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General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

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LT Dan said:
I am still traveling, so no pics

4261 new cases
Hosp 1154---> 1232
Icu 171----> 207
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Pretty sure I got COVID. Started feeling Sunday nite, work sent me to COVID Clinic Monday at noon, for a test with 1 hr result time. Still haven’t gotten results…lololol.

Not sure what that means for case levels, just figured I’d throw it out there.
 
Katelyn Jetelina
Jan 18
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"Last week the World Health Organization reported more than 15 million cases of COVID19, which is so high that they had to change the y-axis scale of their epi curve. During the WHO press conference, one advisor said, “In 30 years working on infectious diseases we have not seen an epidemic curve like this before.”
While many countries are on their way up the curve, the Omicron leader—South Africa—continues to decline. Interestingly, South Africa is taking its time with the descent. While it took 3 weeks to peak, it’s been almost 5 weeks in the descent and hasn’t reached pre-Omicron levels yet. South African deaths are still increasing and are now 23% of that of the Delta wave. Not even their Omicron wave is over yet.
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There are a few countries in particular that I’m paying close attention to right now:
  • Netherlands: This was the first European country to return to a full lockdown with the arrival of Omicron. And it seems to be paying off: While their cases are increasing, their hospitalizations and ICU trends are exponentially decreasing. They have great vaccination coverage (71%), but it certainly isn’t high enough to drive this pattern alone. A few days ago they lifted the lockdown, so I will be closely watching their indicators.
  • Japan: Vaccine+ plan (80% fully vaccinated plus masks, contact tracing, communication, and quarantining) continues to work. Cases have begun to uptick, so it will be interesting to see if their model holds up with Omicron as it has throughout the pandemic.
  • Australia: They continue to be interesting to follow, as they’ve had tight lockdowns throughout the pandemic. While they have high vaccination coverage (78%), it’s not doing enough for Omicron. Australia has a ridiculous number of cases right now—almost double that of the United States—and severe disease indicators are trending upwards.
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But, no matter where Omicron goes, it’s clear that these severe cases are largely among the unvaccinated. For example, the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in the U.K. updated their analysis of COVID-19 patients in the ICU in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The figure below says a thousand words. (For those of you looking for absolute risks, go here. For example, the 5-year risk of ICU is less than 0.01% across all age groups now)".

Interesting to see the numbers quantified in multiple places and how long it takes for the decline to take place. You all can interpret the data as you wish, just thought I'd post out the info. Lots of interesting stuff in here. Driver continues to be the unvaccinated. I think when more people get vaxed, we'll get through this and this will be a thing of the past.
 
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2nd half of the newsletter: From Your Local Epidemiologist. Note the data in the links attached. For the people who like stats, this is a diamond mine of information to dissect.

