[Friedman] Pittsburgh hires Kyle Dubas as President of Hockey Operations

[GirardSpinorama]

That's way more on the core than on Dubas. Dubas shouldn't have to babysit the core and establish a standard of professionalism. The core should be doing that because they're the actual leaders of the team.

Sure if Dubas' was just an AGM or number crunching analyst. But when you are the GM, that's a big part of your job.

 

[Divine]

Ironically, the year Dubas moved away from analytics is the year he had the most success

His trade deadline moves weren't his new analytics model - it was old school hockey moves. He went for bigger, tougher players, even having bad seasons instead of analytic darlings. He basically shifted his view to that of a traditional GM, had more success than normal and he's now dubbed this new school GM - partly because he looks nerdy with his glasses and loves reading a thesaurus for bigger words to use.

Also, in terms of people thinking hiring Dubas eliminated the nepotism in the NHL, it absolutely does not. It just shifts it in a different direction. Remember, Dubas' dad and grandfather both worked for the Soo and that's how he got his job. Since then, he's hired Keefe from the Soo, brought along a bunch of Soo colleagues and almost every player he trades for has some connection to the Soo. Dubas has his own old boys club revolving around the Soo.

I guess it changes because now it's the junior old boys club instead of the NHL, but I'm not sure if that makes it better or worse.

 

[Turin]

Ironically, the year Dubas moved away from analytics is the year he had the most success

His trade deadline moves weren't his new analytics model - it was old school hockey moves. He went for bigger, tougher players, even having bad seasons instead of analytic darlings. He basically shifted his view to that of a traditional GM, had more success than normal and he's now dubbed this new school GM - partly because he looks nerdy with his glasses and loves reading a thesaurus for bigger words to use.

Also, in terms of people thinking hiring Dubas eliminated the nepotism in the NHL. It absolutely does not, it just shifts it in a different direction. Remember, Dubas dad and grandfather both worked for the Soo and that's how he got his job. Since then, he's hired Keefe from the Soo and almost every player he trades for has some connection to the Soo. Dubas has his own old boys club revolving around the Soo.

I guess it changes because now it's the junior old boys club instead of the NHL, but I'm not sure if that makes it better or worse.

Or maybe you have no idea what the teams proprietary analytics say.

 

[Divine]

Or maybe you have no idea what the teams proprietary analytics say.

Schenn, McCabe, Acciari, RoR (on a down year), Lafferty are old school GM moves. Those are the kind of moves every GM in the league makes. Burke would make those moves. Those are all physical contact players with less skill - typical 'built for the playoffs' play style that every traditional GM follows.

He traded away a skilled player in Malgin for a physical 4th liner in Hunt. He even traded away his own non-physical Soo drafted player in Sandin.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sure if Dubas' was just an AGM or number crunching analyst. But when you are the GM, that's a big part of your job.

These guys are among the highest paid players in hockey. The leadership in the locker room falls substantially more on them than the GM or even the coach.

Blaming the GM for the players not doing what they're paid and expected to do makes no sense. It's one thing if a GM makes a bad move and brings in a bad player or brings in a bad locker room guy that disrupts the room. But guys like Tavares, Matthews, Marner and such are paid a huge amount of money and are expected to be leaders and show up when games matter. That's not on Dubas, that's entirely on the players.

All Dubas could do was surround the core with the best team around them. His failures are related to that. Any sort of shortcomings with the core is on the shoulders of the core.

 

[Ace]

These guys are among the highest paid players in hockey. The leadership in the locker room falls substantially more on them than the GM or even the coach.

Boy…I’d hate to be the GM that paid them then.

Who was that btw?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Boy…I’d hate to be the GM that paid them then.

Who was that btw?

So you think Dubas should have let them walk?

Good luck selling that plan to Shanahan and the owners.

 

[Turin]

Schenn, McCabe, Acciari, RoR (on a down year), Lafferty are old school GM moves. Those are the kind of moves every GM in the league makes. Burke would make those moves. Those are all physical contact players with less skill - typical 'built for the playoffs' play style that every traditional GM follows.

