GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Rude Dog]

Still having a hard time coming to grips with the Murray trade. If things don't work out, can the Leafs simply send him down to the AHL, pay his salary but get full credit for his cap hit to find someone else at the deadline? If that's the case, I will feel a whole lot better about this.

 

[Fogelhund]

Still having a hard time coming to grips with the Murray trade. If things don't work out, can the Leafs simply send him down to the AHL, pay his salary but get full credit for his cap hit to find someone else at the deadline? If that's the case, I will feel a whole lot better about this.

No, that's not how the Salary Cap works. If they sent him down, they would get $ 1.125 million in cap relief this year, and the rest of the cap stays on the books.

 

[Stephen]

If you look at my initial post my argument is not that Niederreiter is a better player than Nylander, it is that he provides more value on his contract than Nylander. As you and I have discussed - you prefer GSVA. GSVA tells you the same story that Niederreiter is a far better play driver than Nylander.

I would definitely argue that the Canes are worse by swapping Trochek, TDA, Nino for Burns, Patches. They could be just as good as last year or better but I don't think those moves are a slam dunk win.


The argument is that Niederreiter provides better value on his contract which I will stand by until someone provides a good reason otherwise.

Points aren't everything in hockey and I don't understand why that's hard to comprehend.

Niederreiter would be welcome on my team at the price he signed with Nashville. I could see him providing a Hyman type role, provide a power game and some versatility. At $4 million, that’s decent value. But that’s not setting up an either or with Nylander though. He’s a top 3 or 4 forward and you bet points are important at that position.

 

[andora]

Yes and that's where the model is flawed. Unlike baseball the statistical models for hockey have a lot more noise considering the infinite amount of outcomes.

And you could have sustained o zone pressure like nino i haven't checked the numbers, but who gives a shit if that amounts to nothing? Are guys playing with nino scoring 80-90 pts? No.

They are not. It isn't about prerogative. This is doing a lot of mental gymnastics to paint something that just quite isn't true.

Should be stats tracking scoring after sustained pressure and how players driving zone time provide opportunities for the next line up and how players can increase opposition shift time

Yeah domething like that

I kinda wonder if they can accelerate or help Amirov out for last season by getting him on the Marlies this year and feed him 20-24 minutes a night ES/PP, maybe the following year try to get him to PK.

It's not the KHL but we can give way more minutes than they can and give him 1-2 call ups if he's having success as a measuring stick.

Jarnkrok honestly came in lower than I expected, I was projecting 3x3

No.. no yo yo callups no measuring stick

Just focus on him having a healthy solid year with ice time

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

There's a difference between having immense talent and putting up points like Nylander does and allowing your team to have sustained o-zone time like Niederreiter does. If you want to ignore the numbers then that's your prerogative.


That depends what model you use. GSVA values Marner over Bunting. GSVA also has Marner/Matthews at higher value per dollar than Nylander as we were originally discussing.

Yeah let's get rid of the guy who was second best player for half a season on a team he lead to a comfortable top 5 spot before finally slumping a bit for Niederreiter.

What a strategy to get better. Write 100 pages of noise about Niederreiter If you wish it won't change that your L column increase and W column decrease if you swap Nylander for him.

 

[Legion34]

A 5-year UFA deal would cost more than an 8 year UFA deal, as its always been. A 5 year deal would be age 27-31. Those additional age 32-34 years are entering into decline years, which lowers the price. How the cap is projected to grow is taken into consideration, but signings are primarily based on cap at the time of signing, and there's no way you're going to get Matthews on a 5-year deal for cheaper than an 8-year deal, regardless of what you may think the cap is going to be years from now.

Term is and always has been a trade off of financial and life security vs. maximizing your potential dollars. UFAs consistently choose security. If Matthews wants to take 1 year deals every year to maximize his earnings, that's up to him, but he can't just say pay me long term now as if the cap was 95m because I think it might be in half a decade. Many of the contracts being signed now are ones that will stretch into when the cap is 95m+, but they're still being signed at numbers consistent with the flat cap.

Yes I would agree on 5 vs 8. That would take him to 31 and the cap would have jumped.

Buying 26-31 and not being on the hook for 30s would be a premium.

I should have clarified. In the specific scenario where the cap is known to jump it would cost more to buy the last bunch of years.

We know this from Austons last negotiation. It was clearly known that pre pandemic the cap was supposed to jump. I think this year? But after seattle and the new tv deals. Auston wanted a higher hit on a longer deal to cover the cap jumps.

This is why point. Tkachuk etc all took bridge deals. There were a number of short term deals specifically for this reason.

I don’t see why matthews logic would have Changed

 

[Dekes For Days]

We know this from Austons last negotiation. It was clearly known that pre pandemic the cap was supposed to jump. I think this year? But after seattle and the new tv deals. Auston wanted a higher hit on a longer deal to cover the cap jumps.

This is why point. Tkachuk etc all took bridge deals. There were a number of short term deals specifically for this reason.

I don’t see why matthews logic would have Changed

Post-ELC contracts are different than UFA contracts. For a post-ELC contract, longer term equals higher cost. For a UFA contract, longer term equals lower cost. That has to do with the ages you're buying them for, not "to cover the cap jumps".

