GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[ULF_55]

If points were the only thing that mattered in hockey I would agree with you. Matthews was a top 5 defensive center in the NHL last year though. He literally won the Hart.

He should be in the running every year.

So 3 cheers, but shouldn't lower expectations.

 

[MAB1]

I'm saying that Matthews overall value per dollar is higher than Nylander's overall value per dollar. If you use EvolvingHockey's GAR Nylander actually has the 10th best value contract on the Leafs based on last season. 11th if Sandin signs. This includes 0 ELC's.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]GAR[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]GAR/$*1000000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Bunting[/TD]
[TD]25.6[/TD]
[TD]950000[/TD]
[TD]26.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]800000[/TD]
[TD]11.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timothy Liljegren[/TD]
[TD]13.7[/TD]
[TD]1400000[/TD]
[TD]9.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Kampf[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]1500000[/TD]
[TD]4.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]3500000[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]
[TD]7.5[/TD]
[TD]2000000[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]31.8[/TD]
[TD]11640250[/TD]
[TD]2.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]7500000[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch Marner[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]10903000[/TD]
[TD]2.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]12.4[/TD]
[TD]6962366[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tj Brodie[/TD]
[TD]7.8[/TD]
[TD]5000000[/TD]
[TD]1.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Engvall[/TD]
[TD]2.8[/TD]
[TD]2250000[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]
[TD]12.2[/TD]
[TD]11000000[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Calle Jarnkrok[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[TD]2100000[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nicolas Aube-Kubel[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1000000[/TD]
[TD]1.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[TD]5625000[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You do realize you're arguing about 0.9 right? The gap between Matthews and Holl is bigger than Matthews-Nylander using that. GAR isn't the be all, end all either. When I said most valuable contract on the Leafs, I meant in regards to the star players.

 

[ULF_55]

I really don't care what other teams do, just the Leafs. If moving Nylander helps them finally advance in the playoffs then it should be explored.

Exactly!

Move any player if it results in a better team that can win the Cup.

Of course, there are player fans and team fans and they aren't always the same thing.

 

[Americanadian]

You do realize you're arguing about 0.9 right? The gap between Matthews and Holl is bigger than Matthews-Nylander using that. GAR isn't the be all, end all either. When I said most valuable contract on the Leafs, I meant in regards to the star players.

0.9 is 50% more value than Nylander. I'm not claiming GAR is the be all end all. I am claiming that Matthews provides more value per dollar than Nylander and GAR supports that point. Find a metric that supports Nylander's contract being more valuable than Matthews that isn't points.

 

[rocketman588]

Yes you can but the media puts as little effort as possible into their hottakes.

This is true for sure

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Losing a trade to a divisional rival taking on Murray with full leverage, committing to Jarnkrok until 35, more assets lost from a bad contract, hardly improving a single thing about the group.

How do you know we lost that trade? Murray has not even played yet. You are assuming we could have got more in the trade (I am guessing based on an incomplete Dreger rumour), but what do you know that suggests we could have received more? If Ottawa decides to keep Murray instead of giving up more, assuming we did get the most we could have got, what would you have done instead to fill our hole in net? I am not exactly seeing more attractive alternatives that we could have made.

We got Jarnkrok for a lot less money than he was worth. Maybe 4 years is a year or two longer than preferred, but he also easily gets north of 3 mill on that term. It is not a difficult contract to move later on and he is the kind of guy who is still going to be productive into his mid-30's short of unprecedented injuries like Mrazek. He gives us a legitimate bottom 6 center to pair with Kampf next year, and with whomever else going forward. Compared to most of the other contracts given out this offseason, Jarnkrok was a steal.

The Mrazek signing went about as poorly as it could have. A guy who had a very good injury record and a steady track record of success suddenly has a bum groin and can't get into any kind of rhythm. That is about as unlucky as you can get with that signing, and if he can stay healthy with Chicago, he will probably return to form. It still didn't cost us nearly as much as most people thought to dump him, and it took that much bad luck for Dubas to have his first pure cap dump signing of his now 5th offseason.

