GDT: Free Agent Frenzy 2022

[LeafSteel]

So many of y'all is inserting zach ashton-reese the 231 time hitter in 69 games on there

Lets see if our gm follow the protocol. Should get him, a hard one he is and there aren't a lot of those bones

He gonna twerk that thang hard sire? Hard as dirt???

Ready to hang to ma butt cheeks, thurrs for real Coach!

Twerk dem butt cheeks HARDD!!!!

How’d I do Coach????

 

[BobbyMargaritasBurnr]

This seems like a pretty reasonable guess as to what Matthews will cost us. I mean I've seen a few people say 16 million but I figure they're either paranoid, clueless or just trying to stir up some shit.

There's always something to be said for keeping it real IMHO.

Something I heard thrown out there was what if the Matthews camp wants to kick the can down the road to allow the cap to take a couple significant leaps before locking in that lifetime deal.
If for example Matthews wanted a 2-3 year extension at what he’s making now to maybe 12.5 that allows them to get a better hold of the landscape of the league post Covid.
I don’t think you could be upset about that as a leaf fan either as it essentially means they end up with the 7-8 year deal at his current cap hit in the end and can extend a massive lifetime deal once escrow is paid back and there’s a ~100m cap.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

This whole PLD situation is a complete mess. Why on earth would his camp come out and say that he only wants to play for the Habs? Is it a tactic to squeeze every dollar out of the Jets?

If I'm the Habs, I'm not improving on the original rejected offer. I'll take my chances and potentially sign him in a couple of years, or perhaps revisit this idea in a year.

Highly doubt anyone will offer sheet him

 

[BertCorbeau]

This whole PLD situation is a complete mess. Why on earth would his camp come out and say that he only wants to play for the Habs? Is it a tactic to squeeze every dollar out of the Jets?

If I'm the Habs, I'm not improving on the original rejected offer. I'll take my chances and potentially sign him in a couple of years, or perhaps revisit this idea in a year.

Highly doubt anyone will offer sheet him

Yeah Habs are under no pressure to win now so they can wait.

PLD is a douche. Perfect fit for the Habs

 

[Coachcorner]

Can you answer me honestly do you speak like this in real life? If so awesome. If not, start

I do sire, always tried to be different and walk between the raindrops. Some like it and some don't maybe, but it puzzles a sucka hard sometimes for surely. Special are the sitautions and happening in life at times. Much better to be david lynch silencio at times, it means strength and honour so often.

Our own leafs need to start being different too Do something special in the playoffs, don't just stand there with the mouth wide open. Yzerman and sakic did it, so did messier and sundin (almost won it too) with belfour (drunk) tucker and neauwendyk. We need to harden this all up sire. Doesn't have to be a rocket scientiest, nore even a math teacher nore alcohol shopper sailsman, just purify the team and game and be IT.

 

[HolyCrap]

I do sire, always tried to be different and walk between the raindrops. Some like it and some don't maybe, but it puzzles a sucka hard sometimes for surely. Special are the sitautions and happening in life at times. Much better to be david lynch silencio at times, it means strength and honour so often.

Our own leafs need to start being different too Do something special in the playoffs, don't just stand there with the mouth wide open. Yzerman and sakic did it, so did messier and sundin (almost won it too) with belfour (drunk) tucker and neauwendyk. We need to harden this all up sire. Doesn't have to be a rocket scientiest, nore even a math teacher nore alcohol shopper sailsman, just purify the team and game and be IT.

Amen. You’re modern day Poet. Your words are smoother than cat shit on linoleum.

 

[Go4soda]

People don't want to move Muzzin because he's EXACTLY what we need more of on this team. A legit big physical player that can handle the puck well and play with other good players.

However, I think we're missing that Muzzin either way. Based on age, playing style, injury history, how he looked for most of last year, etc, I think there are very valid concerns that he won't be that player anymore, at least not for ~18-20+ minutes a night. So I'd rather have the capspace at this point.

age is the only factor in sandin over muzzin. our defence is soft right now with too many of the same player. with muzzin aging, the ideal thing would be to try and acquire a younger muzzin -type D man. our D needs balance.

