No Arizona/Anaheim will do that, barring sending back salary elsewhere (ex: trading Gibson for Anaheim).

You'll cross the bridge when you get there next summer.

 

[HockeyVirus]

You would think fans would get tired of telling Leaf fans how doomed we are with the cap by now. We've been having this exact thread for literally almost a decade now. Since we drafted all the star players. And every time, they figure out a way to make it work without doing anything crippling.

Especially in this context where the easiest solution is a buyout why would the Leafs ever move any real assets beyond the fantasy of GM's wanting to bend over the Leafs? And let's be honest here, if the Leafs play Murray for a few games in pre-season does he even make the opening night roster without being on LTIR? He missed 80% of the season last year for the Leafs. There is a world they can do literally nothing and he injures himself and they are fine. Maybe there is appetite for a bottom feeder to take him on at the TDL for a 4th when most of the money is paid.

Either way, the Leafs have shown they are elite at managing the salary cap, and they know how to get out of this deal without much pain if required.

 

[Leaf Fans]

They can only buy him out if they have a player goes to arbitration.

Yes, as has been stated many time in this thread. Samsonov can choose arbitration on July 5th if he doesn't the team can elect to go to arbitration on thee person 6th. Or Samsonov can just accept his QO at 1.8M.

 

[Michoulicious]

You would think fans would get tired of telling Leaf fans how doomed we are with the cap by now. We've been having this exact thread for literally almost a decade now. Since we drafted all the star players. And every time, they figure out a way to make it work without doing anything crippling.

Especially in this context where the easiest solution is a buyout why would the Leafs ever move any real assets beyond the fantasy of GM's wanting to bend over the Leafs? And let's be honest here, if the Leafs play Murray for a few games in pre-season does he even make the opening night roster without being on LTIR? He missed 80% of the season last year for the Leafs. There is a world they can do literally nothing and he injures himself and they are fine. Maybe there is appetite for a bottom feeder to take him on at the TDL for a 4th when most of the money is paid.

Either way, the Leafs have shown they are elite at managing the salary cap, and they know how to get out of this deal without much pain if required.

I think the LTIR is pipe dream, he just turned 29. He won't want to retire and was healthy at the end of last season. People comparing him to 40y old Smith are out for lunch.

I also think the 2nd buyout window thing is the best option. Take the 2 millions L in 2024-2025, you'll figure things then.

 

[Budz]

I would flex MLSE dollars.

Robidas Island this year, with a handshake deal as a goalie scouting job that will pay him a couple of sheets/ year.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Moving Mrazek only cost them a drop from 25 to 38 in the draft, so the actual price to move him was nowhere close to a 1st, and he cost way more actual money ($8.6M vs. $6M) and a worse cap impact (2 years at $3.8M vs. 1 year at $4.7M). Mrazek was also a lot worse and had a similar injury history.

Obviously the key is to find the right match, but I don't see why the expectation should be that it will cost significantly more to move a more valuable asset.

First of all, the idea that Mrazek was a lot worse when his previous seasons were far better is an interesting hot take.

Second of all, you need to actually find a match, and I don't really see one. Mrazek may have had more salary owing, but his cap hit was less. Chicago was also desperate for 1sts and needed a veteran goalie around for a couple of seasons. That, plus his recent decent play with Carolina made sense for Chicago to take a gamble on him.

Murray hasn't been a good goalie since his Penguins days. He's also owed more money and has a higher salary up front. And how many teams have cap space, can spend 6 mil in one season for a backup goalie, would actually prefer him to UFAs like Stalock, Greiss, Halak? To say nothing of the goalies on the trade market.

It also depends on how long Toronto wants to look for a match? Because there's a good chance that finding a cheaper deal may take you to August/September.

Also, the counter argument to the Mrazek comparison is the Marleau trade and the last cap dump trade Treliving made in Calgary last offseason.

 

[Discoverer]

First of all, the idea that Mrazek was a lot worse when his previous seasons were far better is an interesting hot take.

Second of all, you need to actually find a match, and I don't really see one. Mrazek may have had more salary owing, but his cap hit was less. Chicago was also desperate for 1sts and needed a veteran goalie around for a couple of seasons. That, plus his recent decent play with Carolina made sense for Chicago to take a gamble on him.

