GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Joseph Nathan]

Yeah, 51 point players being paid $750K have zero market value.

Dude a really good 2 way player who gets between 50 to 60 points got given away for zilch. The cap sucks for alot of teams

 

[kb]

Dude a really good 2 way player who gets between 50 to 60 points got given away for zilch. The cap sucks for alot of teams

Who are you referring to?

Hopefully not the one way scorer who had tons of PP time and counts $2 million more on the cap and is being paid $4.5 million more in real dollars?

 

[Joseph Nathan]

Who are you referring to?

Hopefully not the one way scorer who had tons of PP time and counts $2 million more on the cap and is being paid $4.5 million more in real dollars?

Respectfully he's a good two way player

 

[kb]

Respectfully he's a good two way player

But no matter how one looks at it, they are not even close to being in comparable situations.

It's like saying no goalie will ever get a good return after the Murray deal.

 

[Legion34]

Not sure where you got any of this. The 8 years would have obviously cost more than 5 years on a post-ELC contract. It literally always does, regardless of what the cap is projected to do. You seem to have taken this basic fact of contracts and somehow attributed it to the future cap increase when there's no evidence of that. The reported price for the additional 3 years was not in any way abnormal - it was standard. Matthews was reportedly open to a variety of terms and the only reason they didn't do 8 was to make sure everybody fit in. There's no reason to believe that Matthews is suddenly going to 180 and try to screw over the Leafs instead of taking an 8 year UFA deal that is best for both the teams ability to compete and the player's financial stability.

No, more importantly, you're buying additional mid-prime-aged UFA years that are worth more than the earlier years of his deal, raising the overall cap hit. Had nothing to do with what you think the cap may be more than half a decade in the future. The difference between 5 years and 8 years would have been substantially higher if they were working off of a 100m cap that it was projected to be by that point. And we'd be seeing different trends with current UFA deals that stretch into that massive projected cap increase.

I got “any of this” from the multiple reports
From insiders that year and summer. They explained exactly why the leafs settled on 5 and why all the RFAs that year signed short term.

it is known and widely reported that after the success of seattle and the rumoured tv deals Everyone expected the cap to go up. They all signed short term with high QO to cash in

This is known and indisputable. You can feel free to be as wrong as you like. But the signings in that summer were well documented.

Of course you will still decide you are right. Based on nothing In particular. Continue to feel free to be wrong about the original contract……


Present day

My personal guess. Which could be completely wrong is the same known and indisputable thought process from that time will still hold.
Which COULD Lead him to want a short term deal.

We don’t know that. Allan Walsh has his own podcast and he has predicted this. Who knows if he will be right. Different agents may advise differently. Many players have signed for 8. They may be spooked by the pandemic and the recession. Most of These are also players who don’t have 60 million in the bank to make bets.

Laine just signed for 4 years to become a ufa at 28. My personal guess based on his past history is Auston might sign for a short term deal at a cheaper rate. And cash in when the cap is 100. Orrrrr the leafs pay him whatever % he wants based on the projected cap.

We will see.

 

[nuck]

I'd try and see if Kampf would be interested in something like a 6 or 7 year deal, especially if that helped keep the aav on the lower end.

I'm not particularly worried about his defensive abilities going away anytime over that period

This was Kampf's career year. If he regresses at all he cant play top 9 so he needs to be locked in at no more than his current deal and more than 4 years would probably be a mistake. If he has a repeat of this year they will have an interesting decision because he will want to get paid.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dude a really good 2 way player who gets between 50 to 60 points got given away for zilch. The cap sucks for alot of teams

Are we talking about Bjorkstrand, because "really good 2 way player" is not how I would describe him?

30-30 winger with the right opportunities? Sure. He probably can get there and almost did so this year.

I think if he was a UFA, he would effectively get the same contract. Burakovsky was signed to a very similar contract for a little bit more term but he has more success and he cost no assets.

In general, Bjorkstrand is a good player and he is probably worth more, but a guy like him probably does not get more than a B prospect and a 2nd in a trade.

 

[Menzinger]

This was Kampf's career year. If he regresses at all he cant play top 9 so he needs to be locked in at no more than his current deal and more than 4 years would probably be a mistake. If he has a repeat of this year they will have an interesting decision because he will want to get paid.

I'd lock him up long term strictly for his defensive contributions and giving him term gets him in as a fixed cost in terms of cap planning.

Considering he's a guy whose likely not going to get much more than 2ish mil at worst, I don't see much risk with a long term deal

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This was Kampf's career year. If he regresses at all he cant play top 9 so he needs to be locked in at no more than his current deal and more than 4 years would probably be a mistake. If he has a repeat of this year they will have an interesting decision because he will want to get paid.

