GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Tufted Titmouse]

nor should he.

People trying to trade william when he produces when it matters - and if he was a UFA right now he'd get 8.5 easy.

I think he would get even more, tbh.

 

[Fogelhund]

LEAFS - COYOTES
Rasmus Sandin, Nick Robertson, Alex Kerfoot & 1st
for
Jacob Chychrun & Lawson Crouse (7 x 3.5)

LEAFS - ANY
Jake Muzzin
for
Picks/Prospects

CROUSE - MATTHEWS - MARNER
BUNTING - TAVARES - NYLANDER
JARNKROK - KAMPF - ENGVALL
ZAR* - - - DOUGLAS - - - KUBEL*
KNIES* (END OF SEASON)

RIELLY - - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - HOLL
GIO - - LILJEGREN

MURRAY & SAMSONOV

We don't have the cap for this, unless significant cap withheld.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Explain to me how it is ridiculous?

Because Nylander is a far superior player to both. It's entirely based on hope for Tomasino for something he hasn't shown, and a vast overrating of the accuracy, reliability, and repeatability of the defensive war of forwards.

Replacement level player is being used here because the Leafs will need to dress one of Steeves/Anderson/Holmberg/Malgin as currently constructed. Even worse they might dress below replacement players like Simmonds/Clifford.

You have no idea who will take the spot, and you have no idea how they will produce. Cheap does not mean replacement level. Bunting is cheap. He is not replacement level.

 

[Fogelhund]

Tomasino is legitimately a top 10 defensive C in the league. He also produced similarly to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. You can project him to significantly increase his point totals while already being elite defensively. Fabbro is better than Holl while also being 6 years younger and he has team control after his current deal expires. Nino could have been the cherry on top. He is a far better player than his goals/points suggest.

AHL - Nylander D+2 45 points in 38 games. Tomasino 32 points in 29 games

He's not wrong on this claim.

I think you have an interesting idea here, and I do think some increased depth wouldn't be the worst idea.. however, Nashville thinks like you, and decided having Tomasino and Nino was the better move for them.

I would have asked for Tomasino and Askarov, straight up for Nylander. Dealt Holl separately.

 

[Americanadian]

Because Nylander is a far superior player to both. It's entirely based on hope for Tomasino for something he hasn't shown, and a vast overrating of the accuracy, reliability, and repeatability of the defensive war of forwards.

You have no idea who will take the spot, and you have no idea how they will produce. Cheap does not mean replacement level. Bunting is cheap. He is not replacement level.

Tomasino has already shown he is a top 10 defensive C in the league. He has potential to be a scorer on top of that but even if he plateaus at 21 (unlikely) he is still incredibly good. He was more valuable than Nylander in WAR/60 (EvolvingHockey) last year which was his rookie year and Nylander's career year. I don't understand why you're underrating Tomasino.

Bunting was also signed after putting up 10 goals in 20 games in the NHL the season prior. It was a safe bet. The Leafs currently have 0 safe bets under 1M. Anyone can surprise though - similar to trading Nylander, it's a gamble.

AHL - Nylander D+2 45 points in 38 games. Tomasino 32 points in 29 games

He's not wrong on this claim.

I think you have an interesting idea here, and I do think some increased depth wouldn't be the worst idea.. however, Nashville thinks like you, and decided having Tomasino and Nino was the better move for them.

I would have asked for Tomasino and Askarov, straight up for Nylander. Dealt Holl separately.

It's irrelevant now unfortunately with Nashville signing Nino. It would have been a perfect move for Dubas. Askarov is a perfectly reasonable replacement for Fabbro in this deal. I would prefer Fabbro because he would be a perfect fit next to Muzzin. The Leafs could have ran Rielly-Brodie, Muzzin-Fabbro, Gio-Lily instead of dealing Holl and having 1 RHD on the roster.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Has anyone here seen much of Trenin from the predators. From my limited viewings he seems like a good physical player with offensive upside.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

We don't have the cap for this, unless significant cap withheld.

Muzzin makes more than Chychrun
Crouse takes Kerfoots money

Has anyone here seen much of Trenin from the predators. From my limited viewings he seems like a good physical player with offensive upside.

Really like him, wonder what the hold up is...

 

[Americanadian]

Has anyone here seen much of Trenin from the predators. From my limited viewings he seems like a good physical player with offensive upside.

Never watched him a day in my life but his numbers look enticing.

 

[zeke]

I know this is unrelated to the Leafs but this is a prime example of insider's doing anything to create a story:



The pens are 480k over the cap with a 23 man roster. They need to send down 1 player, any player they want, to get under the cap. They could send Zucker to the minors if they don't want him on the team and they would be cap compliant.

If Pittsburgh buys anyone out I will eat crow here but I just don't see it.