Our 4th line is significantly better. I think our goaltending will be better, but it is also hard for it to be much worse. Other than Mikheyev to NAK on the shutdown line, I am not really seeing where we got "worse"... Which compared to the likes of Tampa, Colorado, Florida, etc. is hardly anything.

 

[Knies iT]

How do you know we lost that trade? Murray has not even played yet. You are assuming we could have got more in the trade (I am guessing based on an incomplete Dreger rumour), but what do you know that suggests we could have received more? If Ottawa decides to keep Murray instead of giving up more, assuming we did get the most we could have got, what would you have done instead to fill our hole in net? I am not exactly seeing more attractive alternatives that we could have made.

I am not really seeing where we got "worse"...

You can say that for literally every trade. None of us have a clue about anything, but based on his history in trades i'll lean towards getting rinsed again. Only team interested, enabling a divisional rival to dump cap, acquiring a player that was on waivers for a 3rd. But ignore the rumours and just believe he got perfectly suitable value. Not going to derail this thread but finding 4m to fill a need on forward was completely doable coming into this off-season.

Where did we get better?

 

[Stephen]

Meh, I don't buy that, 2/3 best defensemen D-men in the league (Fox, Makar) are smaller than Rielly. And considering that the game is headed more and more towards speed/skating, that bodes well for Rielly too. The best players of a generation typically dictate the way the game is played during their era (You saw it with McDavid that the league trended more towards speed, skating).

Nurse, and Jones might play in all situations but that's why their teams are no good. Just because a team puts a d-man on the pk doesn't mean they belong there. Werenski is no better than Rielly. I have both as a top 10-20 D-man in the league.

I’m not a huge Fox fan but you can’t really say Rielly and Makar in the same sentence when it comes to salary comparisons.

 

[CatchyTune]

We will see if Bunting can recreate his first-year performance, but I thought his chemistry with Matthew / Marners was exceptional. I wouldn't be so quick to drop him to the third line.

Bunting belongs with Matthews and Marner. Nearly wins the RoY, puts up 63 points, but somehow he's a bottom 6 pest at best? Strange.

No I like his thinking. Drop him down a few lines, decrease point production in a contract year, sign him long term and put him back on line 1

 

[The Podium]

You can say that for literally every trade. None of us have a clue about anything, but based on his history in trades i'll lean towards getting rinsed again. Only team interested, enabling a divisional rival to dump cap, acquiring a player that was on waivers for a 3rd. But ignore the rumours and just believe he got perfectly suitable value. Not going to derail this thread but finding 4m to fill a need on forward was completely doable coming into this off-season.

Where did we get better?

The point of running it back isn’t too improve. This was the 4th overall team in the league last year, there is only marginal room for improvement.

Not to mention there is a very real possibility of an improvement, possibly a sizable one, in net.

 

[Stephen]

Nashville seems like a team that would be very interested in Justin Holl if the Leafs are still putting his name out there. They acquired McDonagh, they seem to be missing a mid-pairing RHD between Fabbro and Carrier. Sounds like they want to compete so it would make sense.

To me, it kind of feels like there’s less and less of a point in making a salary dump trade as time goes on because the ability to remake a part of the roster diminishes with each UFA signing.

Yeah, we should have room to re-sign Sandin. But if you can’t find a place for him to play, what’s the point in carving out cap space to fit him? The timetable at which everything has happened this summer has been sloppy.

 

[ER89]

Tomasino is legitimately a top 10 defensive C in the league. He also produced similarly to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. You can project him to significantly increase his point totals while already being elite defensively. Fabbro is better than Holl while also being 6 years younger and he has team control after his current deal expires. Nino could have been the cherry on top. He is a far better player than his goals/points suggest.


1. I disagree that Nylander is their best value contract. Matthews is.

2. Just because he provides good value on his contract doesn't mean he has the best value per dollar possible. The contract that Nino just signed is far better value than Nylander. Tomasino provides significantly higher value per dollar than Nylander over the next 2 years.

