Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[Nucker101]

The odds of an actual NHL player blowing up are higher than the odds of some random 2nd rounder hitting. Thinking the pick has more upside is a fallacy. The odds that a Lafreniere or Newhook blows up to be a 70-point guy are *far* higher than the odds that pick #50 overall hits as a core player. Like, not even close.

I mean, hell. We built the entire WCE with players that you guys would have been arguing we should have passed on to demand magic beans instead.

This never changes. It's the same mentality that had like 70% of this board wanting to take a 2nd round pick for Ryan Kesler when Philly gave him an offer sheet.

Why is Laf being equated to a #50 overall pick in this argument? I don’t believe that’s what his trade value is around the league.

If we’re talking about a Horvat trade, I’d assume we’re talking about 1st round picks and prospects of equivalent value which interest me more than guys like Newhook.

And again, picks/prospects as trade currency are gold. You even say it yourself, everyone values mystery boxes.

 

[MS]

Pitseleh nailed it. Your “boat” is likely a canoe.

More likely to get a yacht by offereing a mystery box than a canoe.


You’re essentially shooting for players good teams don’t want. I’d prefer picks 100% because they’re more flexible.

I bet if Pittsburgh had it to do again they’d take a second pick over, established nhl Dman Ty Smith.

Except everything you're saying here is wrong. It's the sort of thing that sounds correct, but it isn't.

The odds a 2nd round pick hits as a 'core' NHL player are 10-15%, and the odds of getting a superstar are basically zero.

The odds that an established 21-23 y/o NHL player like a Lafreniere or Newhook or whatever does a Naslund/Bertuzzi/Fiala/Thompson (or what the Sedins and Kesler did after they were perceived as 'disappointing' young players at this age) are far higher than that #2 pick hitting.

You're more likely to get a yacht, and you're guaranteed to have the boat.

 

[Nucker101]

Except everything you're saying here is wrong. It's the sort of thing that sounds correct, but it isn't.

The odds a 2nd round pick hits as a 'core' NHL player are 10-15%, and the odds of getting a superstar are basically zero.

The odds that an established 21-23 y/o NHL player like a Lafreniere or Newhook or whatever does a Naslund/Bertuzzi/Fiala/Thompson (or what the Sedins and Kesler did after they were perceived as 'disappointing' young players at this age) are far higher than that #2 pick hitting.

You're more likely to get a yacht, and you're guaranteed to have the boat.

Is this based on actual data? I’d love to see a list of every young player traded in recent years and see how many turned out to be high end players compared to players drafted in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Vector]

Is this based on actual data? I’d love to see a list of every young player traded in recent years and see how many turned out to be high end players compared to players drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Give me a couple of days and I'll see what I can do. Before I do, I will say you are overwhelmingly likelier to be better off trading for the young NHL player over taking a draft pick. Especially because the picks you acquire in these trades are not high in their rounds.

 

[4Twenty]

Appreciate the addition of Thompson and Fiala. Glad we got something that wasn’t 4 decades ago like snazzy and bert.

Yes the 90’s are 4 decades ago.

Give me a couple of days and I'll see what I can do. Before I do, I will say you are overwhelmingly likelier to be better off trading for the young NHL player over taking a draft pick. Especially because the picks you acquire in these trades are not high in their rounds.

Could you also analyze established nhlers acquired for 2nd picks in and around the draft?

 

[Vector]

Appreciate the addition of Thompson and Fiala. Glad we got something that wasn’t 4 decades ago like snazzy and bert.

Yes the 90’s are 4 decades ago.


Could you also analyze established nhlers acquired for 2nd picks in and around the draft?

Are you thinking of someone like Arvidsson? How would I break down something like the OEL trade? What's the timeframe I'm working with here?

I might look into it if I can get through the other parameters relatively quickly.

 

[credulous]

I mean, of course, you take the draft picks if the other offers on a player are garbage. And the team did do this with the Hamonic-Dermott trade where they used the pick as currency (and of course people FREAKED OUT about the team 'bleeding a pick' there).