Let him get paid. He is a good defensive center, but I am confident we can find another guy like him the same way we got him, and we have guys like Douglas, Abramov, and Holmberg coming up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I got “any of this” from the multiple reports From insiders that year and summer.

Except none of them said any of that. You took things that were reported and then inserted your own reasoning that there's no evidence of.

They explained exactly why the leafs settled on 5

Yeah, because it allowed them to fit everybody in and build around them better.

it is known and widely reported that after the success of seattle and the rumoured tv deals Everyone expected the cap to go up. They all signed short term with high QO to cash in

They didn't "all" sign bridge deals with high QOs, and based on the logic you're using, and the idea that teams pay in the present based on a speculated and unknown future cap, they wouldn't have had to take bridge deals in the first place. They would have just taken long term deals based on a 95-100m cap, but that's obviously not how this works.

More importantly, this has nothing to do with Matthews or his deal. Whatever others did, he didn't do that, and there's no reason to believe that Matthews is suddenly going to 180 and try to screw over the Leafs instead of taking an 8 year UFA deal that is best for both the teams ability to compete and the player's financial stability.

Laine just signed for 4 years to become a ufa at 28.

Matthews =/= Laine
Toronto =/= Columbus

These are really not comparable at all. Columbus probably doesn't want to invest 8 years into someone like Laine, and Laine probably doesn't want to invest 8 years into a place like Columbus. Maybe some players will try to manipulate term to maximize money in the changing cap environment, but there's really nothing to indicate that Matthews will. And if he does, we're certainly not going to get him cheaper on a shorter term UFA deal than if we signed him for the 8 years.

 

[Legion34]

Except none of them said any of that. You took things that were reported and then inserted your own reasoning that there's no evidence of.

Yeah, because it allowed them to fit everybody in and build around them better.

They didn't "all" sign bridge deals with high QOs, and based on the logic you're using, and the idea that teams pay in the present based on a speculated and unknown future cap, they wouldn't have had to take bridge deals in the first place. They would have just taken long term deals based on a 95-100m cap, but that's obviously not how this works.

More importantly, this has nothing to do with Matthews or his deal. Whatever others did, he didn't do that, and there's no reason to believe that Matthews is suddenly going to 180 and try to screw over the Leafs instead of taking an 8 year UFA deal that is best for both the teams ability to compete and the player's financial stability.

Matthews =/= Laine
Toronto =/= Columbus

These are really not comparable at all. Columbus probably doesn't want to invest 8 years into someone like Laine, and Laine probably doesn't want to invest 8 years into a place like Columbus. Maybe some players will try to manipulate term to maximize money in the changing cap environment, but there's really nothing to indicate that Matthews will. And if he does, we're certainly not going to get him cheaper on a shorter term UFA deal than if we signed him for the 8 years.

Again. The reasons why the leafs and Matthews settled on a 5 year deal were widely reported. It’s not my opinion. It is known.

I am repeating what was said. You can ignore it if you want. But it’s absolutely true that RFAs after the success of LV and thr projected jump in cap were setting themselves up for big paydays when it jumped.

I don’t know what Matthews will do. Again allan Walsh has claimed that he thinks that players will sign short term and try to get the payday. We don’t know if other agents will do this.
Others didn’t. Laine just did.

Laine isn’t Matthews. Matthews is Matthews.

Matthews already signed short to try to time a cap jump once. Let’s see if he does it again.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Again. The reasons why the leafs and Matthews settled on a 5 year deal were widely reported. It’s not my opinion. It is known.

I am repeating what was said. You can ignore it if you want. But it’s absolutely true that RFAs after the success of LV and thr projected jump in cap were setting themselves up for big paydays when it jumped.

I don’t know what Matthews will do. Again allan Walsh has claimed that he thinks that players will sign short term and try to get the payday. We don’t know if other agents will do this.
Others didn’t. Laine just did.

Laine isn’t Matthews. Matthews is Matthews.

Matthews already signed short to try to time a cap jump once. Let’s see if he does it again.

Matthews also wasn't incredibly happy with Babcock either.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again. The reasons why the leafs and Matthews settled on a 5 year deal were widely reported. It’s not my opinion. It is known.

Yes. Again. They settled on a 5 year deal (when Matthews was open to an 8 year deal at a normal increase in cap hit) because it allowed them to fit everybody in and build around them better. This was widely reported and known, so I'm not sure why you're trying to represent it otherwise.

Matthews already signed short to try to time a cap jump once. Let’s see if he does it again.

Matthews never did that. There's no reason to think he suddenly will.

