GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I would be absolutely floored if Dubas makes a move other than clearing cap space or signing a depth forward.

 

[Americanadian]

What are the other 12 teams with over 8M in cap space waiting to do.

A lot of them don't actually have 8M.

New Jersey has to sign Bratt.
Calgary has to sign Kylington, Tkachuk, Mangiapane.
Dallas has to sign Robertson, Oettinger.
NYI have to sign Dobson, Romanov.
Nashville has to sign Trenin which will take them below 8M in cap space.

Then of the remaining teams a lot of them have 2+ centers they'd prefer to run.

Anaheim has Zegras, MacTavish, Strome
Ottawa has Stutzle, Norris, Pinto
Buffalo has Thompson, Cozens, Krebs
Seattle has Wright, Beniers and Gourde, Wennberg who can step into the top 6

That leaves Arizona, Detroit, Winnipeg, Chicago. Kadri probably doesn't want to sign for any of those teams.

 

[SprDaVE]

A lot of them don't actually have 8M.

New Jersey has to sign Bratt.
Calgary has to sign Kylington, Tkachuk, Mangiapane.
Dallas has to sign Robertson, Oettinger.
NYI have to sign Dobson, Romanov.
Nashville has to sign Trenin which will take them below 8M in cap space.

Then of the remaining teams a lot of them have 2+ centers they'd prefer to run.

Anaheim has Zegras, MacTavish, Strome
Ottawa has Stutzle, Norris, Pinto
Buffalo has Thompson, Cozens, Krebs
Seattle has Wright, Beniers and Gourde, Wennberg who can step into the top 6

That leaves Arizona, Detroit, Winnipeg, Chicago. Kadri probably doesn't want to sign for any of those teams.

Oh I know. I didn't say they had cap space for Kadri. They technically DO have 8M in cap space until they don't. But it won't be the case as the season starts, just like the Leafs won't be over the cap.

You forgot about the Ducks though.

 

[CatchyTune]

Make this top 6/top4 happen.

Bunting - Matthews - Kane
Crouse - Tavares - Marner

Rielly - Brodie
Chychrun - Liljgren

I dont know how we can acquire Kane plus Chychyrun without giving up nearly every valueable prospect and pick until 2025

 

[ToneDog]

A Team with cap space will outbid us And happily pay him 9 million plus per year. he would play on top line as well and all situations. Remember he is point per game on second line in Toronto.

Perhaps but my guess is that that team probably is not aiming to win anything and/or the cap has increased significantly. Willie shows flashes but I am not sold that he is somebody that can pull the cart or cares to.

 

[Americanadian]

Oh I know. I didn't say they had cap space for Kadri. They technically DO have 8M in cap space until they don't. But it won't be the case as the season starts, just like the Leafs won't be over the cap.

You forgot about the Ducks though.

I included the Ducks under teams that have 2+ centers they'd prefer to play over Kadri. They have Zegras as 1C, MacTavish who they'd ideally want to play 2C but they just signed Strome who will play 2C if MacTavish can't. They also have Lundestrom who is their longterm 3C.

I would probably remove Arizona from the list because they have Schmaltz signed for 4 more years to play top 6C and the have Hayton/McBain who they probably want to give opportunities to and they just drafted Cooley/Geekie top 15 so they probably don't want to invest in another longterm top 2C.

Chicago also probably doesn't want to spend the money if you look at their off season.

That leaves Detroit and Winnipeg. I actually like Detroit as a fit - not sure if Kadri would though.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

I dont know how we can acquire Kane plus Chychyrun without giving up nearly every valueable prospect and pick until 2025

I think Kane is more doable than we think
Rental, they'll retain...

Chychrun and Crouse is an interesting one...I'd move something around Nylander.

 

[ULF_55]

I didn't say he'd sign that with us.

Yes, I could see him looking for a different opportunity.

 

[Trapper]

I didn't say he'd sign that with us.

Remember Nylander starts at 7.5. His cap is 6.9 because he missed 2 months.
I doubt he takes a 500K raise as adequate.
Forsberg went from 6 mil to 8.5.
A 2.5 increase.

Also, When Nylander is UFA, that Forsberg increase will have been 2 years ago. Don’t see Nylander taking less than 9/9.5. Something I would want no part of.

