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General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

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KINGS17 said:
No doubt Omicron is more contagious and cases are going to rise dramatically for a while. Then they will decline dramatically just as they have in countries several weeks ahead of the U.S. in dealing with Omicron.
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You continue to live in la-la land. Or South Africa.

Meanwhile, hospitalizations soar past the September Delta peak, and is rapidly approaching last January's all-time peak.

A record-high number of kids are getting hospitalized as overall Covid-19 hospitalizations soar past the Delta peak - CNN
 
Obviously, there was someone who didn't bother to watch this. Here's a hint, the biology and physiology of humans whether they be in America, or South Africa, is relatively the same.

 
I saw it. I knew Omicron was going to destroy Delta over a month ago. It's pretty obvious to anyone who is paying attention.

That fact doesn't matter. What does matter is that Omicron is running rampant and again, the sheer volume of infected people means that hospitalizations will soar and spike (a fact that you still haven't addressed). And death is a lagging indicator. We will see a large number of deaths, albeit at a lower rate. That's pretty clear to for anyone who is paying attention.
 
RonM11 said:
I saw it. I knew Omicron was going to destroy Delta over a month ago. It's pretty obvious to anyone who is paying attention.

That fact doesn't matter. What does matter is that Omicron is running rampant and again, the sheer volume of infected people means that hospitalizations will soar and spike (a fact that you still haven't addressed). And death is a lagging indicator. We will see a large number of deaths, albeit at a lower rate. That's pretty clear to for anyone who is paying attention.
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The death totals don’t bother any of these guys. As long as THEIR chances of death are low, they’re fine. Everyone else can piss off. Zero empathy from the liberty whiners.
 
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Maynard said:
The death totals don’t bother any of these guys. As long as THEIR chances of death are low, they’re fine. Everyone else can piss off. Zero empathy from the liberty whiners.
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Give us some data on omicron deaths, if you have it. I am willing to read it and be persuaded. The data we have thus far from countries further along in their experience with omicron suggest a decrease in the death rate, and the raw numbers from these countries indicate the same.

My chances of death are no less than any other human my age. That is why I chose to be fully vaccinated.

Omicron is here. It's going to run its course. On a larger scale, there isn't anything we are going to do to stop it. Individually, we can take extra precautions, and the most vulnerable should take extra precautions. Perhaps you would prefer the lockdowns taking place in Xian now, but an overwhelming majority of Americans don't agree. You can always lock yourself down though.

China’s Harshest Lockdown Yet Tests Its 'Zero-COVID' Playbook

The idea that people who post actual facts and data here don't have empathy is BS. It's just more jaded moral superiority coming from people like yourself.
 
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RonM11 said:
I saw it. I knew Omicron was going to destroy Delta over a month ago. It's pretty obvious to anyone who is paying attention.

That fact doesn't matter. What does matter is that Omicron is running rampant and again, the sheer volume of infected people means that hospitalizations will soar and spike (a fact that you still haven't addressed). And death is a lagging indicator. We will see a large number of deaths, albeit at a lower rate. That's pretty clear to for anyone who is paying attention.
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Omicron destroys Delta because previous Delta infections don't offer protection from omicron while a previous omicron infection protects from Delta.

Over 50% of hospitalizations with covid around the US hot spots are asymptomatic hospitalizations for something else based on a NY times article today. Hopefully, this continues.
 
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KINGS17 said:
Give us some data on omicron deaths, if you have it. I am willing to read it and be persuaded. The data we have thus far from countries further along in their experience with omicron suggest a decrease in the death rate, and the raw numbers from these countries indicate the same.

My chances of death are no less than any other human my age. That is why I chose to be fully vaccinated.

Omicron is here. It's going to run its course. On a larger scale, there isn't anything we are going to do to stop it. Individually, we can take extra precautions, and the most vulnerable should take extra precautions. Perhaps you would prefer the lockdowns taking place in Xian now, but an overwhelming majority of Americans don't agree. You can always lock yourself down though.

China’s Harshest Lockdown Yet Tests Its 'Zero-COVID' Playbook

The idea that people who post actual facts and data here don't have empathy is BS. It's just more jaded moral superiority coming from people like yourself.
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That's pretty rich. COVID-19 deaths lag hospitalizations by as much as five weeks. Yet when I told you let's revisit this in two months, you said you didn't have to.

Pretty convenient. I fully expect you to disappear at the end of February when stats for the United States for the past three months are revealed.
 
Even though it’s lagging, I don’t think deaths will be anywhere near what they were with delta. If you compare the two graphs delta was already starting to spike deaths when at similar case loads right now due to people waiting until they were sick as hell to get help.