Your Local (Infectious Disease) Epidemiologist

United States
"The United States is averaging a staggering 801,903 cases per day with a 98% increase in the past two weeks. Our cases have plateaued, which could be an indication of one of three things:
  1. We reached testing capacity. I would not be surprised if this happened, but I don’t think this is the case because test positivity rate (TPR) has also shown indications of peaking at 29%.
  2. Holiday effect: A weekend effect and, specifically, a holiday effect. We should know if this is the case pretty soon as data will be dumped later today; or,
  3. Peak: We truly peaked on a national level. This would be sooner than we expected (projections were estimating Feb 3), but obviously a welcome sign.
On a state-level, cases in many Northeast states, like New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland, have clearly peaked and started nosediving. We are not only seeing this in case and TPR patterns, but we’re seeing a similar pattern in wastewater. In Boston, viral loads in fecal samples continue to decline and have almost reached pre-Omicron levels. An extraordinary turnaround.
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(Financial Times)
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(Massachusetts Water Resources Authority)
States in the West are now growth leaders, with cases in Alaska (+610%), Texas (+428%), Utah (+414%), Oregon (+402%), and Montana (+394%) exponentially increasing in the past 2 weeks. While some of these cases are among the vaccinated, cases are still dominated by unvaccinated people. CDC hasn’t updated their website since November 20 (get it together, CDC!), but many jurisdictions regularly report cases by vaccination status. For example, below is the latest graph from the Oregon Health Authority. I don’t know if this differentiation could be partially driven by testing behaviors, like unvaccinated people being more likely to get a PCR test than vaccinated.
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(Oregon Health Authority)
Hospitalizations
On average, 155,943 people are hospitalized for/with COVID19 in the United States, which has increased 61% over the past 2 weeks. We have long passed last winter’s peak (and the previous record) by 20,000 hospitalizations and counting.
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In fact, 31 states are reporting hospitalization rates higher than previous winter. Washington, D.C. is just hammered with hospitalizations at 308% of last winter’s hospitalizations, equating to 128 per 100,000 residents being hospitalized for COVID19. This is followed by Delaware (70 per 100K), New Jersey (70 per 100,000), New York (68 per 100K), and Pennsylvania (63 per 100K). Thankfully, though, it looks like hospitalizations in these states are slowing down and will be on the descent soon.
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(NYT)
There are two states and 618 counties that require circuit breakers (i.e. short-term mitigation measures needed to preserve hospital functioning) at this point because their hospitals are at or above 100% capacity (assuming that the number of staffed beds has not increased in the past week). Medical military personnel have already been dispatched to a number of hospitals across the nation. Nebraska also joined a short list of states that have enacted its Crisis Standards of Care plan. But community-wide efforts to reduce spread desperately need to be taken, too. Fourteen additional states are at high risk of exceeding 100% hospital capacity in the next 1-10 days.
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And, just like other countries, vaccines continue to work. For example, the graphs of daily hospitalizations in New York State and Nebraska are worth a thousand words. Hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated aren’t even a blip on Oregon’s graph, too.
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(New York State)
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(Nebraska Medicine)
Deaths
And, finally, we are averaging a sobering 1,964 deaths per day in the United States. Yesterday we hit 850,000 deaths in the United States. For the record, this is one of the highest death rates per capita in the world. And the majority of the last 250,000 deaths were vaccine preventable. As Peter Hotez said, “Death by anti-science.” And a true national tragedy.
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Bottom line: The United States has reached (or is close to reaching) its case peak, which is a very welcome reprieve. But this only means we are halfway through the Omicron wave—there will be the same number of new infections on the way down as there were on the way up. Hospitalizations and deaths will follow. Nonetheless, vaccines continue to work really well. But it’s clear that a vaccine-only approach isn’t going to get the United States out of this pandemic".
Love, YLE
 
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KingLB said:
Pretty sure I got COVID. Started feeling Sunday nite, work sent me to COVID Clinic Monday at noon, for a test with 1 hr result time. Still haven’t gotten results…lololol.

Not sure what that means for case levels, just figured I’d throw it out there.
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Ugh. Hope you feel better soon. My wife and kids and I saw her mom on Sunday, mom tested positive on Tuesday, now we’re all holed up at home. Kids are acting fine but wife and I are feeling like shit. Wife and I are both boosted but our kids are both under 5 so nada. Guess we’ll see.
 
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Thanks for the data Papa.

I'm not sure how confident I am in some of those maps, though. The one shows California at capacity (we aren't) and OC at capacity (we are not). We still have about 20% capacity (inpatient) and 35% (ICU) here in OC. You can see statewide we aren't really close to capacity here: California COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Hospital Capacity: California COVID-19 Hospital Capacity | thecalifornian.com

Which data is correct is impossible to tell, but I lean towards believing we aren't close to capacity. The Kaiser facility I usually go to isn't in this dataset, but I chatted with a couple of testers while swabbing myself last week and they said they aren't anywhere near as full as they were last winter. It was actually pretty quiet. They did say that their testing was overloaded, though, so that was keeping them quite busy.

All in all some welcome news, but the per-capita deaths are ridiculous. It's completely embarrassing to see that when we have not only the most effective vaccines in the world but also an abundance of them. To me, it's madness not to protect yourself but I know many others don't feel that way.
 
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3,810 deaths reported today. Some of this is makeup reporting from the long weekend, but we had 2,228 deaths reported yesterday. That's over 6,000 in just two days. That's just plain insane. Not sure if it's because hospitals are reaching full capacity across the nation. It's too soon to tell. Omicron now accounts for 99.5% of all COVID-19 cases.
 
RonM11 said:
Expect more worrisome variants after Omicron, scientists warn
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This is verifiably true. It's also true that the more infective a virus is the lower the odds of a more virulent strain getting a foothold due to competition. The protection granted by Omicron and shots will be widespread, so the odds that a mutated strain shows up that can evade that protection and is both high in virulence and infectivity are very, very low. It's not zero, however, and if it does happen we are in very deep shit.
 
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I am vaccinated but got Omicron anyways like tons of other folks. I'm not anti-vaxx or whatever but doesn't this booster stuff seem ridiculous since it isn't designed for Omicron? My wife is a nurse and has to be boosted by February 1 or else she has to be tested routinely and some other annoyances. She just completed her 10th day from symptoms last Friday and really doesn't want to get boosted so soon after having the virus.