He traded away a skilled player in Malgin for a physical 4th liner in Hunt. He even traded away his own non-physical Soo drafted player in Sandin.

Sure, except McCabe, Acciari, RoR usually have excellent public analytics and Schenn and Lafferty are depth. And again, maybe your dichotomy between old school and team data doesn't actually exist.

 

[Divine]

Sure, except McCabe, Acciari, RoR usually have excellent public analytics and Schenn and Lafferty are depth. And again, maybe your dichotomy between old school and team data doesn't actually exist.

I guess every GM in the league is an analytics guy by your definition.

Was Sandin for Gustafsson an analytics move too?
What about Malgin for Hunt?
The Nick Ritchie signing?
The Wayne Simmonds signing?
The Kyle Clifford signing?
The Matt Murray trade?

 

[Empoleon8771]

I guess every GM in the league is an analytics guy by your definition.

Was Sandin for Gustafsson an analytics move too?
What about Malgin for Hunt?
The Nick Ritchie signing?
The Wayne Simmonds signing?
The Kyle Clifford signing?
The Matt Murray trade?

All of those 3 seem like old-school moves that Dubas made, but it's also weird to mention them in the context of trying to say "his old-school moves were better" because all of those moves were awful moves.

 

[nturn06]

Both in 2019 and 2021, 22 and now in 2023 the Leafs star players shit. the. bed. They had a legitimate path to the Cup all 3 of those seasons and every time the Leafs stars wilted instead of stepped up.

In 2019 they had a 3-2 series lead and Columbus. Carolina and St. Louis ahead of them. They could have won the Cup that year. But instead they no completely no-show game 6 and 7.

In 2021 they lost to Montreal by blowing a 3-1 series lead. Enough said. They went completely dry, and despite the choking probably would have won if Tavares didn't get injured that series.

In 2022 they were dead-even with the Lightning if not slightly better and just couldn't muster any offense at all in game 7.

And now this year they let their guard down against Florida and from games 1-3 vs Florida Matthews and Marner did absolutely nothing.


Yea.. he really doubled down on soft skill after trading Sandin and Engvall and bringing in ROR, McCabe, Lafferty, Acciari and Schenn. Dubas' biggest mistake was not prioritizing skill enough this last TDL. I bet you still think the Leafs suck defensively too, despite being 5th in the league in GA.

Wasn't one of the reasons (if not the main reason) Babcock was fired the fact that he was playing bums like Hyman over these star players?

As for the last paragraph, I think that you are missing the fact that at the last deadline he traded alsmot everything of value he had left. He could had probably not get more skill than he got because he traded too much in the past.

Over the following 3 drafts the Leafs have traded away
-two firsts
-three seconds
-two thirds
-two fourths
-one sevent
All that for 1 series win in 5 years.

 

[Turin]

Wasn't one of the reasons (if not the main reason) Babcock was fired the fact that he was playing bums like Hyman over these star players?

As for the last paragraph, I think that you are missing the fact that at the last deadline he traded alsmot everything of value he had left. He could had probably not get more skill than he got because he traded too much in the past.

Over the following 3 drafts the Leafs have traded away
-two firsts
-three seconds
-two thirds
-two fourths
-one sevent
All that for 1 series win in 5 years.

No? Dubas loved Hyman and was the person who brought him onto the team. Babcock was fired because he made tactical mistakes and alienated his star players.

I guess every GM in the league is an analytics guy by your definition.

Was Sandin for Gustafsson an analytics move too?
What about Malgin for Hunt?
The Nick Ritchie signing?
The Wayne Simmonds signing?
The Kyle Clifford signing?
The Matt Murray trade?

Idk? I don't have access to the team analytics. But most of those moves were for 4th line depth? Lol.

 

[Fatass]

Yes, he build an amazing team. He build an amazing core by drafting Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, Kadri, Hyman, Anderssen, Kapanen, Johnsson... Oh wait, nevermind, he just inherted those, and gave away the last few and 5-6 first rounders with no playoffs success.....

