GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[zeke]

""

Whats most surprising is that he really doesn't deserve more.

Promising 1st half season in PIT followed up by a really poor full season this year.

 

[stickty111]

 

[zeke]

PPTOI

Engvall 0:34
Kappa 1:36

 

[ER89]

Willy is going nowhere with Kyle at the helm.

nor should he.

People trying to trade william when he produces when it matters - and if he was a UFA right now he'd get 8.5 easy.

 

[ULF_55]

I’m sure he wants to end up in St Louis too, but I think Calgary has to create all the leverage they can.

For Tkachuk, the absolute best case scenario is he takes the 1 year qualifying deal at 9M and goes right to UFA to sign another 7 years OR he he signs 8 years and moves.

I feel like for Calgary, they want whichever route gives the best return. I’m not convinced the best return is a deal where he signs long-term. I’d be trying to sell Tkachuk on a huge 2 year deal which will walk him to UFA but also sends him to a contender. I think it could be a win-win if the Flames are willing to eat a bit of money.

Who says no to a 2 year 24M deal that walks him to UFA? Then retained at 50% to a contender? Probably Calgary because thats 12M in cash for a guy that is no longer playing there but I think thats a win-win-win in terms of $$$ for player, return for Calgary and cap hit for contending team.

Just trying to get a bit creative to maximize the return.

Not sure they'd retain that much since they could just use that money for free agents and $12mm is a huge amount of real money to throw away for little benefit.

I believe they could just keep him for the year and then take that money and go to market when he leaves next year. Unlikely to happen, but they still own his rights.

 

[Rude Dog]

I'm just saying if he were to move - Nashville would be the perfect destination. They had the cap space, need for a top 6F, and young players (Tomasino, Fabbro) to make a deal work.

Not going to happen anyway, but if the Leafs did trade Nylander to Nashville, i would insist on Askarov coming back as part of it. They would finally have a long term solution in net.

 

[Fogelhund]

Kapanen is getting more than Engvall, based on the 30 points in 40 games the year before, and the production previously with the Leafs. For Engvall, that was his career year. I do think the Engvall signing was pretty good though.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Wow I expected $4.5+ mill AAV and 4-5 year term. The Leafs should have been all over that.

He could have put up points in the top-6 here and been in the limelight.

You know Edmonton would have been waiting at the dawn of free agency with that $5+ mill AAV contract too once his contract with the Leafs ended.

I did too, with the expectation that the contract looks really bad near the end.

In terms of what he is actually worth, 4-4.5 x 2-3 is right in line. He turns 30 at the start of the year. He put up 25 goals and 45 points this year (more or less) as an offensive winger and has a really bad playoff record. It is a solid deal that should not hurt Nashville while still getting a winger with a nice amount of skill.

Just look at Mike Hoffman and Dadonov, who were more impressive than Niederreiter when they hit UFA a few years ago. Dadonov was able to get a 3 x 5 deal and has been traded 4 times since then (3 if you exclude Anaheim)... And all of them were as cap dumps except to Vegas. Hoffman had to take a one year deal at 4 mill after pacing over 60 as a pure offensive winger, and followed that up with a season which is comparable to what Niederreiter has been pacing for the past 3 years. He was only able to get a 3 year x 4.5 mill deal after that. Hoffman is now arguably overpaid on that 4.5 mill deal and he would have still had another 3 years on his deal if he was given the 5 year deal like he wanted after his Florida days.

I guess teams have smartened up about overpaying those kinds of guys, especially when you can get guys in their primes for cheaper deals with more upside without sacrificing too much on recent proven results (Heinen, Milano, or even Rodrigues and Donato). Heinen, especially, seems like a guy who can emulate what Niederreiter would have brought if given the right opportunity and I imagine he is not getting anything close to what Niederreiter just got.

Moral of the story: Solid deal for Nashville, and certainly one I would be happy about if I were them, but hardly anything I would consider a "steal" beyond just being happy I didn't have to do the typically UFA overpayment we saw a week ago. And for the Leafs, who have some strong internal candidates for the spot that Niederreiter would have filled and can still go after a guy who makes more sense for their price structure like Heinen, Rodrigues, one of the shutdown wingers (ZAR, Motte, etc.), or even Milano and Donato, I doubt losing out is anything they are overly concerned about.

 

[MAB1]

Really love that deal for Nashville. 2 years is great value. It also takes away the Leafs best trading partner if they were willing to deal Nylander.

Why would the Leafs deal their best contract out of the forward group?

 

[Gallagbi]

PPTOI

Engvall 0:34
Kappa 1:36

Crazy wasn't Kap at a ppg around the 20 game mark?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

2 x $4m for a 30yr old power forward who's paced at 20/40 for his career and 25/50 through his prime, with solid nerdies and while playing for a successful team, in his last chance at a big payday....sure looks like the market has dried right the hell up.

When do the cap recapture penalties start for Nashville? I figured the term was tied to that

 

[weems]

Niederreiter would have been a good addition.

Crazy stat for him. Out of all the players in the league 5v5, he ranked #1 in rebounds created above expected and second place wasn't even close.

 

[Americanadian]

Because even putting aside oft-underrated Holl for a second, Nylander is a significantly better player than all of them.

