Value of: Getting Matt Murray out of Toronto

[Junohockeyfan]

Treliving is not doing his job very well if it costs us more than Dubas paid for him last year.

I think it will end up being Timmins and another decent prospect with the Leafs will get back a depth goalie and maybe some one-way contracts. Something like Murray + Timmins + Abruzzese/Steeves for Stauber + Hardman. If Murray stays healthy, he is a valuable asset that some team would certainly take a chance on at the TDL if he comes at 50%.

And given the way he has talked about the lack of picks, I certainly think he'd rather navigate a 2 million dollar cap penalty with Matthews and Nylander extensions than give up a 1st or even a 2nd. Buying out Murray is a lot more reasonable than it was for Treliving to buyout Monahan (since he'd have a 2.5 mill cap hit this year + 2 mill in the 2nd year).

Timmins has very little value. He's a 3rd pairing scrub that every team has.

the backended contract is killer on this one. If i am a team owner, i don't trade for Murray unless a 1st is coming with him. I am not shelling out 8M dollars for a 2nd.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Treliving won't bank on LTIR. Not after he was healthy enough to finish the season (in the playoffs). It would be a red flag to the league.

No one cares when unimportant teams do this stuff but everyone clutches pearls at the thought of Toronto shelving a guy who hurts himself getting out of bed

 

[Rec T]

Leafs front office: "Ok Matt, here's the deal. We haven't been able to trade you anywhere, so that's off the table. We can buy you out but that will handicap us slightly and more importantly for you, net you less money than running out your contract. Or...have you noticed just how badly your hips have been doing this off-season? Perhaps you tweaked something in the playoffs (or maybe it's your lower back, something that's hard to quantify by a doctor beyond your word that something is wrong). If you go on LTIR now/before the season, you'll get your full contract, help us out, and we'll do our best to make room for you once you 'get healthy ' in a few months...

Sound good?"

 

[Junohockeyfan]

No one cares when unimportant teams do this stuff but everyone clutches pearls at the thought of Toronto shelving a guy who hurts himself getting out of bed

Hyperbole. He was healthy to finish the season. Leafs are in cap hell. LTIR'ing a previously healthy player due to the team's cap crunch will raise alarm bells. This isn't an anti-Leafs bias. Its reality.

 

[McXLNC97]

Murray currently has a caphit of 4.68 in 2023.

If they buy him out. He has a hit of 0.68K in 2023 so 4M in relief but 2M cap hit in 2024 so a 2M penalty next year when the cap rises.

The question now becomes are they willing to get rid of a 1st rounder to save themselves from a 2M penalty next year the cap will go up by 5 so they will still see a 3M increase there.

Another thing to look at is Pierre Dorion was trying to move this contract all of last year so GMs are already on high alert especially since the injury and consistency concerns are even more baked in now and its less of a gamble that Murray is shit.

Just buy him out Toronto.... plz Sens need cap relief too.

I may be mistaken, but is the 2nd buyout window going to open up only if Samsonov goes to arbitration? Becomes kind of risky if that's the case and Samsonov get's like 5m/5m+ on a 1 year award.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I may be mistaken, but is the 2nd buyout window going to open up only if Samsonov goes to arbitration? Becomes kind of risky if that's the case and Samsonov get's like 5m/5m+ on a 1 year award.

Samsonov has to file and I think thats a pretty safe bet.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Geez, looking at the Leafs cap situation, its worse than i thought. They still need to sign Samsonov. What will that cost?

 

[Sun God Nika]

I mean you don't even have to go that far back to see what happened the last time the Leafs needed to be bailed out of a back contract when they were in a cap crunch....

View attachment 725732

That 1st rounder turned into Seth Jarvis

His last year on that contract was 4.25M in real dollars . 3M signing bonus 1.25M salary.

Toronto probably paid the signing bonus so essentially Carolina got a 1st rounder for buying out 1.25M in real dollars.

edit. Carolina paid the signing bonus. So they spent about 3.8M to buy a mid first rounder.

Geez, looking at the Leafs cap situation, its worse than i thought. They still need to sign Samsonov. What will that cost?

Ottawa signed Korpisalo @ 4m x 5.

Probably a little more than that.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

His last year on that contract was 4.25M in real dollars . 3M signing bonus 1.25M salary.

Toronto probably paid the signing bonus so essentially Carolina got a 1st rounder for buying out 1.25M in real dollars.


