Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

[Bjindaho]

Yeah, Ohtani walks a few more and Ray allows fewer HR. No one said they're literally identical, though. They've just been similar pitchers this year.

But that isn't really true.

Ray's given up 16HR this year outside of Buffalo and Dunedin and 9 in those two parks alone.

 

[MS]

If Vlad were to get the triple crown and the team makes the postseason, I think it’s his tbh. Miggy/Trout vibes.

I don't see it.

1) The Triple Crown thing has a bit less lustre now, having been accomplished recently, than when it hadn't been done in 50 years.
2) Attitudes to counting stats vs. WAR have evolved considerably in the last 9 years and I don't know if that same result happens now.
3) Trout wasn't doing the Babe Ruth thing and dominating as a pitcher.
4) I think there was an attitude at the time that Cabrera was doing a 'special thing' and that Trout was a young guy who would get his award eventually (and was getting the ROY so wasn't empty-handed). In this scenario, Vladdy is basically Trout and Ohtani is Cabrera.

Like even Jay homers and counting-stat lovers Buck and Pat have admitted that Guerrero has zero chance against what Ohtani is doing.

 

[Kurtz]

Ohtani is going to be the unanimous MVP. He's having probably the greatest non-steroid aided season of all time. I can't believe there are folks that are still arguing this here. Just enjoy witnessing it - ull be telling your grandkids about it the same way your grandpa told you about the Babe.

In fact, If you think that Vlad even has a chance at the MVP, don't waste your time here, run to betting sites where Vlad is paying 15:1 to win it and bet your savings.

If you're gung ho on homer takes, at least go with Ray for CY Young. He might actually win that.

 

[MS]

Ohtani is going to be the unanimous MVP. He's having probably the greatest non-steroid aided season of all time. I can't believe there are folks that are still arguing this here. Just enjoy witnessing it - ull be telling your grandkids about it the same way your grandpa told you about the Babe.

In fact, If you think that Vlad even has a chance at the MVP, don't waste your time here, run to betting sites where Vlad is paying 15:1 to win it and bet your savings.

If you're gung ho on homer takes, at least go with Ray for CY Young. He might actually win that.

Pretty much this.

People are watching one of the most spectacular things in this history of sports and trying to argue it's nothing special. It's amazing.

The guy who is 3rd in WAR *on his own team* isn't going to beat out Ohtani. Like, this isn't close. Like you say, it will be unanimous assuming Ohtani doesn't have some sort of ridiculous collapse in September.

 

[Discoverer]

But that isn't really true.

Ray's given up 16HR this year outside of Buffalo and Dunedin and 9 in those two parks alone.

Sure, if you take out the two parks where he allowed the most HR it's closer. But Ray still allows more HR outside of Buffalo/Dunedin than Ohtani does overall.

 

[TGB]

I don't see how anyone can think Vlad can win. He's great, no doubt about it, but Ohtani is great hitting AND pitching, and that's like double the production of any single all-star player. And if the stats don't bear out what is essentially two player's worth of WAR, then the stats are crap.

im not taking a side here since what both are doing is crazy, but lets not just give ohtani the award if vladdy wins the triple crown. it would only be the 13th triple crown ever and second in over 50 years and vladdy would take over as the youngest player to ever achieve

The triple crown is certainly amazing, but we're talking overall value here. A guy who is practically darn near the second best offensive player in the AL AND a Cy Young candidate...that's a level of value beyond simply being JUST a good offensive player.

It's not like Vladdy won't get recognized. I imagine the Jays will put up a Triple Crown banner if he wins it.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Vlad will win an MVP. It just isn't gonna be this year lol.

 

[phillipmike]

If Vladdy was an Angel and Ohtani was a Jay we would all be saying how great Ohtani is he deserves the MVP hands down. And rightfully so.

Vladdy could win the triple crown at 22 and it is extremely likely he doesnt get a single first place vote. Think about that.

I get that you need to compare players against each other THIS YEAR but what Ohtani is doing is something that has NEVER been done before in almost any sport EVER. And something that may not be done again by anyone outside Ohtani which is truly remarkable.

