Where are you moving Kubalik. Not a lot of fits, maybe Florida depending how long their injured guys are out.
Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5
- Thread starter AchtzehnBaby
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Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Ok this is what I said this summer (Sep 6, 2023) :
- Kubalik is UFA after the season. Sens won't have the cap space to re-sign him as they really need to focus on signing a better forward than him or even Tarasenko. He would walk for nothing while we could get an asset for him NOW. Joseph will COST an asset to move now and will most likely restore positive value this season and particularly with the cap going up next season
- Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season. There's TEN (10) other guys who require and need PP time before him, and that's not even counting Greig and Brannstrom.
- Over the last 2 seasons, Total Points per 60 minutes at 5v5, Joseph 1.46 and Kubalik 1.37
- Joseph is our best PK forward (history of posting Elite K metrics). He's also one of our fastest skaters and one of our best forwards defensively at ES. Kubalik wouldn't come close to any of that.
The thing is you have to see BEYOND the basic stats. There's a reason Kubalik was let go as a RFA by Chicago, he's not that great at ES. Joseph is easily a better 2-way player at ES and is a MAJOR asset on the PK. Again, really a no brainer to trade Kubalik, get a pick, keep Joseph (instead of spending a pick) and could even get some assets next off-season if we decide to trade Joseph. I don't any argument for trading Joseph instead of Kubalik, not even ONE.
Or even August 5th :
The smartest thing to get cap compliant would be to trade Kubalik for a pick instead of paying anything to move Joseph's contract
All these guys need PP time :
Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, Jake Sanderson, Erik Brannstrom, Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Vladimir Tarasenko, Dominik Kubalik, Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig
13 guys, 10 spots
Joseph plays a big role on the PK and... here's a comparison I made between the 2 players :
Kubalik is a pretty decent offensive player but look at the other Sens players, there won't be a lot of PP time available... Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season
Over the last 2 years, Kubalik has 51 ESP despite only missing 5 games. Joseph has 45 ES + PK pts despite missing 39 games...
So Joseph has a better scoring rate at ES (1.58 pts per 60 ES minutes vs 1.53 for Kubalik), is quite better defensively and is a TOP PK forward in the NHL.
What was Ottawa's weakness last season? 5v5, they finished 25th in GF%
Kubalik's contract (1 year vs 2.5 AAV) makes him attractive and would return a decent pick while clearing 2.5 AAV
Joseph's is a cap casualty (3 years vs 2.95 AAV) and would cost a decent pick to move
Plus, Kubalik will want a pretty significant raise if he puts good numbers in Ottawa... something that we won't be able to afford (as we might go after a bigger fish if Tarasenko is not kept) or want (risky contract for Kubalik?)
I know which guy I want traded. Ideally I'd want both but we still have so much dead money, no choice.
Paying Jarventie to "get rid" of Joseph who doesn't even make 3.0 would be as stupid as paying a 1st. If Dorion does that I hope it blows up in his face big time like many of his moves did.
Trade Kubalik for whatever you can get, even if you have to lose him for free on waivers, I don't care it's still much more preferable than losing Joseph + Jarventie
Such a no brainer
That's A LOT. Ilya Lyubushkin and his 2.75 AAV returned a 4th round pick in August. EVEN IF Kubalik has no value on the current market, I can't see him not getting picked up on waivers. There's absolutely no risk with him, only 2.5 AAV, only 1 year term and most likely worth at least a 3rd at the deadline. The reality is not 31 teams allying together to make the Senators "pay" for Dorion's mismanagement. Teams will look after their own benefit and getting Kubalik can be beneficial for many teams
It's probably just Dorion not wanting to lose face in the DeBrincat deal... Problem for him is that if he pays to move Joseph or give away Brannstrom, he loses face even more in the Paul or Stone deals lol.
- Kubalik is UFA after the season. Sens won't have the cap space to re-sign him as they really need to focus on signing a better forward than him or even Tarasenko. He would walk for nothing while we could get an asset for him NOW. Joseph will COST an asset to move now and will most likely restore positive value this season and particularly with the cap going up next season
- Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season. There's TEN (10) other guys who require and need PP time before him, and that's not even counting Greig and Brannstrom.
