Proposal: Gardiner + Marner for Faulk

[Halla]

This thread is a classic example of a fan base overrating a prospect. People call him the next Patrick Kane. It's ridiculous, not to mention unfair to the kid. The odds that Marner will match a Calder, Hart, art Ross, and conn-smythe winner, a future hall of famer who will probably go down as the best American player of all time, are slim to none.

Marner will probably be a good player, maybe even a very good player. But he's not valued as the next Patty Kane by anyone other than Leafs fans. It's pie-in-the-sky. Bottom line, you jump at the chance to trade a good (but unproven) winger prospect for a #1D on a great contract. End of story.

but its not just for a prospect, its also our 2nd best dman.

chicago built their team by trading their high picks like toews and kane right? errr no.

we happily keep matthews,marner,nylander. time to do it right. end of story

 

[Halla]

absolutely terrible for Carolina

Gardiner is nowhere near a #2 dman, he plays extremely easy minutes.

and his advanced stats are up there with doughty, ekman larsson etc.
"easy minutes" lol. He regularly plays against the other teams 2nd lines, sometimes vs the top line. maybe watch a game next year?

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

absolutely terrible for Carolina

Gardiner is nowhere near a #2 dman, he plays extremely easy minutes.

Nice try. Not a chance.

 

[Seras]

Not moving Marner

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

This thread is a classic example of a fan base overrating a prospect. People call him the next Patrick Kane. It's ridiculous, not to mention unfair to the kid. The odds that Marner will match a Calder, Hart, art Ross, and conn-smythe winner, a future hall of famer who will probably go down as the best American player of all time, are slim to none.

Marner will probably be a good player, maybe even a very good player. But he's not valued as the next Patty Kane by anyone other than Leafs fans. It's pie-in-the-sky. Bottom line, you jump at the chance to trade a good (but unproven) winger prospect for a #1D on a great contract. End of story.

You know I bet the same was said of Kane when he was just breaking in.
I bet that there were also some people saying he was going to reach his potential as a player (but not as a human being) and they were probably told to "pump the brakes" but they were right.
That's the thing about potential, you need to wait and see.
Leafs fans will happily hold on to Marner and see what we have for the next few years.
Faith was put into Hunter's drafting prowess, now let's give them a chance to reap the rewards.

 

[GoldiFox]

Pretty sure when people say patty kane they mean size wise and game wise, even though marner is a far and away a better all round player kane offense will always be a tier or two ahead.

"Marner is far and away a better all around player"... Than Patrick Kane?

This is your response to the guy saying Toronto fans need to stop overrating their prospects. The lolz in this thread are infinite.

 

[ijuka]

Pretty sure when people say patty kane they mean size wise and game wise, even though marner is a far and away a better all round player kane offense will always be a tier or two ahead.

You are calling a prospect who couldn't make NHL last camp and is doubtful to make it this year "a far and away better all round player" than Patrick Kane - the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay and Hart winner?

"all around player" when talking about scoring wingers is becoming the next buzz word that doesn't mean anything. You could argue that Valtteri Filppula is a better "all around player" than Patrick Kane but no one who's remotely sane would think for a nanosecond before picking Kane.

 

[Hally BlackWood]

neither team does this. Toronto is in rebuilding stage and they can't be trading awaing multiple assests for one. They are too far away from a complete team to be making moves like this.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

and his advanced stats are up there with doughty, ekman larsson etc.
"easy minutes" lol. He regularly plays against the other teams 2nd lines, sometimes vs the top line. maybe watch a game next year?

comparing gardiner to these two in ANY WAY is a mistake. I dont care what their advanced stats say, there is a massive MASSIVE gap between these players. Can you see why advanced stats are misleading?

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

as for OP Carolina thinks about it, but declines fairly quickly.

Faulk is a stud. he will top out as a top 10 dman in the show. no doubt in my mind.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

"Marner is far and away a better all around player"... Than Patrick Kane?

This is your response to the guy saying Toronto fans need to stop overrating their prospects. The lolz in this thread are infinite.

You are calling a prospect who couldn't make NHL last camp and is doubtful to make it this year "a far and away better all round player" than Patrick Kane - the Art Ross, Ted Lindsay and Hart winner?

