Fantasy GM Thread | Two Minutes to Midnight for Horvat?

[Nick Lang]

I actually wouldn’t mind Kakko as a target. He’s not living up to his draft position, but puts up 30-35 ES points a year and is a great 2way player. Fills a need there. Pettersson and Kuzmenko are the only regular forwards with above 50% xGF%. His next contract shouldn’t be too expensive either. If Horvat isn’t coming back, and we can’t get a top forward or D prospect which we almost certainly won’t, than Kakko would be a good piece. Better than a 1st + B prospects or someone like Newhook.

I think either Kakko or Lafrenier are excellent returns. That's exactly the gamble a team needs to make in these situations. You're talking very high pedigree players who are under 22 and still have great potential to be top end players. Much better than some middling kid who is close to his ceiling. Swing for the fences. To be honest they're already doing well ... some people just have unrealistic expectations.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

the truth is vancouver needs better talent at every position. they can't afford to hold out for the perfect deal

No. The Canucks do not need more wingers. Especially if you correctly believe that Miller is a winger.

 

[VanillaCoke]

So we losing Hoglander or more picks for Merkley?!

 

[Vector]

Dante Fabbro a healthy scratch. His name has popped up in various rumours this season. Predators apparently looking for scoring. They have 2.7m in current space with an estimated 6.5m deadline space. Garland might be a good stylistic fit for them.

 

[StickShift]

Dante Fabbro a healthy scratch. His name has popped up in various rumours this season. Predators apparently looking for scoring. They have 2.7m in current space with an estimated 6.5m deadline space. Garland might be a good stylistic fit for them.

Never understood why the Preds traded away Viktor Arvidsson in the first place. He's the same sort of spark plug style as Garland.

 

[Soups On]

Dante Fabbro a healthy scratch. His name has popped up in various rumours this season. Predators apparently looking for scoring. They have 2.7m in current space with an estimated 6.5m deadline space. Garland might be a good stylistic fit for them.

I'm not gonna pretend like I know how good or bad Fabbro has been but I do recall him being someone a lot of people here wanted to target a few years ago - I did too at that time. Would be happy to trade Garland for Fabbro, even happier if it was Boeser.

 

[Hodgy]

Taking picks over young established NHL players is absolutely terrible management.

Unless some team is willing to fork over a top-10 pick, draft picks are the most overrated assets in the sport. It's hilarious how dazzled fans are by 1st round picks in the 20s given how terrible the track record is for those picks.

The team should absolutely be targeting Lafreniere-types who have a *massively* higher chance of moving the needle. But the problem is that Lafreniere is a slow skill winger on a team loaded with slow skill wingers. If you move Horvat, you have to be addressing the team at C or D.

To be fair, 420 didn't say the Canucks should necessarily use the draft pick acquired to draft a player, only that picks are currency (e.g., the Canadiens with Dach).

I agree on this point. Sure, if you can make a trade for the young quality player you are targeting, then go ahead and make the one trade. The problem is that the teams with the assets you want may not be interested in the player you are trading. So sometimes it may make sense to trade your asset for draft picks which are fungible assets and then further trade those picks for you end target.

 

[Vector]

Never understood why the Preds traded away Viktor Arvidsson in the first place. He's the same sort of spark plug style as Garland.

They misidentified who they should keep in the expansion draft. Ended up protecting Luke Kunin and and Philippe Myers. Their cap structure is so top-heavy too.

I'm not gonna pretend like I know how good or bad Fabbro has been but I do recall him being someone a lot of people here wanted to target a few years ago - I did too at that time. Would be happy to trade Garland for Fabbro, even happier if it was Boeser.

They have limited capspace this offseason and Boeser would eat into that even more.

Nashville Predators
UFAs	RFAs	Proj. Cap Space
Cole Smith	Cody Glass	12.8m
Mark Jankowski	Tanner Jeannot
Kevin Lankinen	Thomas Novak	Roster Size
Michael McCarron	Dante Fabbro	14
Zachary Sanford	Alexandre Carrier
Kiefer Sherwood	Markus Nurmi
	Jimmy Huntington
	John Leonard
	Tomas Vomacka
	Devin Cooley

 

[ahmon]

Fabbro was horrific last year and in the playoffs.

His development has stalled if not regressed. Unless he turns it around, we are talking about another 3rd pairing dman (or weak 2nd pairing) that the canucks have a whole collection of.

 

[MS]

To be fair, 420 didn't say the Canucks should necessarily use the draft pick acquired to draft a player, only that picks are currency (e.g., the Canadiens with Dach).

I agree on this point. Sure, if you can make a trade for the young quality player you are targeting, then go ahead and make the one trade. The problem is that the teams with the assets you want may not be interested in the player you are trading. So sometimes it may make sense to trade your asset for draft picks which are fungible assets and then further trade those picks for you end target.

I mean, of course, you take the draft picks if the other offers on a player are garbage. And the team did do this with the Hamonic-Dermott trade where they used the pick as currency (and of course people FREAKED OUT about the team 'bleeding a pick' there).

In terms of value, picks are fool's gold. Yeah, maybe you'll be able to flip that fool's gold to someone else. But probably not.