Not too sure if your point. Wasn’t Dubas with the Leafs as an assistant GM (draft) when those guys were drafted? Lou was the GM but Dubas was there influencing the draft? no? Seems like Shsnahsn new who the guy was behind building that great Leafs’ club, that’s why he let Lou go and kept Kyle. The Pens are getting a great hockey guy. Big loss for the Leafs imo.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wasn't one of the reasons (if not the main reason) Babcock was fired the fact that he was playing bums like Hyman over these star players?

As for the last paragraph, I think that you are missing the fact that at the last deadline he traded alsmot everything of value he had left. He could had probably not get more skill than he got because he traded too much in the past.

Over the following 3 drafts the Leafs have traded away
-two firsts
-three seconds
-two thirds
-two fourths
-one sevent
All that for 1 series win in 5 years.

So Dubas is to be criticized for for....spending assets to help the team improve?

If the guys Dubas added played well but the team failed for other reasons, how does that negatively reflect on Dubas?

 

[Peat]

Re size and analytics

The point of analytics isn't "here's this one data set, it's amazing, do everything by it"

The point is to keep measuring and measuring and comparing and comparing until you start finding real predictive factors.

You can 100% find people doing analytical studies on whether heavier, more physical players matter more in the playoffs. And as such, yeah, it's quite possible that some teams move to get heavier and more physical in the playoffs is driven by analytics.

 

[Channelcat]

So you think Dubas should have let them walk?

Good luck selling that plan to Shanahan and the owners.

They would have been ahead right now. The return would have been very substantial.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

And moves that result in what was expected is called an average move.

No. Moves that result in exactly what you wanted are good moves, particularly when the player in question delivers positional versatility, ability to play up and down the roster, fantastic defense, and 9 points in 11 playoff games.

 

[Divine]

So Dubas is to be criticized for for....spending assets to help the team improve?

If the guys Dubas added played well but the team failed for other reasons, how does that negatively reflect on Dubas?

Because Dubas constructed the team.

What other reasons did the team fail because of other than on-ice play?

Dubas traded away players he inherited, maybe the wrong players, causing the team to fail. I think the Leafs would have been better off with Kadri over Tavares + cap space but Dubas changed the construction of the team he inherited.

If you believe the core can't win, then Dubas should have probably moved them instead of Kadri/Moore/Marchment/Hyman/Andersen/Brown/McCann, etc.

The team did not fail for any reason other than on-ice performance, which Dubas is responsible for. If you're blaming the core, blame Dubas also because he kept saying "We can and we will" in regards to keeping the core intact after every 1st round exit.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Because Dubas constructed the team.

What other reasons did the team fail because of other than on-ice play?

Dubas traded away players he inherited, maybe the wrong players, causing the team to fail. I think the Leafs would have been better off with Kadri over Tavares + cap space but Dubas changed the construction of the team he inherited.

Unless you're in the 1% of Leaf fans who felt the bolded at the time, I'm calling BS on that. It's only *now* that Leaf fans are criticizing the Tavares signing. 99.9% of my interactions with Leaf fans since the moment Tavares was signed was them in favor and being critical of me saying it was a bad move.

Again, if you're in that tiny, miniscule percentage of fans who were against the signing, so be it. But it's funny listening to Leaf fans criticize Dubas for the Tavares signing (and the Matthews and Marner contracts) NOW considering just how much blowback I got for any time I've questioned them in the past.

The amount of sheer vitriol I faced in numerous discussions with regards to Tavares, Marner and Matthews in the past only for now so many Leaf fans using those signings/contracts as arguments for why Dubas failed at building the team is staggering.

 

[Divine]

Unless you're in the 1% of Leaf fans who felt the bolded at the time, I'm calling BS on that. It's only *now* that Leaf fans are criticizing the Tavares signing. 99.9% of my interactions with Leaf fans since the moment Tavares was signed was them in favor and being critical of me saying it was a bad move.

Again, if you're in that tiny, miniscule percentage of fans who were against the signing, so be it. But it's funny listening to Leaf fans criticize Dubas for the Tavares signing (and the Matthews and Marner contracts) NOW considering just how much blowback I got for any time I've questioned them in the past.

