Value of: Erik Karlsson @ 50%

[SomeDude]

He has a NMC. Unless Crosby leaves and Pittsburgh looks more like the San Jose team that Karlsson left, I don't see why he would waive it unless it is to go to a legitimate top-tier contender, or back to Ottawa where he still lives in the offseason.

Karlsson seemed very frustrated a lot this year. It seems like he’s the only player in the locker room that realizes Mike Sullivan is a joke. If he could get moved to a team that doesn’t have Mike Hoffman, I think he would welcome it.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Brandon Montour and Brady Skjei just got 7x7. EK65 retained down to 5MM for 3 more years brings back a major haul.

He is 34 with 3 years of term and an extensive injury history. His production massively dropped after he got out of San Jose.

Hypothetically, if he was a UFA, I could see him getting a 1-2 year contract with a similar AAV to 5M, or a inflated 1 year contract. Teams would be reticent to give him term at 5M because of his history and age.

He's not worth anything at 3 years 5M with the ability to choose his destination. At that point, the team is giving Pittsburgh 15M of cap. That's the asset coming back tot he Penguins. There's no 1st round pick or major prospect.

Go back and look at the original trade and consider that came off of one of the greatest offensive seasons ever from a defenseman. You might say well his cap hit was 10M, yes but Pittsburgh was able to dump a significant amount of negative value cap in that trade as a proxy for further retention.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Karlsson seemed very frustrated a lot this year. It seems like he’s the only player in the locker room that realizes Mike Sullivan is a joke. If he could get moved to a team that doesn’t have Mike Hoffman, I think he would welcome it.

There's like 5 teams in the league that you can guarantee will be a better situation than Pittsburgh and don't require an element of luck and faith.

He has a young family, I doubt he wants to move twice in a two year span unless there is a very compelling selling point (returning to Ottawa to join Alfredsson, or guaranteed contender). Like most players, he probably doesn't want to go to California or Canada (except Ottawa). He also may not want to be in the Western Conference because he still lives in Ottawa part time and his wife's family is from there, not to mention the travel schedule at his age.

It's not going to be easy or simple to find a destination for him that makes more sense than just staying in Pittsburgh, where the team would take him half-retained for future considerations, let alone take him and give Pittsburgh any assets beyond the cap/cash.

Pittsburgh's best hope is whatever circumstances would be required for Ottawa to want to trade for him come to fruition. Whether that is Chabot or Norris failing and Ottawa being willing to make a hockey trade, or Brady/Giroux leaving and Ottawa using Karlsson's return to change the narrative.

I'm a big Karlsson fan, so I would love to be wrong and have Pittsburgh trade him for Celebrini or something because then I could feel validated in that Karlsson is better than Doughty, but it's common sense to look at how cap is valued and how the trade market worked out last time around when Karlsson's performance was significantly better than it was this season and conclude that moving him even at half-retained will be nearly impossible, let alone moving him and getting value back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

5M is a perfectly appropriate cap hit, but then there are complications like will teams be comfortable with 3 years for a declining Karlsson, or will he waive.

The idea that teams would shy away from Karlsson at 3 years at $5 million, when guys like Montour are getting 7 years at $7 million a year, is absolute idiocy.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Yeah reading this thread is insane. He finished with 56 points in 82 games while playing over 24 minutes a night. How is that an issue at all? Especially in the OP which is being proposed for Karlsson at $5 million.

Either way, the Penguins aren't going to eat that kind of money for 3 years on Karlsson's deal. They'll trade him with a year or so left with heavy retention and likely get a strong return for him then. Karlsson isn't a $10 million player anymore, but he's absolutely like a $7.5 million player and him at $5 million is a discount.

Why did the Kings trade Dubois for nothing? He was two years removed 27 goals in 73 games as a big bodied center who played almost 19 minutes a night! Not to mention, when you deduct the bad money they took on, Dubois was only owed 43.75M in cap over 7 seasons. That's an average of 6.25M per season! You're telling me there was no market for a 27 goal center at 6.25M? That's insane, Toffoli is a 32 year old winger and he got 6M in free agency!

