Speculation: Florida's pick - Watch thread - (Upon request, thread title change lol)

[themilosh]

Loving this sim.

 

[Runner77]

Loving this sim. View attachment 626448

Depends how the sim was obtained.

If it was made without resetting between each try, it skews the results.

I just did it now without resetting and got FLA’s pick 1st and the Habs’ pick 2nd. Took me three tries.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Got this on my very first try of the season, minutes ago, I shit you not:

 

[HuGort]

20.275.000 in cap room this summer without making any deals, thanks to expiring contracts to Dadonov,Byron,Drouin,Monahan, only free agents to sign are Harris and Caufield, should have millions left in cap room after giving Caufield a Suzuki type deal, Harris a couple of Million?, without Monahan that leaves about 10 million , so what do you give Monahan and at what term? also do the habs take on a contract for 1 more season to get more picks/prospects?, this upcoming offseason will be interesting in Habsland

I think Habs trade at deadline. Be surprised Anderson and Dvorak still here by March 4th.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I still think the Habs will finish bottom 5. The team is playing over their heads right now with 4 rookie D. It's been a fun team to follow but the wins and OT points will get harder to come by in the 2nd half for such a young squad.

Florida missing the playoffs would be an extreme bonus if it happens.

I do too, but I think Florida is almost as bad.

 

[salbutera]

You'd think their goaltendending tandem should be better than ours.

I would offer Fla back its 1st rounder once trade freeze ends, in exchange for Knight…

 

[The Great Weal]

I would offer Fla back its 1st rounder once trade freeze ends, in exchange for Knight…

Why would they accept that? Pick will likely be around where Knight was drafted and goaltending was a pressing need.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Why would they accept that? Pick will likely be around where Knight was drafted and goaltending was a pressing need.

Why would do this, god no.

 

[RealityHurts]

I would offer Fla back its 1st rounder once trade freeze ends, in exchange for Knight…

I don't think that I'd do that. It is so easy to find a decent goaltender in the market. No joke.

 

[salbutera]

I don't think that I'd do that. It is so easy to find a decent goaltender in the market. No joke.

Knight has the potential to be a franchise goalie

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

We need a goalie and I've toyed around with the idea of picking a goalie high to mid just to steel man myself and others' reluctance to do that.

Still I don't think it's wise. Unless you're sure you're getting like a f***ing Hasek. I like our prospects a LOT and I think potentially we could ice a Cup contender with what we have in the farm. Even still, we all know from experience that you can never really be 100%. So stick with D and Forwards with the high picks and lets have a jaw dropping farm for once in our lives. Goalies can always be had and found in later rounds.

 

[Rob Sense]

Depends how the sim was obtained.

If it was made without resetting between each try, it skews the results.

I just did it now without resetting and got FLA’s pick 1st and the Habs’ pick 2nd. Took me three tries.

it happens after a few dozen tries...

 

[HuGort]

I would probably trade pick back to them for Knight. I don't want to take anybody. A top 10 pick too much for Chiarot.

 

[Legend123]

I would probably trade pick back to them for Knight. I don't want to take anybody. A top 10 pick too much for Chiarot.

Daheck?

We def keep that pick and add to our offense

 

[BaseballCoach]

it happens after a few dozen tries...View attachment 626517

0.63% chance, so about 158 tries on average.

 

[Legend123]

0.63% chance, so about 158 tries on average.

i actually got it twice in a span of like 30 times. The luck sometimes is all we need

 

[Sterling Archer]

Bedard + Michkov - yes please

Bedard and Fantilli would be like drafting McDavid and Drai or Syd and Malkin in the same year.

 

[the]

I swear I tried that Tankathon simulator at least 100 times and never got us winning once.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I swear I tried that Tankathon simulator at least 100 times and never got us winning once.

2 in 17 for Montreal to get 1st or 2nd,
2 in 20 for Florida to get first or 2nd, and
1 in 158 for both.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I would offer Fla back its 1st rounder once trade freeze ends, in exchange for Knight…

I would not.

Florida needs D-men.

Trade them Mailloux and a 3rd or Harris and a 2nd.

 

[calder candidate]

I would not.

Florida needs D-men.

Trade them Mailloux and a 3rd or Harris and a 2nd.

So your are telling me there is a chance!

 

[Rob Sense]

2 in 17 for Montreal to get 1st or 2nd,
2 in 20 for Florida to get first or 2nd, and
1 in 158 for both.

So 4 in 37 that we get either 1st or 2nd...that is better than 10%

 

[Lazytrout]

So 4 in 37 that we get either 1st or 2nd...that is better than 10%

They have 22.8% at a top 2 pick so almost 1 in 4 or 4.6 of 20.

 

[BaseballCoach]

So 4 in 37 that we get either 1st or 2nd...that is better than 10%

Actually it's 4 in about 18.5.

Right now there is a 21.36% chance of getting one top-2 pick plus a 0.63% chance of getting both.

 

[BaseballCoach]

They have 22.8% at a top 2 pick so almost 1 in 4 or 4.6 of 20.

Not quite 22.8% because you cannot just add them all up, plus they rounded a bit.

Actual number is 21.36% chance of one top-2 pick and 0.63% chance of two.

The tricky part is that the odds on the second ball differ depending on who won the first ball. I've done all the math and did a proper weighted average.