Speculation: Florida's pick - Watch thread - (Upon request, thread title change lol)

[Lazytrout]

Not quite 22.8% because you cannot just add them all up, plus they rounded a bit.

Actual number is 21.36% chance of one top-2 pick and 0.63% chance of two.

The tricky part is that the odds on the second ball differ depending on who won the first ball. I've done all the math and did a proper weighted average.

Thanks for the correction on that!

 

[holy]

I swear I tried that Tankathon simulator at least 100 times and never got us winning once.

Bro you are cursed!!! We must ban this man’s username from this forum if we are ever to see better days!

 

[themilosh]

I do too, but I think Florida is almost as bad.

i agree - the minute they made that trade with Calgary their pick became infinitely more valuable. you can't trade key pieces and expect them to work out in other systems. it throws the entire dynamic off for at least a year or two.

Why would they accept that? Pick will likely be around where Knight was drafted and goaltending was a pressing need.

if their pick was a top 5, I'd pull the trigger on giving it back to them for Knight.

Depends how the sim was obtained.

If it was made without resetting between each try, it skews the results.

I just did it now without resetting and got FLA’s pick 1st and the Habs’ pick 2nd. Took me three tries.

what do you mean? i press it a few times and I got Habs 1-2.. just luck of the draw.

 

[themilosh]

Daheck?

We def keep that pick and add to our offense

absolutely take Knight. it guarantees we have a starting (possible franchise goalie) in 2 years when we're a contender. if by that time Dobes becomes a star, we have incredible trade value to pick up an equally great D man.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

if their pick was a top 5, I'd pull the trigger on giving it back to them for Knight.


what do you mean? i press it a few times and I got Habs 1-2.. just luck of the draw.

The latter suggestion maps to a hefty price in a strong draft. There could be a 1C available at position, where the lower of Habs and Cats first rounders may be enough to snag Knight... which could still be an overpayment.

 

[themilosh]

0.63% chance, so about 158 tries on average.

i pressed it more than 158 times last year.. lol

 

[BehindTheTimes]

absolutely take Knight. it guarantees we have a starting (possible franchise goalie) in 2 years when we're a contender. if by that time Dobes becomes a star, we have incredible trade value to pick up an equally great D man.

Goalies don’t have great trade value. There’s no way I’m trading the pick for knight. Not a damn chance.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Goalies don’t have great trade value. There’s no way I’m trading the pick for knight. Not a damn chance.

Agreed. I'd move Mailloux and a third or Harris and a second for Knight. I would not give up the lottery chance for a goalie drafted (and rated) outside the top 10.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Why are we talking about Knight? There's no reason for the Panthers to move him.

 

[Legend123]

absolutely take Knight. it guarantees we have a starting (possible franchise goalie) in 2 years when we're a contender. if by that time Dobes becomes a star, we have incredible trade value to pick up an equally great D man.

Thank God you are not the GM

Ooof

 

[Lazytrout]

Why are we talking about Knight? There's no reason for the Panthers to move him.

Honestly it make no sense for Florida and would push back their window for a couple years at least.

Nevermind that we really should not trade that pick until AFTER the lottery.

 

[Galchenyuk15]

Agreed. I'd move Mailloux and a third or Harris and a second for Knight. I would not give up the lottery chance for a goalie drafted (and rated) outside the top 10.

Knight is probably the better goalie prospect since Vasilevsky. I would not give a lottery pick for Knight but your trade proposal would be rejected without thinking. If the Florida GM do this, he will loose his job before the next christmas! If we trade Price for a package like that at the time the city will be burning now; Knight is not Price but still a hell of a goalie and the last thing you thought is trading him for a package like that!

Why are we talking about Knight? There's no reason for the Panthers to move him.

Agreed! One of the only hope the Panthers can do something good in the future because the way the GM manage is asset; he loses like 10 players in the summer and give almost all his draft picks! If Knight doesn't become what he suppose to do, they will be in trouble in mid term!

 

[themilosh]

Agreed. I'd move Mailloux and a third or Harris and a second for Knight. I would not give up the lottery chance for a goalie drafted (and rated) outside the top 10.

Well, ideally id take that but FLA would NEVER agree. Yeah trade Knight fir an unproven D man and a 3rd, and ride Bobrovski to the promise land?
Cmon guys, let's be realistic here.
Outside of top 2 (Bedard, Fantilli), there are decent picks and possible gems.. but why not accept a thoroughbred Goalie ready to step in, than a #6 oa prospect who "might" be amazing in 3-4 years.

 

[Scriptor]

At some point I wonder if some team picking at the top (3-6?) is tempted to trade down for the 2x hab picks at the draft. We can start imagining habs actually targeting a few guys right up there… Gee I sure hope nothing happens to their other knees…

Say MON gets 10th OA and 11th OA, do you trade your two first round picks and your 2nd round pick for a top-5 pick since, by all accounts, we'd be solving our problems at C with a pick in the top-5, maybe reuniting The Slovak Line of Slafkovsky - Dvorsky - Mesar?

 

[admiralcadillac]

We’re probably in the market for a goalie but they’re available in the 30 range. If anything you take one with the pick obtained at the deadline, but not for one of the lottery picks.

 

[Notabaguette]

It looks like they will be a top 10 pick. Why they replaced the coach is beyond me.

 

[Goldenhands]

Right now we have the same odds as Columbus, 3rd worst team, to land Bedard with our combined 1st rounders.

 

[Canad13ns]

I played tankathon 38 times and got Montreal 1st or 2nd pick on 6 of 38 spins. I stopped at this last one because it was my favourite

 

[HuGort]

They have 22.8% at a top 2 pick so almost 1 in 4 or 4.6 of 20.

I think if we slide to 6th? Florida 7th, we have best odds for top pick

 

[Legend123]

I played tankathon 38 times and got Montreal 1st or 2nd pick on 6 of 38 spins. I stopped at this last one because it was my favourite View attachment 626691

thats my 2nd favorite.

My favorite is winning 1OA with FLA's pick and then 2nd with ours.

Watch HF crash and burn and moan for an eternity over the fact we got Bedard from freakin Chiarot

 

[WeThreeKings]

Say MON gets 10th OA and 11th OA, do you trade your two first round picks and your 2nd round pick for a top-5 pick since, by all accounts, we'd be solving our problems at C with a pick in the top-5, maybe reuniting The Slovak Line of Slafkovsky - Dvorsky - Mesar?

Dvorsky is likely available at 10, he's had a very slow start to the year.

 

[Lshap]

thats my 2nd favorite.

My favorite is winning 1OA with FLA's pick and then 2nd with ours.

Watch HF crash and burn and moan for an eternity over the fact we got Bedard from freakin Chiarot

If Florida's pick turns into a 1st or 2ndOA, we're building a statue of Ben Chiarot outside the Bell Centre.

 

[Legend123]

If Florida's pick turns into a 1st or 2ndOA, we're building a statue of Ben Chiarot outside the Bell Centre.

with a smirky face

 

[Rob Sense]

I played tankathon 38 times and got Montreal 1st or 2nd pick on 6 of 38 spins. I stopped at this last one because it was my favourite View attachment 626691

I prefer the scenario where Florida's pick is 1st and ours is 2nd.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

If Florida's pick turns into a 1st or 2ndOA, we're building a statue of Ben Chiarot outside the Bell Centre.

If that ‘miracle’ does transpire, it should be an ode to the three wise men bearing gifts: Chiarot, the the Idiot Savant who signed him and Hughes who traded him.