Traded Erik Brännström - D - Part III

[bert]

Brannstrom never played junior. He was in the AHL. His shot rate per 60 is 2nd highest on the team at even strength.

Brannstrom has 0 goals and 7 assists in 37 games playing on the pp and in offensive situations and is a liability defending. He played in the world Jr's and wasn't close to as good as Ellis. Ellis looks like he should have been drafted higher than he did Brannstrom looks like a reach. If anyone actually thinks he is tracking to be Ellis then you probably havent watched Ellis. His compete is just way higher and he is a much more physical stronger person in general. A much better player.

Not every player has it, that's ok Brannstrom doesn't have the physical abilities to be successful at this level.

 

[Micklebot]

If you look at Brannstrom's draft year, he's in the middle of 5 straight D men being drafted. Of those comparables, he's played the most NHL games and has the most NHL points. He's also the youngest of those 5 players. By years end he'll have played 50 games averaging 20 minutes a night at 22 years old. Of course he has value.

There's lots of talk about needing to improve our defence. We're currently 23rd in the league in goals against and 28th in goals for and we've got further to climb in the goals for department to get to league average. We're a half goal a game below league average for goals for. Obviously our injuries are impacting that.

I just don't get the rush to move Brannstrom

I agree with you on this, but I think it likely stems from a couple things, first, people just don't like small D. You have to be pretty special to be a small D in this league and get respect. Second, I think with Chabot and Sanderson on the left side, people don't see a fit for Brannstrom long term. That really leaves us with two options, move him early when he still has value based on "potential", or hope that he realizes that potential before getting pushed down the lineup and losing his spot.

People just saw Logan Brown go from one of our top prospects to traded for a bag of pucks in a pretty short span (3rd on HFSens in 2019, 4th 2020, 11th to gone in 2021), so the fear is that when we finally do decide to move on from Brannstrom, the key piece we got back for Stone will become a 4rd round pick or something. Can't remember where I read it (or heard it) but somebody asked other teams scouts before the deadline what kind of value they thought a guy like Brannstrom had and the responses they got were not encouraging. That was prior to him getting a lot of usage this year, so maybe with more exposure things have changed, but that's likely part of where the rush comes from,

It's a bit like people wanting to move Tierney back in 2019-20. No long term fit, lets move him for a late first or 2nd even though we don't have guys quite ready to step in and take over his role. Instead we hung on and his value has tanked. Right about now, we probably would have been better moving him, but it's hindsight, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[JD1]

Brannstrom has 0 goals and 7 assists in 37 games playing on the pp and in offensive situations and is a liability defending. He played in the world Jr's and wasn't close to as good as Ellis. Ellis looks like he should have been drafted higher than he did Brannstrom looks like a reach. If anyone actually thinks he is tracking to be Ellis then you probably havent watched Ellis. His compete is just way higher and he is a much more physical stronger person in general. A much better player.

Not every player has it, that's ok Brannstrom doesn't have the physical abilities to be successful at this level.

Maybe my memory fails me but what I remember of Ellis in the world Juniors was he was a 7th d man used to play the PP. Ellis btw was not a full time NHL player until his d+5 season. He put up 44 points in his first 144 games. And he is 9 months older development wise, born in January as opposed to September. He also did not average 19+ minutes a night until his 5th season.

And I put absolutely zero stock in saying Brannstrom plays on the PP. Prior to Chabot being injured, he played pp2 and apart from Brannstrom not one single player on pp2 belongs on an NHL pp. Not one. Now that Batherson is back, you can say White does since he's been bumped there.

Idk, I think your comparing developing Brannstrom to developed Ellis. Looking at their early careers, they're pretty similar

 

[JD1]

I agree with you on this, but I think it likely stems from a couple things, first, people just don't like small D. You have to be pretty special to be a small D in this league and get respect. Second, I think with Chabot and Sanderson on the left side, people don't see a fit for Brannstrom long term. That really leaves us with two options, move him early when he still has value based on "potential", or hope that he realizes that potential before getting pushed down the lineup and losing his spot.