Figure out the above, and you'll figure out why there would be absolutely zero market for Karlsson in a trade. There might be a scenario where Pittsburgh can take back a bunch of bad contracts, retain money, and get nothing in return. There is not a market for them to get back legitimate assets outside of cap.

The league doesn't work that way. Cap is an asset. NMCs and certain contract structures like signing bonuses make trades very difficult. It's very unlikely there is the kind of trade people think there would be for Karlsson. The same people were shocked when San Jose had to retain and take back loads of bad money, and only got a (projected late) 1st for a (projected high) 3rd.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm a big Karlsson fan, so I would love to be wrong and have Pittsburgh trade him for Celebrini or something because then I could feel validated in that Karlsson is better than Doughty, but it's common sense to look at how cap is valued and how the trade market worked out last time around when Karlsson's performance was significantly better than it was this season and conclude that moving him even at half-retained will be nearly impossible, let alone moving him and getting value back.

Literally zero people are expecting that kind of return for Karlsson.

The reality with Karlsson is that he's a mid 30s guy worth about $7.5 million a year that is making $10 million a year. If he's retained down to half his salary, there would be a ton of interest in him. Maybe not right now after free agents have signed, but absolutely before the 2025 draft and before free agency in 2025 commences. The idea that the Penguins would just be happy to get out of $15 million that Karlsson is owed (while paying Karlsson the other $15 million) is just super dumb.

Why did the Kings trade Dubois for nothing? He was two years removed 27 goals in 73 games as a big bodied center who played almost 19 minutes a night! Not to mention, when you deduct the bad money they took on, Dubois was only owed 43.75M in cap over 7 seasons. That's an average of 6.25M per season! You're telling me there was no market for a 27 goal center at 6.25M? That's insane, Toffoli is a 32 year old winger and he got 6M in free agency!

Figure out the above, and you'll figure out why there would be absolutely zero market for Karlsson in a trade. There might be a scenario where Pittsburgh can take back a bunch of bad contracts, retain money, and get nothing in return. There is not a market for them to get back legitimate assets outside of cap.

The league doesn't work that way. Cap is an asset. NMCs and certain contract structures like signing bonuses make trades very difficult. It's very unlikely there is the kind of trade people think there would be for Karlsson. The same people were shocked when San Jose had to retain and take back loads of bad money, and only got a (projected late) 1st for a (projected high) 3rd.

Because Dubois had 7 years left at $8.5 million and was coming off a year of 40 points.

Your takes are just completely moronic in here for someone "who likes Karlsson". He wasn't even bad last year, he just wasn't worth $10 million a year.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The idea that teams would shy away from Karlsson at 3 years at $5 million, when guys like Montour are getting 7 years at $7 million a year, is absolute idiocy.

No it's not, it's reality. Read my above post with the Dubois comparison, or even just looking at the previous Karlsson trade as a historical comparison. Consider both the retention and the bad money contracts moved as a proxy for retention. Also consider Karlsson's performance prior to that trade and Karlsson's performance prior to this hypothetical trade out of Pittsburgh.

Historical trades back up what I am saying and go against what you are saying. People were saying the same thing as you are now last time he was traded, and they were shocked that he got nothing in return with Pittsburgh at that time dumping roughly the equivalent to them retaining half now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No it's not, it's reality. Read my above post with the Dubois comparison, or even just looking at the previous Karlsson trade as a historical comparison. Consider both the retention and the bad money contracts moved as a proxy for retention. Also consider Karlsson's performance prior to that trade and Karlsson's performance prior to this hypothetical trade out of Pittsburgh.

Historical trades back up what I am saying and go against what you are saying. People were saying the same thing as you are now last time he was traded, and they were shocked that he got nothing in return with Pittsburgh at that time dumping roughly the equivalent to them retaining half now.

The Dubois comparison is moronic because Dubois had 40 points last year and has forced his way off of multiple teams due to his shitty attitude. Karlsson's "bad" year is when he put up 56 points over a full season.

There are literally zero historic trades that support what you're saying. PLD's case was a player getting demoted to 4th line duty after having a horrendous first year of an 8 year, $8.5 million deal. How is Karlsson even remotely comparable to that?

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The Dubois comparison is moronic because Dubois had 40 points last year and has forced his way off of multiple teams due to his shitty attitude. Karlsson's "bad" year is when he put up 56 points over a full season.

