Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[R2010]

 

[R2010]

If they stayed around, of course it would be viewed positively. It’s the job of the GM, not fans, to know whether trading for a player is likely to result in him staying. The package they traded for DBC would lead anyone to believe that he agreed to stay in Ottawa. That’s legitimately the bare minimum to that kind of a trade.

The Sens have a logjam at LD, so Chych was definitely window shopping for a name, and the fact he has ties to Ottawa which meant so much to Dorion, and to accelerate a rebuild to put a winner on ice now, to try and buy Dorion more time. Chychrun for that package, in a vacuum, is perfectly fine. He is/was valuable like that. With the Sens construction, and upcoming contract, it doesn’t make much sense, especially with hindsight.

Dorion NEEDED to win to even have a chance at staying around the league. He sent out 2+ draft worth of picks in his final year to try and accelerate that.

They trade for Fiala with an extension like the Kings? Makes tons of sense. Trade for DBC and don’t have a contract July 1st? That makes very little sense.

The Fiala trade is a perfect example of poor evaluation for the sens. Garrioch said they thought his contract demands were too high so that's why they were out. Instead they traded 7th overall for a one year rental. Meanwhile Fiala is outplaying his contract.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

No disrespect, but this is a bit of revisionist history.

The DBC and Chychrun were largely viewed positively and were seen as getting good younger players to help build the core.

They were viewed positively when they happened.

We can safely say that both trades ended up being disasters. We did not need either them, that is hard to deny with the benefit of hindsight.

Martian calling the Dadonov punishment a week ahead of time made him a 100% bonafide leaker.

I was very skeptical but that he ended up being right means he should be taken seriously for now.

 

[Big Muddy]

Get as many picks as you can at the TDL
Not like this core needs nor deserves immediate help anyway

We have two 1st rounders. Would be nice if we could manage to get a 3rd 1st round. Can't hurt.

What we need is Chabot and Brady to go to the gm and ask for better players for the second time.

That didn't work before. I hope Staois has a good, long term strategic plan, and if its truly a good plan, then they need to stick with it.

Admittedly, there could be nuance in what you are saying that I am not picking up on.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Calgary waives a guy that has more points or a better PPG than our entire 4th line and the current 3rd line center.

 

[scout20]

I hate this trade, but I’m here for the lols of instantly flipping Ian Cole instantly again.

I am not sure how you get another teams number one prospect who also happens to be a coveted Right shot D without paying a big price. (drafted 11th overall)
Willander (6-foot-1, 180 pounds) is a strong, mobile skater who impressed with his physical play, defensive intelligence and competitiveness. He helped Sweden win silver at the 2023 IIHF World Under-18 Championship in April with eight points (three goals, five assists) in seven games.
"The talent and passion are apparent," Canucks player development coach Mike Komisarek said. "The character as well."

 

[Burrowsaurus]

No disrespect, but this is a bit of revisionist history.

The DBC and Chychrun were largely viewed positively and were seen as getting good younger players to help build the core.

Yeah. Were fans. We like when the team acquires stars.

But the GM has to know what happens after that. A GM is judged based on hindsight. Actually everyone is judged based on hindsight. That’s why Dorion and DJ are currently unemployed

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Just get the RD.

Pay the price. Without the addition of a good RD, this core is gonna bust and Dorion left us with absolutely nothing in the pipeline.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

They were viewed positively when they happened.

We can safely say that both trades ended up being disasters. We did not need either them, that is hard to deny with the benefit of hindsight.


Martian calling the Dadonov punishment a week ahead of time made him a 100% bonafide leaker.

I was very skeptical but that he ended up being right means he should be taken seriously for now.

His last flurry of leaks were great. No doubt.

This one is about a player not a transaction really. So things can change

Just get the RD.

Pay the price. Without the addition of a good RD, this core is gonna bust and Dorion left us with absolutely nothing in the pipeline.

Some nice options in FA

 

[Icelevel]

If Ottawa doesn’t make the playoffs next year and has to give up our 1st because of the Dadonov trade we will have wasted 5 of the last 8 years of 1st round picks.

