Proposal: Gardiner + Marner for Faulk

[MacerV]

STOP!!!!!!!!!! Leaf fans please stop drastically overrating Gardiner. He's not a #2 in any way of measuring it. He's not even a bonafide top-4 by any stretch. He's a -38 over the past two seasons while posting well below average possession stats on the worst team in the league. He isn't facing top competition, one of the lowest QoC on Toronto. He has an even worse corsi per quality ratio. He only earned the 4th most time on ice on a team that is screaming for help on the blueline. He would easily be a bottom pairing guy on a lot of teams in this league. Are these not blatantly obvious indications?

Gardiner has fooled so many leaf fans over the years with his skating and sometimes flashy plays. He has equally many inexplicable turnovers. Leaf fans have always been going on and on about Gardiner's "upside" including this post. He is 26 years old now, how much "HUGE" upside does he have left? If he ever becomes more than a 4/5 I'll be legitimately shocked. His hockey IQ will limit him forever especially at the defense position.

So I guess Gardiner is better than Faulk, you know Faulk being at -41 over the past two season.

 

[glucker]

People seem to be massively underrating Marner here.

He's one of the best prospects in the world, putting up insane numbers in Junior, even in his draft year, so no talk of him just ripping it up because he's older.

His draft year numbers are right up there with McDavid's, he plays all heart, and has a strong two-way game.

Literally the only question with him is his size... And we've seen that for players of his skill level, the new NHL is pretty forgiving on that front.

There's no way any team should consider trading a player like Marner for a decent top pairing guy.

Gardiner doesn't even need to be included for this to be an easy no from the Leafs.

This isn't a slight to Faulk either, it's just you don't trade a guy with Marner's potential unless you're getting a steal... Which would essentially be someone who's already where you think Marner might become.

 

[Apollo Leaf]

#1D (signed long term to a good contract) for a 2nd pairing soft D and a smallish mystery box.

Canes laugh at the deal.

Neutral fan here

So when does he not become smallish... when he grows a grand total of 1 inch to be 6'0? As for filling out, that comes with time. And of course he is a mystery box. Every prospect is.

As a Leafs fan, I hate this deal. Nothing against Faulk but the value just isn't there.

 

[JT Kreider]

People seem to be massively underrating Marner here.

He's one of the best prospects in the world, putting up insane numbers in Junior, even in his draft year, so no talk of him just ripping it up because he's older.

His draft year numbers are right up there with McDavid's, he plays all heart, and has a strong two-way game.

Literally the only question with him is his size... And we've seen that for players of his skill level, the new NHL is pretty forgiving on that front.

There's no way any team should consider trading a player like Marner for a decent top pairing guy.

Gardiner doesn't even need to be included for this to be an easy no from the Leafs.

This isn't a slight to Faulk either, it's just you don't trade a guy with Marner's potential unless you're getting a steal... Which would essentially be someone who's already where you think Marner might become.

No matter how good a prospect, they don't return a 24 year old #1 RHD on a very good contract.

Nobody is underrating Marner, we're just pointing out the reality of the situation.

Oilers fans got the same response in their RNH for Faulk threads.

Potential is the only thing that is being overrated. As per the usual on this website.

As a neutral fan, Faulk isn't just a decent top-pairing guy and would be a steal for the Leafs. He'd automatically become your most valuable asset outside of Matthews.

Players with Marner's potential are found in the draft every season.

Top pairing RHD is the universally most needed position in all of hockey.

 

[hawksrule]

People seem to be massively underrating Marner here.

He's one of the best prospects in the world, putting up insane numbers in Junior, even in his draft year, so no talk of him just ripping it up because he's older.

His draft year numbers are right up there with McDavid's, he plays all heart, and has a strong two-way game.

Literally the only question with him is his size... And we've seen that for players of his skill level, the new NHL is pretty forgiving on that front.

There's no way any team should consider trading a player like Marner for a decent top pairing guy.

Gardiner doesn't even need to be included for this to be an easy no from the Leafs.

This isn't a slight to Faulk either, it's just you don't trade a guy with Marner's potential unless you're getting a steal... Which would essentially be someone who's already where you think Marner might become.

What's his potential? And what's the likelihood of him reaching that potential, in your opinion?

 

[RodTheBawd]

But to get Faulk the Leafs need to add something very juicy to Gardiner. Think JVR+Gardiner type deal but I know Leafs fans wouldn't be too happy about that.

Umm... Canes fans wouldn't be too happy about that.

 

[JT Kreider]

Hopefully the Hurricanes name Faulk their captain ASAP and we can put these stupid threads to bed.

