Traded Erik Brännström - D - Part III

[OD99]

Not even close.

Which way? You agree or disagree?

I think the issue as I see it is that some don't count the above average puck handling and transitions that Brann bring to the table so when they look at D zone mistakes that happens in a vacuum.

To me he brings far more to each game than those others so immediately is an upgrade.

Put it another way. Can anyone here imagine a scenario where Mete, Brown or Zaitsev lead the team in minutes?

Brann getting those minutes has nothing to do with his pure defensive play and everything to do with his overall impact.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Unfortunately for his boosters in the fanbase, this guy has no future with this team. What role will he play that justifies keeping him? He's not playing ahead of Chabot or Sanderson. He can play PP2 until Sanderson is ready to take over the duties there and then what? And even more than that who does he play against? He's going to be a 3rd pairing guy going up against big 3rd and 4th lines around the league? The guys who play with energy and reckless abandon on the forecheck? Those are gonna be the guys he logs 80% of his icetime against? I'm just not sure I see the results materializing in that near term future for him, so what's the point of keeping him around? Shift him for a scoring forward who can bolster your skill in the lineup. That's far more valuable to this team than Brannstrom patrolling the 3rd pairing hoping for injuries so he can get a more prominent, but always temporary, role.

 

[OD99]

Unfortunately for his boosters in the fanbase, this guy has no future with this team. What role will he play that justifies keeping him? He's not playing ahead of Chabot or Sanderson. He can play PP2 until Sanderson is ready to take over the duties there and then what? And even more than that who does he play against? He's going to be a 3rd pairing guy going up against big 3rd and 4th lines around the league? The guys who play with energy and reckless abandon on the forecheck? Those are gonna be the guys he logs 80% of his icetime against? I'm just not sure I see the results materializing in that near term future for him, so what's the point of keeping him around? Shift him for a scoring forward who can bolster your skill in the lineup. That's far more valuable to this team than Brannstrom patrolling the 3rd pairing hoping for injuries so he can get a more prominent, but always temporary, role.

So you are saying he could use his ability against only 3rd liners? He can leverage his elusiveness and transition passing against players who want to only grind it out in the offensive zone?

I don't see why that is a problem?

In fact the entire thought process about Brann being unable to play on the 3rd pair because he isn't big enough is so old school it isn't funny.

If we really must have a big D on the 3rd pair then by all means let's do it - what's the problem?

 

[BankStreetParade]

So you are saying he could use his ability against only 3rd liners? He can leverage his elusiveness and transition passing against players who want to only grind it out in the offensive zone?

I don't see why that is a problem?

In fact the entire thought process about Brann being unable to play on the 3rd pair because he isn't big enough is so old school it isn't funny.

If we really must have a big D on the 3rd pair then by all means let's do it - what's the problem?

I think you're confusing open ice elusiveness with explosiveness and elusiveness in the defensive zone where there's always traffic and bodies. He really excels at the former and struggles a bit with the latter. I haven't really seen much from his game this year where his zone exits with large forecheckers bearing down on him has resulted in much going the other way. Maybe he's been a victim of poor coverage by his forwards or by a general lack of skill after the first handful of talent on the roster but his game has really not resulted in much positive offensive creation. Even beyond points, of which he has produced surprisingly few, I haven't seen much in his effective transition game that has resulted in an abundance of chances and missed opportunities.

Skating through open ice and making guys miss? Definitely pretty good at that but he sees those opportunities materialize in a very limited capacity currently. Obviously Holden is significantly more experienced than he is but even with his slow and steady game he's far far more effective at virtually every aspect.

 

[SlapJack]

Brutal take.

Not really. How many times do you see a guy like Brown get the puck in the offensive zone and just dump it in the corner when faced with the slightest amount of pressure? Whereas a guy like Brannstrom will make a play to maintain possession most of the time.

The safe play is basically a turnover that isn't "bad" defensively, but it's the type of stuff that barely capable NHLers have to do so they don't get burned. Maintaining possession is the difficult play that the more skilled players can do.

Brown won't get raked over the coals for that dull ass play, but Brannstrom will get ripped for the 1 time out of 10 he tries to keep possession and loses it.

Brannstrom should still be criticized for playing poorly, but yes he does deserve more rope than a guy who at his best is barely mediocre

 

[GCK]

Which way? You agree or disagree?

I think the issue as I see it is that some don't count the above average puck handling and transitions that Brann bring to the table so when they look at D zone mistakes that happens in a vacuum.

To me he brings far more to each game than those others so immediately is an upgrade.

Put it another way. Can anyone here imagine a scenario where Mete, Brown or Zaitsev lead the team in minutes?

Brann getting those minutes has nothing to do with his pure defensive play and everything to do with his overall impact.