People just saw Logan Brown go from one of our top prospects to traded for a bag of pucks in a pretty short span (3rd on HFSens in 2019, 4th 2020, 11th to gone in 2021), so the fear is that when we finally do decide to move on from Brannstrom, the key piece we got back for Stone will become a 4rd round pick or something. Can't remember where I read it (or heard it) but somebody asked other teams scouts before the deadline what kind of value they thought a guy like Brannstrom had and the responses they got were not encouraging. That was prior to him getting a lot of usage this year, so maybe with more exposure things have changed, but that's likely part of where the rush comes from,

It's a bit like people wanting to move Tierney back in 2019-20. No long term fit, lets move him for a late first or 2nd even though we don't have guys quite ready to step in and take over his role. Instead we hung on and his value has tanked. Right about now, we probably would have been better moving him, but it's hindsight, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Sure there's a lot of validity to the small D man thing. Not what there used to be, but it's there. I don't buy the skating thing with Brannstrom at all. Skating for a D isn't about straight line going forward speed, not that you brought it up but I see it a lot.

The difference between Brannstrom and Brown is Brannstrom is actually playing in the NHL, something Brown never really did for us. I remember the first time I saw Brown play live. It was an exhibition game in 2019. I was pumped to see him and had spent the summer pumping his tires on the board. I knew after watching him, or shall I say I highly doubted, that he'd ever be an NHL player because he just didn't want to compete. I don't think that's an issue with Brannstrom

 

[DrSense]

Brannstrom has 0 goals and 7 assists in 37 games playing on the pp and in offensive situations and is a liability defending. He played in the world Jr's and wasn't close to as good as Ellis. Ellis looks like he should have been drafted higher than he did Brannstrom looks like a reach. If anyone actually thinks he is tracking to be Ellis then you probably havent watched Ellis. His compete is just way higher and he is a much more physical stronger person in general. A much better player.

Not every player has it, that's ok Brannstrom doesn't have the physical abilities to be successful at this level.

You're brushing over the comparison based on what Ellis is now, versus what Ellis was then. There is no sure thing Brannstrom will continue to develop like Ellis did between the age of 22-27, but he is most certainly on the same track up to now. He's also a considerably better skater than Ellis, which is no small thing.

 

[Sens Vader]

hes not very good

 

[bert]

You're brushing over the comparison based on what Ellis is now, versus what Ellis was then. There is no sure thing Brannstrom will continue to develop like Ellis did between the age of 22-27, but he is most certainly on the same track up to now. He's also a considerably better skater than Ellis, which is no small thing.

I absolutely don't agree. Ellis was better at the same age. If anyone is brushing over what Ellis was it's you. Brannstrom isn't close to as good a player at any point. Ellis has much better hockey sense and skill.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I was also heavily reliant on Ellis comparison, but they've been comparable until this year.

In his D+5 season, Ellis was established NHLer settling in physically too. Brannstrom still struggling heavily outside of his few offensive bursts.

Gotta think he's gone if there's at trade with somewhat value attached to it.

 

[bert]

Maybe my memory fails me but what I remember of Ellis in the world Juniors was he was a 7th d man used to play the PP. Ellis btw was not a full time NHL player until his d+5 season. He put up 44 points in his first 144 games. And he is 9 months older development wise, born in January as opposed to September. He also did not average 19+ minutes a night until his 5th season.

And I put absolutely zero stock in saying Brannstrom plays on the PP. Prior to Chabot being injured, he played pp2 and apart from Brannstrom not one single player on pp2 belongs on an NHL pp. Not one. Now that Batherson is back, you can say White does since he's been bumped there.

Idk, I think your comparing developing Brannstrom to developed Ellis. Looking at their early careers, they're pretty similar

That was Ellis's role when he was 17 at the WJC making and contributing on one of the best WJC teams ever. The only other 17 year old that year was Evander Kane. Brannstrom did not play at the WJC at that age. Ellis played two more years after that as a top pairing d man. In total Ellis has 25 points in 19 total games. He is one of the all time best Canadian performers at the WJC.

He scores goals at a much higher rate and in general is a bigger player. Defensively it's not close and never has been Ellis is a very good defender and an elite shot blocker.

You may not want to take stock in Brannstroms pp opportunities and all the offensive zone faceoffs He is put out for but he has done absolutely nothing with it.. Ellis had to play behind Weber and Josi while competing for icetime with Seth Jones. He never got these chances and produced more. It's wishful thinking to believe these two players are similar. The only thing they have is common is they are short.

 

[DrSense]

I absolutely don't agree. Ellis was better at the same age. If anyone is brushing over what Ellis was it's you. Brannstrom isn't close to as good a player at any point. Ellis has much better hockey sense and skill.