In terms of value, picks are fool's gold. Yeah, maybe you'll be able to flip that fool's gold to someone else. But probably not.

A #25 overall first round pick has maybe a 30% chance of being an NHL player and maybe a 10-15% chance of being an actual core player that moves the needle.

you're not wrong that people overvalue draft picks but i think something missing from this discussion is that if you look at the 'star' players around the league the overwhelming majority of them were drafted by the teams they play for (or signed as free agents, if they've been around a while). it's pretty rare that a player is picked, traded and then develops into a star. teams are pretty good overall at identifying talent early and try really hard to hang onto it

teams have a hard time finding top of the lineup talent if they don't draft a lot of players and get a lot of chances at it

 

[Nucker101]

We’re essentially arguing safe lower variance assets vs risky high variance assets but the counter argument being made is that the safer assets also present similar needle moving upside with a similar or better % of hitting it which is where the disagreement is.

I’d also mention that young nhl centers and dmen that actually posses star player upside don’t get moved. Wingers I could see. So I suspect @Vector ‘s list will include more wingers than centers and dmen

 

[racerjoe]

We’re essentially arguing safe lower variance assets vs risky high variance assets but the counter argument being made is that the safer assets also present similar needle moving upside with a similar or better % of hitting it which is where the disagreement is.

I’d also mention that young nhl centers and dmen that actually posses star player upside don’t get moved. Wingers I could see. So I suspect @Vector ‘s list will include more wingers than centers and dmen

I think it probably really depends on what you are calling a star, and what you are calling a young player traded. For instance I have different expectations for trading a guy like Studnicka and that being a success vs say trading for Newhook Laff or players that I would think we have a chance at getting back in a Horvat trade.

 

[Canucker]

Is this based on actual data? I’d love to see a list of every young player traded in recent years and see how many turned out to be high end players compared to players drafted in the first 2 rounds.

I would think in general it’s probably pretty close to correct, but I think some organizations do better than others (ie ours). I’d have more faith in obtaining draft picks if we had a better draft/development record…but even the best teams would be only marginally better than the worst teams. One case that did not turn out better was trading to acquire Sven Baertschi for a 2nd rounder that turned into Rasmus Andersen.

 

[me2]

I think it probably really depends on what you are calling a star, and what you are calling a young player traded. For instance I have different expectations for trading a guy like Studnicka and that being a success vs say trading for Newhook Laff or players that I would think we have a chance at getting back in a Horvat trade.

Success for studnicka would be a player above what's available for free. Ie Joshua or Motte.

 

[Vector]

So far, I’m choosing to organize players into four categories: impact, NHLer, fringe, and bust.

I don’t intend to organize by position.

I’m going back as far as the 2010 draft. Using the first two rounds from each draft. 1st is divided into lots of 5. 2nd will be lots of 10. The 33rd pick should be more valuable than the 60th.

I haven’t determined what classifies as a young player. There’s age, RFA status, and games played as factors.

I’ll be working on the draft side first then the trades.

 

[credulous]

i don't want to steal vector's thunder, but here's some drafted/traded/free agent data. i'm excluding players signed as ufas after already establishing themselves but am including free agents who were signed as fringe/unknown players who later broke out. i'm also only including stars/potential stars because the bottom of nhl lineups churn constantly and i don't think it's controversial to say you shouldn't be giving up assets for those kinds of players. i didn't put too much thought into who i included as a 'star' so if you want to argue i missed people or should exclude people that's totally fine but let's not get distracted by my choices. i tried to err on the side of inclusion so it can't be argued i'm cherry picking players

anaheim
troy terry (draft)
trevor zegras (draft)
mason mctavish (draft)
cam fowler (draft)
john gibson (draft)

basically zero important players that weren't signed as free agents or drafted directly by the ducks

calgary
jonathan huberdeau (trade)
andrew mangiapane (draft)
mikael backlund (draft)
elias lindholm (trade)
noah hanifin (trade)
rasmus andersson (draft)
mackenzie weegar (draft)