Huh? Nino's contract is not better than William. It's not close

 

[Stephen]

The point of running it back isn’t too improve. This was the 4th overall team in the league last year, there is only marginal room for improvement.

Not to mention there is a very real possibility of an improvement, possibly a sizable one, in net.

In a flat cap world the Leafs most meaningful improvement might actually be Florida, Tampa and Colorado getting worse at a quicker rate than Toronto, in conjunction with the goalies being a home run. Bettman economics is just depressing.

 

[zeke]

Mackinnon is their best player and top 5 in the world, hardly comparable to Nylander. They did trade Duchene, probably a better comparison.
Bruins should have made a better trade with Seguin. Some random team not making a good deal shouldn't be the reason for any team not to make a move.

I really don't care what other teams do, just the Leafs. If moving Nylander helps them finally advance in the playoffs then it should be explored.

Duchene 4yrs prior to trade:

70pts
55pts
59pts
41pts

 

[Americanadian]

Nashville seems like a team that would be very interested in Justin Holl if the Leafs are still putting his name out there. They acquired McDonagh, they seem to be missing a mid-pairing RHD between Fabbro and Carrier. Sounds like they want to compete so it would make sense.

They did just give a relatively big deal to Lauzon. I imagine he'll be an everyday player for them.

 

[Americanadian]

Huh? Nino's contract is not better than William. It's not close

Why do you think that? Even if you ignore everything besides points - Niederreiter has paced 28g/49p over the last 2 year to Nylander's 32g/76p. Niederreiter provides more goals/points per dollar. Then you look at play driving and it's not close.

Duchene 4yrs prior to trade:

70pts
55pts
59pts
41pts

Imagine getting a Duchene-like return for Nylander. That would be best case scenario for the Leafs - and as you just pointed out: Nylander should hold more value than Duchene did.

 

[X66]

So obviously a trade or two is coming to get us under the cap, but I almost wonder if it's better to hold on to some money and take a bigger swing at a forward near the deadline. I have no problem with this roster during the regular season at the moment:

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Jarnkrok
Anderson-Gaudette-Kubel
Simmonds

Rielly-Lilly
Muzzin-Brodie
Sandin-Gio

OR

Get really wild NHL mode lol

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Milano-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Engvall-Nylander-Robertson
Anderson-Kampf-Kubel
Gaudette

 

[ER89]

Why do you think that? Even if you ignore everything besides points - Niederreiter has paced 28g/49p over the last 2 year to Nylander's 32g/76p. Niederreiter provides more goals/points per dollar. Then you look at play driving and it's not close.


Imagine getting a Duchene-like return for Nylander. That would be best case scenario for the Leafs.

So 27 whole points less? And the difference between their two contracts is one kapanen. Kapanen and Nino vs William. And William drives play Nino cannot drive a line. And when it matters William produces. Incrementally you’re not getting two pieces which will impact the game as much as nylander.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Really wanted Nino But I guess it wasn't gonna happen .

Good deal too but ah well.

 

[Americanadian]

So 27 whole points less? And the difference between their two contracts is one kapanen. Kapanen and Nino vs William. And William drives play Nino cannot drive a line. And when it matters William produces. Incrementally you’re not getting two pieces which will impact the game as much as nylander.

I fundamentally disagree with this statement. No matter what number you look at Nino is a better play driver than Nylander. It's literally not close.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I fundamentally disagree with this statement. No matter what number you look at Nino is a better play driver than Nylander. It's literally not close.

It depends on what kind of drive of game you are looking for. Nino likes to be drive plays by using body, Nylander drives play by more his skill and speed. Two very different players really.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tomasino has already shown he is a top 10 defensive C in the league.

No, he hasn't.

He doesn't even face top players for goodness sake. He's a nice prospect with some potential, but let's pump the brakes on drastically overrating Tomasino like this.

 

[MAB1]

0.9 is 50% more value than Nylander. I'm not claiming GAR is the be all end all. I am claiming that Matthews provides more value per dollar than Nylander and GAR supports that point. Find a metric that supports Nylander's contract being more valuable than Matthews that isn't points.