- Over the last 2 seasons, Total Points per 60 minutes at 5v5, Joseph 1.46 and Kubalik 1.37
- Joseph is our best PK forward (history of posting Elite K metrics). He's also one of our fastest skaters and one of our best forwards defensively at ES. Kubalik wouldn't come close to any of that.
The thing is you have to see BEYOND the basic stats. There's a reason Kubalik was let go as a RFA by Chicago, he's not that great at ES. Joseph is easily a better 2-way player at ES and is a MAJOR asset on the PK. Again, really a no brainer to trade Kubalik, get a pick, keep Joseph (instead of spending a pick) and could even get some assets next off-season if we decide to trade Joseph. I don't any argument for trading Joseph instead of Kubalik, not even ONE.
Or even August 5th :
The smartest thing to get cap compliant would be to trade Kubalik for a pick instead of paying anything to move Joseph's contract
All these guys need PP time :
Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, Jake Sanderson, Erik Brannstrom, Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson, Vladimir Tarasenko, Dominik Kubalik, Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig
13 guys, 10 spots
Joseph plays a big role on the PK and... here's a comparison I made between the 2 players :
Kubalik is a pretty decent offensive player but look at the other Sens players, there won't be a lot of PP time available... Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season
Over the last 2 years, Kubalik has 51 ESP despite only missing 5 games. Joseph has 45 ES + PK pts despite missing 39 games...
So Joseph has a better scoring rate at ES (1.58 pts per 60 ES minutes vs 1.53 for Kubalik), is quite better defensively and is a TOP PK forward in the NHL.
What was Ottawa's weakness last season? 5v5, they finished 25th in GF%
Kubalik's contract (1 year vs 2.5 AAV) makes him attractive and would return a decent pick while clearing 2.5 AAV
Joseph's is a cap casualty (3 years vs 2.95 AAV) and would cost a decent pick to move
Plus, Kubalik will want a pretty significant raise if he puts good numbers in Ottawa... something that we won't be able to afford (as we might go after a bigger fish if Tarasenko is not kept) or want (risky contract for Kubalik?)
I know which guy I want traded. Ideally I'd want both but we still have so much dead money, no choice.
Paying Jarventie to "get rid" of Joseph who doesn't even make 3.0 would be as stupid as paying a 1st. If Dorion does that I hope it blows up in his face big time like many of his moves did.
Trade Kubalik for whatever you can get, even if you have to lose him for free on waivers, I don't care it's still much more preferable than losing Joseph + Jarventie
Such a no brainer
That's A LOT. Ilya Lyubushkin and his 2.75 AAV returned a 4th round pick in August. EVEN IF Kubalik has no value on the current market, I can't see him not getting picked up on waivers. There's absolutely no risk with him, only 2.5 AAV, only 1 year term and most likely worth at least a 3rd at the deadline. The reality is not 31 teams allying together to make the Senators "pay" for Dorion's mismanagement. Teams will look after their own benefit and getting Kubalik can be beneficial for many teams
It's probably just Dorion not wanting to lose face in the DeBrincat deal... Problem for him is that if he pays to move Joseph or give away Brannstrom, he loses face even more in the Paul or Stone deals lol.
Senator Stanley
Registered User
At the trade deadline, I'd expect him to be worth a 3rd round pick, give or take a round depending on the season he's having. So on the one hand, if you're a rebuilding team with cap space, why not pay a late round pick today for a 3rd round pick in February/March?
The answer, of course, is that there is an opportunity cost for the team making a deal like this. Is it better to sit on the cap space and hope that a sweeter deal to comes along, or to take Kubalik plus his TBD deadline return right now? I can see the argument for taking the sure thing (Kubalik plus a TBD pick), but I can also see a team saying that that sure thing just isn't enticing enough to give up their flexibility.
Those teams have their top 3 LW positions locked for the most part.
frightenedinmatenum2
Registered User
-Erik Brannstrom (2M x 1Y)
-Dominik Kubalik (2.5M x1Y)
-Andrew Peeke (2.75M x 3Y)
Why Columbus Does It:
The rumor is that they are shopping a defenseman. This gets Columbus out of the Peeke contract at the expense of taking on two expiring contracts. I highly doubt there is a trade market for Peeke right now for similar reasons to why there isn't a trade market for Joseph.
