Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

[Kurtz]

Ohtani is on pace for 8.5fWAR and 9.0bWAR. (His rough start last night for ERA has put his ERA and the predictive stats that Fangraphs uses almost exactly even).

War statistics are overly biased positionally on defense. If you play a premium spot, you'll get unduly rewarded even if you're mediocre there. But if you play excellent defense at a non-premium spot you get hammered.

For instance, you've mentioned that Vlad will probably win the gold glove. FWar has him -9.5 on defense this year. Meanwhile, Bo has a positive fWar on defense despite being one of the weaker defenders (although improving) at SS this year.


This is why, incidentally, Vlad may very well win MVPs in his future, but will never lead the league in WAR regardless of how good he gets defensively.

 

[TGB]

It's been implied somewhat indirectly based on Hyde's post-game comments that Ray or someone else on the Jays might've accused the O's of stealing signs or cheating somehow to tip their hitters off about Ray's slider. Nothing was said specifically but I think Ray said something in the post-game about how it was unusual that the O's were laying off his slider

Yeah, Hazel pretty much confirmed that during the game.

 

[Canada4Gold]

War statistics are overly biased positionally on defense. If you play a premium spot, you'll get unduly rewarded even if you're mediocre there. But if you play excellent defense at a non-premium spot you get hammered.

For instance, you've mentioned that Vlad will probably win the gold glove. FWar has him -9.5 on defense this year. Meanwhile, Bo has a positive fWar on defense despite being one of the weaker defenders (although improving) at SS this year.


This is why, incidentally, Vlad may very well win MVPs in his future, but will never lead the league in WAR regardless of how good he gets defensively.

Fangrahs really should arrange it differently. The positional adjustment gets lumped in with defense but it's actually an offensive thing. It's easier to find offense out of a replacement level 1st baseman than it is from a replacement level SS so they get a "penalty" while SS gets a "reward".

Vladdy has actually been +1.6 in fielding with a -11.1 positional adjustment, while Bo is -4.2 with a +4.4 positional adjustment.

I know it doesn't change your argument which is that the positional adjustment will make it tougher on Vlad regardless where it's displayed. I just get annoyed how that's lumped in with defense when really it's a offensive adjustementg for a replacement level play at said position.

 

[zeke]

War statistics are overly biased positionally on defense. If you play a premium spot, you'll get unduly rewarded even if you're mediocre there.
.

There's nothing "unduly" about it.

 

[Eyedea]

Exactly, it’s a premium spot for a reason.

 

[Kurtz]

There's nothing "unduly" about it.

Off course there is, it's not even debatable. As a basic example - if I have two OF who are identical defensively and I arbitrarily choose to put one in CF and the other LF, the guy in CF will come out way ahead in defensive WAR at the end of the season despite them being equally good and capable.

 

[Kurtz]

Exactly, it’s a premium spot for a reason.

It is a premium spot, but whether you play it or not is largely dependent on your teammates. As an example, Arod was hammered in defensive fwar when he got to New York simply because he was forced to move from SS to 3B despite being a gold glove.

The positional adjustment scores also seem rather arbitrary, but that's another matter.

 

[zeke]

Off course there is, it's not even debatable. As a basic example - if I have two OF who are identical defensively and I arbitrarily choose to put one in CF and the other LF, the guy in CF will come out way ahead in defensive WAR at the end of the season despite them being equally good and capable.

He won't be.

A poor CF will earn less war than a good defensive corner OF.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Off course there is, it's not even debatable. As a basic example - if I have two OF who are identical defensively and I arbitrarily choose to put one in CF and the other LF, the guy in CF will come out way ahead in defensive WAR at the end of the season despite them being equally good and capable.

In theory the player playing LF would put up better actual defensive numbers because they're playing an easier position which would cancel out the positional adjustment. In practice I'm not an expert so I don't really know if the positional adjustment is sized properly. Also every player isn't linear defensively, some might actually find CF easier.

 

[Kurtz]

In theory the player playing LF would put up better actual defensive numbers because they're playing an easier position which would cancel out the positional adjustment. In practice I'm not an expert so I don't really know if the positional adjustment is sized properly. Also every player isn't linear defensively, some might actually find CF easier.

WAR is just bad at capturing defensive value in general. Look up any player and you'll usually find significant swings in their defensive value year over year, even if they do play the same position. It has little to do with the player's ability and is instead driven largely by luck - where the ball was hit that season, who was playing beside them, etc. Check out Arod for example for a good laugh - he would oscillate between +20 defensive fwar in one year to being a negative fwar player the next.

I don't think defensive war has adjusted to all the shifts either (I could be wrong on this).

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[dredeye]

Ryu obviously had a terrible game but seems to be struggling of late

 

[zeke]

Pretty good team we have here.

 

[rdogg]

God damn, I just started watching the game at the start of the 7th. What an amazing inning!

 

[phillipmike]

Yankees up 8-7 with a crappy error by Baez.

 

[zeke]

 

[as Pure as Evil]

has anyone's value plummeted more then Baez after his trade to the mets

 

[phillipmike]

Red Sox take the lead 9-8

 

[Hoverhand]

A familiar face is warming up, friends.

 

[crazyfisherman]

White sox threatening

 

[canucksfan]

White Sox have plug hitters up now

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Hoverhand]

Yankees get out of a jam, Red Sox win.

Damnit.

 

[hoc123]

Dammit Pillar, if you had just ran at first

 

[Cloned]

There could be a three way tie for both wild card spots after tomorrow, lol.