I don't know about Tkachuk, but Point signed a bridge deal because Tampa didn't have any money to do anything else. Matthews was reportedly open to 8 years, but took the term that would better help the Leafs fit everybody in and build around him. I don't see why Matthews' logic would have changed.

 

[SprDaVE]

I just want some trades and some action to happen. Been really boring.

 

[Rude Dog]

No, that's not how the Salary Cap works. If they sent him down, they would get $ 1 million in cap relief, and the rest of the cap stays on the books.

Thank-you. Certainly doesn't make me feel any better.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Top player, prospect, 1st for Tkachuk?

I’d easily do Nylander + Sandin + 1st for him re-signed to about $9mil per year.

Dump Kerfoot/Holl

 

[Fogelhund]

I just want some trades and some action to happen. Been really boring.

Common trades.

Top player, prospect, 1st for Tkachuk?

I’d easily do Nylander + Sandin + 1st for him re-signed to about $9mil per year.

Dump Kerfoot/Holl

Except he wants $11 mil +, and doesn't want to be in Canada... other than that, sure.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Top player, prospect, 1st for Tkachuk?

I’d easily do Nylander + Sandin + 1st for him re-signed to about $9mil per year.

Dump Kerfoot/Holl

The answer isn't to tie up even more cap into our top 4 forwards. Forget about re-signing Tkachuk, because everything we know so far makes it seem like he wouldn't want to stick around long term; Adding him to our roster only magnifies the imbalance on the roster further.

 

[Magic Man]

Common trades.



Except he wants $11 mil +, and doesn't want to be in Canada... other than that, sure.

To be fair, Gaudreau had a better year than Tkachuk and he had no restrictions and he only got 9.75M. We'll see if he bends on the amount of money he wants to be in the location he wants.

 

[Legion34]

Post-ELC contracts are different than UFA contracts. For a post-ELC contract, longer term equals higher cost. For a UFA contract, longer term equals lower cost. That has to do with the ages you're buying them for, not "to cover the cap jumps".

I don't know about Tkachuk, but Point signed a bridge deal because Tampa didn't have any money to do anything else. Matthews was reportedly open to 8 years, but took the term that would better help the Leafs fit everybody in and build around him. I don't see why Matthews' logic would have changed.

Multiple agents and insiders all reported that post Vegas success and the word of the new us tv deals players wanted to sign short term to cash in.

That’s why every major RFA player signed short term that summer. So that they could cash in at 25-27 with the new cap.

This was widely reported and known. Specifically in the case of Auston Matthews. Friedman Johnston mckenzie all reported this is why he wanted they settled on 5 years. They were charging tons for the last 3 specifically because he was earning money. The leafs didn’t want to do it so he took 5 years

He wanted to time the cap jump.

If you bought his 8 years yes you are now buying 8. But more importantly you are buying 95 million cap years. Of course the pandemic changed that.

But now we are in the exact same scenario again.

If you don’t want to believe the specific reporting Then that’s totally up to you

 

[ACC1224]

Top player, prospect, 1st for Tkachuk?

I’d easily do Nylander + Sandin + 1st for him re-signed to about $9mil per year.

Dump Kerfoot/Holl

Me as well. I'm sure most would.
I'm not overly confident that will happen unless Marner/Matthews have some influence.

 

[Morgs]

Kyrou said he thinks he's a Flame in the next week.

 

[Amadeus]

Would be Ottawa be interested in a Sandin for Brannstrom swap?

 

[Apex Predator]

Would be Ottawa be interested in a Sandin for Brannstrom swap?

I’m not interested in that. If leafs do end up trading Sandin it should be in a package for a top 6 forward to plAy with Tavares and Nylander or a young center who has potential to be a second line center.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Would be Ottawa be interested in a Sandin for Brannstrom swap?

why would we want a worse player?

 

[Voodoo Child]

Kyrou said he thinks he's a Flame in the next week.

I hope he’s clean.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Nylander, Holl, Robertson & 1st <-> Matthew Tkachuk (8 x 9.19)

Jake Muzzin & 2nd (24) <-> Scott Mayfield & Ross Johnston

Alex Kerfoot <-> Picks

Sign Sonny Milano 2 x 2.25

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Milano - - Tavares - - Tkachuk
Engvall - - Kampf - - Jarnkrok
Johnston - Gaudette - Kubel

Rielly - - - Brodie
Sandin - Mayfield
Giordano - Liljigren

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Would be Ottawa be interested in a Sandin for Brannstrom swap?

Sandin has outperformed Brannstrom at every level at a younger age.

 

[1specter]

Kyrou said he thinks he's a Flame in the next week.

wut?

 

[dubplatepressure]

Still having a hard time coming to grips with the Murray trade. If things don't work out, can the Leafs simply send him down to the AHL, pay his salary but get full credit for his cap hit to find someone else at the deadline? If that's the case, I will feel a whole lot better about this.

I don't think anyone really loves it. But the way I look at it, I'd much rather have Murray + Samsonov at $6M than Campbell at 5x5 plus Mrazek at 3.4. So to me, that's at least a positive, albeit how much so really remains to be seen. Surely they cannot be as bad as Campbell and Mrazek were for a stretch of ~3 months last season.

 

[Morgs]

wut?

I know someone he specifically told "I think I'm going to be a Flame in the next week". Who knows, but he must know something if he's saying that.