huberdeau and weegar were of course part of the tkachuk deal. lindholm and hanifin were both established nhlers who were swapped for dougie hamilton (and michael ferland) who was himself acquired for a first and 2 seconds

edmonton
connor mcdavid (draft)
leon draisaitl (draft)
ryan nugent-hopkins (draft)
darnell nurse (draft)

the oilers only have a single player on their roster they acquired in a trade (warren foegle, who sucks)

los angeles
anze kopitar (draft)
kevin fiala (trade)
adrian kempe (draft)
alex iaffalo (signed)
trevor moore (trade)
arthur kaliyev (draft)
gabe vilardi (draft)
drew doughty (draft)
matt roy (draft)
sean walker (signed)
sean durzi (trade)

fiala was acquired at a cost of one of the best prospects in the game AND a first round pick. iaffalo and walker were signed as undrafted free agents. trevor moore and sean durzi were acquired (separately) from the maple leafs organizations but both were throw ins in bigger deals and neither played nhl games prior to the kings

san jose sharks
tomas hertl (draft)
logan couture (draft)
timo meier (draft)
kevin labanc (draft)
erik karlsson (trade)
mario ferraro (draft)

karlsson was of course a blockbuster trade with the senators involving multiple picks and prospects. the sharks also acquired luke kunin in a trade but he's bad

seattle

i don't really know how to evaluate expansion draft picks so i'm not going to do seattle except to note their best player (matt beniers) was a draft pick

vancouver

also not doing vancouver. we should all be familiar with them right?

las vegas
mark stone (trade)
jack eichel (trade)
shea theodore (trade)
nic hague (draft)
logan thompson (signed)

another hard to evaluate team but stone and eichel were acquired for packages of picks and top prospects (brannstrom, tuch, krebs). theodore was a weird expansion draft thing. logan thompson was an undrafted free agent

arizona
clayton keller (draft)
nick schmaltz (trade)
lawson crouse (trade)
mattias maccelli (draft)
jakob chychrun (draft)
karol vejmelka (signed)

nick schmaltz isn't that good but was acquired for dylan strome and brandon perlini. lawson crouse was the bribe florida used to get arizona to take dave bolland's contract. vejmelka was a nashville pick that went unsigned and was signed out of europe

chicago
jonathon toews (draft)
patrick kane (draft)
seth jones (trade)

what a bad team. anyways, seth jones was a blockbuster involving multiple picks and young prospects. both the sillinger and jiricek picks were part of this deal

colorado
mikko rantanen (draft)
nathan mackinnon (draft)
gabriel landeskog (draft)
valeri nichushkin (signed)
artturi lehkonen (trade)
cale makar (draft)
samuel girard (trade)
devon toews (trade)
bowen byram (draft)

this is probably the archetypical "built through trades" team but lehkonen is stretching the definition of star and girard was part of a huge package of picks and players they got for duchense. nichushkin was salvaged as a free agent from dallas. devon toews of course is the example of you can trade for good young players

dallas
tyler seguin (trade)
jamie benn (draft)
jason robertson (draft)
roope hintz (draft)
mason marchement (signed) ***
wyatt johnston (draft)
ty dellandrea (draft)
miro heiskanen (draft)
esa lindell (draft)
nils lundkvist (trade)
jake oettinger (draft)

tyler seguin was acquired for canucks superstar loui eriksson somewhere back in prehistory. nils lundkvist cost a late first. i included mason marchement because i'm sure people would be mad if i didn't but he's just a bog standard free agent signing in my opinion

minnesota
kirill kaprizov (draft)
joel eriksson ek (draft)
jordan greenway (draft)
jonas brodin (draft)
matt dumba (draft)
calen addison (trade)

addison was part of the zucker deal (along with the pick they used to acquire future member of this list carson lambos!)