In a CAP WORLD...Nylander at $6.9 million is the best contract on the forward group and should not be moved. You butting into a conversation about trading Nylander about how Matthews is more valuable...nobody is disputing that but McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon types never get traded so that's pointless to bring up.

2.You bringing up Matthews is irrelevant anyways because he would never be the one to be traded to create cap space

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I'm saying that Matthews overall value per dollar is higher than Nylander's overall value per dollar. If you use EvolvingHockey's GAR Nylander actually has the 10th best value contract on the Leafs based on last season. 11th if Sandin signs. This includes 0 ELC's.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]GAR[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]GAR/$*1000000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michael Bunting[/TD]
[TD]25.6[/TD]
[TD]950000[/TD]
[TD]26.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mark Giordano[/TD]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]800000[/TD]
[TD]11.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timothy Liljegren[/TD]
[TD]13.7[/TD]
[TD]1400000[/TD]
[TD]9.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Kampf[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]1500000[/TD]
[TD]4.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]3500000[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Justin Holl[/TD]
[TD]7.5[/TD]
[TD]2000000[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]31.8[/TD]
[TD]11640250[/TD]
[TD]2.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Morgan Rielly[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]7500000[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch Marner[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]10903000[/TD]
[TD]2.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]12.4[/TD]
[TD]6962366[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tj Brodie[/TD]
[TD]7.8[/TD]
[TD]5000000[/TD]
[TD]1.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pierre Engvall[/TD]
[TD]2.8[/TD]
[TD]2250000[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Tavares[/TD]
[TD]12.2[/TD]
[TD]11000000[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Calle Jarnkrok[/TD]
[TD]2.3[/TD]
[TD]2100000[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nicolas Aube-Kubel[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1000000[/TD]
[TD]1.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jake Muzzin[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[TD]5625000[/TD]
[TD]0.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I don't buy this.

The calculation is not correct. There is 0% chance that Bunting provides a higher raw value than Marner.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You can say that for literally every trade. None of us have a clue about anything, but based on his history in trades i'll lean towards getting rinsed again. Only team interested, enabling a divisional rival to dump cap, acquiring a player that was on waivers for a 3rd. But ignore the rumours and just believe he got perfectly suitable value. Not going to derail this thread but finding 4m to fill a need on forward was completely doable coming into this off-season.

Where did we get better?

What trades suggest we got rinsed? Where is the evidence?

I am not even ignoring the rumours. I am just not introducing my own bias and vitriol on the basis of thinking there was something magically better out there without any real basis. I even thought myself that we could have done better, but when I looked around, there really wasn't much better out there... Especially not for a guy who has legitimate potential to be a starter for a Cup contending team and comes with retention like he did.

Getting Niederreiter on that deal would have been solid, but it is definitely interesting to see that giving a 4 x 2 mill deal to Jarnkrok was not a "right move" but then giving Niederreiter a 2 x 4 mill deal is "the right move". You think that adding a 4 mill guy up front is doable, but it really is not all that easy. The only way to do it is to either move Muzzin or we'd need Sandin to effectively take his tender or move Holl on top of swapping Jarnkrok for a league minimum guy and moving Kerfoot. Alternatively, you can have Jarnkrok, Sandin (on a number higher than his tender), Holl, and approximately 2 mill to sign someone else by only moving Kerfoot. Considering there are a number of suitable alternatives to put at 2LW both internally and externally for far less money than Niederreiter, and that is without considering Knies, I think I take the option which drastically improves our depth.

As for where we get better, I already said our 4th line is significantly better and our goaltending is almost certainly going to be better too. Our 4th line last year was practically Clifford/Blackwell - Spezza - Simmonds and it was borderline unplayable. This year, our bottom 6 will be a mix of Engvall, Jarnkrok, NAK, Kampf, a UFA/prospect (the other will be 2LW), and another prospect. We have a ton of high caliber prospects competing for those two prospect spots, so both lines should be strong enough to play real minutes with the only real loss being Mikheyev (he is also the only real loss from our entire lineup).