There are literally zero historic trades that support what you're saying. PLD's case was a player getting demoted to 4th line duty after having a horrendous first year of an 8 year, $8.5 million deal. How is Karlsson even remotely comparable to that?

You're right, my takes are moronic. What was I thinking?!

 

[Empoleon8771]

You're right, my takes are moronic. What was I thinking?!

Karlsson had 4 years and $39 million left on his deal when San Jose traded him and they only retained about $5 million on that. They took on Granlund ($11 million in total), Rutta ($5 million in total) and Hoffman ($5 million in total), so they ended up saving $13 million ($39 million minus the $21 million and $5 million in retention) with the trade and got a 1st for it.

The idea that the Penguins would retain $15 million on Karlsson's deal to get literally nothing out of it is a downright moronic take. There's no other way to put it. It's just a superbly stupid argument to make. Regardless of whether you want to look at it from a money POV ($15 million in dead money is worth a ton of assets) or from Karlsson's POV (Karlsson at 3 years and $5 million is terrific value for him), it's just a stupid argument to make. Let's look at this from a third POV: the Penguins aren't a contending team anymore and are in the process of beginning a rebuild. Literally on what planet would they just agree to eat $15 million of Karlsson's deal just to get out of it? What's the purpose of doing that?

I'm calling your takes moronic because they are absolutely moronic. I'm not going to pretend Karlsson has this insane value, but to argue that the Penguins would retain half of his deal and get nothing back for him because "teams may not want him at 3 years and $5 million a year" is just silly.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Karlsson had 4 years and $39 million left on his deal when San Jose traded him and they only retained about $5 million on that. They took on Granlund ($11 million in total), Rutta ($5 million in total) and Hoffman ($5 million in total), so they ended up saving $13 million ($39 million minus the $21 million and $5 million in retention) with the trade and got a 1st for it.

The idea that the Penguins would retain $15 million on Karlsson's deal to get literally nothing out of it is a downright moronic take. There's no other way to put it. It's just a superbly stupid argument to make. Regardless of whether you want to look at it from a money POV ($15 million in dead money is worth a ton of assets) or from Karlsson's POV (Karlsson at 3 years and $5 million is terrific value for him), it's just a stupid argument to make.

Let's look at this from a third POV: the Penguins aren't a contending team anymore and are in the process of beginning a rebuild. Literally on what planet would they just agree to eat $15 million of Karlsson's deal just to get out of it? What's the purpose of doing tha?

No you're right, my takes were moronic. Just idiocy.

 

[CanadienShark]

except for Pittsburgh apparently according to your OP

I'm not sure how Pittsburgh can cut his AAV in half for themselves... Because that's what OP is suggesting - Karlsson at $5m, not $10m.

 

[AslanRH]

I'm not sure how Pittsburgh can cut his AAV in half for themselves... Because that's what OP is suggesting - Karlsson at $5m, not $10m.

I explained it in a later post.
I get why Pitt would make the move because a $5m EK should garner a good return, but my response was to "every team" wanting EK.
I can think of a few contenders alone that don't need what he brings even at $5m such as the Avs factoring in what they would have to give up. Not sure many a rebuilder would need him either if it cost good futures.

 

[McSuper]

karlsson sucks balls

So Nurse and Karlsson should be an even trade.

The idea that teams would shy away from Karlsson at 3 years at $5 million, when guys like Montour are getting 7 years at $7 million a year, is absolute idiocy.

I would take Karlsson at 50%. Ceci + 2025 or 2026 first. Flyers get one of them + ? Would have to be picks. We can't afford to send prospects back. JJ just went out and add prospect for the up coming cap crunch with Draisaitl, Bouchard and McDavid new contracts coming up.

 

[zenator]

3 years of Karlsson at $5 mil per year is worth a lot. A 1st round pick plus a good prospect?

 

[29Potvin]

@ 5mil I would take him on the Leafs.
We need a puck mover that can QB the PP and anyone who thinks he has no value at 5mil for the next three years is lying and clearly doesn't watch the NHL and just missed the contracts that were handed out on July 1

 

[KingsFan7824]

The idea that teams would shy away from Karlsson at 3 years at $5 million, when guys like Montour are getting 7 years at $7 million a year, is absolute idiocy.