No issues with your opinion, even if we disagree a bit. I don't disagree Ellis had a better D+5 year, but a lot of that is context. Ellis was playing on a D unit with Weber, Josi, Ekholm, Seth Jones and Kevin Klein, typically paired with one of the top guys with somewhat protected minutes. Ekholm ultimately became his regular partner going forward, which is a helluva good situation. Ellis was the 5th best d-man on that team, which is more about the quality of D than Ellis, but he was heavily protected and able to grow into his role with tremendous support. It was a really great situation to have your first full NHL season.

In Brannstrom's 5th year he has mostly played with Josh Brown or similar and is the 3rd best D on our team - one of the worst defensive units in the league. He didn't have as consistent and stable a year as Ellis, but when he played with Chabot on the right side, there were nights he was one of our best players. He has flashed terrific potential this year. They are not exact clones of each other, so the comparison is meant to say they will mirror each other, but it's context on being patient with D. I agree Ellis is more of a steadier D who makes the simpler and smarter play at times (certainly to this point), but Brannstrom is much more dynamic of a skater, which brings with it another layer of potential. And he really is a terrific passer and puck possession guy. I'm actually really happy with what he has shown this year. And I really doubt if we put the Ryan Ellis from his D+5 season on this team with Josh Brown he would have flourished. Will Brannstrom end up as good? Who knows, certainly a risk he won't. But progress has been similar IMO.

Also, keep in mind based on birthday, Brannstrom is closer to a D+4 guy given he is 9 months younger than Ellis at the same time. Not something to get too caught up on, but another layer of consideration.

 

[JD1]

That was Ellis's role when he was 17 at the WJC making and contributing on one of the best WJC teams ever. The only other 17 year old that year was Evander Kane. Brannstrom did not play at the WJC at that age. Ellis played two more years after that as a top pairing d man. In total Ellis has 25 points in 19 total games. He is one of the all time best Canadian performers at the WJC.

He scores goals at a much higher rate and in general is a bigger player. Defensively it's not close and never has been Ellis is a very good defender and an elite shot blocker.

You may not want to take stock in Brannstroms pp opportunities and all the offensive zone faceoffs He is put out for but he has done absolutely nothing with it.. Ellis had to play behind Weber and Josi while competing for icetime with Seth Jones. He never got these chances and produced more. It's wishful thinking to believe these two players are similar. The only thing they have is common is they are short.

Birthdays play an important role in selection and eligibility for world Junior. Yes, Ellis played at 17, he also turned 18 in that tournament. Turned 19 and 20 in the next two. There's a big difference between just turned 17 and will turn 18 during the tournament. In Ellis's case, his birthday is January 3 so born 3 days earlier he's too old to play that 3rd year. That's a different situation than a kid born in September. Ellis might have been the oldest kid in the tournament his 3rd year.

I'm not knocking Ellis. It'd be great if Brannstrom becomes an Ellis. As of right now, Brannstrom is playing more minutes at a younger age than Ellis did. He also played higher level hockey at comparable ages all the way thru. Playing in the A as a teenager, playing more games and more minutes as a young NHLer.

I have no idea what happens with Brannstrom. We've got Chabot and Sanderson. They'll both be more valuable and personally I haven't really liked what I've seen of Brannstrom on the right. Brannstrom is going to be a decent NHL player. If guys think he should be moved because LD is a position of strength, sure that makes. On the other hand, guys saying move him while he still has value makes little sense to me

And because it is the Ottawa way, we get screwed on Sanderson's injury robbing us of the opportunity to watch him in 20 NHL games to see where he's at which may result in moving Brannstrom with a lot less information available

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Brann - Zub is probably the best 2nd pair we've had in 10 years. Which I know isn't saying much but it is something.

It is a good situation next year where we can slot Sanderson/Brann up or down based on their play.

 

[NB613]

Brann - Zub is probably the best 2nd pair we've had in 10 years. Which I know isn't saying much but it is something.

It is a good situation next year where we can slot Sanderson/Brann up or down based on their play.

Couldn’t agree more. All that’s missing is the addition serviceable veteran D to complement Chabot for 1-2 years

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I'm not seeing the hype around him. Maybe if I watched his play in isolation I would have some different conclusions but from what I've seen he doesn't have any standout traits. Without those traits it is hard to figure out what role he could really excel at and one that he could securely hold and not be regularly challenged internally for.