Peeke has been scratched already early in the season. He signed a 3 year extensions before the start of the 2022 season, and then he saw a drop in play. He is a big physical defenseman who is primarily used in tough defensive assignments. Those types of players are always hit and miss because it is such a tough job for anybody but a complete stud (re: Cody Ceci).
Why Ottawa Does It:
This trade clears 1.75M. That should be enough to sign Pinto on a 1 year contract. Given how close we are to January 1st, Staios may also be able to give the go-ahead for a handshake agreement on a 2 year contract with a 1 year 1.75M contract signed now, and a second 1 year contract signed on January 1st that makes up whatever they would have agreed to on a 2 year deal. So for example, if a 2 year AAV would have been 2.5M, they would sign a 1 year 3.25M AAV contract on January 1st.
Peeke is a wild-card because of his up and down play, but if he can fit in beside Sanderson on a shutdown pair, that frees up Zub to play with Chabot and/or Chychrun. The Senators primary reason for taking the contract is to create short term cap space without giving up picks/prospects at the expense of taking on long term cap space. With that said, Peeke would fit a major need on the blueline with his size, physicality, and right hand shot. The only question would be what version of Peeke the Senators would get.
This trade happens after both Kubalik and Brannstrom clear waivers. If either is claimed, Ottawa doesn't need to make the trade.
Sens of Anarchy
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2013
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The worst solution is the one we have right now with Pinto unsigned.
I think Dorion has tried to move Joseph , Brannstrom and he'll likely add Kubalik to that list. He doesn't like what he is hearing on what else has to happen or the return if any at all is proposed.
I would like to know how it benefits the team going forward having Pinto unsigned. What is it it Dorion is trying to achieve? What is his solution given he isn't moving any of the three that are the most obvious to move? Just wait until something more favorable occurs in all of this seems to be his strategy. What a way to treat Pinto. Very disrespectful. It can't all fall under "It's a business" with a screw up of this magnitude.
I think Dorion has tried to move Joseph , Brannstrom and he'll likely add Kubalik to that list. He doesn't like what he is hearing on what else has to happen or the return if any at all is proposed.
I would like to know how it benefits the team going forward having Pinto unsigned. What is it it Dorion is trying to achieve? What is his solution given he isn't moving any of the three that are the most obvious to move? Just wait until something more favorable occurs in all of this seems to be his strategy. What a way to treat Pinto. Very disrespectful. It can't all fall under "It's a business" with a screw up of this magnitude.
Somehow I don't think it's easy to move 4.5M in contracts that cleared waivers
-Erik Brannstrom (2M x 1Y)
-Dominik Kubalik (2.5M x1Y)
-Andrew Peeke (2.75M x 3Y)
Why Columbus Does It:
The rumor is that they are shopping a defenseman. This gets Columbus out of the Peeke contract at the expense of taking on two expiring contracts. I highly doubt there is a trade market for Peeke right now for similar reasons to why there isn't a trade market for Joseph.
Peeke has been scratched already early in the season. He signed a 3 year extensions before the start of the 2022 season, and then he saw a drop in play. He is a big physical defenseman who is primarily used in tough defensive assignments. Those types of players are always hit and miss because it is such a tough job for anybody but a complete stud (re: Cody Ceci).
Why Ottawa Does It:
This trade clears 1.75M. That should be enough to sign Pinto on a 1 year contract. Given how close we are to January 1st, Staios may also be able to give the go-ahead for a handshake agreement on a 2 year contract with a 1 year 1.75M contract signed now, and a second 1 year contract signed on January 1st that makes up whatever they would have agreed to on a 2 year deal. So for example, if a 2 year AAV would have been 2.5M, they would sign a 1 year 3.25M AAV contract on January 1st.
Peeke is a wild-card because of his up and down play, but if he can fit in beside Sanderson on a shutdown pair, that frees up Zub to play with Chabot and/or Chychrun. The Senators primary reason for taking the contract is to create short term cap space without giving up picks/prospects at the expense of taking on long term cap space. With that said, Peeke would fit a major need on the blueline with his size, physicality, and right hand shot. The only question would be what version of Peeke the Senators would get.
