Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[Just A Bit Outside]

Maybe post the link.



He says that all large contracts are difficult to move. They’ve been trying to make trades for months but with the current landscape no one has room.

No shit.

Everyone and their dog knew it was going to be a flat cap for a couple years.

That's why they need to do shit by last deadline. Moving Miller alone would have been massive.

 

[Vector]

yeah i'm less interested in the value of a draft pick and more interested in how winning teams are built. even if draft picks have very low hit rates if they're the only feasible way to get top end talent then they are still mega valuable in my opinion

I look at it as there’s two competing view points on how to utilize assets and what their value should be. By looking deeper at it, we should have a good idea if there’s a misconception and use the findings to figure out what makes the most sense going forward.

Really all I actually care about is team building.

 

[Vector]

No shit.

Everyone and their dog knew it was going to be a flat cap for a couple years.

That's why they need to do shit by last deadline. Moving Miller alone would have been massive.

They definitely have been far too passive and wasted so much time.

Unrelated but I’ll include it here, Dhaliwal also said there will be buyouts but not OEL. A month ago I showed what each buyout would accomplish and really wasn’t much.

Also said the record wouldn’t affect the deadline plan. Management knows this was a fringe playoff team that would be out in the first round anyway, at best.

Will receive the most calls on Schenn. Will trade him and try and bring him back as a free agent.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Flat track pony with the size and shot of a bantam rep player with 3 more years at $5m is not desirable.

If the 2nd and 3rd rumour from last TDL was dismissed by management that’s almost as bad as the 3 year extension to Boeser.

This is why holding out because “the value wasn’t right” can be detrimental.

1) You risk that the player declines or gets injured
2) Being proactive in removing cap means you have the freedom to make improve the team if something is available. Also don’t have to make panic trades like Dickinson for a 2nd and Stillplayingforsomereason.

 

[sting101]

Did anybody think we could move a big contract now without taking back a bad contract?

 

[Vector]

Did anybody think we could move a big contract now without taking back a bad contract?

I think there’s a possibility of getting it done this off-season with retention but it’s limited to Myers and Pearson.

Really, the contracts that have to move are Myers, Pearson, and Boeser. Will probably pay to get rid of Poolman. OEL isn’t going anywhere. They are committed to Miller. Garland is a good player and doesn’t need to be moved. Horvat and Schenn will get traded. If they want to keep Kuzmenko then something needs to happen.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

They definitely have been far too passive and wasted so much time.

Unrelated but I’ll include it here, Dhaliwal also said there will be buyouts but not OEL. A month ago I showed what each buyout would accomplish and really wasn’t much.

Also said the record wouldn’t affect the deadline plan. Management knows this was a fringe playoff team that would be out in the first round anyway, at best.

Will receive the most calls on Schenn. Will trade him and try and bring him back as a free agent.

I'll believe it when I see it. I can already see the excuses for extending Horvat (trade offers not good enough), Schenn (too important to the team, one of the only RHD that can defend), etc etc.

Also shocked that the trading for disappointing 20-something is getting so much support here over picks. It's almost as if Gudbranson/Sbisa/Pouliot/Baertschi didn't teach us anything. I guess if you have absolutely zero faith on the amateur scouting team, then sure you might prefer a player. But with this team's pro-scouting...yikes.

 

[sting101]

I think there’s a possibility of getting it done this off-season with retention but it’s limited to Myers and Pearson.

Really, the contracts that have to move are Myers, Pearson, and Boeser. Will probably pay to get rid of Poolman. OEL isn’t going anywhere. They are committed to Miller. Garland is a good player and doesn’t need to be moved. Horvat and Schenn will get traded. If they want to keep Kuzmenko then something needs to happen.

Ive been saying this all year but unless you can make a hockey deal which would mean were not making traction with contracts and just exchanging apples for apples they needed to wait till the 4-6 weeks leading to the deadline to try and move contracts

 

[krutovsdonut]