 

[conFABulator]

Out:

Kerfoot
Holl

In:

2 or 3 draft picks in separate deals
$5.5M in cap space

Sign:
Sandin 1.7M
Stralman 850K
ZAR 1.5M
Rodrigues 1.2M
Gagner 750K

Bunting / Matthews / Nylander
Robertson / Tavares / Marner
Engvall / Kampf / Jarnkrok
ZAR / Rodrigues / NAK
Gagner

Sandin / Rielly
Muzzin / Brodie
Giordano / Liljgren
Stralman

$500K left in cap space for where I may have undershot the cost to sign the above.

Jarnkrok replaces Mikheyev
ZAR replaces Kase
Robertson replaces Blackwell
Rodrigues replaces Kerfoot
NAK replaces Simmonds / Clifford
Gagner replaces Spezza
Stralman replaces Holl
Murray replaces Campbell
Samsonov replaces Mrazek

+ Lots of Marlies depth: Gaudette, Malgin, Anderson, Clifford, Simmonds, Benn, Mete, Kallgren, Will.


Some upgrades, perhaps some downgrades...it seems like a more well constructed lineup with a bottom six that might be vastly improved as far as purpose and fit.

 

[ULF_55]

age is the only factor in sandin over muzzin. our defence is soft right now with too many of the same player. with muzzin aging, the ideal thing would be to try and acquire a younger muzzin -type D man. our D needs balance.

Sandin is a work in progress.
Turned 22 in March.
He was drafted the year before Robertson.
I expect he'll continue to improve.
At 5'11", not sure he'll ever hit 200 lbs.
He is willing to engage physically.
When healthy was playing more minutes than Liljegren, although I think Liljegren should be getting both PP and PK time.
Interesting he was getting 2nd. most TOI in overtime.
My guess Leafs will regret moving him if it comes to that.

 

[VanW27]

age is the only factor in sandin over muzzin. our defence is soft right now with too many of the same player. with muzzin aging, the ideal thing would be to try and acquire a younger muzzin -type D man. our D needs balance.

Yep, this is why I've said trade both Muzzin and Sandin.

Bring in a younger and cheaper Muzzin type player.

 

[conFABulator]

Sandin is a work in progress.
Turned 22 in March.
He was drafted the year before Robertson.
I expect he'll continue to improve.
At 5'11", not sure he'll ever hit 200 lbs.
He is willing to engage physically.
When healthy was playing more minutes than Liljegren, although I think Liljegren should be getting both PP and PK time.
Interesting he was getting 2nd. most TOI in overtime.
My guess Leafs will regret moving him if it comes to that.


View attachment 570666

Good post on Sandin. I agree.

As for hits/60. Also a good point. The only issue with that analysis is most of our top H/60 guys were playing limited ice time. So the amount of hits in a game were not as impactful as the per 60 made it look.

I just put a lineup together that added ZAR and Rodrigues. They both throw hits too and can do it with a more regular roll than Clifford or Simmonds for example.

 

[ULF_55]

Good post on Sandin. I agree.

As for hits/60. Also a good point. The only issue with that analysis is most of our top H/60 guys were playing limited ice time. So the amount of hits in a game were not as impactful as the per 60 made it look.

I just put a lineup together that added ZAR and Rodrigues. They both throw hits too and can do it with a more regular roll than Clifford or Simmonds for example.

Yes, players with limited ice time can have inflated H/60 as they play that way to stay in the line-up, but it isn't usually sustainable over a full season.

 

[andora]

Do something special in the playoffs, don't just stand there with the mouth wide open.

So i guess you dont want puljujarvi then

 

[Warden of the North]

Jets need to hardball PLD. Refuse his request.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Damien Cox: With the Leafs’ long-term future unclear, expect Kyle Dubas to make a big-time addition

It’s impossible to look at where the Leafs were last season and not get the feeling something pretty big is going to happen, writes Damien Cox.

www.thestar.com

When you add it all up, the comings and the goings, and blend it together with the cap situation and overall contract picture, one is left with an inescapable conclusion.

There’s another shoe to drop here. A rather large shoe.

You may have only one more unfettered season with Matthews before you have to stare down the possibility of having him walk into free agency in 2024. Calgary, with Johnny Gaudreau, just experienced that disaster. The same goes for Nylander, while both captain John Tavares and Mitch Marner will be free agents in 2025. The Leafs won’t be re-signing all of those players to major new deals.