This trade happens after both Kubalik and Brannstrom clear waivers. If either is claimed, Ottawa doesn't need to make the trade.
I think what he's trying to achieve is creating the cap space to sign Pinto.
The issue seems to be that the potential sweetening involved is less palatable than not having Pinto signed.
Eventually it will get solved.
Maybe Norris and batherson together can help Kubalik.
I wonder what the Detroit offer was if we didn’t want a roster player
I wonder what the Detroit offer was if we didn’t want a roster player
TonySoprano11
It's a very delicate situation.
We have no idea what the first will turn into. If the first turned into a Kubalik caliber player it would be a win. But we have no idea what is going to happen. So for now, Kubalik is the best asset.
BondraTime
Registered User
Definitely not.
One is worth a 1st round pick, one is worth a mid at best round pick.
We can get a very, very useful player this year for our Det pick, we may need to add a pick to get rid of Kubalik.
Add a pick to get rid of Kubalik? What ????
At worse you waive him and he gets claimed for free
No need to waste assets
I think it depends how badly Columbus wants out of the Peeke deal. They have Gaudreau, Fantilli and Johnson at LW. They also have a full top 6 D with maybe Boqvist being the worst, not sure if Brannstrom could squeeze in, and Werenski will be returning at some point.
-Erik Brannstrom (2M x 1Y)
-Dominik Kubalik (2.5M x1Y)
-Andrew Peeke (2.75M x 3Y)
Why Columbus Does It:
The rumor is that they are shopping a defenseman. This gets Columbus out of the Peeke contract at the expense of taking on two expiring contracts. I highly doubt there is a trade market for Peeke right now for similar reasons to why there isn't a trade market for Joseph.
Peeke has been scratched already early in the season. He signed a 3 year extensions before the start of the 2022 season, and then he saw a drop in play. He is a big physical defenseman who is primarily used in tough defensive assignments. Those types of players are always hit and miss because it is such a tough job for anybody but a complete stud (re: Cody Ceci).
Why Ottawa Does It:
This trade clears 1.75M. That should be enough to sign Pinto on a 1 year contract. Given how close we are to January 1st, Staios may also be able to give the go-ahead for a handshake agreement on a 2 year contract with a 1 year 1.75M contract signed now, and a second 1 year contract signed on January 1st that makes up whatever they would have agreed to on a 2 year deal. So for example, if a 2 year AAV would have been 2.5M, they would sign a 1 year 3.25M AAV contract on January 1st.
Peeke is a wild-card because of his up and down play, but if he can fit in beside Sanderson on a shutdown pair, that frees up Zub to play with Chabot and/or Chychrun. The Senators primary reason for taking the contract is to create short term cap space without giving up picks/prospects at the expense of taking on long term cap space. With that said, Peeke would fit a major need on the blueline with his size, physicality, and right hand shot. The only question would be what version of Peeke the Senators would get.
This trade happens after both Kubalik and Brannstrom clear waivers. If either is claimed, Ottawa doesn't need to make the trade.
frightenedinmatenum2
Registered User
Taking on Peeke is the equivalent of someone taking Joseph from us. It's a negative value contract. Peeke would also clear waivers.
That's not an easy out for the Senators. If Peeke does not return to form in Ottawa, after this season, they are stuck with 2.75M x 2 years.
It's 8.25M of cap/salary in, and 4.5M out. It strongly favors Columbus, but Ottawa is in a bind and Peeke might be a good fit considering the current makeup of our back end.
They wouldn't make the deal to get the players. It's purely a cap deal. If Kubalik or Brannstrom return to form, that's just a bonus for them.
They don't need either player. In terms of Ottawa, Peeke might be a good fit here, but like the rest of the league they wouldn't take him for free with his contract. It's all situational based on the cap. Sens free up short-term cap at the expense of taking on long-term cap, Columbus leverages short-term cap to get out long-term cap.
swiftwin
★SUMMER.OF.STEVE★
- Jul 26, 2005
- 24,183
- 13,892
Dorion has to do what's best for the team right now. Does trading Joseph with a heavy sweetener to sign Pinto improve the team right now? I'm not so sure. Joseph is playing extremely well and is effective in a role we're light on right now (PKer, lots of speed). Greig is also looking very good in a 3C role when Norris comes back. Why would we trade a decent asset just to not improve? Also, what happens if we get a long term injury? We traded a hefty asset away we didn't need to. On the flip side, there's the risk that the bridge with Pinto is being burnt and a trade request could happen.