"all around player" when talking about scoring wingers is becoming the next buzz word that doesn't mean anything. You could argue that Valtteri Filppula is a better "all around player" than Patrick Kane but no one who's remotely sane would think for a nanosecond before picking Kane.

Projects to be geez. Marner's game in all 3 zones will be far superior. He will never be a better player but a more complete player.

 

[Rebels57]

and his advanced stats are up there with doughty, ekman larsson etc.
"easy minutes" lol. He regularly plays against the other teams 2nd lines, sometimes vs the top line. maybe watch a game next year?

I dont give a **** what the advanced stats say. Gardiner isnt on the same planet as Doughty or OEL.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

Projects to be geez. Marner's game in all 3 zones will be far superior. He will never be a better player but a more complete player.

if marner's game is better than kanes in the offensive zone, i will eat patrick kanes game used jock strap.

 

[Pip]

Can you seriously say that if faulk walks onto another NHL team, that he supplants ANY of the following guys??

Suter, Pietrangelo, Letang, Doughty, Karlsson, Hedman, Keith,Burns, Josi, Subban,OEL,Byufglien, Shattenkirk, Carlson...



Or has more than equal upside than,
Ekblad, Lindholm, Gostisbehere, Rielly, Vatanen, Ristolainen

lmao it's like you have literally no idea who Faulk is.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

if marner's game is better than kanes in the offensive zone, i will eat patrick kanes game used jock strap.

lol meant 2 zones my bad, kind of contradictory to say kanes offense is a a league above marners and then say marner will be a better 3 zone player, so 2 zones. kane will still be better as a whole no doubt, just marner plays a complete game.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

lol meant 2 zones my bad, kind of contradictory to say kanes offense is a a league above marners and then say marner will be a better 3 zone player, so 2 zones. kane will still be better as a whole no doubt, just marner plays a complete game.

yeah that makes more sense, but you are downplaying kanes ability in the neutral zone huge (defensive zone too but i'll leave that alone). kane doesn't just cross into the offensive zone and suddenly become more awesome. imo kane is one of the most dynamic neutral zone players and that is where he generates a lot of good opportunities whether with his hands, speed, or just his ability to find space.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

comparing gardiner to these two in ANY WAY is a mistake. I dont care what their advanced stats say, there is a massive MASSIVE gap between these players. Can you see why advanced stats are misleading?

They aren't misleading. Literally everything in life is misleading/bad if not used properly (It was used incorrectly in the post you were referring to).

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Toronto stays away from this. Faulk's good but I'd much rather keep the duo of Gardiner + Marner. I don't think Faulk is/will become the elite #1D we want. I'd much rather target someone else or stay patient.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

yeah that makes more sense, but you are downplaying kanes ability in the neutral zone huge (defensive zone too but i'll leave that alone). kane doesn't just cross into the offensive zone and suddenly become more awesome. imo kane is one of the most dynamic neutral zone players and that is where he generates a lot of good opportunities whether with his hands, speed, or just his ability to find space.

Fair enough, my point was just marner is a well rounded player/prospect, one can only type so much on there phone lol.

 

[Finnflash]

The last thing the leafs should do is trade away thier prospects to "become better quicker".

 

[major major]

The last thing the leafs should do is trade away thier prospects to "become better quicker".

It's not about quicker. The idea is for them just to be better. And Faulk is 24 so it's not like they're destroying their future.

Why will it make them better?

1) If Morgan Rielly is your second best d-man, you might win a cup. If he's your first best d-man, fat chance.

2) Unlike on random online proposals, GM's don't get offered top tier D-men in reasonable trades more than once every 5 or 10 years. "Waiting to see what you have in Marner" is not so smart in this respect.

3) If Marner is the point-per-game player Leafs fans evidently think he will be, his value might be comparable to Faulk's. Before then, it's not close. I'd guess half the value.

 

[OCPenguin]

A rebuilding team isn't going to trade away its bluechip prospects.

It defeats the entire purpose of the rebuild.

Yes, because all those bluechip prospects are going to turn out like studs. Marner could stink for all you know. Faulk is by far the best player in that deal. I wouldn't do that if I was Carolina.

 

[Finnflash]

It's not about quicker. The idea is for them just to be better. And Faulk is 24 so it's not like they're destroying their future.