Explain to me how it is ridiculous? I think I have made it clear on these boards I am a numbers guy. I have watched every single Leafs game from 2015 on but I also trust in GAR/WAR/GSVA. Tomasino+Niederreiter score higher than Nylander in whatever metric you want to use. Replacement level player is being used here because the Leafs will need to dress one of Steeves/Anderson/Holmberg/Malgin as currently constructed. Even worse they might dress below replacement players like Simmonds/Clifford.

This is kind of CapFriendly's fault tbh. Media just click on their front page and see the Cap numbers and go with it.

They should really have a "realistic current roster caphit" option where they take the caphits of guys we know will be on LTIR off the list, and cut a couple salaries at the bottom to make a 21/22 man roster, and then give a "realistic capspace" number.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think that’s fine considering that you can expect Robertson and Knies to make the jump. This two can provide ELC value and Engvall’s $2 million can be re-allocated elsewhere in the line up

And a replacement can be signed for cheaper.

Ya thats fair, im sure they will figure out good replacements. I just like Engvall as a bottom 6 player and wanted to see him on the team for a few more years. If he doesn't do as well offensively this year maybe they can bring him back.

 

[Canada4Gold]

delete: Rakell not Zucker, I'm an idiot

 

[Americanadian]

This is kind of CapFriendly's fault tbh. Media just click on their front page and see the Cap numbers and go with it.

They should really have a "realistic current roster caphit" option where they take the caphits of guys we know will be on LTIR off the list, and cut a couple salaries at the bottom to make a 21/22 man roster, and then give a "realistic capspace" number.

I agree. There's been so much talk about the Leafs being over the cap since the Jarnkrok signing and it drives me insane. You'd think the professionals who are paid to talk about it would be smart enough to look at the roster page.

 

[rocketman588]

This is kind of CapFriendly's fault tbh. Media just click on their front page and see the Cap numbers and go with it.

They should really have a "realistic current roster caphit" option where they take the caphits of guys we know will be on LTIR off the list, and cut a couple salaries at the bottom to make a 21/22 man roster, and then give a "realistic capspace" number.

You kinda can with the roster builder I guess but obviously takes a bit more effort

 

[MAB1]

Tomasino is legitimately a top 10 defensive C in the league. He also produced similarly to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. You can project him to significantly increase his point totals while already being elite defensively. Fabbro is better than Holl while also being 6 years younger and he has team control after his current deal expires. Nino could have been the cherry on top. He is a far better player than his goals/points suggest.


1. I disagree that Nylander is their best value contract. Matthews is.

2. Just because he provides good value on his contract doesn't mean he has the best value per dollar possible. The contract that Nino just signed is far better value than Nylander. Tomasino provides significantly higher value per dollar than Nylander over the next 2 years.

2022-23

Matthews = 106 points, $11,640,250 AAV = $109,814 per point Matthews gets
Nylander = 80 points, $6,900,000 AAV = $86,250 per point Nylander gets

Tavares and Marner too for comparison

Tavares = 76 points, $11,000,000 AAV = $144,737 per point Tavares gets
Marner = 97 points, $10,903,000 AAV = $112, 402 per point Marner gets

Matthews is by far the better player and his contract reflects it. Nylander is worth more than the contract he first signed as an RFA, which is why he's the best value contract on the Leafs. Tavares is the least efficient producer of the big contracts as shown in this and the worst value contract.

You wanna add Nino? Get rid of Holl or Muzzin or Kerfoot, not the best contract on the team.

 

[zeke]

You kinda can with the roster builder I guess but obviously takes a bit more effort

Yes you can but the media puts as little effort as possible into their hottakes.

 

[Knies iT]

Missed opportunity with Nino. Even fits the term Dubas demanded. Would have required the right moves being made though, which is not a common theme this off-season.

 

[MAB1]

Best contract should yield a great return, no?

Sure, if the Leafs are rebuilding. Did Dubas come out with that release?

Mackinnon is on a great contract, should the Avs have traded him a couple years ago because they couldn't advance past the 2nd round?

The Bruins signed Seguin to a great contract post RFA and then traded him to the Stars, do you think that trade was smart on the Bruins end? Suffice to say the Bruins probably have at least 1 more cup if they never made that trade.

Marner is not overpaid for his contract and would similarly yield a great return and free up more cap space.

 

[Americanadian]

2022-23

Matthews = 106 points, $11,640,250 AAV = $109,814 per point Matthews gets
Nylander = 80 points, $6,900,000 AAV = $86,250 per point Nylander gets

Tavares and Marner too for comparison

Tavares = 76 points, $11,000,000 AAV = $144,737 per point Tavares gets
Marner = 97 points, $10,903,000 AAV = $112, 402 per point Marner gets

Matthews is by far the better player and his contract reflects it. Nylander is worth more than the contract he first signed as an RFA, which is why he's the best value contract on the Leafs. Tavares is the least efficient producer of the big contracts as shown in this and the worst value contract.