Again, not anti-vaxx but aren't they jumping the gun with this booster stuff? Boosted are still getting Omicron regardless and the booster is just the same thing we already took before that doesn't stop the dominant variant anyways AND we all just had COVID on top of it.
 
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BigKing said:
I am vaccinated but got Omicron anyways like tons of other folks. I'm not anti-vaxx or whatever but doesn't this booster stuff seem ridiculous since it isn't designed for Omicron? My wife is a nurse and has to be boosted by February 1 or else she has to be tested routinely and some other annoyances. She just completed her 10th day from symptoms last Friday and really doesn't want to get boosted so soon after having the virus.

Again, not anti-vaxx but aren't they jumping the gun with this booster stuff? Boosted are still getting Omicron regardless and the booster is just the same thing we already took before that doesn't stop the dominant variant anyways AND we all just had COVID on top of it.
Click to expand...

I think the CDC (and US government, generally) did a terrible job with messaging about the vaccines. The whole intent originally was for the vaccines to prevent severe illness and death. Then we got the pretty remarkable trials of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that seemed to not only prevent severe illness and death, but also stop the spread of the original form of the virus. The focus then shifted to the vaccines as a means to stop the spread and stop severe illness and death.

But now we’ve got this variant that seems to temper the ability of the vaccines to stop the spread as much as before. However, one thing that is clear is that the vaccines do still prevent severe death and illness, so they are doing still doing exactly what the original purpose was even a number of variants later. There is evidence that being boosted helps slow the spread still, even if not as much as before.

(I deleted the chart I had posted because it only covered up to the very possible beginning of omicron, so it’s not as useful, but I have seen posted evidence elsewhere.)

In short, getting boosted still is a net positive against omicron.
 
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Chazz Reinhold said:
I think the CDC (and US government, generally) did a terrible job with messaging about the vaccines. The whole intent originally was for the vaccines to prevent severe illness and death. Then we got the pretty remarkable trials of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that seemed to not only prevent severe illness and death, but also stop the spread of the original form of the virus. The focus then shifted to the vaccines as a means to stop the spread and stop severe illness and death.

But now we’ve got this variant that seems to temper the ability of the vaccines to stop the spread as much as before. However, one thing that is clear is that the vaccines do still prevent severe death and illness, so they are doing still doing exactly what the original purpose was even a number of variants later. There is evidence that being boosted helps slow the spread still, even if not as much as before.

(I deleted the chart I had posted because it only covered up to the very possible beginning of omicron, so it’s not as useful, but I have seen posted evidence elsewhere.)

In short, getting boosted still is a net positive against omicron.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I know that the point of the vaccine is more to lessen the severity of the illness. If you are a young (relatively) healthy person who already had two shots and got Omicron, why would you rush out to get a booster of the same stuff? It obviously does not stop the spread of the variant that is 99% of all cases and will most likely not stop the next variant.

Go get boosted was being pushed before Omicron came in and took a dump on the booster's ability to stop the spread. Having the first two shots supposedly still lessens the severity of the illness anyways.

I don't know. It is much easier to start thinking about the money behind all of this when the push is to get another shot of the same stuff that is designed for the original strain. I agree that the messaging is bad...this requirement for a N95 or KN95 is glossed over but it's like, you were cool with cloth masks until last week? Do you even know what you are doing?!?

There are those that push back for political reasons on vaccines and there are those that will take five boosters for political reasons if the government tells them to. For everyone that did their part and got the first two doses though, I think it is right to be skeptical about the need for the booster. I mean, we should always be skeptical of everything but it just seems much easier to be skeptical about this.

Getting vaccinated to begin with is important and I don't argue that; however, it just feels like the booster push is because the entire case for the vaccine starts to fall apart if it doesn't do a good job of slowing/stopping the spread. Again, that isn't the primary point of the vaccine but that is why most people would want to get it. Call me selfish if you want, but I went and did the two shots and I just had the virus: I am in no rush to get another shot of something that isn't even designed for what's going on right now. Will I never get another one? Not saying that but I'm pretty much not interested in what I consider an old-news vaccine at this point and I think it is ridiculous that my fully-vaccinated wife has to go get boosted 20 days after having the virus or else she has to jump through a bunch of hoops to go to work. It feels like there should be some sort of critical thinking going on but it's just "Trust us: it's good for you".
 
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Fishhead said:
Thanks for the data Papa.

