GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[mapleleafs34]

The Cap situation isn't too tight next year tbh. No jumps in caphit from this year on any of the current contracts,

the prospects should be filling the ranks next year or else they never will - Robertson and Knies in prominent roles and the likes of Abbruzese Steeves Holmberg Anderson in support roles.

And there will still be a solid layer of prospects behind them that we won't need to depend on yet - Amirov, Hirvonen, Niemela, Villeneuve, Kokkonen, Hildeby, etc.

Kampf shouldn't be in line for much of a raise so we can decide whether we want to keep him or not.

All of Bunting, Engvall, Samsonov may be in line for significant raises and we could likely afford to give at least 2 of them the raises they would deserve.

Bunting & Samsonov most likely. I think Engvall walks to UFA next year to cash out like Mik did.

 

[zeke]

Bunting & Samsonov most likely. I think Engvall walks to UFA next year to cash out like Mik did.

Not sure Engvall is going to get himself quite into Mikheyev's range - Mikky is a visually more exciting player that got himself up into the 30gl/50pt pace range this past year. Engvall has a more subtle game and i'd be surprised (pleasantly surprised) if he was able to get to significantly more than a 20/40 type pace this year.

If he is able to show more offense this year, though (particularly some effectiveness on the PP), then i'd be leaning towards giving him like a 5x$4m deal or something.

And Bunting i'd certainly be happy with giving that kind of deal to.

Samsonov is the one i'm most skeptical on. Especially if Hildeby has a big year this year.

 

[Jozay]

Its probably more likely Samsonov sucks tbh

 

[ULF_55]

I’d say Bunting provides more value per dollar.


I personally don’t think goals are the be all end all of player evaluation.

Correct.

Semenko wasn't on Gretzky's wing to score goals.

 

[Fogelhund]

And Bunting i'd certainly be happy with giving that kind of deal to.

Contracts signed this offseason, for players at approx 60 points

Hertl --> $8.1 mil
Rust --> $5.125 mil
Burakovsky --> $5.5 mil

Bunting puts up 60 points again, and he's asking for more than $5 mil. That's not a deal that makes sense IMO, unless none of your prospects work out.

 

[WTFMAN99]

The Cap situation isn't too tight next year tbh. No jumps in caphit from this year on any of the current contracts,

the prospects should be filling the ranks next year or else they never will - Robertson and Knies in prominent roles and the likes of Abbruzese Steeves Holmberg Anderson in support roles.

And there will still be a solid layer of prospects behind them that we won't need to depend on yet - Amirov, Hirvonen, Niemela, Villeneuve, Kokkonen, Hildeby, etc.

Kampf shouldn't be in line for much of a raise so we can decide whether we want to keep him or not.

All of Bunting, Engvall, Samsonov may be in line for significant raises and we could likely afford to give at least 2 of them the raises they would deserve.

Jarnkrork just got 2.1M x4....are we looking at 2.25-2.5M x4 for Kampf? I'd be okay with it.

I think at that point Hirvonen and Holmberg are fighting for a bottom 6 spot. I'd be surprised if Knies and Robertson aren't on the roster.

Amirov is an absolute wild card. Kinda wish we had Schneider coming with that "next wave" of guys for after JT's contract is done.

 

[Ryan52]

Dubas announce the Kerfoot trade today or else
View attachment 571613

the problem is the market for him is shot. hes realistically worth a 2nd or 3rd but everyone is spending their money already, neiderriter just only got 2/8, and guys like grimaldi/aston reece/milano are out there you can get cheaper without giving up a pick. even at his cap space hes worth more to this roster than a 5th would be, but signing jarnkrok probably closed the door on kerfoot fitting in

 

[Fogelhund]

Amirov is an absolute wild card. Kinda wish we had Schneider coming with that "next wave" of guys for after JT's contract is done.

A Schneider type player would be great to add... but, there is no world where we'd be breaking in Sandin, Liljegren and Schneider at the same time, as relatively young D.

 

[Ryan52]

Bunting is the high end depth piece we should extend. I didn't care about keeping any of Hyman, Mikheyev, Kappy, Johnsson, etc. But losing Bunting would hurt.

signing him now could end up being a zaitsev situation, but on the flipside it could become the best value contract in the nhl. its really risky but only way to lock him up right now might be something like 5 years 5 per i would guess? tough to say

 

[WTFMAN99]

A Schneider type player would be great to add... but, there is no world where we'd be breaking in Sandin, Liljegren and Schneider at the same time, as relatively young D.

I guess we're wanting to see growth into 2nd pair type guys this season with (ideally both) Sandin and Liljegren?