 

[Menzinger]

Why would Laine who got 8.7 carry more weight than Nylander who will be UFA?
That’s the point.
Do you think it’s unreasonable for Nylander to be looking for a 2 million raise on his current 7.5 in 2 years? That’s what Forsberg got as an increase. From 6 million to 8.5.

What do you think he will ask for?

I don't think Laine is a particularly good comparison. He was a former 2nd overall, had 44 goals as a sophomore and then has been inconsistent since. Guys like Fiala/Forsberg look to be much better direct comparisons based on role + production and post ELC development.

I also don't think one should automatically presume Nylander will need 2+ mil in a raise. Forsberg was starting at a lower base number on due to his rfa deal so it's logical his jump in money will potentially be larger than Nylanders (whose starting at at almost 7 mil aav).

I think Nylander will sign for under 9mil aav over 7-8 years based on today's cap (would be adjusted for rising cap). Essentially a number starting with an 8.

 

[Legion34]

Matthews also wasn't incredibly happy with Babcock either.

Sure. That’s true. I have no idea what he will do this time.

I know what he did do last time. He signed at a very reasonable 14% AAV for 5 years

I know what the insiders reported his reasons were.

I know that Allan Walsh is speculating that players will sign short term to time the jump.

I am GUESSING that he might do the same. Sign a similar rate for 3. And then time the jump for a last contract.

 

[ULF_55]

I don't think Laine is a particularly good comparison. He was a former 2nd overall, had 44 goals as a sophomore and then has been inconsistent since. Guys like Fiala/Forsberg look to be much better direct comparisons based on role + production and post ELC development.

I also don't think one should automatically presume Nylander will need 2+ mil in a raise. Forsberg was starting at a lower base number on due to his rfa deal so it's logical his jump in money will potentially be larger than Nylanders (whose starting at at almost 7 mil aav).

I think Nylander will sign for under 9mil aav over 7-8 years based on today's cap (would be adjusted for rising cap). Essentially a number starting with an 8.

So do you keep marner at 14mm?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Sure. That’s true. I have no idea what he will do this time.

I know what he did do last time. He signed at a very reasonable 14% AAV for 5 years

I know what the insiders reported his reasons were.

I know that Allan Walsh is speculating that players will sign short term to time the jump.

I am GUESSING that he might do the same. Sign a similar rate for 3. And then time the jump for a last contract.

Historically speaking, most guys go for the retirement contract. I expect both Matthews and Marner are gonna be given really good 8 year commitments from the team.

 

[Trapper]

I don't think Laine is a particularly good comparison. He was a former 2nd overall, had 44 goals as a sophomore and then has been inconsistent since. Guys like Fiala/Forsberg look to be much better direct comparisons based on role + production and post ELC development.

I also don't think one should automatically presume Nylander will need 2+ mil in a raise. Forsberg was starting at a lower base number on due to his rfa deal so it's logical his jump in money will potentially be larger than Nylanders (whose starting at at almost 7 mil aav).

I think Nylander will sign for under 9mil aav over 7-8 years based on today's cap (would be adjusted for rising cap). Essentially a number starting with an 8.

Nylander held out for 2 months to get more than Pastrnak at the time.
Today’s RFAs from Fiala, Norris and Laine are getting paid between 7.8 - 8.7.
Nylander will be UFA and wasn’t an easy negotiation last time. Plus he’s going to watch Matthews and then Marner get raises again. He already makes 4 million less.
Don’t see it next time. 8.5 for Forsberg and now adjust for inflation 2 years from now.
Again, I’m fine with Nylander at his current salary but would not be going towards 9 at all. That’s why I’d be looking to move him.
Unless we have a new GM by then with a different plan.

 

[Legion34]

Yes. Again. They settled on a 5 year deal (when Matthews was open to an 8 year deal at a normal increase in cap hit) because it allowed them to fit everybody in and build around them better. This was widely reported and known, so I'm not sure why you're trying to represent it otherwise.

Matthews never did that. There's no reason to think he suddenly will.

That is what exactly he did based on insider reports.
We know what Matthews did. We don’t know what Matthews will do. I don’t even see taking a 3 year deal at a similar rate as “screwing the leafs” to me it would be a win-win. He could keep a similar rate. Let them compete and cash in when the cap jumps.

To me thats better than taking a massive hit at -‘ 84.5 cap.

The idea that Matthews will take a % based
On 84.5 million cap when the cap is going to jump is silly.

Historically speaking, most guys go for the retirement contract. I expect both Matthews and Marner are gonna be given really good 8 year commitments from the team.

Sure. And most guys aren’t coming out of a flat cap knowing the cap is going to Jump. What would you advise as an agent?

Sign an 8 year based on an 84.5 in 2024…….. or wait to sign based on a 95 million cap in 2027

It will depend on health risk level etc.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That is what exactly he did based on insider reports.