This is the equivalent of being the 2nd best QB in the league and a top 10 defensive player (defensive back or linebacker). Or the 2nd best goalie in the NHL and top 10 in NHL scoring. It is just unheard of.

 

[TGB]

Vladdy could win the triple crown at 22 and it is extremely likely he doesnt get a single first place vote. Think about that.

That happens to the Jays a lot, actually. How often have we seen a player have what is otherwise a terrific overall season, but they don't win because there is one other player having a RIDICULOUSLY good season (which they often never match again)?

 

[Discoverer]

I don't see how anyone can think Vlad can win. He's great, no doubt about it, but Ohtani is great hitting AND pitching, and that's like double the production of any single all-star player. And if the stats don't bear out what is essentially two player's worth of WAR, then the stats are crap.

Ohtani has a 1.0 fWAR and 1.3 bWAR lead on second place in the AL (Vlad and Ray, oddly enough). They definitely do bear it out.

 

[holy]

That happens to the Jays a lot, actually. How often have we seen a player have what is otherwise a terrific overall season, but they don't win because there is one other player having a RIDICULOUSLY good season (which they often never match again)?

They don’t wanna see us win.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ohtani is going to be the unanimous MVP. He's having probably the greatest non-steroid aided season of all time. I can't believe there are folks that are still arguing this here. Just enjoy witnessing it - ull be telling your grandkids about it the same way your grandpa told you about the Babe.

In fact, If you think that Vlad even has a chance at the MVP, don't waste your time here, run to betting sites where Vlad is paying 15:1 to win it and bet your savings.

If you're gung ho on homer takes, at least go with Ray for CY Young. He might actually win that.

No, he isn't. A dude named Mike Trout says hi.

 

[VanillaCoke]

What Guerrero is doing at 22 is incredible and probably being largely underrated, especially if he gets the triple crown. Even being close is a remarkable achievement.

Ohtani is just on another level and I'm so glad I can witness it. He's like superman in the flesh deciding to play Major League Baseball.

It'd be like prime Dustin Byfuglien playing both 60+ pt power fwd and norris calibre defense all season.

 

[Bjindaho]

Can we at least let Ohtani get through his next 3 starts before annointing him(the toughest 3 game stretch of his year)?

 

[stickty111]

Can we at least let Ohtani get through his next 3 starts before annointing him(the toughest 3 game stretch of his year)?

Sure but we should say the same thing for Vlad.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sure but we should say the same thing for Vlad.

Vlad has faced every challenge.

Ohtani hasn't really pitched in any hitters parks and has significantly improved his stats by beating the tar out of bad teams plus Oakland and Toronto.

He has some competition against, but it isnt like facing the AL East over and over.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sure, if you take out the two parks where he allowed the most HR it's closer. But Ray still allows more HR outside of Buffalo/Dunedin than Ohtani does overall.

Guess which park Ohtani was scheduled to pitch in the one time LA decided to skip him outright

 

[MS]

That happens to the Jays a lot, actually. How often have we seen a player have what is otherwise a terrific overall season, but they don't win because there is one other player having a RIDICULOUSLY good season (which they often never match again)?

Hmmm ... I'm not sure this is the case?

Dave Stieb should have won 3 straight Cy Youngs 1982-84 but the guys beating him didn't have great seasons and this was down more to bad general knowledge about the wins/saves stats.

John Olerud probably should have finished ahead of Frank Thomas in 1993 but then Ken Griffey Jr. probably should have finished ahead of Olerud.

Jose Bautista 2011 probably should have won but they gave it to a pitcher having a great year.

Halladay losing to Cliff Lee in 2008 might qualify as an example of this.

Conversely George Bell and Alfredo Griffin really shouldn't have won their awards and Pat Hentgen won his Cy Young (deservedly) in a really soft year for pitching.

I'm not seeing a lot of guys having monster seasons and losing out to prime Bonds/Maddux or something like that.

 

[Discoverer]

Vlad has faced every challenge.