Setting aside swapping Holl for Fabbro is underselling the overall trade. I believe that Niederreiter/Tomasino are more impactful than Nylander and a replacement level player, any WAR model you can find will support that. Even with Niederreiter at 4.5M and a replacement level player at 750k the Leafs would be saving 2M with this trade which would also allow them to keep Kerfoot over a 4th line player.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

What is the crazy addiction with some posters on here and always trying to trade nylander? It's such a weird fetish, he's also on a favourable contract, look at players not as good as him are getting. Stop trying to make the team worse.

I think because he is the only high priced forward who has a chance of being moved. JT had full NMC and a young kid so isn't going anywhere Marner is elite and if you trade him you likely end up worse as not many teams can fit in an 11 million dollar winger, Matthews enough said.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

LEAFS - COYOTES
Rasmus Sandin, Nick Robertson, Alex Kerfoot & 1st
for
Jacob Chychrun & Lawson Crouse (7 x 3.5)

LEAFS - ANY
Jake Muzzin
for
Picks/Prospects

CROUSE - MATTHEWS - MARNER
BUNTING - TAVARES - NYLANDER
JARNKROK - KAMPF - ENGVALL
ZAR* - - - DOUGLAS - - - KUBEL*
KNIES* (END OF SEASON)

RIELLY - - - BRODIE
CHYCHRUN - HOLL
GIO - - LILJEGREN

MURRAY & SAMSONOV

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Kapanen is getting more than Engvall, based on the 30 points in 40 games the year before, and the production previously with the Leafs. For Engvall, that was his career year. I do think the Engvall signing was pretty good though.

Needed the extra year on Engvall I think as he likely walks next summer.

 

[Apex Predator]

I don’t see any big Leafs trade happening. We will see Kerfoot, Holl and/or Sandin traded and that’s the off season.

I would be shocked if Muzzin, Brodie or the core 5 are moved.

 

[Fogelhund]

Crazy wasn't Kap at a ppg around the 20 game mark?

14 points after 21 games. 6 points over the last 39 games.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Needed the extra year on Engvall I think as he likely walks next summer.

I think that’s fine considering that you can expect Robertson and Knies to make the jump. This two can provide ELC value and Engvall’s $2 million can be re-allocated elsewhere in the line up

And a replacement can be signed for cheaper.

 

[Americanadian]

I am one of Tomasino's biggest fan - watched him grow in Niagara in person. However, there is really no way to look at this and think we got better unless Fabbro is much better than I am understanding. Losing Nylander and Holl and adding those 3 looks like a definitely net loss to me.

Tomasino is legitimately a top 10 defensive C in the league. He also produced similarly to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. You can project him to significantly increase his point totals while already being elite defensively. Fabbro is better than Holl while also being 6 years younger and he has team control after his current deal expires. Nino could have been the cherry on top. He is a far better player than his goals/points suggest.

Why would the Leafs deal their best contract out of the forward group?

1. I disagree that Nylander is their best value contract. Matthews is.

2. Just because he provides good value on his contract doesn't mean he has the best value per dollar possible. The contract that Nino just signed is far better value than Nylander. Tomasino provides significantly higher value per dollar than Nylander over the next 2 years.

 

[X66]

Really curious to see a tenacious 4th line, last year our 4th line was a waste of space.

 

[andora]

Setting aside swapping Holl for Fabbro is underselling the overall trade. I believe that Niederreiter/Tomasino are more impactful than Nylander and a replacement level player, any WAR model you can find will support that. Even with Niederreiter at 4.5M and a replacement level player at 750k the Leafs would be saving 2M with this trade which would also allow them to keep Kerfoot over a 4th line player.

Nino/tavares/tomasino as a line itself looks like a nice mix

Nino played so well with staal a slower player which tavares is. And fast a bit quicker up and town with a bit a skill.. tomasino

Only this line would be much more offensive with some bite

Not sure how that can be so definitely excused versus

Nylander and malgin
Nylander and gaudette
Nylander and aube kubel
Nylander and did we sign another minimum guy i forgot?

 

[ACC1224]

Why would the Leafs deal their best contract out of the forward group?

Best contract should yield a great return, no?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I believe that Niederreiter/Tomasino are more impactful than Nylander and a replacement level player

That's ridiculous, and there's also no reason the 2nd player on Nylander's side has to be "replacement level".

 

[Americanadian]

I know this is unrelated to the Leafs but this is a prime example of insider's doing anything to create a story:



The pens are 480k over the cap with a 23 man roster. They need to send down 1 player, any player they want, to get under the cap. They could send Zucker to the minors if they don't want him on the team and they would be cap compliant.

If Pittsburgh buys anyone out I will eat crow here but I just don't see it.

That's ridiculous, even putting aside that we don't need a "replacement level player" if we're keeping Nylander.

Explain to me how it is ridiculous? I think I have made it clear on these boards I am a numbers guy. I have watched every single Leafs game from 2015 on but I also trust in GAR/WAR/GSVA. Tomasino+Niederreiter score higher than Nylander in whatever metric you want to use. Replacement level player is being used here because the Leafs will need to dress one of Steeves/Anderson/Holmberg/Malgin as currently constructed. Even worse they might dress below replacement players like Simmonds/Clifford.