Brannstrom does one thing really well, move the puck. He’s okay in the O zone and will likely get better there as he gets older. Brannstrom however is a bad defender so when he isn’t generating offence he is a massive liability, he basically becomes Mete.

Brown and Zaitsev have different roles. When Zaitsev isn’t defending well he is a massive liabilit, same with Brown. Thankfully, Brown has played fairly well this year while Zaitsev has been a train wreck.

The truth of the matter is all 3 need to be upgraded upon within their specified roles.

Sanderson looks like he can move the puck and defend very well.

Thomson and JBD look like upgrades on Zaitsev and Brown.

With Holden signed our best 4 D going into next season looks like Chabot, Zub, Sanderson and Holden. Thomson or JBD take another spot so it’s Zaitsev vs Brannstrom vs JBD IMO. I’d take Brannstrom for another year but that’s just my opinion.

 

[GCK]

Not really. How many times do you see a guy like Brown get the puck in the offensive zone and just dump it in the corner when faced with the slightest amount of pressure? Whereas a guy like Brannstrom will make a play to maintain possession most of the time.

The safe play is basically a turnover that isn't "bad" defensively, but it's the type of stuff that barely capable NHLers have to do so they don't get burned. Maintaining possession is the difficult play that the more skilled players can do.

Brown won't get raked over the coals for that dull ass play, but Brannstrom will get ripped for the 1 time out of 10 he tries to keep possession and loses it.

Brannstrom should still be criticized for playing poorly, but yes he does deserve more rope than a guy who at his best is barely mediocre

Almost never actually, he almost always gets the puck toward the net.

Interesting fact Brannstrom has 33 SOG in 420 minutes at 5v5 + PP. Josh Brown has 32 SOG in 440 minutes at 5 v5 + PP. I bet you thought that would be much different. Now factor in Ozone vs Dzone starts and you have to start questioning what you think your eyes are seeing.

 

[LeProspector]

 

[OD99]

I think you're confusing open ice elusiveness with explosiveness and elusiveness in the defensive zone where there's always traffic and bodies. He really excels at the former and struggles a bit with the latter. I haven't really seen much from his game this year where his zone exits with large forecheckers bearing down on him has resulted in much going the other way. Maybe he's been a victim of poor coverage by his forwards or by a general lack of skill after the first handful of talent on the roster but his game has really not resulted in much positive offensive creation. Even beyond points, of which he has produced surprisingly few, I haven't seen much in his effective transition game that has resulted in an abundance of chances and missed opportunities.

Skating through open ice and making guys miss? Definitely pretty good at that but he sees those opportunities materialize in a very limited capacity currently. Obviously Holden is significantly more experienced than he is but even with his slow and steady game he's far far more effective at virtually every aspect.

I'm not really talking about generating offence but controlled zone exits and completed passes to clear the zone.

He has enough elusiveness to calm a play down and try to make a proper outlet pass whereas the other guys mainly dump it out.

Offensive zone is the same - he doesn't shoot a lot but also doesnt mindlessly dump it in - he looks to hit an open man so we keep possession.

Either way I don't think he is going to a star I just don't understand the zest to get rid of him. If he had a steady D partner I think he would be an above average 3rd pair guy.

 

[OD99]

Almost never actually, he almost always gets the puck toward the net.

Interesting fact Brannstrom has 33 SOG in 420 minutes at 5v5 + PP. Josh Brown has 32 SOG in 440 minutes at 5 v5 + PP. I bet you thought that would be much different. Now factor in Ozone vs Dzone starts and you have to start questioning what you think your eyes are seeing.

He said Brann would make a play not shoot the puck on net.

How may completed passes does Brann have compared to Brown in any zone? Keeping the puck is vital in the NHL now and the more Brann does that when Bath/Norris/Stu, etc...are on the ice the more points he will start to get.

 

[GCK]

He said Brann would make a play not shoot the puck on net.

How may completed passes does Brann have compared to Brown in any zone? Keeping the puck is vital in the NHL now and the more Brann does that when Bath/Norris/Stu, etc...are on the ice the more points he will start to get.

I would certainly hope Brannstrom has a lot more completed passes than Brown, although that would be a good stat to look at. You really shouldn’t be using Josh Brown as the bar to climb over to prove Brannstrom’s offensive skill.

 

[Yak]

Should ove Branny to a winger. I am serious!...ha,ha

Unless he gets a Larry Robinson or Jaques Martin as defense coach he is in trouble.

You can pair him with a big /physical defensemen which we don't have in our system. I don't see JBD or Thompson being a good pairing for him

He has to be a 3rd pairing defensemen and you can't have him going up against other teams top lines or their checking lines. This means limited minutes and time on the power play.

He is a one dimensional player, he is may turn out to be the Hoffman of defense but his offense upside we've not even seen yet.

