Traded Erik Brännström - D - Part III

[PlayersLtd]

Do we know if/why Bran is scratched, or are we going by practice lines? Has the coach said anything?

Good question. Probably a little knee jerky here

 

[Micklebot]

Do we know if/why Bran is scratched, or are we going by practice lines? Has the coach said anything?

Coach typically isn't going to practice with a pairing or line pregame and then flip come gametime, I mean, it happens but usually the practice lines are a good indicator of who's getting scratched.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Dj to the media: “this is on me”
Dj behind closed doors: “this is definitely on brannstrom”

 

[Korpse]

Also, can someone explain what these stats mean in the context of his actual performance? Why is there such a disconnect between how many points he has vs. what the advanced stats say he should have?

A lot of it comes down to deployment. Brannstrom is sheltered. The coaching staff are carefully who he is put out against and where. We’ve been over this so many times in the last 10 years, it’s so tiring. There’s always a defensmen who usually plays a certain style that does well in a sheltered role and people become fascinated with that player. Wiercioch, Wideman, Wolanin etc

The coaching staff doesn’t like to start Brannstrom in the d zone. They are playing a team that plays a lot in their offensive zone. So they went with a player they can lean on a little more in the defensive zone.

Brannstrom is a particularly funny case becuase not only are his d zone starts low but his o zone starts are dwindling too, becuase frankly his impact that either end of the ice is limited.

 

[Micklebot]

A lot of it comes down to deployment. Brannstrom is sheltered. The coaching staff are carefully who he is put out against and where. We’ve been over this so many times in the last 10 years, it’s so tiring. There’s always a defensmen who usually plays a certain style that does well in a sheltered role and people become fascinated with that player. Wiercioch, Wideman, Wolanin etc

The coaching staff doesn’t like to start Brannstrom in the d zone. They are playing a team that plays a lot in their offensive zone. So they went with a player they can lean on a little more in the defensive zone.

Brannstrom is a particularly funny case becuase not only are his d zone starts low but his o zone starts are dwindling too, becuase frankly his impact that either end of the ice is limited.

I think you're putting too much stock into the impact of zone starts on overall metrics, oz/dz faceoffs combine for only about 1/4 of a players total shifts as 60% if shifts start on the fly, when you isolate the difference in OZ and DZ faceoffs of some who skews heavily its really just a fraction of their shifts, and on top of that the real benefit only is gained if your team wins the draw.

The impact Brannstrom has is mostly in transition, once the puck is gained he's pretty effective getting it up ice and starting the rush. Oddly that's an offensive skill from the DZ so many times it's not showing up on the scoresheet.

 

[Korpse]

I think you're putting too much stock into the impact of zone starts on overall metrics, oz/dz faceoffs combine for only about 1/4 of a players total shifts as 60% if shifts start on the fly, when you isolate the difference in OZ and DZ faceoffs of some who skews heavily its really just a fraction of their shifts, and on top of that the real benefit only is gained if your team wins the draw.

The impact Brannstrom has is mostly in transition, once the puck is gained he's pretty effective getting it up ice and starting the rush. Oddly that's an offensive skill from the DZ so many times it's not showing up on the scoresheet.

I don't think I'm putting much stock into it zone starts specifically. It's more to demonstrate that the coaching staff is careful of the situations he is put in. Which I don't think there's an argument for Brannstrom not being sheltered.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yes, he is.

Lowest quality of competition & highest offensive zone deployment among all Ottawa Senators (D).

That’s as sheltered as a defenseman can be.

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View attachment 664057

Looking at the QOC for the year, yes he is the most sheltered for the year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Where are they getting these stats from? moneypuck says he's 50th among D in On-Ice xG%, behind both Chabot (6th) and Chychrun (42nd). He's also 49th in Corsi, again behind Chabot (9th) and Chychrun (32nd).

Also, can someone explain what these stats mean in the context of his actual performance? Why is there such a disconnect between how many points he has vs. what the advanced stats say he should have?

One might be using 5 on 5 , one might be using ES, or one might be using all situations.
That’s why it really is essential people post that part, or no-one has a clue on the parameters being compared.

 

[Micklebot]

One might be using 5 on 5 , one might be using ES, or one might be using all situations.
That’s why it really is essential people post that part, or no-one has a clue on the parameters being compared.