As long as Omicron cases don’t spike 5x higher than what we experienced last winter, I don’t see the forecast for deaths rising all that much. We have a fairly big pool of vaccinated and a decent amount of boosted folks this time around that will keep that number way down.
 
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Fishhead said:
Even though it’s lagging, I don’t think deaths will be anywhere near what they were with delta. If you compare the two graphs delta was already starting to spike deaths when at similar case loads right now due to people waiting until they were sick as hell to get help.

As long as Omicron cases don’t spike 5x higher than what we experienced last winter, I don’t see the forecast for deaths rising all that much. We have a fairly big pool of vaccinated and a decent amount of boosted folks this time around that will keep that number way down.
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I mean, we're trying really hard to get there...
Screen Shot 2022-01-05 at 1.48.43 PM.png
 
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Fishhead said:
Even though it’s lagging, I don’t think deaths will be anywhere near what they were with delta. If you compare the two graphs delta was already starting to spike deaths when at similar case loads right now due to people waiting until they were sick as hell to get help.

As long as Omicron cases don’t spike 5x higher than what we experienced last winter, I don’t see the forecast for deaths rising all that much. We have a fairly big pool of vaccinated and a decent amount of boosted folks this time around that will keep that number way down.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC just revised it's death estimates over the next four weeks to 84,626 (the numbers are in the national forecast spreadsheet).

That's just four weeks of Omicron. By comparison, we suffered 95,013 deaths in January 2021 and 67,487 deaths in February 2021, so we are looking at comparable numbers for last winter.

As far as Delta is concerned, not even close. If you assume that Delta caused all deaths from September 1 through December 31 of last year, the total was 84,793. According to the CDC estimates, we are going to eclipse that 122-day total within the next 29 days alone.

That'e a whole lot of corpses, Fish.
 
This data is from South Africa.

South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Daily cases in South Africa peaked on Dec 12 at approximately 38,000 cases reported that day. Daily deaths peaked at 140 deaths on Jan 4. This is the omicron variant.

Back on July 3, 2021 daily cases in South Africa peaked at 26,645. Daily deaths peaked at 633 on July 13. This was the delta variant.

I think this supports @Fishhead position that omicron will not come close to approaching the deaths seen with delta and original COVID-19.

Additionally, from the peak number of cases on Dec 12 of 38,000, the number of cases on Jan 4, 2022 has dropped to approximately 8,000. That's a reduction of around 400%, and you can trust it, because I gave you the raw data.

It also appears daily cases in the U.S. have peaked. If we see the same type of case trend curve that was experienced in South Africa, the U.S. will begin to see a large drop in the number of cases by the end of next week.

I would not trust any estimates. They have been wildly over pessimistic since the start of the pandemic. Look at the daily numbers. The trend is your friend.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
 
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It's cool. I see you what you did there. You have a tendency to cherry pick whatever data points fit your narrative.

As a friend of mine often says, "shingles doesn't dare." Neither does Omicron, 17. Those numbers I gave you were not even the most pessimistic estimates. They were the midpoint in a frequency distribution (most likely outcome). That's not being "pessimistic." That's science.

The endpoints are 64,790 and 99,008, respectively. Check out that spreadsheet. You are into that.

Even if we go to the lowest endpoint number (not likely, given the statistical analysis), Omicron is going to kill more people in January and February (59 days) then Delta did in 122.
 
RonM11 said:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC just revised it's death estimates over the next four weeks to 84,626 (the numbers are in the national forecast spreadsheet).

That's just four weeks of Omicron. By comparison, we suffered 95,013 deaths in January 2021 and 67,487 deaths in February 2021, so we are looking at comparable numbers for last winter.

As far as Delta is concerned, not even close. If you assume that Delta caused all deaths from September 1 through December 31 of last year, the total was 84,793. According to the CDC estimates, we are going to eclipse that 122-day total within the next 29 days alone.

That'e a whole lot of corpses, Fish.
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That model makes a whole lot of assumptions and isn't very sound, to be honest. Look at the state forecasted California graphs and their mean/best fit. There are three outlier studies that deviate ridiculously far from the mean of other studies, pushing up their forecast. Their 95% CI spans death counts on 2/1 between about 550 and 2,000. That's so much deviation it's not even useful. The huge amount of potential error stems from the fact that there isn't near enough data present to create a viable model yet. They have to use assumptions from Delta and try to guess what is going to happen, but it's just not possible at this point. Their ensembles are the same that was used for their Delta forecasting due to this lack of data. What they are ending up with is prediction for a virus as infectious as Omicron with the mortality of Delta, and that's not what's going on right now.

Not to say that deaths couldn't reach those high levels, but it's the equivalent of picking a cup winner after 5 games.
 
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