One is a trade, one is a UFA. NMC involved. One is 34, one is 30. It wouldn't be easy to trade Montour now either. Not many teams Karlsson would go to have $5m in cap space. Then it has to fit. It didn't quite fit with Burns in SJ. It hasn't quite fit with Letang in Pit. Karlsson sort of has to be the guy, so that again decreases the amount of teams that would be in line.

And you don't get anything for a 34 year old in the NHL. Value pretty much stops around 25. Unless you get stupid lucky like Florida did with being able to deal Huberdeau for Tkachuk. If Tkachuk doesn't want out of Calgary, and/or Huberdeau has his average year, that deal doesn't happen. Any deal Pit makes with Karlsson would be doing him a favor, to try and get him to a ready made contender, rather than getting any actual value to the franchise. Unfortunately for the Pens, even sitting where they're at, they're about as much of a contender as 80% of the league. Which is why they traded for Karlsson in the first place.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I dunno. Maybe he has that Value?

I could see the Leafs paying a premium for him, but they just signed OEL. (Maybe ownership had them limited to 1 washed up has-been a year).

He's not the hot commodity he once was, but at $5m AAV it's mitigating the risk enough to make it interesting.

Maybe a top prospect or a late 1st? You'd have to ask Leaf fans. They're max cap so they'd still need to make moves to clear the $5m

 

[Duffy13]

Can't happen this year we already have 3 retained salaries in Petry, Smith and Jack Johnson buyout

Next year could be more interesting on this front if Karlsson wants out due to his full NMC.

Pittsburgh can only retain 37% of Karlsson as SJ has the other 13% so his Cap hit for anyone taking him on is 6.3m, however his actual salary would be 5.7m then 4.8 the next year. Making an owner more likely to approve a trade, however these trades usually go towards teams looking to stay around low to mid Cap range, and are not competing, meaning Karlsson won't want to go to a team with the same situation competitively as the Pens will be in.

I think if Karlsson wants out it will be on his demands and not the teams.

I don't see much movement this year, but next year can see guys like Rakell moved as his actual pay will be below his cap hit, and Graves actual pay starts to meet then drop below his cap hit, get moved. I don't see a movement clause on Rusts contract and he could be traded if that's the case as well,

IF Dubas decides to go all in on the rebuild. This will probably affect the Core in some regards. I can see Crosby staying, Malkin Retiring ala LTIR magic, and Letang wanting out if larger pieces start to get moved. It is possible Crosby moves on, however it would be on his choice alone, and I do see him being the guy that helps the team by getting something in return... unlike Sundin and the Leafs.

Basically this year is running it back like the last couple years, then the contracts get easier to move, hopefully there's performance improvements to make the moves more beneficial for the Pens, if not those mentioned pieces will still help restock the youth pipeline quite a bit.

Then we get McKenna and in 5 years or less we start adding to our cup haul and become lords of the hated again.

I can't wait.

 

[SomeDude]

Can't happen this year we already have 3 retained salaries in Petry, Smith and Jack Johnson buyout

Buyout penalties do not count towards the 3 retainment spots. It’s just dead cap. Regardless, Pens should need that last spot to retain on someone like Pettersson or Eller at the deadline.

 

[Duffy13]

Buyout penalties do not count towards the 3 retainment spots. It’s just dead cap. Regardless, Pens should need that last spot to retain on someone like Pettersson or Eller at the deadline.

RIGHT!!! yes, good call

 

[The Shrike]

Would Fenway Sports Group even allow a rebuild yet, or are they waiting for the end of the Crosby era in Pittsburgh before giving Dubas the green light?

 

[Captain Controversy]

Okay, I'll bite.
Ceci + Savoie + 1st in 2026

For Karlsson @ 50 percent retention

 

[Gurglesons]

Seems really weird that people think EK65 at 50% wouldn't return at minimum a 1st. He returned a 1st in the trade to PIT.

 

[OversKy]

Pair him with a first rounder and send him back to Sharks.

Only way I'd want that bum back. We suckered the Pens so bad lmfao. That 100 pt season was such a mirage and Kyle is a fool. I don't like the way he handles himself either, good riddance.