They were posted, at least on the initial claim, 5v5 among D with 200+ mins, it's right in the tweet.

 

[Emrasie]

I guess they want a more defensive and bigger look on D against Seattle.

EB has better stats in term of defense than Holden this year, and is just better overall but yeah sure, as DJ would say "bigger is better".

NB: I find it 'funny' when your best asset is being a PP QB to not play on the PP, i thought DJ was just a stupid old mind coach to not even try to play 2D on PP but since he did it with J&J on PP2 day one, it's just that he is a stupid old mind coach who doesn't like small D and doesn't know how to use best abilities of his players. He is even worse than i thought. His firing can't come soon enought.

 

[God Says No]

Just holding a spot for Kleven

That could mean a long career with the Sens for Brannstrom then.

Good question. Probably a little knee jerky here

Probably. Scratching EB is a mistake, but let's not panic yet as he hasn't been officially scratched as the game hasn't started.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

The funny thing about the sheltered argument is the same metric shows that Brannstrom is only marginally more sheltered than Holden, but actually performs well in those sheltered minutes as opposed to the latter.

 

[BankStreetParade]

The funny thing about the sheltered argument is the same metric shows that Brannstrom is only marginally more sheltered than Holden, but actually performs well in those sheltered minutes as opposed to the latter.

But so what? Holden is 35 and washed. What do the advanced stats mean when the results don't come even close to matching up for Brannstrom? I genuinely don't understand what information they provide or how you use them to gain insight into his play. He has 1 goal and 8 assists and has been outscored by virtually every defenseman who's played close to the same amount of games as him this year. Are the stats saying play him more? Play him with someone else? Play him on his offside? Play him with specific lines? It's kinda confusing to be honest.

 

[God Says No]

But so what? Holden is 35 and washed. What do the advanced stats mean when the results don't come even close to matching up for Brannstrom? I genuinely don't understand what information they provide or how you use them to gain insight into his play. He has 1 goal and 8 assists and has been outscored by virtually every defenseman who's played close to the same amount of games as him this year. Are the stats saying play him more? Play him with someone else? Play him on his offside? Play him with specific lines? It's kinda confusing to be honest.

If you are purely looking at offensive numbers. His defensive number match up to the eye test.

 

[Korpse]

The funny thing about the sheltered argument is the same metric shows that Brannstrom is only marginally more sheltered than Holden, but actually performs well in those sheltered minutes as opposed the latter.

There's two sides of Erik Brannstrom away from Holden. The one where is paired with Thomas Chabot and the other where he is paired with Zub, Zaitsev or JBD. I'll let you guess what kind of deployment he gets with Chabot vs the other 3.

I like Brannstrom as a player more than Holden. I've really disliked Holden's body of work on the right side this year. That said heading into a match up with a team like Seattle I understand the reasoning to go with Holden over Brannstrom. Then again I don't view Brannstrom nearly as highly as some.

Among D pairs with a minimum of 100 minutes. Chabot-Brannstrom have the 7th highest rate of O zone starts. and the 11th lowest rate of D zone starts. Holden-Brannstrom have the 12th lowest rate of D zone starts as well.

329 min With Holden 57.46 CF% 58.24 xGF% 52.14 HDCF% 63.93 ozone start%
111 min With Chabot 59.91 CF% 58.40 xGF% 58.18 HDCF% 80.56 ozone start%
220 min with Zub, Zaitsev or JBD 48.07 CF% 51.37 xGF% 47.37 HDCF% 42.62 ozone start% (with Zub his XGF% is high compared with the other two)

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The funny thing about the sheltered argument is the same metric shows that Brannstrom is only marginally more sheltered than Holden, but actually performs well in those sheltered minutes as opposed to the latter.

Yeah but small

 

[Micklebot]

The funny thing about the sheltered argument is the same metric shows that Brannstrom is only marginally more sheltered than Holden, but actually performs well in those sheltered minutes as opposed to the latter.

I'm really not a fan of CF QOC, since CF% is far from an accurate representation of how strong your opponent is.

