General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[Lt Dan]

Omicron may be headed for a rapid drop in Britain, US | AP News

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

ICU is filling up. More than half full in two days which his right on time with about 7-10 days after infection.
Floor admissions are heavy. Our admissions are almost beyond Delta.

Staff is sick but we're working through it because we're forced to work if positive and/or mild symptoms. The prize is they give you all the COVID patients. If you're positive with Omicron and they have Delta.... I get it, the hospitals need staff. We didn't let people go d/t any mandates but should have before because now that's an issue on a floor. Staff is putting patients at risk. Nurses who got Alpha or Delta but decided not to get the vaccine are now getting sick again.

This was preventable. I would like to thank media outlets on the right who have done everything to cause chaos and question science and medicine and vaccines. Imagine playing with a 16-17 man roster where 1/3 of them are sick. That's what it feels like.

I read something last night on Twitter from another nurse which should make a meme.

She said, "Chase your horse paste with a shot of your own piss, as you sit there with a hard on from your viagra".

I'm not there but hey nurse humor. At least we can still laugh.

Rand Paul is an idiot. Can't believe he's pushing the theory to get Omicron and calls it natures vaccine. People are going to believe it.

And why do they promote doctors like Radiologists in the back who don't work bedside that get push their ideas to the forefront. No disrespect to those not at bedside, but a ton of them work from home and instead of putting on Infectious Disease Docs, or ICU docs, they promote theories from people not in the specialty.


Rand Paul Comes Out as Pro-Omicron
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has failed to follow the science for much of the pandemic, on Wednesday called Omicron, the Covid-19variant responsible for record-setting number of positive cases, “nature’s vaccine” during an interview with Fox & Friends.
“We’ve got 150 million people in our country that have already had this,” he said. “Now in the last couple of weeks, we’re adding millions of people every week who have already gotten this. And the one thing we know is if you get this mild variant, the Omicron, it’s actually going to protect you against the more serious variants.”
“This is basically nature’s vaccine that is running through the community,” he added, echoing comments made on the network last month by Dr. Nicole Saphier, a radiologist, who advocated for letting omicron “circulate.”

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In a sense he's not wrong, but I have to facepalm every time I see the "get covid to protect against covid" line of thinking, no matter how mild your case MAY be, it's always risky.

But beyond that as you point out it's completely ignorant of logistics and disrespectful to those who eventually have to care for the sick.

 

[KINGS17]

South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Africa Number of Cases (7-day moving average)

Nov 12, 2021: 284 cases

Dec 17, 2021: 23,437 cases (Peak)

Jan 11, 2022: 5,668 cases

 

[Fishhead]

In a sense he's not wrong, but I have to facepalm every time I see the "get covid to protect against covid" line of thinking, no matter how mild your case MAY be, it's always risky.

But beyond that as you point out it's completely ignorant of logistics and disrespectful to those who eventually have to care for the sick.

Also, we don't know for sure if it will protect against more serious variants. It does so against Delta, but there is no guarantee it will against future variants. Lots of wordplay to make it sound correct, based on a premise that is true now but could easily change in the future. He just has a cursory understanding of viruses and immunity, so he's not going to understand the intricacies.

Doesn't mean it couldn't work out well, however. If enough unvaxxed people got it mutation would slow as suitable hosts would drop, so like you said he's not completely wrong in a roundabout way.

 

[Lt Dan]

South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Africa Number of Cases (7-day moving average)

Nov 12, 2021: 284 cases

Dec 17, 2021: 23,437 cases (Peak)

Jan 11, 2022: 5,668 cases

So about 36 days to the peak....

It looks like is started around 12/16 in CA , so Jan 21ish this will hopefully peak if the trend continues

 

[KINGS17]

So about 36 days to the peak....

View attachment 497781
It looks like is started around 12/16 in CA , so Jan 21ish this will hopefully peak if the trend continues

I think it's possible.

 

[Fishhead]

So about 36 days to the peak....

View attachment 497781
It looks like is started around 12/16 in CA , so Jan 21ish this will hopefully peak if the trend continues

I think it might hit a bit sooner, we are a lot more population dense here. I wouldn't be surprised if we are right around the peak currently. It's difficult to get a read though because it's taking some places longer to get results back. I had a test Sunday and nothing yet, so those positive tests will be spread out over many days rather than just the most recent ones.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

I think it might hit a bit sooner, we are a lot more population dense here. I wouldn't be surprised if we are right around the peak currently. It's difficult to get a read though because it's taking some places longer to get results back. I had a test Sunday and nothing yet, so those positive tests will be spread out over many days rather than just the most recent ones.