Faulk is not being traded. He's the player Carolina is building their entire team around.

To me Faulk is just a few spots below OEL in the rankings (and only because of the injury) and when OEL was being discussed the return was Matthews. (On this board. Not in reality. Because whatever is said on this site has no baring on reality.)

 

[glucker]

No matter how good a prospect, they don't return a 24 year old #1 RHD on a very good contract.

Nobody is underrating Marner, we're just pointing out the reality of the situation.

Oilers fans got the same response in their RNH for Faulk threads.

Potential is the only thing that is being overrated. As per the usual on this website.

As a neutral fan, Faulk isn't just a decent top-pairing guy and would be a steal for the Leafs. He'd automatically become your most valuable asset outside of Matthews.

Players with Marner's potential are found in the draft every season.

Top pairing RHD is the universally most needed position in all of hockey.

Players with Marner's potential are found in most drafts, sure, but usually only with the first pick or two. Leafs got very lucky picking high in a draft that featured McDavid and Eichel.

If Faulk would be the second most valuable piece on the Leafs, it'd only be because the Leafs traded away a guy that would otherwise be ahead of him in Marner.

What's his potential? And what's the likelihood of him reaching that potential, in your opinion?

multiple > ppg seasons, while being responsible defensively.


And I think he's got a pretty good shot of reaching it, too, because unlike a guy like Gardiner he's got the smarts to match his skill and drive.

I'm not bashing Faulk here, but the Leafs, if they plan on winning anything, need skill all positions. Creating a hole to fill another doesn't fix anything.

Part of this too is that I don't think the Leafs are getting out of the basement this year, and will have a good shot at one of the top defenders in the draft. Leafs would have a better team with Faulk than with Marner for the next 2 seasons, in all likelihood... But they're not a win-now team. So IMO, trading Marner for Faulk hurts the Leafs long-term twofold:
1) they trade away a better piece in Marner
2) they hamper their draft position, without improving enough to make the playoffs

 

[Skobel24]

Justin Faulk



Jake Gardiner

Mitch Marner

Leafs get a top pairing defender who can run the powerplay and pair with Rielly at even strength

Hurricanes get a #2 defender with huge upside plus a Top 5 prospect league wide that projects as an elite scorer.

Thoughts?

Gardiner is not a #2 dman. He's a #3/4.

 

[Penske]

I don't think the Hurricanes would even need Gardiner (even though he is a good player). If Faulk was being traded it'd be for a young proven very good 1st liner. They wouldn't take the risk for Marner when they don't need too.

 

[hawksrule]

multiple > ppg seasons, while being responsible defensively.

So you're assuming there's a very good chance he's in the top 5 in the league in scoring for multiple seasons. It could happen, I suppose, but thinking it's very likely and expecting a return based on that pie-in-the-sky assumption is the crux of the disconnect here.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

So you're assuming there's a very good chance he's in the top 5 in the league in scoring for multiple seasons. It could happen, I suppose, but thinking it's very likely and expecting a return based on that pie-in-the-sky assumption is the crux of the disconnect here.

Most of the threads involving Marner are created by another fan base wanting a chance at his potential.
The same reason that the Leafs fans are saying no.
Everyone should move on because the
Leafs want to see what they have with Marner.

 

[LeafFever]

Toronto takes this and runs out. "Start tne car, Start the car!"

Uh no the Leafs would not.

 

[Paul4587]

Uh no the Leafs would not.

They absolutely would. A 26 year old number three defenseman and a top forward prospect (yes he has high upside but the likelihood of him becoming Patrick Kane is almost 0, it's far more likely he ends up as a decent first or even second liner which is what you would want out of a top 5 pick) for a 24 year old right handed number one defenseman who they have under contract at a very reasonable rate.

It's a no brainer.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

here you go, actual data (as opposed to blind T.O fanboyism based on HERO charts)

hes massively sheltered behind Hunwick and Rielly (even tho Hunwick was terrible vs the competition he faced)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2014-2015:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2013-2014:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2012-2013:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

same thing in 2011-2012:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

There you go!

_______

compared to Faulk last season:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

hes playing elite competition and hes outperforming them with Hainsey (taking sub 50% ozone starts)

_______

in regards to the bolded, you just showed that you dont know anything about advanced stats.. (except looking at pretty HERO charts!)