My preference, as flawed as it could be too, was always TOI QOC, I felt at least it was incorporating some subjective evaluation under the assumption that the coach plays who he considers better more,

I mean, the irony is the CF QOC metric both says that Brannstrom is the most sheltered on our team, while also being amount the toughest competition in the league when judging players on other teams QOC.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

But so what? Holden is 35 and washed. What do the advanced stats mean when the results don't come even close to matching up for Brannstrom? I genuinely don't understand what information they provide or how you use them to gain insight into his play. He has 1 goal and 8 assists and has been outscored by virtually every defenseman who's played close to the same amount of games as him this year. Are the stats saying play him more? Play him with someone else? Play him on his offside? Play him with specific lines? It's kinda confusing to be honest.

It’s not confusing at all. The stats are saying he’s a very good defensive third pairing d man. That’s it.

 

[Micklebot]

There's two sides of Erik Brannstrom away from Holden. The one where is paired with Thomas Chabot and the other where he is paired with Zub, Zaitsev or JBD. I'll let you guess what kind of deployment he gets with Chabot vs the other 3.

I like Brannstrom as a player more than Holden. I've really disliked Holden's body of work on the right side this year. That said heading into a match up with a team like Seattle I understand the reasoning to go with Holden over Brannstrom. Then again I don't view Brannstrom nearly as highly as some.

Well, with Chabot, it's typically in games where we are trailing and looking for offense, where as the rest of the time away from Holden is typically going to be a pairing for the full game.

What's interesting to me, is when he's been with any of Zaitsev, Zub or JBD, we don't seem to shy away from starting him in the DZ, with almost twice as many DZ faceoffs per 60 mins of icetime when compared with his time with Holden.

I think part of the issue is Holden just isn't all that good on his offside, but the usage for Brannstrom really does change depending on his partner.

 

[Korpse]

Well, with Chabot, it's typically in games where we are trailing and looking for offense, where as the rest of the time away from Holden is typically going to be a pairing for the full game.

What's interesting to me, is when he's been with any of Zaitsev, Zub or JBD, we don't seem to shy away from starting him in the DZ, with almost twice as many DZ faceoffs per 60 mins of icetime when compared with his time with Holden.

I think part of the issue is Holden just isn't all that good on his offside, but the usage for Brannstrom really does change depending on his partner.

All fair points, that said the time with Holden and Chabot without much defensively responsibility is carrying a lot of those metrics which is why it isn't super useful to posts those stats. I think it really brings into question whether those stats are a result of ability or circumstance.

What I did find with a little digging was most of the time Brannstrom played with those three was in the absence of Chabot, Zub or Sanderson. It would seem that most of his usage is more dependent on who is available rather than who he is paired with. Usually when Holden and Brannstrom played away from each other its when they have had to shuffle the pairings because of injury and it looks like there is more shared defensive responsibility among all pairs during those games.

I don't think rotating Holden and Brannstrom based on the opposition is a terrible idea. A more wide open game with lots of transitional play is better suited for Brannstrom, a game where its more of a grind it with lots of play along the wall is better suited for Holden. Playing on the road against a team that spends a lot of time attacking, I can understand why Holden may draw in.

 

[JD1]

Don't look now but Brannstrom is the only one of our D with a + in the +/- register

 

[Emrasie]

If he was not a puck moving D having 0 pp time, i could see him wanting to stay and sign here middle or long term but with Jakob arrival (not like DJ was playing him as a 2nd D on PP before anyway) it will not be the case.
Even if DJ is fired he will surely ask to be traded this summer.

For the team a good all around D, who could play PP, PK, LD, RD at a reasonable price would be great but it's not his best interest and i'm sure he sees himself as a good top 4 D who can help on special team, play OT and shootout.

 

[OD99]

If they have any sense he will be in the lineup through the end of the season and, at minimum, increase the awareness around the league of his game so perhaps, if pressed, he can get us something in a trade.

I wish they would just let him play and be a good 3rd pairing guy for us.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

If they have any sense he will be in the lineup through the end of the season and, at minimum, increase the awareness around the league of his game so perhaps, if pressed, he can get us something in a trade.

I wish they would just let him play and be a good 3rd pairing guy for us.

He is our best third pairing d man.

Don't look now but Brannstrom is the only one of our D with a + in the +/- register

Yes because he is good in his role and is slotted perfectly

 

[Micklebot]

Don't look now but Brannstrom is the only one of our D with a + in the +/- register

He's had a pretty solid season and really improved his play away from the puck imo. Especially early on he was showing some flair transporting the puck up ice with authority.

I think our added depth has allowed us to shelter him a bit more than past years 5v5, but at the same time, he's getting a bit more responsibility with added pk time.