Speculation: Florida's pick - Watch thread - (Upon request, thread title change lol)

[Sterling Archer]

I’ll just leave this here and thank Chiarot for being this generations Rivet, Zito for being Mike Milbury and Hughes for being Sam Pollock.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

That’s not how odds work. You can’t combine them.

Yes it does, because it's a 100% divided among teams. If you gain another team's lotto pick, you gain their share of the 100%, raising your own percentage.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I’ll just leave this here and thank Chiarot for being this generations Rivet, Zito for being Mike Milbury and Hughes for being Sam Pollock.
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imagine that at the bell center

 

[BLONG7]

I’ll just leave this here and thank Chiarot for being this generations Rivet, Zito for being Mike Milbury and Hughes for being Sam Pollock.
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If this was to happen..............and a big if, sweet mother of god, this board would explode.....we have been so starved for a good hockey TEAM now for 30 years......
Laying it all on the goalies has not worked.............time for the new guys to build a real TEAM.

 

[Destopcorner]

That’s not how odds work. You can’t combine them.

Say you have 5% chance at a price and your wife also does. What are your house odds of winning?

 

[BaseballCoach]

That’s not how odds work. You can’t combine them.

They are additive for the first pick (6.5% Montreal +5.0% Florida), and almost additive for the second pick.

Say you have 5% chance at a price and your wife also does. What are your house odds of winning?

If you're not sure, change the 5% to 50% and reply.

I’ll just leave this here and thank Chiarot for being this generations Rivet, Zito for being Mike Milbury and Hughes for being Sam Pollock.
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I don't know man. Do you really think Ty Smilanic will turn out as well as Josh Gorges did?

 

[_vivelequebec_]

Obviously 1-2 is the dream, but I’d be more than happy with something like 6-12. Then we get a late 1st round at the trade deadline, we pick Hrabal and we sign Dubois the next summer.

 

[LaP]

As of today we have two lotery picks able to win the 1st overall pick.

But hey according to a non insignificant part of this board we should have signed Chiarot last year and we should not sell this year.

 

[LaP]

That’s not how odds work. You can’t combine them.

I've done my engineering stats and prob over 25 years ago so i might be wrong (brain does age like the rest of the body) but i think in a case like the lottery pick you add the chances.

If there was only four teams with an equal chance to win the 1st overall pick they would have 25% chances to win the 1st overall pick and if you owned two of those pick you would have 50% chance to win the 1st overall.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

As of today we have two lotery picks able to win the 1st overall pick.

But hey according to a non insignificant part of this board we should have signed Chiarot last year and we should not sell this year.

One of those kept believing that because we were +2/,500 at thanksgiving and close to a playoff spot, it meant we'd be there the whole season. Habs wouldn't be sellers, ownership would never allow two tank years in a row, we'd go after UFAs, blah blah blah.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I’ll just leave this here and thank Chiarot for being this generations Rivet, Zito for being Mike Milbury and Hughes for being Sam Pollock.
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If this ever happens, wouldn't this have to be considered the greatest trade of all time regardless of what becomes of both players?

 

[LaP]

If this ever happens, wouldn't this have to be considered the greatest trade of all time regardless of what becomes of both players?

If we draft 1st overall because of Florida this trade will be remembered for a long long time. People will still talk about it in 20 years.

 

[CAUFIELD]

I've done my engineering stats and prob over 25 years ago so i might be wrong (brain does age like the rest of the body) but i think in a case like the lottery pick you add the chances.

If there was only four teams with an equal chance to win the 1st overall pick they would have 25% chances to win the 1st overall pick and if you owned two of those pick you would have 50% chance to win the 1st overall.

ex 5% + 5% = 10%

Le numérateur s’additionne mais le dénominateur reste le même . So yes if we have 2 top 10 lottery picks, the odds add up.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I've done my engineering stats and prob over 25 years ago so i might be wrong (brain does age like the rest of the body) but i think in a case like the lottery pick you add the chances.

If there was only four teams with an equal chance to win the 1st overall pick they would have 25% chances to win the 1st overall pick and if you owned two of those pick you would have 50% chance to win the 1st overall.

I think you’re right. I was conflating this the coin toss odds with draft odds. Where most people think they he odds of flipping change over a sequence but every flip is still 50/50.

 

[Scriptor]

The latter suggestion maps to a hefty price in a strong draft. There could be a 1C available at position, where the lower of Habs and Cats first rounders may be enough to snag Knight... which could still be an overpayment.

If MON had the opportunity of picking one of Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson and, with the FLA pick, Dvorsky, I'd be all over picking two potential game-altering Cs.

You never have too many Cs as they can either play wing or become trade chips for missing pieces.

 

[jackeymoon]

Even if FLAs 1st is a top 5 pick the Chiarot trade should go down as one of the most lopsided in history. We traded a bottom pair D man for a Top 5 pick in a deep draft LMFAO

 

[David Suzuki]

But hey according to a non insignificant part of this board we should have signed Chiarot last year and we should not sell this year.

We should have signed him as a UFA and kept doing the trade for a first trick until someone catches on

 

[Rob Sense]

Other than having 1st and 2nd pick...the next best scenario is that the worst of the two (currently Florida) wins the lottery and ours is 5-6. That would be memorable.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Man, What if NEWjersey just got the true #1 OV.. the Dman they drafted 2nd overall. He looks GOOD so far. Better than Slaf

 

[Schooner Guy]

Man, What if NEWjersey just got the true #1 OV.. the Dman they drafted 2nd overall. He looks GOOD so far. Better than Slaf

Are you really comparing Nemec's play at WJC vs Slaf's play in the NHL?

They actually both looked pretty damn awesome in the Olympics and Worlds.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Are you really comparing Nemec's play at WJC vs Slaf's play in the NHL?

They actually both looked pretty damn awesome in the Olympics and Worlds.

OOps wrong DMAN and I was thinking Jiricek..

 

[General Fanager]

Id be happy with 2 top 10 picks, anything better than that is a bonus

 

[HuGort]

Showed standings in first intermission. Florida 9 points out of last playoff spot. With 3 teams ahead of them. Going to be tough for them to make playoffs. Plus, only teams they’re close to (Buffalo,Detroit) both have 3 games in hand.

 

[ole ole]

If MON had the opportunity of picking one of Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson and, with the FLA pick, Dvorsky, I'd be all over picking two potential game-altering Cs.

You never have too many Cs as they can either play wing or become trade chips for missing pieces.

I f we pick 3rd i hope we take Michkov as Bedard/Fantilli will be gone.

 

[Jabba11]

I f we pick 3rd i hope we take Michkov as Bedard/Fantilli will be gone.

Can't go wrong with Carlsson or Michkov. I have Michkov ahead but would be happy with Carlsson. In terms of talent, I think Michkov is only behind Bedard.