Pinto also has to do what's best for Pinto. Right now, he clearly believes getting a bigger contract now is the right move. On the flip side, the longer he waits, he's running the risk of losing his spot to Greig. He's also going to have a harder time to get up to NHL speed. He's also under some pressure to not miss the boat, especially if the team keeps playing well without him. He has to recognize that taking the 1x1 might be better for him in the long run.
Both sides seem to be digging in for the time being. Fortunately, there are lots of ways the circumstances can change quickly. If someone gets a long term injury. Or if another team eases off the sweetener demands.
NyQuil
Big F$&*in Q
I'm not sure I want a worse Gudbranson back on the team.
Adele Dazeem
Registered User
I agree that it would be much harder to move Joseph only because he has term, but surely Kubalik should be able to return a measley 4/5th round pick, which is below his actual value.
BondraTime
Registered User
The chances of him going unclaimed as a 2.5 million dollar player are high.
There’s are less than 10 teams that can afford his 2.5m league wide, very few would want/need to add him.
swiftwin
★SUMMER.OF.STEVE★
- Jul 26, 2005
- 24,183
- 13,892
Not if he's a pending UFA.
Any rebuilding team could easily put a claim on him, let him pad his stats on their top line, then flip him at the trade deadline for a 2nd/3rd round pick.
frightenedinmatenum2
Registered User
He isn't a 2.5M player under the current cap. Even if you disagree with that statement, there are probably less than 5 teams with 2.5M of cap and the spending budget to back it up. A chunk of those teams are rebuilding teams like PHI whose prerogative is to maximize assets, not to give them up to add a pending UFA 3rd liner. They aren't giving up a pick for Kubalik when they can get a better return leveraging that cap at the deadline as a dumping ground.
Kubalik is fine in a certain role, but people seem to think because he scored 30 goals years ago he is a top 6 forward. I highly doubt he is see that way around the league. It would not surprise me if Detroit shopped him in the summer when it was easier to dump players, and there were no takers. Smith, who is significantly better and more established as a top 6 forward went for a 3rd round pick back in June when teams actually had cap. That's how obscene the trade market is.
Kubalik almost certainly has negative value, which isn't a slight against him as a player. In 2023, it's not like 10 years ago where a player had to be an albatross to have negative value. Even good players aren't tradeable due to a lack of cap space and how valuable open cap space is as an asset.
To Philly
Brannstrom
Kubalik
2024 2nd
To Ottawa
Nick Seeler
We could sign Pinto and carry a 22 man roster.
Brannstrom
Kubalik
2024 2nd
To Ottawa
Nick Seeler
We could sign Pinto and carry a 22 man roster.
I don't think Philly has cap space for both of them. I like the idea of throwing in Columbus, though.
To Philly:
Brannstrom
To Columbus:
Kubalik
Philly 3rd
To Ottawa:
Peeke (25% retained, 2m cap hit)
Philly gets Branny for pretty much a 3rd. Columbus needs to dump a defenseman and get a useful forward and 3rd round pick out of it. We get a Branny replacement at the same price and open up room for Pinto.
Philly has 6.25 in LTIR available once they shift Ellis from IR to LTIR. They get a 2nd and two moveable assets at the TDL.
Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Joseph - Norris - Tarasenko
Smejkal - Pinto - Batherson
Kelly - Chartier - Kastelic
MacEwan
Chychrun - Chabot
Sanderson- Zub
Seeler - Hamonic
JBD
Forsberg / Korpisalo
Room to callup Greig, Klevin, Reinhart, Thomson, etc….
Joseph - Norris - Tarasenko
Smejkal - Pinto - Batherson
Kelly - Chartier - Kastelic
MacEwan
Chychrun - Chabot
Sanderson- Zub
Seeler - Hamonic
JBD
Forsberg / Korpisalo
Room to callup Greig, Klevin, Reinhart, Thomson, etc….