Thanks Dorion!

Can we fire him again?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The Fiala trade is a perfect example of poor evaluation for the sens. Garrioch said they thought his contract demands were too high so that's why they were out. Instead they traded 7th overall for a one year rental. Meanwhile Fiala is outplaying his contract.

They weren't in a position to sign a 7 year contract with signing bonuses and a NMC. The point of getting Debrincat was to get a 1 year rental to help the team compete for playoffs and to build excitement in the marketplace. He was the perfect asset because he had 2 years of team control, so they theoretically could rent him for 1 year and then flip him to recoup the 1st they gave up.

This is not just hindsight. This was my take the moment they traded for him. It's the exact same strategy Dorion used with Duchene (Turris was a sunk cost since they couldn't re-sign him and weren't going to sell him off while gunning for playoffs, give up a playoff 1st++ for Duchene for 1 year and then either keep him as an own rental in year 2 or trade him to get that playoff 1st++ back, which would have made the Turris to Duchene upgrade asset neutral).

In both situations, it blew up in Dorion's face. With Duchene, Dorion was able to get a good enough return at the TDL, but the pick he originally gave up ended up being a top 5 pick due to the collapse of the Senators, so the difference in value between the pick they got back and gave up was massive.

In Debrincat's situation, he played poorly relative to his career-norm, and unlike 99.9 percent of players, he didn't prioritize getting the most money possible in free agency, he only wanted to play for 1 team, even if that meant leave 10's of millions on the table. So Dorion did not come anywhere close to recouping the value.

Which isn't to say that Dorion didn't "intend to re-sign" Debrincat by offering him a 7-8 year 8M contract without front-loaded money, signing bonuses, and without a NMC. But there is no way the player is signing that and Dorion almost certainly knew it. It's all optics. Debrincat was always thought of as a rental, it just went horribly wrong when it was time to recoup value on what they gave up.

You could also just do basic math and see that they didn't have the 8M-9M it would take to keep him this season. Even Tarasenko+Kubalik only equals 7.5M, and that's for two players in a scenario where the Senators didn't even have the cap to pay those two 7.5M and sign Pinto or ice a roster with scratches. So 8M-9M for Debrincat, plus anotiher 750k+ for a warm body makes no sense mathematically. Dorion likely owned a calculator, so he knew this (although, sometimes I wonder).

Of course, the above is all just a guess based on pattern recognition and such - so maybe Dorion gave him an 8 year 9.5M contract with full signing bonuses and a NMC, and Melnyk's board was all abuot it, who knows.

 

[DueDiligence]

by those that were championing the cause.. By those who wanted the building filled. By those that wanted top dollar for team sale.

Others, those who viewed the deals as pure hockey deals.. who were not preoccupied by the media buffet at the CTC, or not wanting to anger Lord Dorion and his paranoia. And ensuring they have a seat on the team charter. And those not cheerleading to make sure TSN radio, TSN TV and Sportsnet TV had ratings..

they saw this differently..

Those deals were sales and marketing driven.. asses in seats, eyeballs on media, sell the team for an extra 100 M.

a 5' 7" winger whose plus minus was ridicules, who played on a bullshit team for the bulk of the 5 years he was there.. was never worth a #7 pick.. who is today a 6' 2" Dman who is quarterbacking Chicago's PP at age 19/20.

a soft, flyboy Dman who is often injured, does not put up Erik Karlsson offense, nor Chris Philips defense is not worth a #12. Nor is he worth the 5, 6 and 7 M roughly that the Sens will pay, only to sell him off for next to nothing.

Both Chicago and Arizona sent Christmas cards to the Sens.. As did Vegas for Stone

this team has been driven by CFOs and Media Relations way more than by hockey people.

Butts in seats and kissing Butts should be this team's Motto.

Now you are taking a extreme view based on results. Both Debrincat and Chychrun were and are still viewed as reasonably valuable assets.

 

[coladin]

They were viewed positively when they happened.

We can safely say that both trades ended up being disasters. We did not need either them, that is hard to deny with the benefit of hindsight.