You wanna add Nino? Get rid of Holl or Muzzin or Kerfoot, not the best contract on the team.

If points were the only thing that mattered in hockey I would agree with you. Matthews was a top 5 defensive center in the NHL last year though. He literally won the Hart.

 

[MAB1]

If points were the only thing that mattered in hockey I would agree with you. Matthews was a top 5 defensive center in the NHL last year though. He literally won the Hart.

Which is why I literally said he's a much better player than Nylander...not that Nylander is a defensive liability.

Being a much better player doesn't mean he's got the better contract too.

If Tavares had a $2 million AAV, he would have the best contract on the team, that doesn't mean he's the best player.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Missed opportunity with Nino. Even fits the term Dubas demanded. Would have required the right moves being made though, which is not a common theme this off-season.

What "right moves" are not being made? Trading Kerfoot?

Even if we did that, we can't afford a 4 mill Niederreiter, and given the likely cheaper alternatives out there, I am not sure I would have even if we could.

 

[ACC1224]

Sure, if the Leafs are rebuilding. Did Dubas come out with that release?

Mackinnon is on a great contract, should the Avs have traded him a couple years ago because they couldn't advance past the 2nd round?

The Bruins signed Seguin to a great contract post RFA and then traded him to the Stars, do you think that trade was smart on the Bruins end? Suffice to say the Bruins probably have at least 1 more cup if they never made that trade.

Mackinnon is their best player and top 5 in the world, hardly comparable to Nylander. They did trade Duchene, probably a better comparison.
Bruins should have made a better trade with Seguin. Some random team not making a good deal shouldn't be the reason for any team not to make a move.

I really don't care what other teams do, just the Leafs. If moving Nylander helps them finally advance in the playoffs then it should be explored.

 

[Knies iT]

What "right moves" are not being made? Trading Kerfoot?

Even if we did that, we can't afford a 4 mill Niederreiter, and given the likely cheaper alternatives out there, I am not sure I would have even if we could.

Losing a trade to a divisional rival taking on Murray with full leverage, committing to Jarnkrok until 35, more assets lost from a bad contract, hardly improving a single thing about the group.

 

[Fogelhund]

Kessel is now the third highest scoring player left available as a UFA, behind Kadri and Bergeron.

We move Kerfoot and Holl for futures, sign Sandin at 2/3 years at $2 million, we have $2.8 mil left.

I try and sign Evan Rodrigues, 2 years x $1.1 mil.. he's got speed, he can play C, put up 43 points for Pittsburgh last year, and 5 in 7 games in the playoffs, and hasn't been signed yet. He's from Toronto.

I would try and sign Paul Stastny to a 1 year x $1.7 million deal. He's a good C, could help the third line. It's incredibly cheap for him, but you can always make the offer, given the market is drying up.

Both Rodrigues and Stastny can PK, Stastny is good in the dot. It gives you plenty of depth, in particular a bunch of guys who can play C in case of injuries.

If you can't get Stastny to sign for that amount, you could always try Kessel on a one year deal... but there are UFA options still.

 

[Americanadian]

Which is why I literally said he's a much better player than Nylander...not that Nylander is a defensive liability.

Being a much better player doesn't mean he's got the better contract too.

If Tavares had a $2 million AAV, he would have the best contract on the team, that doesn't mean he's the best player.

I'm saying that Matthews overall value per dollar is higher than Nylander's overall value per dollar. If you use EvolvingHockey's GAR Nylander actually has the 10th best value contract on the Leafs based on last season. 11th if Sandin signs. This includes 0 ELC's.

Player	GAR	Salary	GAR/$*1000000
Michael Bunting	25.6	950000	26.9
Mark Giordano	9.3	800000	11.6
Timothy Liljegren	13.7	1400000	9.8
David Kampf	6.6	1500000	4.4
Alex Kerfoot	15	3500000	4.3
Justin Holl	7.5	2000000	3.8
Auston Matthews	31.8	11640250	2.7
Morgan Rielly	16	7500000	2.1
Mitch Marner	22	10903000	2.0
William Nylander	12.4	6962366	1.8
Tj Brodie	7.8	5000000	1.6
Pierre Engvall	2.8	2250000	1.2
John Tavares	12.2	11000000	1.1
Calle Jarnkrok	2.3	2100000	1.1
Nicolas Aube-Kubel	1	1000000	1.0
Jake Muzzin	0.7	5625000	0.1

 

[Canada4Gold]

Losing a trade to a divisional rival taking on Murray with full leverage, committing to Jarnkrok until 35, more assets lost from a bad contract, hardly improving a single thing about the group.

So what was your plan for goalie? I hope it's not allocate Murray's money to Nino and run Samsonov and Kallgren. It's fine to criticize Dubas choice of goalie, but they're obviously going to allocate some money towards goalie so I don't see how that relates to Nino at all.