Nylander is “attractive” because he’s the only one who can exceed his contract at this time. But not in the future. I’d move him now and lock up a new core member at his current (or less) cap hit now.

 

[ULF_55]

I think Kane is more doable than we think
Rental, they'll retain...

Chychrun and Crouse is an interesting one...I'd move something around Nylander.

They can only retain 50%.

Not sure dumping the majority of the Leafs' future for a core that hasn't won a single round in the playoffs makes any sense.

Maybe if Matthews was Messier, but he isn't.

This is a passive team top to bottom.

 

[123offtheglass]

A fit I could see for Holl is Columbus, maybe Peeke + 6th for Holl.

Another could be Vancouver, Schenn + 5th for Holl.

 

[SprDaVE]

Remember Nylander starts at 7.5. His cap is 6.9 because he missed 2 months.
I doubt he takes a 500K raise as adequate.
Forsberg went from 6 mil to 8.5.
A 2.5 increase.

Also, When Nylander is UFA, that Forsberg increase will have been 2 years ago. Don’t see Nylander taking less than 9/9.5. Something I would want no part of.

Nylander is “attractive” because he’s the only one who can exceed his contract at this time. But not in the future. I’d move him now and lock up a new core member at his current (or less) cap hit now.

We'll see. It'll really depend on his next year or so. Another PPG level season and he'll definitely push over 9M mark on a long-term deal. With inflation and all that, I'm sure he'll get a nice raise.

Yes, I could see him looking for a different opportunity.

I hope he does for his sake.

 

[andora]

A fit I could see for Holl is Columbus, maybe Peeke + 6th for Holl.

I wish.. wouldnt bet on them moving peeke.. he played well enough that projection surpasses anything holl has done

They need to clear quite a bit of money anyhow

 

[ULF_55]

We'll see. It'll really depend on his next year or so. Another PPG level season and he'll definitely push over 9M mark on a long-term deal. With inflation and all that, I'm sure he'll get a nice raise.



I hope he does for his sake.

Just have to hope there is some change to the dynamic of the team over the next year or so.

Need a coach who can make decisions over all the players.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I wish.. wouldnt bet on them moving peeke.. he played well enough that projection surpasses anything holl has done

They need to clear quite a bit of money anyhow

Yeah Jackets are in a bind at the moment and they need to sign Laine. My guess is they're trying to move Nyquist's $5.5M + another contract. That Gudbranson deal was so unnecessary lol

 

[andora]

Yeah Jackets are in a bind at the moment and they need to sign Laine. My guess is they're trying to move Nyquist's $5.5M + another contract. That Gudbranson deal was so unnecessary lol

Yes i know right - i was stunned by that one..

I follow columbus a bit and for as well as they have slowly built some stuff up that is the type of contract that can just eat you from the inside out

 

[SprDaVE]

Yeah Jackets are in a bind at the moment and they need to sign Laine. My guess is they're trying to move Nyquist's $5.5M + another contract. That Gudbranson deal was so unnecessary lol

They have a crap ton of forwards, so moving out Nyquist makes sense. They'd probably love to dump Voracek at all cost, but nobody wants a 6 goal 8.25M forward.

That Gudbranson contract will be bought out or dumped with a pick in 2 years.

 

[MAB1]

He already makes 7. You think he will sign for a 1 million raise After scoring close to ppg and 35 goals. The floor is 9 in Toronto. he probably gets 9.5

Rielly signed for 1.5 million less AAV than Sergachev and $2 million less AAV than Nurse. Why is the floor 9 in Toronto? Because they signed Matthews and Marner? They're both worth the money. Tavares was the best free agent with higher offers. Nylander has outperformed the very contract people like you assumed was an overpayment at the time of signing.

Unless Nylander turns into some 90+ point player your scenario isn't happening, and if it is happening, you pay him that because Tavares is coming off the books a year later and you don't lose a mid 20's 90+ point scorer.

 

[Stephen]

You've gotta understand that hockey media in other Canadian cities get to be rabid homers, and that they'll always take shots at the Leafs when they're in pain.

Oh yeah, he’s butt hurt and throwing out some major schadenfreude at Toronto. So unprofessional.

 

[Stephen]

Rielly signed for 1.5 million less AAV than Sergachev and $2 million less AAV than Nurse. Why is the floor 9 in Toronto? Because they signed Matthews and Marner? They're both worth the money. Tavares was the best free agent with higher offers. Nylander has outperformed the very contract people like you assumed was an overpayment at the time of signing.