nashville
filip forsberg (trade)
ryan johansen (trade)
tanner jeannot (signed)
roman josi (draft)
mattias ekholm (draft)
alex carrier (draft)
juuse saaros (draft)

forsberg was acquired in the most hilariously lopsided trade (for martin erat) and ryan johansen was the return for seth jones. tanner jeannot is not good but was an undrafted free agent

st louis
brayden schenn (trade)
pavel buchnevich (trade)
jordan kyrou (draft)
robert thomas (draft)
ivan barbashev (draft)
justin faulk (trade)
colton parayko (draft)

schenn cost them two firsts and jori lehtera and pavel buchnevich was a steal only costing them a 2nd and sammy blais. i have no idea what was going on with the faulk trade. maybe it was a cap dump? maybe carolina really like joel edmundson?

winnipeg
kyle conner (draft)
mark scheifele (draft)
pierre-luc dubois (trade)
cole perfetti (draft)
josh morrissey (draft)
neal pionk (trade)
connor hellebuyck (draft)

pld was swapped for fellow underperforming youngster patrick laine and neal pionk was the return for trouba from the rangers (along with the pick that would become ville heinola)

 

[4Twenty]

It’s not just about using the picks to draft.

It’s about acquiring picks that you could parlay into the players you want and not taking the NHL established asset a cup contender deems expendable for a rental.

 

[canuckking1]

Rick just said Canucks are having trouble moving even Garland's contract.

Yikes

 

[4Twenty]

Rick just said Canucks are having trouble moving even Garland's contract.

Yikes

Flat track pony with the size and shot of a bantam rep player with 3 more years at $5m is not desirable.

If the 2nd and 3rd rumour from last TDL was dismissed by management that’s almost as bad as the 3 year extension to Boeser.

 

[dez]

Rick just said Canucks are having trouble moving even Garland's contract.

Yikes

Surprising no one wants a 3rd line 5'5 winger making 5 mill.

 

[TruGr1t]

Rick just said Canucks are having trouble moving even Garland's contract.

Yikes

The entire league knows the Canucks have wholly mismanaged their cap situation. Nobody will be lining up to bail them out to obtain some mediocre players from a bad team with possible locker-room issues.

Miller is probably completely unmoveable even if they wanted to at this point.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Rick just said Canucks are having trouble moving even Garland's contract.

Yikes

Shocker.

Should be "Canucks are having trouble moving Fill in the blank's contract"

 

[Vector]

Maybe post the link.



He says that all large contracts are difficult to move. They’ve been trying to make trades for months but with the current landscape no one has room.

 

[vancityluongo]

i think there's been a lot of doubt casted on "young nhl players" because the previous group considered vey, granlund, sbisa, baertschi, boucher, etc. to be that.

guys like laf, kakko, puljujarvi, kotkaniemi, etc. are different from those guys, who were all mid-round or worse tweeners who couldn't establish themselves as nhl'ers. broadly speaking, you're lucky to get a pick for that calibre of player and it's worth "cashing out"

former top-5 picks that are already role player nhl'ers before age 20 and simply "disappointing" relative to expectations (but would be fan favorites if they were 7th round picks) are definitely worth something, even if they're still just role players at 22/23.

of course, erik gudbranson also fits that mold, and well, yeah. luke schenn is maybe the more palatable base case?

 

[Vector]

 

[Vector]

@credulous No worries! I probably would have eventually done the same exercise you just did. We’re kind looking at different things since I’m going by recent historical percentages to see what has the highest chance of landing certain types of players.

 

[credulous]

@credulous No worries! I probably would have eventually done the same exercise you just did. We’re kind looking at different things since I’m going by recent historical percentages to see what has the highest chance of landing certain types of players.

yeah i'm less interested in the value of a draft pick and more interested in how winning teams are built. even if draft picks have very low hit rates if they're the only feasible way to get top end talent then they are still mega valuable in my opinion

 

[Peen]

Maybe post the link.



He says that all large contracts are difficult to move. They’ve been trying to make trades for months but with the current landscape no one has room.

That’s their own fault. They can’t use that as an excuse. it’s one thing to understand the difficulty of the situation that they came into; however, if they actively make their position worse, they can only blame themselves.