A #25 overall first round pick has maybe a 30% chance of being an NHL player and maybe a 10-15% chance of being an actual core player that moves the needle.

Lafreniere probably has a 95% chance of being an NHL player for multiple seasons and a 30-40% chance of turning things around into a 'core' type player. And he carries value that you can flip later, too.

I'd obviously be targeting young C and D over Lafreniere. But you take Lafreniere over some package of picks and B prospects every single time.

 

[4Twenty]

Taking picks over young established NHL players is absolutely terrible management.

Unless some team is willing to fork over a top-10 pick, draft picks are the most overrated assets in the sport. It's hilarious how dazzled fans are by 1st round picks in the 20s given how terrible the track record is for those picks.

The team should absolutely be targeting Lafreniere-types who have a *massively* higher chance of moving the needle. But the problem is that Lafreniere is a slow skill winger on a team loaded with slow skill wingers. If you move Horvat, you have to be addressing the team at C or D.

Lol.

Yeah the types of player you want is definitely available for a rental.

I’d take a 1st and two 2nds over a 1sy and some failing tweener like Newhook easily.

Two 2nds can get you a player like Devon Toews and/or Marino.

Holding out for some return than ticks all the boxes is how you walk away from good deals and double down on failed cores.

What’s more likely a team wants another first at the draft or some guy like Chytil/Lundqvist?

I mean, of course, you take the draft picks if the other offers on a player are garbage. And the team did do this with the Hamonic-Dermott trade where they used the pick as currency (and of course people FREAKED OUT about the team 'bleeding a pick' there).

In terms of value, picks are fool's gold. Yeah, maybe you'll be able to flip that fool's gold to someone else. But probably not.

A #25 overall first round pick has maybe a 30% chance of being an NHL player and maybe a 10-15% chance of being an actual core player that moves the needle.

Lafreniere probably has a 95% chance of being an NHL player for multiple seasons and a 30-40% chance of turning things around into a 'core' type player. And he carries value that you can flip later, too.

I'd obviously be targeting young C and D over Lafreniere. But you take Lafreniere over some package of picks and B prospects every single time.

People complained about Dermott because he steadily went down the leafs depth chart not up. The team needs/needed an actual top 4 dmen not a reclamation.

 

[MS]

I’d take a 1st and two 2nds over a 1sy and some failing tweener like Newhook easily.

... and thinking you're winning deals by prioritizing 2nd round picks over actual established young NHL players is bad management. Full stop.

You're taking the mystery box over the boat.

People complained about Dermott because he steadily went down the leafs depth chart not up. The team needs/needed an actual top 4 dmen not a reclamation.

They needed both quality bodies that could skate and move the puck and higher-end guys.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Wonder if San Jose would be into a Lekkerimaki/Merkley swap. I'd do it.

 

[Nucker101]

A winger being a centerpeice in a Horvat deal makes me barf.

any age gap C/D being the centerpiece in a Horvat deal will likely make us barf. Because no one's trading the good ones.

Homers dreams: Lundell/Byram

Reality of what gets offered: Roslovic/Peeke/Newhook

 

[Nucker101]

... and thinking you're winning deals by prioritizing 2nd round picks over actual established young NHL players is bad management. Full stop.

You're taking the mystery box over the boat.



They needed both quality bodies that could skate and move the puck and higher-end guys.

What are more 3rd liners and #5 dmen going to do for this team? Give me the mystery boxes, especially since they won't depreciate as fast as age gap players who become nearly worthless once they continue to be mediocre on their 2nd teams and the "maybe they just needed a change of scenery" hope dies


More Ethan Bears aren't going to move the needle.

Not to mention that mystery boxes hold more market value during the summer when quality players get traded for reasonable prices

 

[pitseleh]

... and thinking you're winning deals by prioritizing 2nd round picks over actual established young NHL players is bad management. Full stop.

You're taking the mystery box over the boat.

I think the point is you can still get the boat, but if you wait until the offseason you’re more likely to get the boat for one mystery box instead of two, or you can get the speedboat for the two mystery boxes instead of the canoe.

The trade market isn’t efficient so that won’t hold true all the time, but given picks are worth the least at the deadline and the most in the offseason, it makes sense from a market dynamic perspective.

 

[Vector]

Daily Faceoff's Trade Target Board:

1) Bo Horvat

Scoop: Contract talks between the Canucks and Horvat’s camp have gone cold again after word leaked that Horvat rejected an increased offer in December. There’s no official confirmation, but some believe that offer was in the neighborhood of 8 years x $7-7.5 million, which is a big step up from where Vancouver was previously. Will the Canucks take another run at re-signing their captain before the deadline? It feels like the stage has been set ever since Canucks president Jim Rutherford told Sportsnet 650: “The better he plays, the better return we can get for him.”

19) Brock Boeser

Scoop: Canucks president Jim Rutherford said if this season continues to swirl down the drain, they will be forced to unload larger contracts. Outside of pending UFA Horvat (No. 1), Boeser is perhaps most moveable of those deals. He certainly hasn’t scored at his typical rate this season, but Boeser started slow and finished stronger last season with 29 points in 43 games. His contract probably has him overpaid by approximately $1 million, which devalues the return in a trade, but if the Canucks are looking to create salary cap space then Boeser is certainly an avenue.