Ottawa signed Korpisalo @ 4m x 5.

Probably a little more than that.

There is no way Samsonov gets 4m. He's not a good goaltender.

 

[LOFIN]

Going to be interesting to see how Leafs manage this situation. Everyone knows they have to get rid of Murray, so other GMs should be asking for something pretty sweet to make it work.

 

[Golden_Jet]

No one cares when unimportant teams do this stuff but everyone clutches pearls at the thought of Toronto shelving a guy who hurts himself getting out of bed

The issue is, unless he hurts himself getting out of bed , he won’t be on LTIR, to start the season.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Even finding a taker for Murray with no cap going back is not enough for the Leafs. Presumably, Samsonov will cost ~4M to re-sign. They will still be at the cap limit.

I have a feeling Tre is looking to dump TJ Brodie as well.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Second buyout window only comes into play if Samsonov goes to arbitration, which could be the play.

Obviously.

 

[red devil]

No one cares when unimportant teams do this stuff but everyone clutches pearls at the thought of Toronto shelving a guy who hurts himself getting out of bed

When Montreal put Weber and Price on LTIR they had to send doctor reports on their injury. The NHL sent their own doctors to check on them to make sure their injuries were severe enough they couldn't play.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Can only buy out if the leafs are taking someone to arbitration. The other buyout window is now closed. As of now, the leafs have no one scheduled for arbitration.

The leafs have the ability to file as well as Samsonov . If either scenario happens a second buyout window opens up .

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

His last year on that contract was 4.25M in real dollars . 3M signing bonus 1.25M salary.

Toronto probably paid the signing bonus so essentially Carolina got a 1st rounder for buying out 1.25M in real dollars.

edit. Carolina paid the signing bonus. So they spent about 3.8M to buy a mid first rounder.


Ottawa signed Korpisalo @ 4m x 5.

Probably a little more than that.

Not necessarily. A 1 or 2 year deal would come in far less than that . That number is expected to be much closer to 3 than to 5 ..

 

[mouser]

It cost the Islanders a future 2nd rounder to get out of Bailey's deal and Murray makes about the same with the same term. That's probably going to be the cost to get out of his deal as well.

Bailey was making $3.5m ($2.33m after buyout).

Murray is making $6m.

 

[mouser]

What's Murray owed in real money if he were bought out by another team?

2.6M salary for 2 yrs?

Isles paid a future 2nd For 3.5M
So a 2nd + 3rd For 5.3M real dollars?
Or let's say Robertson + 2nd or Voit/Hirvonen + 3rd ?

Murray cannot be bought out by another team.

Toronto is the only team that can buy him out during the 2nd window.

 

[Michoulicious]

Murray cannot be bought out by another team.

Toronto is the only team that can buy him out during the 2nd window.

Exactly, we've been repeating it ad nauseam.

For a team to take Murray only for a pick (even a 1st), it will take an owner with deep pockets.

Maybe Anaheim if the go for the full tank and they get Gibson to waive his NMC and move him after. He would be a great tank commander there.

Even Marleau buyout by Carolina did not cost 6 millions in real money.

 

[mouser]

If they go through arbitration the Leafs can walk away from anything over 4 M. They can negotiate up to the say arbitration is heard, but if it goes through it will be a 1 or 2 year contract award.

Samsonov is only eligible for a 1 year arbitration award.

Walk away cutoff is $4.5m (should be $4,463,044 if they're being precise)

 

[Mr Positive]

More than a first because it is the full salary, and not 1 month worth. Plus Murray's deal was back loaded, so he gets 8 million and none of it was signing bonuses

Actual salary matters more than cap for a lot of these teams

Edit: and I know it's actually 6 million in cash because of retention

 

[bert]

I dont really see any scenario other than a buy out here.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

More than a first because it is the full salary, and not 1 month worth. Plus Murray's deal was back loaded, so he gets 8 million and none of it was signing bonuses

Actual salary matters more than cap for a lot of these teams

Edit: and I know it's actually 6 million in cash because of retention

More then a 1st lmao people getting silly now.

 

[Mr Positive]

More then a 1st lmao people getting silly now.

a late 1st is not worth 6 million in actual cash

 

[CupInSIX]

It's almost certain the Leafs are anticipating getting a 2nd buyout window and using that. My question is, how does that work? Do you get the arb hearing, then the buyout window, then you can negotiate a deal before a ruling?