The Leafs could use an upgrade on either Alex Kerfoot or Michael Bunting in the top six forwards. Justin Holl, one year away from UFA status, and Jake Muzzin, probably too banged-up to be worth the $5.625 million he eats up on the payroll, look to be movable assets. Rasmus Sandin is unsigned, but still an asset.

Add it all up and it seems logical that sometime between now and next year’s trade deadline the Leafs will be using some combination of players and draft picks to add an impact forward to the second most explosive offence in hockey.

That’s what Dubas’ work so far this off-season really means. An excellent regular season team is no worse, and it is positioned to make a big-time addition, possibly as a short-term rental, sometime in the next seven months.

Who will that player be? Well, just look toward all the talented forwards who are currently scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next summer.

That list begins with Chicago superstar Patrick Kane. It also includes his teammate Jonathan Toews. There’s also Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan, Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Larkin, Jonathan Huberdeau, J.T. Miller and Bo Horvat. And others.

Some of the names on that group will stay put. Vancouver won’t let Horvat walk. MacKinnon will remain in Denver. Larkin, the captain of the Red Wings, seems likely to remain in Detroit, except he’s a little older than the young group Steve Yzerman is putting together. Huberdeau similarly seems very much part of the core in Florida and the Panthers are a divisional rival. But that team already suffered this off-season by being in cap purgatory and may need to re-evaluate during next season.

Miller’s future in Vancouver seems very dicey. So put him at the top of the watch list alongside Kane.

There are many variables here, and this is still a Leaf team that hasn’t been able to get out of the first round of the playoffs. But that only adds to the sense of urgency to give this particular group the best possible chance to be special before its time is up.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This whole PLD situation is a complete mess. Why on earth would his camp come out and say that he only wants to play for the Habs? Is it a tactic to squeeze every dollar out of the Jets?

If I'm the Habs, I'm not improving on the original rejected offer. I'll take my chances and potentially sign him in a couple of years, or perhaps revisit this idea in a year.

Highly doubt anyone will offer sheet him

I can't believe he really did that, just incredible. Even Kevin Durant wasn't this demanding, who does this guy think he is? This does him no good whatsoever, what a moron.

 

[Fogelhund]

Yep, this is why I've said trade both Muzzin and Sandin.

Bring in a younger and cheaper Muzzin type player.

Who would that be?

 

[BeLeafing]

As much as it fixes the cap constraints, I very much don't want to trade Kerfoot. He either adds offense to L3 or is able to take the 2LW role if Robertson falters. He is too useful, trade Holl.

If it means making Sandin sit until he takes a lower number or we accrue enough space for him.. then so be it. He has 88 career games. He should not have the leverage here.

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok
Malgin-Kampf-Kubel
Clifford

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Muzzin-(Mete/Benn)

Murray
Samsonov

Lets us run a 21 man roster with 600k available, and 1.2M-1.3M when you demote Mete/Benn. Off days you run a 20 man to accrue slightly more space.

I don't pretend to be smarter than Pridham and company, but there has to be a way around this by only trading Holl.

 

[Sebastien]

Wouldn't it just be smart for nhl to turn off cap for several years due to how dead free agency is and how many player's need job?

 

[LeafSteel]

Jets need to hardball PLD. Refuse his request.

Guy comes across as a shiftless head case.

Even if he forces his way to Montreal, I don’t see him lasting more than a season or two.

Guy never seems to see himself as part of the problem and rather move on thinking a change of scenery is the answer.

I like the skill but I don’t like what’s between his ears.

 

[Fogelhund]

As much as it fixes the cap constraints, I very much don't want to trade Kerfoot. He either adds offense to L3 or is able to take the 2LW role if Robertson falters. He is too useful, trade Holl.

If it means making Sandin sit until he takes a lower number or we accrue enough space for him.. then so be it. He has 88 career games. He should not have the leverage here.

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok
Malgin-Kampf-Kubel
Clifford

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Muzzin-(Mete/Benn)

Murray
Samsonov

Lets us run a 21 man roster with 600k available, and 1.2M-1.3M when you demote Mete/Benn. Off days you run a 20 man to accrue slightly more space.

I don't pretend to be smarter than Pridham and company, but there has to be a way around this by only trading Holl.

If you recall, Nylander sitting meant that he had a much higher cap hit in the year of signing.