 

[MS]

What are more 3rd liners and #5 dmen going to do for this team? Give me the mystery boxes, especially since they won't depreciate as fast as age gap players who become nearly worthless once they continue to be mediocre on their 2nd teams and the "maybe they just needed a change of scenery" hope dies


More Ethan Bears aren't going to move the needle.

Not to mention that mystery boxes hold more market value during the summer when quality players get traded for reasonable prices

The odds of an actual NHL player blowing up are higher than the odds of some random 2nd rounder hitting. Thinking the pick has more upside is a fallacy. The odds that a Lafreniere or Newhook blows up to be a 70-point guy are *far* higher than the odds that pick #50 overall hits as a core player. Like, not even close.

I mean, hell. We built the entire WCE with players that you guys would have been arguing we should have passed on to demand magic beans instead.

This never changes. It's the same mentality that had like 70% of this board wanting to take a 2nd round pick for Ryan Kesler when Philly gave him an offer sheet.

 

[Deeds26]

Very interesting move by Detroit to waive Vrana. Has to be some sort of personal issues going on there. A team claiming him would be huge for Detroit's cap but also buying him out after the year isn't bad either.

They would have a bit of cap space for this year and next year, maybe they make a move for Horvat (sign long-term) or Boeser (to help fill Vrana's spot)?

Just a thought, a scary one though since we'd have to deal with Yzerman who almost seems to get the better of the deal.

 

[4Twenty]

The odds of an actual NHL player blowing up are higher than the odds of some random 2nd rounder hitting. Thinking the pick has more upside is a fallacy. The odds that a Lafreniere or Newhook blows up to be a 70-point guy are *far* higher than the odds that pick #50 overall hits as a core player. Like, not even close.

I mean, hell. We built the entire WCE with players that you guys would have been arguing we should have passed on to demand magic beans instead.

This never changes. It's the same mentality that had like 70% of this board wanting to take a 2nd round pick for Ryan Kesler when Philly gave him an offer sheet.

Pitseleh nailed it. Your “boat” is likely a canoe.

More likely to get a yacht by offereing a mystery box than a canoe.


You’re essentially shooting for players good teams don’t want. I’d prefer picks 100% because they’re more flexible.

I bet if Pittsburgh had it to do again they’d take a second pick over, established nhl Dman Ty Smith.

 

[Vector]

"First of all, I just want to say the Canucks know this player inside and out. Lafreniere's old agent is current Canucks AGM Emilie Castonguay. The Canucks checked in him. He was made a healthy scratch last weak by the Rangers. Lots of teams have checked in on the former 1st overall pick from 2020. 69 points in 172 games for the Rangers. He did get 19 last year. He's only 21. Up an down under head coach Gerard Gallant. I think the Canucks have had their eyes on this player for awhile. Can a change of scenery help this player? But here's the problem, and I'm sure there's a tonne of teams that have checked in on him, he's been up and down with the Rangers, it's okay to check in on a player. But he's not going to be cheap. Canucks do have assets, like Bo Horvat, right now to pull this off. If, capitals letters IF, the Rangers decide to move him Lafreniere is the type of player the new regime in Vancouver is looking for. Now remember this guys, one thing about this regime, they've been steadfast since the day they got in Vancouver is they've said they want to get younger, preferably 26 and under, and we want to get faster. I believe they got faster with the Mikheyev signing, obviously that improved the overall team speed, but younger. Before he was traded to Montreal, the Canucks also checked in on Blackhawks forward Kirby Dach. So I want you to think about what Chicago got for Kirby Dach; 1st and a 2nd rounder. Picks 13 and 66. Right now, I've been told the Canucks don't want to trade their 1st rounder from this year. When you got these young players like Dach and Lafreniere...Dach's worked out in Montreal. He's been fine this year. Then he got his long term deal. I think it's going to cost a lot. There's danger on the Rangers' side; a former first overall pick going somewhere else and lighting it up. I've just been told that teams are checking on Lafreniere and the Canucks are one of them. He falls into that category, 26 and younger, the Canucks want to get younger."

 

[rypper]

Wonder if San Jose would be into a Lekkerimaki/Merkley swap. I'd do it.

 

[Vector]

Pitseleh nailed it. Your “boat” is likely a canoe.

This isn't what pitseleh posted, though. He's saying that it does make sense to acquire the picks now, when they are plentiful and at their lowest value, then flip them at the draft for the types of players MS is talking about.

 

[4Twenty]

Yeah. Take the picks. Use it as currency. Same shit I said this morning that ms chirped me about when he obviously missed the point and hodgy explained it to him. And pitseleh did as well.

 

[m9]

I think the most efficient way to gain value out of "sell" trades in today's NHL is take back picks & expiring cap dumps, let the contracts fall off, then use and/or trade the picks however you want in the off-season. I don't think the system really benefits taking on young players back in-season other than guys on ELCs.