The amount of sheer vitriol I faced in numerous discussions with regards to Tavares, Marner and Matthews in the past only for now so many Leaf fans using those signings/contracts as arguments for why Dubas failed at building the team is staggering.

So is the team built by the fans? Why is Dubas earning 40M dollars if the metric to judge Dubas' success is if the fans liked the move at the time?

He's the one who created the biggest analytics department in the NHL (and in pro sports) and has access to metrics and stats not available to the public. He's the one who's employed by an NHL team and is responsible for the success of the team. He's the one who was able to sink millions of dollars in contracts he signed because he had a competitive advantage being employed by a rich team.

What the fans thought doesn't matter, they are fans - not paid employees with infinite data. Of course fans are going to be happy about a big name UFA signing. The average fan doesn't even watch every game, let alone other teams.

Why are you blaming the fans being happy about the move as justification? He should be measured by his results, not what the fan on HfBoards thought.

If every fan hated the move and Dubas wins the Cup - does it not count beacause the fans hated it?

Your problem is you're comparing Dubas to an HfBoards poster. He's a GM, he is judged on results, not HfBoards polls - as hard as that is to fathom.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I think a couple things can be true.

COVID hurt the Leafs probably more than any other team. They banked on the cap going up. They signed Tavares and worked to keep AM, MM and WN under contract during the prime years of the Tavares contract with the understanding that by now, as a % of the cap those deals would largely be fine.

You can criticize Dubas for not adjusting the strategy but to be fair, I think they still made the best decisions they could. They can't move JT, they shouldn't move AM, and WN is under a bargain contract for the on-ice value he provides. You're left with Marner - and the question is, are you better trading Marner and reallocating his cap space or keeping him? Based on what I expect the return would be, I would bet that the on-ice value Marner provides is better.

Its not as simple as "well, adjust" when the adjustments available are worse. Dubas built teams that set franchise records in points, the idea the result would have been different just by offloading Marner or Nylander for something else, while possible, to me isn't any more likely than running it back.

I think Pittsburgh is in good hands - Dubas is an above average GM in this league who is only going to get better his second time around. I think the task in Pittsburgh is much harder, but i'm excited to see how he puts his stamp on that roster.

 

[Voight]

Wow Dubas making nearly 6 million a year for 7 years. Does that make him the highest paid executive in the league?

I could be wrong but I believe Ken Holland is the highest paid GM in the league @ $5million/year so yea Dubas could very well be the highest paid POHO/GM.

 

[nturn06]

So Dubas is to be criticized for for....spending assets to help the team improve?

If the guys Dubas added played well but the team failed for other reasons, how does that negatively reflect on Dubas?

No, he gets criticized for repeatedly wasting assets with no results.

Your last paragraph, and the most common excuse he gets, is that "he build a team who failed, it's not his fault"... 1 year can be an accident, multiples years in a row is pattern.

 

[nturn06]

Not too sure if your point. Wasn’t Dubas with the Leafs as an assistant GM (draft) when those guys were drafted? Lou was the GM but Dubas was there influencing the draft? no? Seems like Shsnahsn new who the guy was behind building that great Leafs’ club, that’s why he let Lou go and kept Kyle. The Pens are getting a great hockey guy. Big loss for the Leafs imo.

Sure...

All the great picks done by the previous GM were actually Dubas' choices. Not only that but all Dubas' good trades were his, all the bad ones were forced by Shannahan. Amazing GM.

At the end of the day, the first round pick is always the GM's responsability. They always get criticized for blowing it, and unless the AGM is Dubas, the GM is always getting the praise for a good pick.

 

[Fatass]

Sure...

All the great picks done by the previous GM were actually Dubas' choices. Not only that but all Dubas' good trades were his, all the bad ones were forced by Shannahan. Amazing GM.

At the end of the day, the first round pick is always the GM's responsability. They always get criticized for blowing it, and unless the AGM is Dubas, the GM is always getting the praise for a good pick.

Sure the picks are tagged to the GM, but Shanahan promoted Dubas and let Lou go. There were reasons for that. The club then went from a good team (105 points) to a great team (115 points) with Dubas. Now Dubas is in Pittsburgh. Seems they are getting a guy who is very good at his job.