I think 1 year glued to Giordano is gonna go a long way for Liljegren.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Has Tkachuk signed here yet?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

the problem is the market for him is shot. hes realistically worth a 2nd or 3rd but everyone is spending their money already, neiderriter just only got 2/8, and guys like grimaldi/aston reece/milano are out there you can get cheaper without giving up a pick. even at his cap space hes worth more to this roster than a 5th would be, but signing jarnkrok probably closed the door on kerfoot fitting in

Agreed. It's hard to believe someone will want to pay a 2nd for Kerfoot when they can just sign someone for free. We're probably going to have to move him for a fairly poor return.

 

[Fogelhund]

Has Tkachuk signed here yet?

I heard a rumour from this site, that he's very close to becoming a Leaf... check it out --> https://nevergoingtohappen.ca

 

[TorMapleJays]

I heard a rumour from this site, that he's very close to becoming a Leaf... check it out --> https://nevergoingtohappen.ca

E-5

 

[ER89]

There's a difference between having immense talent and putting up points like Nylander does and allowing your team to have sustained o-zone time like Niederreiter does. If you want to ignore the numbers then that's your prerogative.


That depends what model you use. GSVA values Marner over Bunting. GSVA also has Marner/Matthews at higher value per dollar than Nylander as we were originally discussing.

Yes and that's where the model is flawed. Unlike baseball the statistical models for hockey have a lot more noise considering the infinite amount of outcomes.

And you could have sustained o zone pressure like nino i haven't checked the numbers, but who gives a shit if that amounts to nothing? Are guys playing with nino scoring 80-90 pts? No.

They are not. It isn't about prerogative. This is doing a lot of mental gymnastics to paint something that just quite isn't true.

 

[LeafSteel]

I think that's premature. Love what he's done, but our prospect system is very heavily skewed towards LW. I think it's prudent to wait and see what happens this year, with the development of our LW.

1. Is Amirov healthy, does he play, and does he show enough to warrant coming to NA next year?
2. Does Knies adjust to the NHL, after his NCAA season?
3. What does Robertson show this year?
4. How does Holmberg play?
5. Then there are guys like Abruzzese and Voit potentially at LW too.

When you have four talented (potential) LW in the system, committing much in cap, or term, to a non-core player, might not be the best idea. This is a position that we **might** have very cheap replacement options, but we really need this season to play out, for us to know the answers to that one.

Great post.

I think Dubas is not making any effort to source a LW for the 2nd line. It really feels like he does not want to commit to anyone currently outside the organization to fill that role.

It feels like it will be an extended opportunity for us to see exactly what we have in Robertson, and for someone internally to come and take it, until Knies comes aboard and we get a look at what he looks like on it.

Interesting times.

 

[ULF_55]

Great post.

I think Dubas is not making any effort to source a LW for the 2nd line. It really feels like he does not want to commit to anyone currently outside the organization to fill that role.

It feels like it will be an extended opportunity for us to see exactly what we have in Robertson, and for someone internally to come and take it, until Knies comes aboard and we get a look at what he looks like on it.

Interesting times.

There are quite a few who keep saying, let's see what's in the system.

If you fill every role with UFA's why bother having a farm team?

I'm sure Leafs could share a farm team with Ottawa or the Jets.

 

[ER89]

The Cap situation isn't too tight next year tbh. No jumps in caphit from this year on any of the current contracts,

the prospects should be filling the ranks next year or else they never will - Robertson and Knies in prominent roles and the likes of Abbruzese Steeves Holmberg Anderson in support roles.

And there will still be a solid layer of prospects behind them that we won't need to depend on yet - Amirov, Hirvonen, Niemela, Villeneuve, Kokkonen, Hildeby, etc.

Kampf shouldn't be in line for much of a raise so we can decide whether we want to keep him or not.

All of Bunting, Engvall, Samsonov may be in line for significant raises and we could likely afford to give at least 2 of them the raises they would deserve.

I think kampf would take a cheap deal for 3-4 years to get some stability.

 

[zeke]

Jarnkrork just got 2.1M x4....are we looking at 2.25-2.5M x4 for Kampf? I'd be okay with it.

Kampf doesn't have Jarnkrok's offensive numbers...i would see Jarnkrok's caphit more as a ceiling for Kampf not a floor.

I think at that point Hirvonen and Holmberg are fighting for a bottom 6 spot. I'd be surprised if Knies and Robertson aren't on the roster.

Amirov is an absolute wild card. Kinda wish we had Schneider coming with that "next wave" of guys for after JT's contract is done.

Hirvonen no need to rush. Holmberg at 3yrs older should be ready to go, hopefully this year.

Amirov is definitely delayed now but hopefully if he beats the C then he can get back on track but a year or two behind schedule.