Hedman's advanced stats last season: (played the toughest competition among TB dmen and he crushed his opposition)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Doughty's advanced stats last season: (played the toughest competition among L.A dmen and did VERY well against them)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

OEL's advanced stats last season: (played 2nd toughest competition among Arizona's dmen, basically still top pairing competition.. but unlike Murphy he absolutely crushed his opposition)

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

So no, his advanced stats are NOWHERE NEAR OEL, Doughty, OEL because he plays extremely soft minutes.. cus you know the competition that NHL player's face is extremely important, right?
Playing vs Crosby isnt the same thing as vs playing 3rd/4th liners.

So yea, brutal proposal for Carolina.

why hasn't anyone who said Gardiner is good check out his advanced stats replied to this?

 

[Hunter368]

why hasn't anyone who said Gardiner is good check out his advanced stats replied to this?

B/c he's just an average 2nd pairing D on a bad team.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

why hasn't anyone who said Gardiner is good check out his advanced stats replied to this?

Because you have to be a special kind of stupid to think you can play 20 minutes a game against "mostly 3rd and 4th liners". There's no arguing with people who genuinely believe this. Unless you're facing deliberately unreasonable opposition like Larsson or Reilly were last season, QoC is largely irrelevant for general use top-4 D. The math supports that QoT >>> zone starts > QoC in terms of impact on a players stats.

 

[JT Kreider]

On the Hurricanes, Gardiner would be their #5 defenseman.

Hanifin, Faulk, Pesce and Slavin ahead of him. With Bean and Fleury in the pipeline projected to be better than Gardiner if we're talking about potential being the be all end all of trade values.

 

[TT1]

Because you have to be a special kind of stupid to think you can play 20 minutes a game against "mostly 3rd and 4th liners". There's no arguing with people who genuinely believe this. Unless you're facing deliberately unreasonable opposition like Larsson or Reilly were last season, QoC is largely irrelevant for general use top-4 D. The math supports that QoT >>> zone starts > QoC in terms of impact on a players stats.

"THE MATH SUPPORTS" , thats some algorythm you muse have, you sound so smart! Please tell me of this math you're talking about with a thorough explanation, instead of making a hysterical blank statement just to sound smart on the internet.

All those stats are important (QoT, zone draws, QoC), the issue is that Gardiner's QoC has always been laughable. Throughout his career his coaches have never trusted him enough to have him play vs tough competition or give him PK minutes, i guess there must be a reason for that? He's gone through multiple coaches at this point.

Every high end dman in the league faces high end competition (and the numbers obviously back this up), its illogical to suggest otherwise (and it would really take a special kind of stupid to think otherwise, as you would say). The truly elite ones separate themselves based on how well they perform vs their opposition, their zone draws, the quality of their teammates etc etc. There's plenty of other important advanced stats aswell, QoC is one of the fundamentals stats tho.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

This is such a ridiculous proposal. I LOVE Faulk and appreciate his abilities, but the value is simply not close.

Marner + Gardiner for Faulk would be similar to Patrick Kane + Hjalmarsson for Letang. Simply doesn't make sense.

Massive overpayment from the Leafs in this proposal.

Would you leaf fans PLEASE stop equating Marner to Pat Kane?

 

[The Thin White Duke]

"THE MATH SUPPORTS" , thats some algorythm that you muse have, you sound so smart!

QoC in an individual game or playoff series matters, sure. Over the course of a season it does not matter in any significant way if you're not being used in a very limited specialist role with very low TOI.

...the guy with the toughest competition in the league will face an average opponent who is +2 corsi/60, while the guy facing the weakest will face an average opponent who is -2 corsi/60. And nearly all players won’t be in these extremes – most will be within -1 corsi/60 and +1 corsi/60. And as you might expect the gap between opponents who are +1 shot attempts per 60 and those -1 is practically nothing.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/23/the-importance-of-quality-of-competition

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/11/16/distribution-of-quality-of-competition-and-teammates-metrics/

All those stats are important (QoT, zone draws, QoC), the issue is that Gardiner's QoC has always been laughable. Throughout his career his coaches have never trusted him enough to have him play vs tough competition or give him PK minutes, i guess there must be a reason for that? He's gone through multiple coaches at this point.

No, over the course of a full season QoC is really not important outside of extreme situations. Gardiner is not an extreme situation. He plays against top competition, it is not within his, or his coach's control to shelter him from such competition if he plays 20 minutes a night. It is in his coach's control to actually play him for 20 minutes a night, and all 3 of his coaches have seemed to embrace playing him in big minutes, weird that they'd do that for a guy they "can't trust" right?

PK minutes are irrelevant unless you think they make Roman Polak a good defenseman. How is the PK skillset (block a shot, ice the puck) relevant 5on5 when you can't just slap it off the boards? It's a bonus when guys like Doughty or Hedman can use their 5on5 skillsets on the PK, but it doesn't diminish them if their team goes out to get a PK specialist to take the physical load off of them.