Why will it make them better?

1) If Morgan Rielly is your second best d-man, you might win a cup. If he's your first best d-man, fat chance.

2) Unlike on random online proposals, GM's don't get offered top tier D-men in reasonable trades more than once every 5 or 10 years. "Waiting to see what you have in Marner" is not so smart in this respect.

3) If Marner is the point-per-game player Leafs fans evidently think he will be, his value might be comparable to Faulk's. Before then, it's not close. I'd guess half the value.

Good points. I guess to be clear Toronto has an awesome prospect pool. The only thing I see going bad for them is if the fan base wants more quicker which will lead them to the last 20 years repeating itself

 

[TT1]

and his advanced stats are up there with doughty, ekman larsson etc.
"easy minutes" lol. He regularly plays against the other teams 2nd lines, sometimes vs the top line. maybe watch a game next year?

here you go, actual data (as opposed to blind T.O fanboyism based on HERO charts)

hes massively sheltered behind Hunwick and Rielly (even tho Hunwick was terrible vs the competition he faced)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2014-2015:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2013-2014:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2012-2013:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2011-2012:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

There you go!

_______

compared to Faulk last season:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

hes playing elite competition and hes outperforming them with Hainsey (taking sub 50% ozone starts)

_______

in regards to the bolded, you just showed that you dont know anything about advanced stats.. (except looking at pretty HERO charts!)

Hedman's advanced stats last season: (played the toughest competition among TB dmen and he crushed his opposition)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Doughty's advanced stats last season: (played the toughest competition among L.A dmen and did VERY well against them)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

OEL's advanced stats last season: (played 2nd toughest competition among Arizona's dmen, basically still top pairing competition.. but unlike Murphy he absolutely crushed his opposition)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

So no, his advanced stats are NOWHERE NEAR OEL, Doughty, OEL because he plays extremely soft minutes.. cus you know the competition that NHL player's face is extremely important, right?
Playing vs Crosby isnt the same thing as vs playing 3rd/4th liners.

So yea, brutal proposal for Carolina.

 

[oilerbear]

Justin Faulk



Jake Gardiner

Mitch Marner

Leafs get a top pairing defender who can run the powerplay and pair with Rielly at even strength

Hurricanes get a #2 defender with huge upside plus a Top 5 prospect league wide that projects as an elite scorer.

Thoughts?

Of the top 300 Even goal scorers Dmen score 6% of the 3242 goals.
They do not drive even goal production.
teams are 3.6 times less likely to score goal with a Dman driving top 300 offensive play.

Of the 150 top PPG scorers 8% ar Dmen.
they do not drive PP goal scoring.

But the 4 best PPG scoring D would be considered Average.
OEL; Weber; Faulk; Burns.

So Faulk cheats at even for below average Offence production.
yet is bottom 10 At defending the HSCA were 75% of goals come from.

Forwards need to score .31 EVGF/60 more than every D pairs EVGA to have a chance at a Playoff Wild card position.

Take The best HSCA/ EVGA D man in the game the last 2 years.
Adam larsson
1.58 EVGA/60 - 297 forwards can generate 1.98 EVGF/60 to outscore his defence.
A line of King - Mclemett - Dorsett can out score that. A line of #9-10 Fwds.

Now take one of the worst HSCA D in the game.
Faulk:
#214 EVGA D 2.82 EVGA/60
forwards need to score 3.13 EVGF/60 to have chance at a WC spot.
10 forwards can do that: 10 of 420 (top 14 on each team)
Plat; Kucherov; Mcdavid; Johnson; Toffoli; Benn; Sequin; Craig Smith; Tarasenko; Nash
Faulk kills a teams playoff chances.

he is like Barrie; Gio; D. Hamilton; Nurse; M. Rielly abandoning there defence of net. to seek inefficient offensive production.
they are playoff killers.


TT1:
facing 1st Comp and playing big minutes to justify a players complete and utter awful level of play is a team and Gm's playoff suicide.

10 mins of awful or 25 minutes of awful against 1st or 4th comp is still an awful Dman.

Any person that thinks
- Dmen that gets 6% of the top 300 players Even goals drives offence.
or
Dmen that get 8 % of top 150 Players PP goals drive PP offence
are foolish beyond belief.