I'm not sure how confident I am in some of those maps, though. The one shows California at capacity (we aren't) and OC at capacity (we are not). We still have about 20% capacity (inpatient) and 35% (ICU) here in OC. You can see statewide we aren't really close to capacity here: California COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Hospital Capacity: California COVID-19 Hospital Capacity | thecalifornian.com

Which data is correct is impossible to tell, but I lean towards believing we aren't close to capacity. The Kaiser facility I usually go to isn't in this dataset, but I chatted with a couple of testers while swabbing myself last week and they said they aren't anywhere near as full as they were last winter. It was actually pretty quiet. They did say that their testing was overloaded, though, so that was keeping them quite busy.

All in all some welcome news, but the per-capita deaths are ridiculous. It's completely embarrassing to see that when we have not only the most effective vaccines in the world but also an abundance of them. To me, it's madness not to protect yourself but I know many others don't feel that way.
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My buddies working here inland--as described a few pages ago--are having it worse than last year at this point and are on the verge of walking altogether because of it.

I have to imagine that when it hits an area it hits HARD

But it's really crazy to see areas taht are moving past it--with how quickly they've spiked, then how abruptly it's ended. Just hoping we're coming down this week at this point.
 
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BigKing said:
I am vaccinated but got Omicron anyways like tons of other folks. I'm not anti-vaxx or whatever but doesn't this booster stuff seem ridiculous since it isn't designed for Omicron? My wife is a nurse and has to be boosted by February 1 or else she has to be tested routinely and some other annoyances. She just completed her 10th day from symptoms last Friday and really doesn't want to get boosted so soon after having the virus.

Again, not anti-vaxx but aren't they jumping the gun with this booster stuff? Boosted are still getting Omicron regardless and the booster is just the same thing we already took before that doesn't stop the dominant variant anyways AND we all just had COVID on top of it.
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I think having the booster will be critical if there is a new variant that is virulent, but as @Fishhead points out that is highly unlikely. Also, the vaccine would have to be effective against the new variant.

I understand the vaccine doesn't protect people from contracting Omicron, but it may be effective for people with health concerns is preventing Omicron from becoming a serious health concern.

Can't blame your wife for not wanting to get the booster so soon after contracting Omicron. Not enough is known about that situation to make me comfortable.
 
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BigKing said:
Thanks. I know that the point of the vaccine is more to lessen the severity of the illness. If you are a young (relatively) healthy person who already had two shots and got Omicron, why would you rush out to get a booster of the same stuff? It obviously does not stop the spread of the variant that is 99% of all cases and will most likely not stop the next variant.

Go get boosted was being pushed before Omicron came in and took a dump on the booster's ability to stop the spread. Having the first two shots supposedly still lessens the severity of the illness anyways.

I don't know. It is much easier to start thinking about the money behind all of this when the push is to get another shot of the same stuff that is designed for the original strain. I agree that the messaging is bad...this requirement for a N95 or KN95 is glossed over but it's like, you were cool with cloth masks until last week? Do you even know what you are doing?!?

There are those that push back for political reasons on vaccines and there are those that will take five boosters for political reasons if the government tells them to. For everyone that did their part and got the first two doses though, I think it is right to be skeptical about the need for the booster. I mean, we should always be skeptical of everything but it just seems much easier to be skeptical about this.

Getting vaccinated to begin with is important and I don't argue that; however, it just feels like the booster push is because the entire case for the vaccine starts to fall apart if it doesn't do a good job of slowing/stopping the spread. Again, that isn't the primary point of the vaccine but that is why most people would want to get it. Call me selfish if you want, but I went and did the two shots and I just had the virus: I am in no rush to get another shot of something that isn't even designed for what's going on right now. Will I never get another one? Not saying that but I'm pretty much not interested in what I consider an old-news vaccine at this point and I think it is ridiculous that my fully-vaccinated wife has to go get boosted 20 days after having the virus or else she has to jump through a bunch of hoops to go to work. It feels like there should be some sort of critical thinking going on but it's just "Trust us: it's good for you".
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I think you bring up very valid points.

Bottom line, doing your own homework, thinking for yourself, and applying logic to your specific circumstances is always a good idea.
 
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BigKing said:
I am vaccinated but got Omicron anyways like tons of other folks. I'm not anti-vaxx or whatever but doesn't this booster stuff seem ridiculous since it isn't designed for Omicron? My wife is a nurse and has to be boosted by February 1 or else she has to be tested routinely and some other annoyances. She just completed her 10th day from symptoms last Friday and really doesn't want to get boosted so soon after having the virus.

Again, not anti-vaxx but aren't they jumping the gun with this booster stuff? Boosted are still getting Omicron regardless and the booster is just the same thing we already took before that doesn't stop the dominant variant anyways AND we all just had COVID on top of it.
Click to expand...

I could be wrong, but I've read its not advisable to get the shot or booster until 90 days after a negative test.
 
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