This assumes a December 1st signing, the latest you can sign... 185 day season, and December 1st has 134 days. 3 years, flat $2 mil contract

Cap hit (2023-24 to 2024-2025) = ($2,000,000 × 134 / 185 + $4,000,000) / 3 = $1,816,216.22
Cap hit (2022-23) = $1,816,216.22 × 185 / 135 = $2,507,452.69

Sitting someone doesn't actually help with the cap hit.

 

[conFABulator]

As much as it fixes the cap constraints, I very much don't want to trade Kerfoot. He either adds offense to L3 or is able to take the 2LW role if Robertson falters. He is too useful, trade Holl.

If it means making Sandin sit until he takes a lower number or we accrue enough space for him.. then so be it. He has 88 career games. He should not have the leverage here.

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kerfoot-Jarnkrok
Malgin-Kampf-Kubel
Clifford

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Muzzin-(Mete/Benn)

Murray
Samsonov

Lets us run a 21 man roster with 600k available, and 1.2M-1.3M when you demote Mete/Benn. Off days you run a 20 man to accrue slightly more space.

I don't pretend to be smarter than Pridham and company, but there has to be a way around this by only trading Holl.

I fully agree with the logic, but not necessarily the suggested tactics.

Yes, Holl goes...but Kerfoot feels like a luxury at $3.5M and he will probably walk at the end of the year as we cannot afford that luxury, possibly at an increased price moving forward. Having said this, we are in win-now mode and we can't dump Kerfoot because he does add value. That 1.2M in space in your framework will not be enough to sign Sandin and we need him to take a step forward for us so waiting and grinding him down to a lower pro-rated number seems like a risk for a number of obvious reasons.

This is why I think we move Kerfoot and get some sort of asset, a prospect or a draft choice, but we also get the $3.5M. It is all about how we re-allocate those resources. IF we could sign ZAR ($1.5M), Rodrigues ($1.2M), Sandin ($1.7M), and say Stralman or even Subban (850K) I believe we have a much more balanced line-up and can run a 22-man roster with Marlie depth we haven't had in a while.

These types of moves allow us to swap out Kerfoot, Malgin and Clifford from your line-up for Rodrigues, ZAR and Anderson, Gaudette, Malgin or a vet UFA (Gagner?) for Clifford. We also swap out Benn/Mette for Sandin and can carry an extra D, either Benn/Mette or the aforementioned veteran (Stralman or Subban). This would leave us with cap space too which we can accrue for a trade deadline add. We can also possibly add Knies as a playoff option for us.

I think the key here is swapping out Kerfoot for Rodrigues which might provide that same flexibility and a different dimension at a much lower cost.

LATE EDIT: I also think we consider a top six of:

Bunting / Matthews / Nylander
Robertson / Tavares / Marner

I love AM and MM together, but Mattews can carry a line and has great chemistry with Bunting and may unlock something in Willy to hit even another level? Marner with Tavares and Robertson has a playmaker with two goal scorers and brings a defensive conscience to that line...that's the biggest issue with keeping WN with JT in my opinion.

 

[BeLeafing]

If you recall, Nylander sitting meant that he had a much higher cap hit in the year of signing.

This assumes a December 1st signing, the latest you can sign... 185 day season, and December 1st has 134 days. 3 years, flat $2 mil contract

Cap hit (2023-24 to 2024-2025) = ($2,000,000 × 134 / 185 + $4,000,000) / 3 = $1,816,216.22
Cap hit (2022-23) = $1,816,216.22 × 185 / 135 = $2,507,452.69

Sitting someone doesn't actually help with the cap hit.

That wasn't something I considered, though would that be a factor on a 1 year contract?

This Sandin stuff just seems quite excessive for a guy who hasn't established himself as a full time player yet. I'm not overly interesting in caving to his demands.

 

[Fogelhund]

That wasn't something I considered, though would that be a factor on a 1 year contract?

This Sandin stuff just seems quite excessive for a guy who hasn't established himself as a full time player yet. I'm not overly interesting in caving to his demands.

Yes, it would be a factor for a one year as well. I don't think they will cave, but him sitting doesn't help the cap at all.

 

[justashadowof]

Wouldn't it just be smart for nhl to turn off cap for several years due to how dead free agency is and how many player's need job?

I'm sure they think this is the cap actually working. Gates are down and is probably going to stay down with wild inflation.