"First of all, I just want to say the Canucks know this player inside and out. Lafreniere's old agent is current Canucks AGM Emilie Castonguay. The Canucks checked in him. He was made a healthy scratch last weak by the Rangers. Lots of teams have checked in on the former 1st overall pick from 2020. 69 points in 172 games for the Rangers. He did get 19 last year. He's only 21. Up an down under head coach Gerard Gallant. I think the Canucks have had their eyes on this player for awhile. Can a change of scenery help this player? But here's the problem, and I'm sure there's a tonne of teams that have checked in on him, he's been up and down with the Rangers, it's okay to check in on a player. But he's not going to be cheap. Canucks do have assets, like Bo Horvat, right now to pull this off. If, capitals letters IF, the Rangers decide to move him Lafreniere is the type of player the new regime in Vancouver is looking for. Now remember this guys, one thing about this regime, they've been steadfast since the day they got in Vancouver is they've said they want to get younger, preferably 26 and under, and we want to get faster. I believe they got faster with the Mikheyev signing, obviously that improved the overall team speed, but younger. Before he was traded to Montreal, the Canucks also checked in on Blackhawks forward Kirby Dach. So I want you to think about what Chicago got for Kirby Dach; 1st and a 2nd rounder. Picks 13 and 66. Right now, I've been told the Canucks don't want to trade their 1st rounder from this year. When you got these young players like Dach and Lafreniere...Dach's worked out in Montreal. He's been fine this year. Then he got his long term deal. I think it's going to cost a lot. There's danger on the Rangers' side; a former first overall pick going somewhere else and lighting it up. I've just been told that teams are checking on Lafreniere and the Canucks are one of them. He falls into that category, 26 and younger, the Canucks want to get younger."

dhaliwal a lot of detail here that doesn't sound like it came from agents for once.

have the canucks maybe broken their freeze out on local media? it's been over a year and we just started a new year.

 

[gringo]

My updated wish list
Horvat - trade
Miller - trade
Myers- trade/buyout
OEL- buyout
Pearson- trade/waivers
Boeser- trade/waivers
Kuzmenko- trade
Garland- trade

 

[bossram]

It’s simply time for JR/Allvin to do what effing needs to be done. Should’ve been done long ago. The schedule upcoming is brutal. There is absolutely no chance of playoffs. All there is now is maximizing their lottery odds.

Between now and the TDL, at minimum, they need to:
- Trade Horvat
- Trade Kuzmenko
- Trade Schenn
- Move Miller for anything

Then in the offseason find a way off Myers and Boeser. Find a trade for Demko. Blow. It. Up.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I know much has been made of OEL as a target, but I honestly think targeting Garland (money aside) was probably more ill-advised. He's an absolute hat on a hat player on this team. He would have great use on a team playing in a role like Gagner did on Columbus that year where he was a 4th liner with 1st pp time, as the puck distributor on a team great at winning pucks but bad at creating space with it (which Benning was fooled by). But on this team? I can't wait until he is gone. He impresses casuals because he does a lot of solo spins but none of them accomplish anything and his lines never have any zone time because he literally can't be a part of a productive cycle.

I'm still mildly hopeful that we can get rid of Miller, but it's probably unlikely.

I'm surprised to see @MS arguing against acquiring draft picks in favor of young players who struggle on their current teams. I don't wholly agree or disagree as it depends on the player, but I feel like this is the opposite of his previous arguments, though I can appreciate if this is a reaction to the fact that in the early and mid 2010's we had nothing in the pipline, whereas now we actually have a solid core to build around, we just have done so entirely porously.

We need to get a nice haul for Horvat and move out some money, but I don't think this team is that far away, certainly not where it's worth trying to bottom out for 5 years. But it's definitely worth bottoming out this year.

I think people downplay how much of a lame duck coach Boudreau is. Management doesn't like him, but ownership refuses to cut bait because they don't want to pay 3 coaches at once (which is unconscionable in a league with this kind of money at play). I think part of why we look so bloody disorganized is because the Canucks are playing like a grade 6 class with a substitute teacher.

Bring in a coach who is coherently part of the braintrust, move Horvat for a good young player and a pick or two, move Garland, Schenn, possibly Boeser, hopefully Myers in the off season. Bring in even a competent RD, re-sign Kuzmenko, and believe that Demko gets his form back and we are back on a solid path.

Petey has been re-asserting, as some of us absolutely knew he would, that he's a superstar in this league. Hughes has started to look like himself again since the Edmonton game, and Demko will get his game back too. We can still build around that core, and Podkolzin and Hoglander aren't chopped liver either.

I want a top 10 pick this year (though I still cheer for the Canucks every game when I'm watching, I know this is the way) and hopefully another 1st rounder and a young player coming our way to help us reload.

I think OEL has been playing hurt all season. The fall he did and the injury point to an injured foot and IIRC he had surgery on his foot in the off season, right? Nothing is going to make him a 7.2 million dollar player again, but he was probably a 6 million dollar player or so last year and it doesn't make sense that he's lost it this quickly.

Miller is either playing hurt, is out of shape, or doesn't give a shit. I pray it's the 1st because I'm not sure the fix for the latter 2.

It's an exhausting and un-fun time to be a Canucks fan but, if they take the right steps, things could be looking up as soon as the trade deadline.