I think it will depend where one lives. The summer had a decrease towards the end, but our ICU numbers were still high until October. Once they get intubated and go into ARDS, they are there for quite a long time while the virus runs its course and what organs are affected determine if they get renal failure, heart failure, fibrotic lungs (leading to a transplant if they qualify), or stroke. Some patients will be there for 30 to 45 days and the beds don't move until they get a trach. I think the peak will happen towards theend of January and in February we'll see the decline. But the ICUs will be full until end of February/March. You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave sort of a thing.
They should have put an asterisk on this saying that if you're vaccinated, it's milder than Delta but if you're not vaccinated, you are quite possibly screwed.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

In a sense he's not wrong, but I have to facepalm every time I see the "get covid to protect against covid" line of thinking, no matter how mild your case MAY be, it's always risky.

But beyond that as you point out it's completely ignorant of logistics and disrespectful to those who eventually have to care for the sick.

I just don't like that other people are at risk because they are going to get less than quality care.

 

[Lt Dan]

I am looking back at my daily reports, this might be our highest case count during this surge... (it looks like it is)
Hosp up again 1013---?1071
ICU up 10

 

[Lt Dan]

NOTE this is from 1/12/2021 LAST JANAURY

This was about the peak last winter for hospitalizations. I looked over most the surge (all in this thread) and we didn't come close case wise, but we are at about half of hospitalized patients in OC and ICU is a fraction.

ONCE AGAIN, THESE NUMBERS ARE FROM LAST YEAR

Hosp at a glance through this pandemic

 

[KINGS17]

NOTE this is from 1/12/2021 LAST JANAURY

This was about the peak last winter for hospitalizations. I looked over most the surge (all in this thread) and we didn't come close case wise, but we are at about half of hospitalized patients in OC and ICU is a fraction.

ONCE AGAIN, THESE NUMBERS ARE FROM LAST YEAR

Thanks for the comparative data.

 

[Lt Dan]

It looks like today is a case record (by alot)

 

[Lt Dan]

I'll post deaths, but they lag so much, it is really inaccurate data . The most recent date of death on here is 12/31

 

[Jason Squirties]

I read something last night on Twitter from another nurse which should make a meme.

She said, "Chase your horse paste with a shot of your own piss, as you sit there with a hard on from your viagra".

I'm not there but hey nurse humor. At least we can still laugh.

 

[RonM11]

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average) Jan 12, 2021: 3,545

Daily Deaths (7-day moving average) Jan 11, 2022: 1,674

Sheer numbers.

I never said it was going to be like last January. You are making a false comparison. We were just starting the distribution of vaccines a year ago. Of course the death counts were far worse a year ago.

What you should be comparing is the 7-day moving average from last week to this week, and so on. Daily deaths (1,715) are up 40% from a week ago; hospitalizations are at 151,261, up 26% from a week ago, and cases are up 34% at 747,267.

We should see the worst of this for the next couple of weeks and hopefully these numbers will have a sharp decline. Deaths are still on pace for as much as 84,000 for that four-week period; that's still an ugly number. Won't get close to last year, though.

 

[RonM11]

I think it will depend where one lives. The summer had a decrease towards the end, but our ICU numbers were still high until October. Once they get intubated and go into ARDS, they are there for quite a long time while the virus runs its course and what organs are affected determine if they get renal failure, heart failure, fibrotic lungs (leading to a transplant if they qualify), or stroke. Some patients will be there for 30 to 45 days and the beds don't move until they get a trach. I think the peak will happen towards theend of January and in February we'll see the decline. But the ICUs will be full until end of February/March. You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave sort of a thing.
They should have put an asterisk on this saying that if you're vaccinated, it's milder than Delta but if you're not vaccinated, you are quite possibly screwed.

I can say from personal experience that if you are not vaccinated, you are going to suffer a severe outcome. One of my colleagues died a couple of weeks ago and another is having a real tough time of it. Both were/are unvaccinated.

 

[RonM11]

I think it will depend where one lives. The summer had a decrease towards the end, but our ICU numbers were still high until October. Once they get intubated and go into ARDS, they are there for quite a long time while the virus runs its course and what organs are affected determine if they get renal failure, heart failure, fibrotic lungs (leading to a transplant if they qualify), or stroke. Some patients will be there for 30 to 45 days and the beds don't move until they get a trach. I think the peak will happen towards theend of January and in February we'll see the decline. But the ICUs will be full until end of February/March. You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave sort of a thing.
They should have put an asterisk on this saying that if you're vaccinated, it's milder than Delta but if you're not vaccinated, you are quite possibly screwed.

