Value of: Erik Karlsson @ 50%

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Norris for Karlsson no retention lets do it

Assuming Karlsson has a decent season, Chabot for Karlsson makes more sense if they completely botch this season and Tkachuk decides to leave.

It wouldn't be about the on ice thing, it would be a big marketing pitch to the fanbase if Tkachuk (via leveraging his NMC to get a trade) and/or Giroux (via UFA) leave.

Lateral move for both sides on the ice, but the Penguins get the easier contract to manage because it's not buyout proof. Chabot is also younger and could possibly factor in with their team long term if they can figure out how to get him back to his peak.

Taking Norris to dump Karlsson doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Either Norris proves his shoulder is dealt with and he is still a top 6 C, in which case the Senators wouldn't do it - or Norris proves he is an albatross, in which case Pittsburgh wouldn't do it. Chabot and Karlsson both have similar term and money. Chabot's contract is more favourable because he doesn't have a NMC or signing bonuses so there is more room for Pittsburgh to figure something out and possible get an asset for him down the road.

 

[OversKy]

EK65 was the 2nd best player on the Penguins after Crosby last season.

EK65 was great for the Sharks before their competitive window ended.

I would assume GMs aren't so dumb they couldn't see that.

I think EK65 was good when he was with the Sharks before the nosedive but not great. You could literally do whatever you wanted in front of the net by just being there. He wouldn't even stick lift guys it was like a cheat code to get free goals. He also still had all his other warts and wasn't effective with Brent Burns.

 

[Mike Jones]

With the Pens rebuilding, what would the value of Erik Karlsson be at 50%?
Pens would be looking for draft picks and prospects. No cap dumps or older roster players.

Sorry but to take on Karlsson (even at 50% of his current salary) something has to go back the other way.

A deal would probably include a pick/prospect and roster player in exchange for Karlsson (retained).

 

[Sysreq]

This thread speaks volumes about that franchise killing contract Doug Wilson gave out. When he was in San Jose, even when we were trying to contend, he just seemed check out. Very capable player but so often it just seemed like he was checked out. Was in scrimmage mode more often than note. Just going through the motions to collect a pay check. Every once and a while he would "turn it on" but it wasn't every game and that didn't change in the play offs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This thread speaks volumes about that franchise killing contract Doug Wilson gave out. When he was in San Jose, even when we were trying to contend, he just seemed check out. Very capable player but so often it just seemed like he was checked out. Was in scrimmage mode more often than note. Just going through the motions to collect a pay check. Every once and a while he would "turn it on" but it wasn't every game and that didn't change in the play offs.

This is just your bias against Karlsson rather than anything remotely resembling the reality of the situation. You really think he was checked out the one season the team was contending even though he played about half the season on a pulled groin that required surgery after the playoffs? That's not what a checked out athlete does.

 

[The Duck Knight]

I, on the other hand, would be completely fine with the Pens retaining 50% on EK AND taking back cap dumps or bad money, barring some notable exceptions.

For example, how much would Edmonton pay in futures to switch Ceci at 3.25M (and some asset to even out the $$$) for EK at 5M? Or how much would Vegas pay to swap Pietro at his salary for EK at 8M? These are just random examples, but I would think any contending team would jump at the chance for a major upgrade when they're within striking distance of the cup.

If some team is willing to take a (still) premiere player in the middle of their contention window, and salary is the only thing holding it back, I dont care. Take the money back. Before EK's value drops off for good. The Pens have shown their direction, clearly, with Hayes. I'm fine embracing that direction with zero stipulations.

Petro wouldn't waive his NMC for one. Secondly Vegas would have no interest in that deal. They've already got one sheltered offensive D who doesn't PK in Theodore. They don't need another in EK.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The most apples to apples comparison we have to Karlsson in recent memory was Brent Burns. Burns was 36 and coming off a year with 54 points in 82 games, while he had 3 years left at $8 million a year. He was retained down to $5.3 million a year and was traded for basically a 3rd and 4th.

If they're retain Karlsson down to 50% now, they'd likely get more back than the Burns trade but not wildly so. My guess is that Karlsson would bring back basically 2 2nds without the Penguins taking any money back, or would get a 1st and a meh prospect if they took on a short term deal.

Purely in terms of value (don't think Edmonton can make this work with the cap), I imagine a trade would be something like Karlsson at 50% to Edmonton for Ceci, a 1st and 4th. At that point, it's better off just to keep him and wait for him to have a stronger year.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

I don't agree with that. Every team would want EK as their top defensemen for $5M a year for the next 3 years.

Doesn't matter if they don't have the cap space. This isn't difficult to follow. Almost any deal, especially at this point for most teams needs to be near equal money out as in.

Pittsburgh would max the return based on retention and taking cap back. The worse the contract coming back the further increase to the cost to get Karlsson.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Nurse for 50 percent retained Karlsson. Fair deal. Maybe the Oilers add a 4th rounder to balance it out.

The most apples to apples comparison we have to Karlsson in recent memory was Brent Burns. Burns was 36 and coming off a year with 54 points in 82 games, while he had 3 years left at $8 million a year. He was retained down to $5.3 million a year and was traded for basically a 3rd and 4th.

If they're retain Karlsson down to 50% now, they'd likely get more back than the Burns trade but not wildly so. My guess is that Karlsson would bring back basically 2 2nds without the Penguins taking any money back, or would get a 1st and a meh prospect if they took on a short term deal.

Purely in terms of value (don't think Edmonton can make this work with the cap), I imagine a trade would be something like Karlsson at 50% to Edmonton for Ceci, a 1st and 4th. At that point, it's better off just to keep him and wait for him to have a stronger year.

I think you could get more than that return if 50% and eating Ceci. Even still we can't make that cap work without jettisoning Kane and he has a full NMC till March 1st.

With Bouchard's offensive emergence I think any Karlsson to Edm ship has already sailed. We need a 2nd pairing RD, but more a D in the Ekholm mold.