I think we should focus on getting Chabby a good partner or physical vet defensemen and not one of these over the hill PD specials.

We may just not be a good fit for Branny and another team might be. We need to figure this out fast while he still has value.

 

[OD99]

I would certainly hope Brannstrom has a lot more completed passes than Brown, although that would be a good stat to look at. You really shouldn’t be using Josh Brown as the bar to climb over to prove Brannstrom’s offensive skill.

You made the comparison, I commented on it.

Outside of that Brannstrom just moves the puck well compared to most on our team...which is why I don't get the rush to move him.

 

[Micklebot]

Almost never actually, he almost always gets the puck toward the net.

Interesting fact Brannstrom has 33 SOG in 420 minutes at 5v5 + PP. Josh Brown has 32 SOG in 440 minutes at 5 v5 + PP. I bet you thought that would be much different. Now factor in Ozone vs Dzone starts and you have to start questioning what you think your eyes are seeing.

There's a couple things going on here one, our PP system actually discourages shots by the Dman from the point, opting instead to get shots from the forwards far more, Chabot for example sees his shot rate drop about 40% when on the PP, down to about where Brannstrom's shot rate at 5v5 is, so while you've grouped PP and ES to try and make it seem like the comparison should favour Brannstrom, including PP actually hurts Dmen shot rates in our system.

At ES, Brannstrom is second on the team in Shots/60, behind only Chabot, Brown is actually 3rd on the team.

League wide, Brannstrom is in the top 90 in sh/60 at ES (300+ mins played), Josh Brown comes in a 133 out of 212, which is actually better than I'd have guessed he'd be, he's definitely shooting a lot more this year than last year (Brown ranked 209 out of 209 in sh/60 with 300+ mins played last year)

If I had to guess, I would think Brannstrom is more likely to maintain his shot rate going forward than Brown, he's been more consistent in that regard over his career. Brown's elevated shot this year seems anomalous.

One last thing regarding the bolded claim,

Brown's shot through rate (shots on net divided by shot attempts) is actually worse than Brannstrom's at ES,

Brannstrom has gotten 54.5% of his shot attempts on net while Brown has gotten 49.1%

 

[BankStreetParade]

I'm not really talking about generating offence but controlled zone exits and completed passes to clear the zone.

He has enough elusiveness to calm a play down and try to make a proper outlet pass whereas the other guys mainly dump it out.

Offensive zone is the same - he doesn't shoot a lot but also doesnt mindlessly dump it in - he looks to hit an open man so we keep possession.

Either way I don't think he is going to a star I just don't understand the zest to get rid of him. If he had a steady D partner I think he would be an above average 3rd pair guy.

He's a currency losing value. The window of opportunity where other teams still see big potential in him and think he's just looking for the right situation is quickly closing. We need a high level scoring forward on the team and parlaying your depth D into something like that makes far more sense than holding on to him to play marginal 3rd pairing minutes.

 

[BondraTime]

Time to move him was right after we drafted Sanderson.

 

[GCK]

There's a couple things going on here one, our PP system actually discourages shots by the Dman from the point, opting instead to get shots from the forwards far more, Chabot for example sees his shot rate drop about 40% when on the PP, down to about where Brannstrom's shot rate at 5v5 is, so while you've grouped PP and ES to try and make it seem like the comparison should favour Brannstrom, including PP actually hurts Dmen shot rates in our system.

At ES, Brannstrom is second on the team in Shots/60, behind only Chabot, Brown is actually 3rd on the team.

League wide, Brannstrom is in the top 90 in sh/60 at ES (300+ mins played), Josh Brown comes in a 133 out of 212, which is actually better than I'd have guessed he'd be, he's definitely shooting a lot more this year than last year (Brown ranked 209 out of 209 in sh/60 with 300+ mins played last year)

If I had to guess, I would think Brannstrom is more likely to maintain his shot rate going forward than Brown, he's been more consistent in that regard over his career. Brown's elevated shot this year seems anomalous.

One last thing regarding the bolded claim,

Brown's shot through rate (shots on net divided by shot attempts) is actually worse than Brannstrom's at ES,

Brannstrom has gotten 54.5% of his shot attempts on net while Brown has gotten 49.1%

Again I would hope all that is true. This all goes back to my initial statement that when Brannstrom isn’t generating offence then his terrible defensive play is a massive detriment to the team. I actually said that when Brannstrom isn’t generating offence he is basically just Victor Mete. At that point it went sideways and somehow became a Brannstrom vs Josh Brown debate which makes zero sense. 2 D with completely different roles and talent levels. Brannstrom better be miles better than Josh Brown as a puck mover and offence generator.