That is false. Insider reports stated that Matthews was willing to take an 8 year deal (at a normal increase in cap hit), but Toronto opted to go for the very common 5 year deal because it allowed them to sign all of their core players without bridges and be able to build around them. There was never a report that Matthews forced the 5 year deal to cash in on a cap increase. You just randomly decided that all on your own with zero evidence.

I don’t even see taking a 3 year deal at a similar rate as “screwing the leafs”

Matthews is not going to sign a 3 year UFA deal through ages 27-29 for cheaper than he would make on an 8 year deal. That's just wildly unrealistic and not how contracts work.

 

[WTFMAN99]

That is what exactly he did based on insider reports.
We know what Matthews did. We don’t know what Matthews will do. I don’t even see taking a 3 year deal at a similar rate as “screwing the leafs” to me it would be a win-win. He could keep a similar rate. Let them compete and cash in when the cap jumps.

To me thats better than taking a massive hit at -‘ 84.5 cap.

The idea that Matthews will take a % based
On 84.5 million cap when the cap is going to jump is silly.



Sure. And most guys aren’t coming out of a flat cap knowing the cap is going to Jump. What would you advise as an agent?

Sign an 8 year based on an 84.5 in 2024…….. or wait to sign based on a 95 million cap in 2027

It will depend on health risk level etc.

Marner has been healthier than Matthews, maybe it makes sense for him.

They've both been well compensated by Toronto already, I think if a reasonable deal is offered to them for 8 years, signing bonuses, NMC etc...odds are it gets done I think.

No point in going too far down the hypothetical road though.

 

[Legion34]

That is false. Insider reports stated that Matthews was willing to take an 8 year deal (at a normal increase in cap hit), but Toronto opted to go for the very common 5 year deal because it allowed them to sign all of their core players without bridges and be able to build around them. There was never a report that Matthews forced the 5 year deal to cash in on a cap increase. You just randomly decided that all on your own with zero evidence.

Matthews is not going to sign a 3 year UFA deal through ages 27-29 for cheaper than he would make on an 8 year deal. That's just wildly unrealistic and not how contracts work.

It is not false. The suggestion that Matthews at an 8 year cap hit would be worth more than Mcdavid at the same is silly. They have the same agency. If the “normal rate” for years 6-8 of Matthews was more than Mcdavid by the same agency. Then they would have a lot of explaining to do to their crown jewel.

If dubas chose 5 instead of 8 for a minor difference he is a fool.

Facts are

Mcdavid signed pre Vegas when Everyone was expecting it to be an Arizona. Matthews signed post when they were expecting it to jump. Every star RFA prior signed 6-8 year. That one year they all signed 2-6. It’s not a coincidence

Insiders reported this. It is known.

As far as the future.

I don’t know if Matthews signs a 3 year deal of course I am guessing as an idea. I am not at all suggesting that I know this to be the case or am confident. Just suggesting a possibility.

We know the cap will be 84.5 under the current agreement Do you honestly think he signs for what 14-16% of 84.5 knowing the cap will jump in 1-2 years?

 

[MAB1]

So do you keep marner at 14mm?

Or sign McDavid with Marner's money + a little extra?

 

[Legion34]

That is false. Insider reports stated that Matthews was willing to take an 8 year deal (at a normal increase in cap hit), but Toronto opted to go for the very common 5 year deal because it allowed them to sign all of their core players without bridges and be able to build around them. There was never a report that Matthews forced the 5 year deal to cash in on a cap increase. You just randomly decided that all on your own with zero evidence.

Matthews is not going to sign a 3 year UFA deal through ages 27-29 for cheaper than he would make on an 8 year deal. That's just wildly unrealistic and not how contracts work.

It is not false. The suggestion that Matthews at an 8 year cap hit would be worth more than Mcdavid at the same is silly. They have the same agency. If the “normal rate” for years 6-8 of Matthews was more than Mcdavid by the same agency. Then they would have a lot of explaining to do to their crown jewel.

If dubas chose 5 instead of 8 for a minor difference he is a fool.

Facts are

Mcdavid signed pre Vegas when Everyone was expecting it to be an Arizona. Matthews signed post when they were expecting it to jump. Every star RFA prior signed 6-8 year. That one year they all signed 2-6. It’s not a coincidence

Insiders reported this. It is known.

As far as the future.

I don’t know if Matthews signs a 3 year deal of course I am guessing as an idea. I am not at all suggesting that I know this to be the case or am confident. Just suggesting a possibility.

We know the cap will be 84.5 under the current agreement Do you honestly think he signs for what 14-16% of 84.5 knowing the cap will jump in 1-2 years?

 

[zeke]