Unless Nylander turns into some 90+ point player your scenario isn't happening, and if it is happening, you pay him that because Tavares is coming off the books a year later and you don't lose a mid 20's 90+ point scorer.

Just my theory, but I think Rielly got $7.5 and not something in the $9 million range because of his height. A real premium was paid out that summer and Werenski, Jones, Nurse, are more in the category of rangy all situation minute munchers. Sergachev projects to be that but isn’t there.

 

[ITM]

I included the Ducks under teams that have 2+ centers they'd prefer to play over Kadri. They have Zegras as 1C, MacTavish who they'd ideally want to play 2C but they just signed Strome who will play 2C if MacTavish can't. They also have Lundestrom who is their longterm 3C.

I would probably remove Arizona from the list because they have Schmaltz signed for 4 more years to play top 6C and the have Hayton/McBain who they probably want to give opportunities to and they just drafted Cooley/Geekie top 15 so they probably don't want to invest in another longterm top 2C.

Chicago also probably doesn't want to spend the money if you look at their off season.

That leaves Detroit and Winnipeg. I actually like Detroit as a fit - not sure if Kadri would though.

I've written a number of posts noting why Detroit is a good fit. Can't see the downside for him there. He's 2 hours from home (ie London). Little Caesars is five minute to the border. Yzerman's going to have money to spend and Detroit has a boatload of picks to supplement their prospect pipeline and emerging foundation (eg Seider, Raymond, etc...).

For a soon to be 32 year old Cup winner...I don't see many other fits as ideal as Detroit.

 

[Americanadian]

I've written a number of posts noting why Detroit is a good fit. Can't see the downside for him there. He's 2 hours from home (ie London). Little Caesars is five minute to the border. Yzerman's going to have money to spend and Detroit has a boatload of picks to supplement their prospect pipeline and emerging foundation (eg Seider, Raymond, etc...).

For a soon to be 32 year old Cup winner...I don't see many other fits as ideal as Detroit.

The only downside I see is they will have a huge logjam at forward. It would look like:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Vrana-Kadri-Perron
Kubalik-Copp-Zadina
Suter-Fabbri-Sundqvist
Erne-Rasmussen

That's 3.6M in scratches but they can afford it. Next year Sundqvist/Suter/Ned expire and they clear 3.1M in dead cap which they use to give raises to Larkin and Bert. The year after they give Hronek and Perron's money to Seider/Raymond and they're home free.

likewise

The best case scenario for Colorado would be not signing Kadri and signing Rodrigues instead at 3M to play 2C. Newhook eventually usurps Rodrigues as 2C after they sign him long term. Keep Girard for one more year to lower Byram's minutes then sign Byram long term after playing 3rd pair for his entire ELC. Once they sign Byram, they trade Girard for an actual return. They give Johnson's expiring deal to Mack. They would be sitting pretty moving forward.

 

[Leaffan1991]

The only downside I see is they will have a huge logjam at forward. It would look like:

Bertuzzi-Larkin-Raymond
Vrana-Kadri-Perron
Kubalik-Copp-Zadina
Suter-Fabbri-Sundqvist
Erne-Rasmussen

That's 3.6M in scratches but they can afford it. Next year Sundqvist/Suter/Ned expire and they clear 3.1M in dead cap which they use to give raises to Larkin and Bert. The year after they give Hronek and Perron's money to Seider/Raymond and they're home free.

That's a really good forward group, wow hopefully he doesn't go to Detroit

 

[Menzinger]

I've written a number of posts noting why Detroit is a good fit. Can't see the downside for him there. He's 2 hours from home (ie London). Little Caesars is five minute to the border. Yzerman's going to have money to spend and Detroit has a boatload of picks to supplement their prospect pipeline and emerging foundation (eg Seider, Raymond, etc...).

For a soon to be 32 year old Cup winner...I don't see many other fits as ideal as Detroit.

Depends on how confident he is at them turning it around quickly. He may want a team that's going to be competitive next season more so than 2-3 even 4 seasons down the road.

 

[Leaffan1991]

Imagine having Tkachuk on one of the top two lines though? Definitely adds a much needed different element to that top 6 that has been lacking for a very very long time