 

[Cogburn]

What frustrates me most about this, is that every poster has said something along the lines of "we need to trade off assets and rebuild" and yet nothing of the sort has been done. Motte for a 4th? Hamonic for a third for Dermott? Signing Mikheyev and Lazar? Resigning Boeser and Miller? Bringing in Kuzmenko? Paying a massive premium to dump Dickinson and take back Stillman? Moving prospects for Studnicka? Trading a low pick for Bear and Pederson?

That is a mixed bag of moves, on driving principles, not the outcome. That's an aggressive number of moves, but if you laid these out in front of me blind, I wouldn't be able to tell you what the team is trying to do.

We need a rebuild, if for no other reason then we have a single direction we're working towards.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

What frustrates me most about this, is that every poster has said something along the lines of "we need to trade off assets and rebuild" and yet nothing of the sort has been done. Motte for a 4th? Hamonic for a third for Dermott? Signing Mikheyev and Lazar? Resigning Boeser and Miller? Bringing in Kuzmenko? Paying a massive premium to dump Dickinson and take back Stillman? Moving prospects for Studnicka? Trading a low pick for Bear and Pederson?

That is a mixed bag of moves, on driving principles, not the outcome. That's an aggressive number of moves, but if you laid these out in front of me blind, I wouldn't be able to tell you what the team is trying to do.

We need a rebuild, if for no other reason then we have a single direction we're working towards.

You don’t have to be blind to be confused about what they are trying to do.

 

[Cogburn]

You don’t have to be blind to be confused about what they are trying to do.

But it helps!

It's like a retool...but changing the kinds of screwdriver brands and not getting the tools you actually need, like a bandsaw or 10 lb hammer.

 

[m9]

On the post-game show we're hearing how the team can't make trades because there's no cap room around the league. Not sure I buy it, at least in terms of three players who need to be moved. These three IMO are the priority, and then you go from there.

-Kuzmenko. He's eligible to be re-signed and the two sides need to be talking. They should know within the next week if that deal is going to be done. If not, that's a minimum contract (plus bonuses) that shouldn't be hard to move. No need to wait until the deadline, teams will want to see how this player fits in and whether or not they can trust him in a key role. Value only goes down between now and the deadline.

-Schenn. Another cheap guy. Defense is totally healthy and his play is down a bit over the last few weeks. You cannot let it slip further to the point where the value gets sucked out of this player. Get it done.

-Horvat. Okay, his contract is higher. But that's easy to work around with full retention and taking a middling contract back. We are talking about a guy at the absolute peak of his value right now. Teams will want him so they can win more games right now. An injury or a 10-15 game run where he runs cold would be devastating to what this team can acquire.

 

[racerjoe]

On the post-game show we're hearing how the team can't make trades because there's no cap room around the league. Not sure I buy it, at least in terms of three players who need to be moved. These three IMO are the priority, and then you go from there.

-Kuzmenko. He's eligible to be re-signed and the two sides need to be talking. They should know within the next week if that deal is going to be done. If not, that's a minimum contract (plus bonuses) that shouldn't be hard to move. No need to wait until the deadline, teams will want to see how this player fits in and whether or not they can trust him in a key role. Value only goes down between now and the deadline.

-Schenn. Another cheap guy. Defense is totally healthy and his play is down a bit over the last few weeks. You cannot let it slip further to the point where the value gets sucked out of this player. Get it done.

-Horvat. Okay, his contract is higher. But that's easy to work around with full retention and taking a middling contract back. We are talking about a guy at the absolute peak of his value right now. Teams will want him so they can win more games right now. An injury or a 10-15 game run where he runs cold would be devastating to what this team can acquire.

The only player I agree on here is Schenn. Kuze the team will take an actual run at signing if they can't it will be much closer to the deadline, and Horvat is the type of player they were talking about where moving cap is hard and won't happen until closer tot he deadline.


On another note and not directed at you, but the board more so. There is a huge difference in what Benning was doing in terms of the age gap players he was going after and what we have seen this management look at. Like Bearstchi to Laff (as has been talked about) is a major difference. Hell the difference between Pouliot and Bear is massive. If people can't see the difference in these and are just angry about not getting a draft pick they are missing the plot here.

 

[MS]

I'm surprised to see @MS arguing against acquiring draft picks in favor of young players who struggle on their current teams. I don't wholly agree or disagree as it depends on the player, but I feel like this is the opposite of his previous arguments, though I can appreciate if this is a reaction to the fact that in the early and mid 2010's we had nothing in the pipline, whereas now we actually have a solid core to build around, we just have done so entirely porously.