Papa, do you think Delta is going to survive Omicron? I've been under the assumption that Omicron would have destroyed Delta by now, as the variants have been tag-teaming for a while now...but now I hear that there is speculation that once Omicron burns through the population, we are still going to be seeing Delta cases, albeit at a much lower rate than the peak back in the fall.

Coronavirus will throw us for a loop for as long as it is wholly prevalent in our society.

 

[RonM11]

I think it might hit a bit sooner, we are a lot more population dense here. I wouldn't be surprised if we are right around the peak currently. It's difficult to get a read though because it's taking some places longer to get results back. I had a test Sunday and nothing yet, so those positive tests will be spread out over many days rather than just the most recent ones.

The problem is where you live...in Orange County we have been consistently below the curve nationwide going on two years now.

On the other hand, Los Angeles County is a shit-show. It's all about population density...the numbers in LA County have been astonishing but the decline will be just as precipitous...the decline in Orange County might take a bit longer.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Papa, do you think Delta is going to survive Omicron? I've been under the assumption that Omicron would have destroyed Delta by now, as the variants have been tag-teaming for a while now...but now I hear that there is speculation that once Omicron burns through the population, we are still going to be seeing Delta cases, albeit at a much lower rate than the peak back in the fall.

Coronavirus will throw us for a loop for as long as it is wholly prevalent in our society.

I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't survive Omicron but I'm reserving judgement on severity of Omicron for now. Viruses just crowd each other out and whoever is standing wins. It's entirely possible that Delta maybe around but I think the way Omicron evolves/is evolving it will drown out Delta eventually. The Omicron virus has a weakened interferon interaction with our body. Meaning, it doesn't shut off the immune system like Delta did so the body can recognize it and mount a counter attack plus it is more spreadable so it will likely infect someone first before Delta. The virus is evolving to survive by becoming more contagious and less severe like other viruses. The virus stays with those infected and can manifest later as something else by controlling the machinery of the body if it's unable to replicate. ie shingles later while initially chicken pox.

Corona Viruses by nature don't evolve that quickly or easily like a flu virus. This one is very stable and mutations are hard to come by but it has remarkably mutated with so many people on the planet so I'm surprised with what's come out. Delta was a shitty try on the virus so I think it's going another way now. Contrast that with flu virus, there are more than 270 strains if my memory serves me. So I'm optomistic but still want to see more data on severity. I appreciate the info from S. Africa but I want to see samples across the world, specifically the US because the way we live, eat, access to health care is different than areas like S. Africa. Plus a random study or two out of some countries (ahem, Israel), have proven to be not consistent in the US. But knowing how most viruses behave, I think it will follow in that pattern but I want a touch more data on US based severity. Longwinded but I wanted to be thorough.

There is a good podcast called This Week in Virology that's a good listen. You get epidemiologists plus virologists together. It's a nerd fest and informative, so I love it.

 

[RonM11]

I'll give it a listen. Thanks for the detail.

 

[Fishhead]

The problem is where you live...in Orange County we have been consistently below the curve nationwide going on two years now.

On the other hand, Los Angeles County is a shit-show. It's all about population density...the numbers in LA County have been astonishing but the decline will be just as precipitous...the decline in Orange County might take a bit longer.

Density definitely has an impact, but education level and affluence are far bigger factors.

It may not seem like it, but OC is far more population-dense than LA county, right behind San Francisco. Los Angeles County is a distant third. Since the beginning of the pandemic the lower educated and poorer areas have been hit harder, and it's still happening.

 

[RonM11]

In a sense he's not wrong, but I have to facepalm every time I see the "get covid to protect against covid" line of thinking, no matter how mild your case MAY be, it's always risky.

But beyond that as you point out it's completely ignorant of logistics and disrespectful to those who eventually have to care for the sick.

Not only that, but a lot of people will perish as a result, and a lot of people will end up with long COVID. It's absolutely the wrong message to be sending, and I find it curious that a radiologist and an opthamologist, both of whom are non-experts in virology and epidemiology, are trying to usurp the roles of such experts. That didn't work out so well when that clown Scott Atlas advocated for the same thing...also curious that he resigned just as the great death toll started last winter. Turns out that kind of advocate is unhealthy for the public at large.

 

[Maynard]

It is weird how the anti-mask, anti-vax, free-tards only think about mortality. None of the other damage being done is even considered.

Well ok, here are some death numbers:

There are 195 countries. In the past 7 days, only 11 of these countries had more than 1000 covid deaths.

In that same seven days, the US had over 12,000 covid deaths. 12,000 deaths in 7 days and people are still dumb enough to call this thing the “flu”. Just f***ing idiotic.

Over the past seven days, Americans account for 26.5% of all the covid deaths ON EARTH.

Faith over fear though right? Americans are so f***ing arrogant and stupid. We deserve this.