Martian calling the Dadonov punishment a week ahead of time made him a 100% bonafide leaker.

I was very skeptical but that he ended up being right means he should be taken seriously for now.

Only a matter of time before he gets his buddy fired...

 

[DrEasy]

They were viewed positively when they happened.

We can safely say that both trades ended up being disasters. We did not need either them, that is hard to deny with the benefit of hindsight.


Martian calling the Dadonov punishment a week ahead of time made him a 100% bonafide leaker.

I was very skeptical but that he ended up being right means he should be taken seriously for now.

I mean, most of us here are fans, not scouts. How much did I know DBP before we acquired him? I'd seen him a couple of times when we faced him, I saw the highlight reels when he scored for Chicago, and that's it. Was I excited when we acquired him? You bet. But we added him and Giroux, we lost Formenton, C. Brown and Nick Paul and all of a sudden we went from a pesky grinding team to a skilled small team that didn't fit the coach's philosophy and whatever else the GM was trying to do. Now add the fact that he turned into a rental and the return for trading him was minuscule compared to the price of acquiring him, and here we are.

Same with Chychrun. On paper and based on very limited viewing, he sounded good. Then we realize he can't play RD, his defensive IQ is minimal, and we don't have a bunch of Zubs to pair up with him AND Chabot AND Sanderson, and we end up with this dysfunctional D group.

I would expect scouts and the GM to know that these acquisitions are poor fits. I feel that Dorion just acquired who he could, not who he necessarily needed.

 

[StoicSensFan]

Martian calling the Dadonov punishment a week ahead of time made him a 100% bonafide leaker.

I was very skeptical but that he ended up being right means he should be taken seriously for now.

@benjiv1 clears though

 

[HSF]

apparently no one wants Kubalik

Called it so long ago that the DBC trade was so bad

 

[bicboi64]

They weren't in a position to sign a 7 year contract with signing bonuses and a NMC. The point of getting Debrincat was to get a 1 year rental to help the team compete for playoffs and to build excitement in the marketplace. He was the perfect asset because he had 2 years of team control, so they theoretically could rent him for 1 year and then flip him to recoup the 1st they gave up.

Cat's salary that season was $9 million the season we had him.

You don't trade a 7th overall for a rental without being able to negotiate an extension with him.

 

[JackieDaytona]

So the boys are not heat?

 

[Very Stable Genius]

apparently no one wants Kubalik

Called it so long ago that the DBC trade was so bad

Don't worry, local hero Donovan Sebrango with a career-high 7pts in an AHL season will save the trade

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Can we fire him again?

I'd hire him just to fire him again

 

[Beech]

Now you are taking a extreme view based on results. Both Debrincat and Chychrun were and are still viewed as reasonably valuable assets.

by who?

It took forever to trade DBC, we got Kubalik back... and yes a first round, which may be fairly low.. a Boston first round (it will be in the 20's).. we gave up a possible Norris caliber player at #7.

and Chy.. did you not pay attention to his GM after the trade.. It was not exactly complimentary. There was a "don't let the door hit you on the way out" feel to it.

Way too high of a price for both. Moves that were desperation.

Moves have to be judged on:
cost to acquire
value in asset
cost/benefit to move on from

The Cat failed all 3. Chyc is thus far failing the first 2.

as for the CAT.. after tearing the league to shred in the first 10 games.. he is at 40 points in 44 games.. heading towards 75 points.. he is 44th in the league at this moment with 5 or 6 players below him, but with 2-4 games less played. he is 59th in points per game. Let old Stevie Y stew over that one for a while.

 

[HSF]

They weren't in a position to sign a 7 year contract with signing bonuses and a NMC. The point of getting Debrincat was to get a 1 year rental to help the team compete for playoffs and to build excitement in the marketplace. He was the perfect asset because he had 2 years of team control, so they theoretically could rent him for 1 year and then flip him to recoup the 1st they gave up.