Murray hasn't been a good goalie since his Penguins days. He's also owed more money and has a higher salary up front. And how many teams have cap space, can spend 6 mil in one season for a backup goalie, would actually prefer him to UFAs like Stalock, Greiss, Halak? To say nothing of the goalies on the trade market.

It also depends on how long Toronto wants to look for a match? Because there's a good chance that finding a cheaper deal may take you to August/September.

Also, the counter argument to the Mrazek comparison is the Marleau trade and the last cap dump trade Treliving made in Calgary last offseason.

I said Mrazek was a lot worse based on him coming off an .888 save percentage with the Leafs compared to Murray's .903 last year. Maybe "a lot" was an exaggeration, but I don't think it's far off. Mrazek had a really strong showing the previous year (.923 in just 12 games), but Murray was decent enough the year before, too (.906).

The Marleau trade is a good counter, for sure, but it was longer ago and I think it's hard to compare goalies and forwards.

The money is the real concern here, but again, Mrazek was a higher financial commitment even though it was spread out over two years. I don't think it's that hard to find a team with cap space who could use a veteran backup goalie.

 

[wankstifier]

I think the LTIR is pipe dream, he just turned 29. He won't want to retire and was healthy at the end of last season. People comparing him to 40y old Smith are out for lunch.

I also think the 2nd buyout window thing is the best option. Take the 2 millions L in 2024-2025, you'll figure things then.

Don’t think they can buy him out unless one of their RFAs goes to arbitration. Maybe they lowball Samsonov to force that process?

 

[HockeyVirus]

I think the LTIR is pipe dream, he just turned 29. He won't want to retire and was healthy at the end of last season. People comparing him to 40y old Smith are out for lunch.

I also think the 2nd buyout window thing is the best option. Take the 2 millions L in 2024-2025, you'll figure things then.

It's not a pipe dream because again, he played less than 30 games. He was unavailable for 50+ games. By the time he is healthy, someone else is hurt and then he comes back plays a game and is hurt again

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It's not a pipe dream because again, he played less than 30 games. He was unavailable for 50+ games. By the time he is healthy, someone else is hurt and then he comes back plays a game and is hurt again

The problem is that unless he hurt himself in the offseason (unlikely), he will be healthy to start the season. And the Leafs will be over the cap on day 1. I don't doubt that he may be on LTIR at some point this year. Just unliklely its in the offseason.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I said Mrazek was a lot worse based on him coming off an .888 save percentage with the Leafs compared to Murray's .903 last year. Maybe "a lot" was an exaggeration, but I don't think it's far off. Mrazek had a really strong showing the previous year (.923 in just 12 games), but Murray was decent enough the year before, too (.906).

The Marleau trade is a good counter, for sure, but it was longer ago and I think it's hard to compare goalies and forwards.

The money is the real concern here, but again, Mrazek was a higher financial commitment even though it was spread out over two years. I don't think it's that hard to find a team with cap space who could use a veteran backup goalie.

Now stretch that comparison back a couple more seasons.

Goalies tend to have less trade value than any other position, because outside of a few elite guys they are pretty interchangeable.

Taking into account filling out rosters, who are the teams that can afford to take on Murray without sending cap back? Anaheim, Chicago, Arizona, Seattle, Nashville and Montreal? Maybe Winnipeg if they trade Hellebuyck? And how many of those teams need a goalie or have the desire to spend 6 mil on one? It feels like Chicago is the only realistic choice, and why would they take Murray when they can get a veteran for less than half the price?

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Don’t think they can buy him out unless one of their RFAs goes to arbitration. Maybe they lowball Samsonov to force that process?

Yup either Samsonov or Toronto will start that process . Been touched on about a million times in this thread …

 

[Djp]

Caps going up by a lot.

Don’t count on it.

to many issues in the local TV/ media revenue with ballots snd others.

 

[wankstifier]

Yup either Samsonov or Toronto will start that process . Been touched on about a million times in this thread …

Sooo sorry!

But if he goes for ~$4MM, the Leafs will be over the cap by roughly the same amount. The buyout would solve nothing.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The problem is that unless he hurt himself in the offseason (unlikely), he will be healthy to start the season. And the Leafs will be over the cap on day 1. I don't doubt that he may be on LTIR at some point this year. Just unliklely its in the offseason.

That is why I said play him in pre-season lol. He might last a game or two.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

That is why I said play him in pre-season lol. He might last a game or two.

and what happens when he's healthy after preseason?