If we look at just ages of our controlled players NEXT year:


Knies 21 --- Matthews 26 --- Marner 26
Robertson 22 --- Tavares 33 --- Nylander 27
Steeves 24 --- Jarnkrok 32 --- Holmberg 24
Douglas 23 --- Abruzzese 24 --- Anderson 25

Muzzin 34 --- Brodie 33
Giordano 40 --- Rielly 29
Sandin 23 --- Liljegren 24

Murray 29
Samsonov 26

and i think we'd have somewhere in the vicinity of $10-15m in capsapce to add to that roster, with these guys in the minors:

Amirov 22 --- Hirvonen 21 --- Ovchinnikov 21
Voit 20 --- Minten 19 --- Moldenhauer 19

Kokkonen 22 --- Niemela 21
Villeneuve 21

Hildeby 22
Peksa 21
Akhtyamov 22

 

[WTFMAN99]

Kampf doesn't have Jarnkrok's offensive numbers...i would see Jarnkrok's caphit more as a ceiling for Kampf not a floor.



Hirvonen no need to rush. Holmberg at 3yrs older should be ready to go, hopefully this year.

Amirov is definitely delayed now but hopefully if he beats the C then he can get back on track but a year or two behind schedule.


If we look at just ages of our controlled players NEXT year:


Knies 21 --- Matthews 26 --- Marner 26
Robertson 22 --- Tavares 33 --- Nylander 27
Steeves 24 --- Jarnkrok 32 --- Holmberg 24
Douglas 23 --- Abruzzese 24 --- Anderson 25

Muzzin 34 --- Brodie 33
Giordano 40 --- Rielly 29
Sandin 23 --- Liljegren 24

Murray 29
Samsonov 26

and i think we'd have somewhere in the vicinity of $10-15m in capsapce to add to that roster, with these guys in the minors:

Amirov 22 --- Hirvonen 21 --- Ovchinnikov 21
Voit 20 --- Minten 19 --- Moldenhauer 19

Kokkonen 22 --- Niemela 21
Villeneuve 21

Hildeby 22
Peksa 21
Akhtyamov 22

I kinda wonder if they can accelerate or help Amirov out for last season by getting him on the Marlies this year and feed him 20-24 minutes a night ES/PP, maybe the following year try to get him to PK.

It's not the KHL but we can give way more minutes than they can and give him 1-2 call ups if he's having success as a measuring stick.

Jarnkrok honestly came in lower than I expected, I was projecting 3x3

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not if the cap is supposed to go up by 10-15 million in 3 years.

A 5-year UFA deal would cost more than an 8 year UFA deal, as its always been. A 5 year deal would be age 27-31. Those additional age 32-34 years are entering into decline years, which lowers the price. How the cap is projected to grow is taken into consideration, but signings are primarily based on cap at the time of signing, and there's no way you're going to get Matthews on a 5-year deal for cheaper than an 8-year deal, regardless of what you may think the cap is going to be years from now.

Term is and always has been a trade off of financial and life security vs. maximizing your potential dollars. UFAs consistently choose security. If Matthews wants to take 1 year deals every year to maximize his earnings, that's up to him, but he can't just say pay me long term now as if the cap was 95m because I think it might be in half a decade. Many of the contracts being signed now are ones that will stretch into when the cap is 95m+, but they're still being signed at numbers consistent with the flat cap.

 

[rocketman588]

I kinda wonder if they can accelerate or help Amirov out for last season by getting him on the Marlies this year and feed him 20-24 minutes a night ES/PP, maybe the following year try to get him to PK.

It's not the KHL but we can give way more minutes than they can and give him 1-2 call ups if he's having success as a measuring stick.

Jarnkrok honestly came in lower than I expected, I was projecting 3x3

Doesn't Amirov have a brain tumor?

I don't think he's going to be playing 25 Mins a game of high level hockey

 

[Dekes For Days]

It appears the only opinion you value is your own but here's a recent list of the top 10 defensive C's statistically this year.

No, I value the opinions of others, but I also know not to blindly follow some list that "Andy and Rono" put out, with no consideration for context, other stats, common sense, or the inherent flaws in a stat like GAR, especially when specifically looking at defensive impact in forwards.

You have a small sample of about 750 minutes, for a player who primarily played in a depth role against depth opposition, and you're out here calling him a top 10 defensive center in the league. It doesn't work like that.

It's improper use like this that gives statistics and analytics a bad name.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Doesn't Amirov have a brain tumor?

I don't think he's going to be playing 25 Mins a game of high level hockey

*If he can play hockey this year

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think it means that Edmonton would be willing to trade McDavid for Bunting, given they are allegedly equal players.

Isn't McDavid training in Toronto? Just swap 'em out and Edmonton probably doesn't even notice.