This is not just hindsight. This was my take the moment they traded for him. It's the exact same strategy Dorion used with Duchene (Turris was a sunk cost since they couldn't re-sign him and weren't going to sell him off while gunning for playoffs, give up a playoff 1st++ for Duchene for 1 year and then either keep him as an own rental in year 2 or trade him to get that playoff 1st++ back, which would have made the Turris to Duchene upgrade asset neutral).

In both situations, it blew up in Dorion's face. With Duchene, Dorion was able to get a good enough return at the TDL, but the pick he originally gave up ended up being a top 5 pick due to the collapse of the Senators, so the difference in value between the pick they got back and gave up was massive.

In Debrincat's situation, he played poorly relative to his career-norm, and unlike 99.9 percent of players, he didn't prioritize getting the most money possible in free agency, he only wanted to play for 1 team, even if that meant leave 10's of millions on the table. So Dorion did not come anywhere close to recouping the value.

Which isn't to say that Dorion didn't "intend to re-sign" Debrincat by offering him a 7-8 year 8M contract without front-loaded money, signing bonuses, and without a NMC. But there is no way the player is signing that and Dorion almost certainly knew it. It's all optics. Debrincat was always thought of as a rental, it just went horribly wrong when it was time to recoup value on what they gave up.

You could also just do basic math and see that they didn't have the 8M-9M it would take to keep him this season. Even Tarasenko+Kubalik only equals 7.5M, and that's for two players in a scenario where the Senators didn't even have the cap to pay those two 7.5M and sign Pinto or ice a roster with scratches. So 8M-9M for Debrincat, plus anotiher 750k+ for a warm body makes no sense mathematically. Dorion likely owned a calculator, so he knew this (although, sometimes I wonder).

Of course, the above is all just a guess based on pattern recognition and such - so maybe Dorion gave him an 8 year 9.5M contract with full signing bonuses and a NMC, and Melnyk's board was all abuot it, who knows.

Dorion admitted he didnt even talk to DBC before trading for him

What a terrible manager....DBC did not want to be here

 

[HSF]

I actually think we might get a haul for Chych. This is a year to be a seller due to a lot of teams are in a mix and there seems to be a lot of buyers this year. In addition to that, there are barely any top 4 dmen on the market and especially at the cap hit that Chych has, you can get a lot for him before the deadline.

we won't get a haul for him

late 1st rounder and B level prospect or player

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Cat's salary that season was $9 million the season we had him.

You don't trade a 7th overall for a rental without being able to negotiate an extension with him.

1 year of salary wasn't an issue because they had the budget flexibility to fit him.

The issue was that if they traded for a player who was eligible for an extension, they would have had to give a NMC, 7-8 years of term, and signing bonuses. That was the issue.

They didn't trade the 7th overall for a 1 year rental. They traded the 7th overall for a player with 2 years of team control, with the intention to rent him for 1 year and then recoup assets on him at the end of the year by trading him to a team he would sign an extension with.

You're looking at trades made by a GM who knew he was auditioning to either keep his job or get another job, who was working for an ownership group whose priority was likely to maximize short-term success of the team in order to make it look as appealing as possible to buyers. The 7th overall pick contributing on the ELC 3-4 years from the time of that trade would have been irrelevant.

 

[Big Muddy]

He was the perfect asset because he had 2 years of team control, so they theoretically could rent him for 1 year and then flip him to recoup the 1st they gave up.

This was my take the moment they traded for him.

Using the "team control" term is ironic especially as it refers to the 2nd year, the QO year. Debrincat had to want to be here, and the team needed to be able to fit in a $9 m cap hit. He didn't want to be here ultimately, and Dorion rolled the dice. There didn't seem to be much control in the end, although I guess people can have different interpretations of the meaning of words and fight about it. LOL.

I think the Chychrun signing had a fairly obvious risk element as well. He was a LD that we wanted/hoped to play on the right side. There was some debate (I mentioned the risk of moving him to the right side) over that subject as I recall.

I think it's human nature for people to want to believe in something and there's a tendency to downplay the warning signals. Being viewed as a Debbie Downer is probably uncomfortable and could have an impact of muting or lessening the dissent (aka warning signals).

Oh well - its all part of being a Senators fan & our glorious history.