Brannstrom won’t be one of our 4 best D next year so he better be able to do something very well to stick on our bottom pair with his deficiencies.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

There's a couple things going on here one, our PP system actually discourages shots by the Dman from the point, opting instead to get shots from the forwards far more, Chabot for example sees his shot rate drop about 40% when on the PP, down to about where Brannstrom's shot rate at 5v5 is, so while you've grouped PP and ES to try and make it seem like the comparison should favour Brannstrom, including PP actually hurts Dmen shot rates in our system.

At ES, Brannstrom is second on the team in Shots/60, behind only Chabot, Brown is actually 3rd on the team.

League wide, Brannstrom is in the top 90 in sh/60 at ES (300+ mins played), Josh Brown comes in a 133 out of 212, which is actually better than I'd have guessed he'd be, he's definitely shooting a lot more this year than last year (Brown ranked 209 out of 209 in sh/60 with 300+ mins played last year)

If I had to guess, I would think Brannstrom is more likely to maintain his shot rate going forward than Brown, he's been more consistent in that regard over his career. Brown's elevated shot this year seems anomalous.

One last thing regarding the bolded claim,

Brown's shot through rate (shots on net divided by shot attempts) is actually worse than Brannstrom's at ES,

Brannstrom has gotten 54.5% of his shot attempts on net while Brown has gotten 49.1%

So we are comparing Brannstrom's offensive numbers to Josh Brown's now . Brannstrom better hope they notably higher.

 

[Micklebot]

So we are comparing Brannstrom's offensive numbers to Josh Brown's now . Brannstrom better hope they notably higher.

I actually compared it league wide too, and he did well relative to the league as a whole.

The use of Brown shot totals as a point of comparison was not mine, and it was misleading imo as what he is currently doing in regards to shot rates is not consistent with his career. Using the same metric you could argue Brown is providing offensive pressure better or similarly to Fox and Girard which is of course absurd to anybody with functioning eyes.

 

[SlapJack]

Lot of talk that Brannstrom isn't producing so he's basically a bust now. Anyone remember Chabot's first 20 or so games this year? His numbers were barely better except with a lot more ice time.

Bad luck Brannstrom finally gets a little bit of #1PP time, and lines up with Tierney and Sanford. Gee, thanks

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Lot of talk that Brannstrom isn't producing so he's basically a bust now. Anyone remember Chabot's first 20 or so games this year? His numbers were barely better except with a lot more ice time.

Bad luck Brannstrom finally gets a little bit of #1PP time, and lines up with Tierney and Sanford. Gee, thanks

You mean he was playing spectacular defensive hockey, though? When Brannstrom isn't producing, it's fine, but when he's also a turnstile, that's not fine.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Should ove Branny to a winger. I am serious!...ha,ha

Unless he gets a Larry Robinson or Jaques Martin as defense coach he is in trouble.

You can pair him with a big /physical defensemen which we don't have in our system. I don't see JBD or Thompson being a good pairing for him

He has to be a 3rd pairing defensemen and you can't have him going up against other teams top lines or their checking lines. This means limited minutes and time on the power play.

He is a one dimensional player, he is may turn out to be the Hoffman of defense but his offense upside we've not even seen yet.

I think we should focus on getting Chabby a good partner or physical vet defensemen and not one of these over the hill PD specials.

We may just not be a good fit for Branny and another team might be. We need to figure this out fast while he still has value.

Completely agreed. Brannstrom is a luxury player, and a really nice one at that, but not one that I think can really work on this team. The only guys who I can see him working with longterm is Sanderson or Kleven, but I don't think you want to bring them up with him because doing so will neuter their game.

Tough situation but I do think Brannstrom should still have decent value. In retrospect, and without retrospect, @BondraTime is 100% right - the time to move him was when Sanderson was drafted, but I don't mind that we gave/are giving him a shot to establish himself before the next wave arrives. If he established himself as a legit 4/5DMan who could run a PP2, who could allow us to ease our next wave in, that would be a huge win. Unfortunately, doesn't look very likely that that will be the case.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

This board can be hilarious at times.

A 22 year old D with 85 games in his NHL career has two bad games and it's bust time. Especially odd given that the 10 or so games before that we're good to very good. Do people expect 22 year old defensemen who are just breaking into the league to be paragons of consistency? That's crazy.

Look at what what Brannstrom has done compared to every other D in his draft (except 2 top 5 picks) and he is right on track. Tracking better than just about everyone except for Makar and Heiskanen. And he'd likely stack up even better if he'd been played more in the NHL, as he deserved.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Personally I’m not really down on Branstrom, and I agree that he’s got some time to get even better.

I think more importantly right now is whether he projects to be in our top 4 vs whether he carries that value to other teams.

If we don’t see him as a long term top 4 guy on our team, then we should explore trading him to a team that does, in exchange for a player who fits that description up front.

 

[HSF]

We are one Chabot injury away from him being logging the most mins on defense. There is an issue there and Brannstrom is not the problem.