Nope. Outside of lottery picks, I think I've pretty much always prioritized actual NHL players over draft picks. That established young NHL players who are struggling aged 21-23 are undervalued assets has been my take here forever, like dating back to discussions on Kesler and the Sedins in the early-mid 2000s. Stick with these guys if you have them, target them if other teams are moving them.

I repeatedly said that Benning's pick deficits were a bit of a red herring and about the 30th biggest problem with Benning when people were outraged over it.

I was the only person on this board defending the Gaudette-Highmore deal instead of getting a 6th or something for Gaudette because I think late round picks are essentially worthless and you're better off taking a shot on a player you like if you can get one.

This is not the same as being upset about trading high picks for AHL players approaching waiver eligibility which was the Jim Benning Special. Linden Vey or Sven Baertschi is not the same thing as a Lafreniere who is putting up ~30 ES points/82 in the NHL. When you look at trading high picks for that level of player - no, the math doesn't work.

The other caveat would also be that you need roster space to develop a player you take on. We have that now, but if you have a stacked team you're better off taking a draft pick than a player you don't have room for and who you'd basically just be setting up to fail because you can give him the icetime and role he needs to succeed.

I think people downplay how much of a lame duck coach Boudreau is. Management doesn't like him, but ownership refuses to cut bait because they don't want to pay 3 coaches at once (which is unconscionable in a league with this kind of money at play). I think part of why we look so bloody disorganized is because the Canucks are playing like a grade 6 class with a substitute teacher.

This has been the most under-reported story of this season.

That we have this old lame-duck coach who can't impose a defensive system has totally derailed the season. It's absolutely insane that he's still here.

He should have been replaced in the summer but I can kind of get where they caved to public opinion, but once we had the start we did he should have been gone by Halloween.

 

[m9]

The only player I agree on here is Schenn. Kuze the team will take an actual run at signing if they can't it will be much closer to the deadline, and Horvat is the type of player they were talking about where moving cap is hard and won't happen until closer tot he deadline.

They can take that run at signing Kuzmenko now. He's not a player I believe will have much value at the deadline so I think you need to push that decision up to this month. He's eligible to be re-signed, so either do it or don't. Nothing changes between January 17th and the trade deadline, there's no need to wait.

As for Horvat, like I said I don't think the "moving money is hard" should apply to him. They can retain and maybe take a contract back if needed. Maybe it means a couple of teams are out, but I think you should still have enough of a market to get it done. You cannot risk that injury or slump here. Plus, this team is going nowhere so get him out quicker so he's not scoring a goal every night to push you to 18th place.

On another note and not directed at you, but the board more so. There is a huge difference in what Benning was doing in terms of the age gap players he was going after and what we have seen this management look at. Like Bearstchi to Laff (as has been talked about) is a major difference. Hell the difference between Pouliot and Bear is massive. If people can't see the difference in these and are just angry about not getting a draft pick they are missing the plot here.

I don't really see the difference, at least as of now. The guys that they have acquired that fill that bill are Bear, Studnicka, and Stillman and they're comparable to Vey, Pouliot, Etem, Clendening, Baertschi. All follows the same path of giving up assets (even small ones) for replacement-level warm bodies.

I assume pretty much all GMs make these kind of moves, though. The problem with most of these kind of trades is that they are in-season reaction trades and not some proactive plan of attack. I think you are inherently going to do worse in trades where your motive is so short-term.

 

[Cogburn]

On another note and not directed at you, but the board more so. There is a huge difference in what Benning was doing in terms of the age gap players he was going after and what we have seen this management look at. Like Bearstchi to Laff (as has been talked about) is a major difference. Hell the difference between Pouliot and Bear is massive. If people can't see the difference in these and are just angry about not getting a draft pick they are missing the plot here.

I'm not sure I agree.

While I don't agree in the whole fire sale concept, at least for us at this point, this core is not good enough and this team is not good enough. We aren't a few good moves from competing, nor are we a few course corrections of Benning moves away from competing. We should be selling some of the assets we have, and won't use properly, if we can't compete.

Baertschi and Lafreniere aren't comparable, as we're not getting him for a similar price to Baertschi, and we paid a lot for Baertschi.

Pouliot and Bear are very different in play and value, and as a trade is more comparable, however how much better has Bear made us? Not to rag on the guy, I like his play, but we need to be aiming bigger if we aren't selling off. The difference in his play and that of Schenn (who you mention has fallen off some), or Myers, or Burroughs is enough to justify the cost in assets(although think of what we had to do to get that cap space for him...), but not the cost of our management still thinking this corps can compete with minor changes.