Every high end dman in the dman faces high end competition, its illogical to suggest otherwise (and it would really take a special kind of stupid to think otherwise, as you would say). The truly elite ones separate themselves based on how well they perform vs their opposition, their zone draws, the quality of their teammates etc etc. There's plenty of other important advanced stats aswell, QoC is one of the fundamentals stats tho.

Again, QoC is not "fundamental' in the big picture. Gardiner performs well against top opposition unless you can show me otherwise somehow. Would you say Gardiner benefits significantly from the "quality" of his teammates right now? Keep in mind his most common linemates last year by TOI were: Phaneuf, Parenteau, Kadri, Bozak, Holland, Komarov and Grabner. His most common D-partner once Phaneuf was traded was waiver-wire pickup Frankie Corrado. These are the factors that were most relevant in his shot metrics, not his QoC or his zone starts.

Now with all of this, are you still going to carry on with the idea that his positive shot metrics are somehow a result of getting "sheltered"? Or can we finally admit that he performed very well last year considering the single most important factor on his shot metrics was actually dragging him down last season?

 

[TT1]

QoC in an individual game or playoff series matters, sure. Over the course of a season it does not matter in any significant way if you're not being used in a very limited specialist role with very low TOI.



http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/23/the-importance-of-quality-of-competition

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/11/16/distribution-of-quality-of-competition-and-teammates-metrics/



No, over the course of a full season QoC is really not important outside of extreme situations. Gardiner is not an extreme situation. He plays against top competition, it is not within his, or his coach's control to shelter him from such competition if he plays 20 minutes a night. It is in his coach's control to actually play him for 20 minutes a night, and all 3 of his coaches have seemed to embrace playing him in big minutes, weird that they'd do that for a guy they "can't trust" right?

PK minutes are irrelevant unless you think they make Roman Polak a good defenseman. How is the PK skillset (block a shot, ice the puck) relevant 5on5 when you can't just slap it off the boards? It's a bonus when guys like Doughty or Hedman can use their 5on5 skillsets on the PK, but it doesn't diminish them if their team goes out to get a PK specialist to take the physical load off of them.



Again, QoC is not "fundamental' in the big picture. Gardiner performs well against top opposition unless you can show me otherwise somehow. Would you say Gardiner benefits significantly from the "quality" of his teammates right now? Keep in mind his most common linemates last year by TOI were: Phaneuf, Parenteau, Kadri, Bozak, Holland, Komarov and Grabner. His most common D-partner once Phaneuf was traded was waiver-wire pickup Frankie Corrado. These are the factors that were most relevant in his shot metrics, not his QoC or his zone starts.

Now with all of this, are you still going to carry on with the idea that his positive shot metrics are somehow a result of getting "sheltered"? Or can we finally admit that he performed very well last year considering the single most important factor on his shot metrics was actually dragging him down last season?

Over the past 2 seasons Gardiner has been T.O's FOURTH most used dman (he gets about 17.30 mins at ES and the rest is PP minutes). On top of that he has primarily faced bottom 6 players throughout his career, if those aren't soft/sheltered minutes then i dont know what else to tell you. You're not gonna get a young #1 dman for an offensive 2nd pairing dman + a prospect, its as simple as that.

 

[GoldiFox]

Would you leaf fans PLEASE stop equating Marner to Pat Kane?

At the very least they could stop calling him a "better all around" Pat Kane. Marner has a looooong way to go before becoming Pat Kane, much less Pat Kane++.

 

[Mr Hockey*]

Over the past 2 seasons Gardiner has been T.O's FOURTH most used dman (he gets about 17.30 mins at ES and the rest is PP minutes). On top of that he has primarily faced bottom 6 players throughout his career, if those aren't soft/sheltered minutes then i dont know what else to tell you. You're not gonna get a young #1 dman for an offensive 2nd pairing dman + a prospect, its as simple as that.

I am a leaf fan and totally agree, he is a very sheltered d'man (QRCoC 0.057) and also does not play PK or shutdown down minutes and is a 2nd unit PP guy. If you keep him in that role he is a good 2nd pairing #4 guy. Most leaf fans consider him a top pairing #1 d'man (Hero chart), so good luck trying to convince them

 

[hawksrule]

At the very least they could stop calling him a "better all around" Pat Kane. Marner has a looooong way to go before becoming Pat Kane, much less Pat Kane++.

I feel bad for the kid, because they're going to turn hard on him when he's nowhere near the next Patrick Kane, which is the most likely outcome. They're setting some seeiously unrealistic expectations.