Defensively, we know that he is on the smaller side, so ideally he would have some quite pronounced traits to compensate for any deficiencies his lack of size would bring. He isn't that smart positionally, he doesn't have great defensive IQ, he doesn't really outsmart players, use deception or have excellent vision to find ways out of difficult situations or exploit the attack of the opposing team. He is a good skater with decent agility but he doesn't really use that to maneuver the defensive zone in any highly noticeable way. He also doesn't have high end poise as he is prone to making bad plays with the puck that lead to turnovers. I am not saying he is bad in any of these categories, just if you put them on a spectrum from average to elite, that most of those traits would end up closer to the average end.

Offensively, I don't find him to be very aware of his strengths and weaknesses which in turn effects his decision making. He has a pretty weak shot and I've noticed that he tends to shoot in a lot of situations he shouldn't. He takes a lot of shots from bad angles where the goalie is clearly covering the post, he takes a lot of shots through traffic that tend to hit shinpads and lead to turnovers or allows the goalie to hold the puck and stop any offensive pressure. His passing is better than his shot but even then, he is not really an elite passer. I've noticed a handful of times on the powerplay where he makes passes to someone like Norris and it takes 3 attempts to get the shot off. It is not like Norris gets the puck right where he wants it but decides to pass it back to try and catch the goalie moving. It is more of the puck not being in the right place and Norris sending it back to him to try and get the pass right.

I think he is an NHL d man and can kind of serve a role but I am not confident that his upside is vastly higher than what he is currently showing. He can certainly improve on the traits I have listed but I am not sure how much improvement we can expect and more importantly I don't know what role he is best suited to play. Clarity on that role would be very important in determining what kind of development path he should pursue and what his long term prospects are in terms of the player he can eventually become.

 

[Bileur]

Couldn’t agree more. All that’s missing is the addition serviceable veteran D to complement Chabot for 1-2 years

I’d be happy with this going into next season:

Chabot-XX
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic
Holden

 

[aragorn]

I going to guess that Brannstrom is moved either at the draft or over the summer & the defence looks like this to start next season. They are most likely going to move a D, but whether it's MDZ, Brannstrom or Zaitsev remains to be seen. The easiest one to move might be Brannstrom which is why I think he goes first.

Zaitsev & that contract will be hard to move or bought out & the other three UFAs will probably get moved by the TDL next season. If Hamonic & Holden have another good yr it might be worth it to hang on to them for another yr & move on from MDZ & Zaitsev asap.

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Hamonic
MDZ - Holden/Zaitsev

 

[Micklebot]

I’d be happy with this going into next season:

Chabot-XX
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic
Holden

Honestly, I'd be happy to slide all the RD up one spot and play Holden in the last RD spot if it means no more Zaitsev...

 

[Sensinitis]

Honestly, I'd be happy to slide all the RD up one spot and play Holden in the last RD spot if it means no more Zaitsev...

Same here, and Thomson might win a full time spot next season sooner rather than later

 

[NB613]

Honestly, I'd be happy to slide all the RD up one spot and play Holden in the last RD spot if it means no more Zaitsev...

Agree except that with injuries (inevitable), would rather have an additional reliable D to count on - especially if goal is to make playoffs.

 

[Icelevel]

Agree except that with injuries (inevitable), would rather have an additional reliable D to count on - especially if goal is to make playoffs.

Thomson and or JBD will be in

 

[BankStreetParade]

I think this kid is playing out the last few games of his career with the Sens. There's nothing really there. An offensive defenseman with his defensive liabilities needs to put up big points to stay in lineups and so far he's not shown the capability, even with his recent string of heavy minutes and prominent PP time.

Draft and development teams like the Senators can't afford to continue developing players until they become zero value assets. Sell him off to someone else who's buying that story and let them try to figure it out. We've had too many players over the years where the team thought a little more development time would help them blossom before those players lost all value. That can't be a thing anymore. Every asset in an organization with our limitations needs to be maximized. Find the best trade you can make for him and ship him out.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

He's a pretty big bust

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Rough game today. But another game of him
Playing real minutes and the defence didn’t look terrible

 

[OD99]

Was at the game and he was just off on every aspect today.

Odd decisions with the puck, tentative skating and just seemed out of sorts. Not surprising for a 22 year old D but pretty clearly his worst game in a long time.

 

[Ouroboros]

Swedish Chris Wideman. People are going to flip their wigs when the Sens waive him out of camp next fall.