The moves are better, when taken individually, but the sum is no different from what Benning was doing: not committing, and poorly trying to walk the line between competing and rebuilding.

 

[JT Milker]

The suggestion to trade Miller really puts the fantasy in this thread’s title.

 

[racerjoe]

They can take that run at signing Kuzmenko now. He's not a player I believe will have much value at the deadline so I think you need to push that decision up to this month. He's eligible to be re-signed, so either do it or don't. Nothing changes between January 17th and the trade deadline, there's no need to wait.

As for Horvat, like I said I don't think the "moving money is hard" should apply to him. They can retain and maybe take a contract back if needed. Maybe it means a couple of teams are out, but I think you should still have enough of a market to get it done. You cannot risk that injury or slump here. Plus, this team is going nowhere so get him out quicker so he's not scoring a goal every night to push you to 18th place.



I don't really see the difference, at least as of now. The guys that they have acquired that fill that bill are Bear, Studnicka, and Stillman and they're comparable to Vey, Pouliot, Etem, Clendening, Baertschi. All follows the same path of giving up assets (even small ones) for replacement-level warm bodies.

I assume pretty much all GMs make these kind of moves, though. The problem with most of these kind of trades is that they are in-season reaction trades and not some proactive plan of attack. I think you are inherently going to do worse in trades where your motive is so short-term.

If it is easy to move money on players like a Horvat why are so many players like him still not moved? You can keep saying it shouldn't be a problem, but really how many teams are making trades at all right now not even money trades, just trades? Clearly there is bigger issues at play.

Stop including stillman... it makes you look bad. I don't think you are, but it really does.

Bear is an NHL dman... full stop that is something like none of those guys were. That is a huge difference. Studnicka maybe could be close but even then look at what was paid vs those other trades. We traded high 2nds for most of those guys you listed.

I'm not sure I agree.

While I don't agree in the whole fire sale concept, at least for us at this point, this core is not good enough and this team is not good enough. We aren't a few good moves from competing, nor are we a few course corrections of Benning moves away from competing. We should be selling some of the assets we have, and won't use properly, if we can't compete.

Baertschi and Lafreniere aren't comparable, as we're not getting him for a similar price to Baertschi, and we paid a lot for Baertschi.

Pouliot and Bear are very different in play and value, and as a trade is more comparable, however how much better has Bear made us? Not to rag on the guy, I like his play, but we need to be aiming bigger if we aren't selling off. The difference in his play and that of Schenn (who you mention has fallen off some), or Myers, or Burroughs is enough to justify the cost in assets(although think of what we had to do to get that cap space for him...), but not the cost of our management still thinking this corps can compete with minor changes.

The moves are better, when taken individually, but the sum is no different from what Benning was doing: not committing, and poorly trying to walk the line between competing and rebuilding.

You are mixing a few concepts here. We didn't sell off to get Bear. Yes if we sell off I expect to get a Laff type guy back. Those are the two different concepts. I don't expect Bear to make us contenders, but I expect his added depth to help us.

You will get better by making these small bets that pay off.

The difference is we paid a 2nd for Pouliot, it was a terrible trade the moment it was made as he wasn't an NHL player.

 

[Szechwan]

The suggestion to trade Miller really puts the fantasy in this thread’s title.

I generally agree it is extremely unlikely.. but I did find it interesting that it was reported management specifically declined to make this future NTC retroactive to this year. A team confident in their decision to sign him probably has to problem doing that, which makes me wonder what is going on in the background.

 

[Vector]

Seravalli has an article that speculates what Eastern Conference teams will focus on at the trade deadline. Expects the Bruins and Capitals to be in on Horvat.

 

[MS]

I don't really see the difference, at least as of now. The guys that they have acquired that fill that bill are Bear, Studnicka, and Stillman and they're comparable to Vey, Pouliot, Etem, Clendening, Baertschi. All follows the same path of giving up assets (even small ones) for replacement-level warm bodies.

I assume pretty much all GMs make these kind of moves, though. The problem with most of these kind of trades is that they are in-season reaction trades and not some proactive plan of attack. I think you are inherently going to do worse in trades where your motive is so short-term.

Studnicka is from the same Benning type.

Bear is absolutely not. He had been an NHL regular for multiple seasons, played a full season as a top-4 defender at 22 minutes/game, and basically walked straight into top-4 minutes here. Incredibly different sort of player. Same with Dermott who had extended periods as an effective NHL defender. The guys Benning was trading for were busting prospect who had never shown an ability to be effective in the NHL.

I think Stillman was a cap dump to even up part of the salary of that trade that the team was hoping could be useful defensive depth. I don't think he was 'targeted' as such.