Ohtani hasn't really pitched in any hitters parks and has significantly improved his stats by beating the tar out of bad teams plus Oakland and Toronto.

He has some competition against, but it isnt like facing the AL East over and over.

Out of curiosity... if Ohtani doesn't deserve full credit for his pitching because he's played in so many pitchers parks, shouldn't he also get EXTRA credit for his hitting?

And if Ray deserves extra credit for pitching in such HR friendly parks, shouldn't Vlad also get less credit?

 

[Cloned]

I would be SHOCKED if the writers consider even 50% of what's been posted here when they vote for the MVP lol.

 

[MS]

Dave Stieb should have won 3 straight Cy Youngs 1982-84 but the guys beating him didn't have great seasons and this was down more to bad general knowledge about the wins/saves stats.

Just to continue on from my previous post, there probably isn't any player in MLB history who was boned harder by voters with the benefit of hindsight than Dave Stieb. Maybe Wade Boggs.

1981-85 Stieb went 3-1-1-1-2 in pitching WAR. His Cy Young finishes were 4, 7, 7 and two years with no votes at all.

1982 he finishes with 7.6 WAR. 2nd place guy is at 5.7. Loses to a journeyman with a 2.8 WAR and fluke win-loss record.

1983 finishes with 7.0 WAR. 2nd place guy is 5.5. Loses to a journeyman with a 3.6 WAR and fluke win-loss record.

1984 finishes with 7.9 WAR. 2nd place guy is 7.2 (and then a huge drop after that). Loses to a reliever with 4.6 WAR.

For the 3 years, he had 22.5 WAR and the three guys who beat him combined for 11 WAR.

If voting was done by the metrics we use today, he wins 3 straight Cy Youngs and is in the BHOF.

 

[Bjindaho]

Out of curiosity... if Ohtani doesn't deserve full credit for his pitching because he's played in so many pitchers parks, shouldn't he also get EXTRA credit for his hitting?

And if Ray deserves extra credit for pitching in such HR friendly parks, shouldn't Vlad also get less credit?

I'm not arguing to reduce value or anything like that. I'm suggesting not to state opinions as facts especially when they involve the pad-worthy section of his season. If Ohtani pulls a Ray and dominates these three, it would push the gap (and would be reflected in the fWAR gap)

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm not arguing to reduce value or anything like that. I'm suggesting not to state opinions as facts especially when they involve the pad-worthy section of his season. If Ohtani pulls a Ray and dominates these three, it would push the gap (and would be reflected in the fWAR gap)

Some are suggesting that he's a top 5 pitcher and others are suggesting that he hasn't been THAT good.

He's still the leading MVP candidate and outside of 1 or 2 posters everyone agrees. Some of us don't think he does as well with Houston as Texas (literally 20% of his starts this year) and that after the next 3 starts his numbers could be much worse (assuming LA doesn't intentionally try to avoid Chicago and call it "rest"

 

[Eyedea]

I don't see it.

1) The Triple Crown thing has a bit less lustre now, having been accomplished recently, than when it hadn't been done in 50 years.
2) Attitudes to counting stats vs. WAR have evolved considerably in the last 9 years and I don't know if that same result happens now.
3) Trout wasn't doing the Babe Ruth thing and dominating as a pitcher.
4) I think there was an attitude at the time that Cabrera was doing a 'special thing' and that Trout was a young guy who would get his award eventually (and was getting the ROY so wasn't empty-handed). In this scenario, Vladdy is basically Trout and Ohtani is Cabrera.

Like even Jay homers and counting-stat lovers Buck and Pat have admitted that Guerrero has zero chance against what Ohtani is doing.

There’s nothing to suggest voters have changed when Abreu won the MVP last season over Ramirez/Bieber.

If Vlad were to achieve the triple crown feat, plus hold onto his lead in hits, he’d not only be the youngest to get the triple crown but the youngest (and 3rd of all time) to get the “quadruple” crown. This isn’t to say that what Ohtani is doing isn’t sensational. I have seen him as the favourite for awhile now. But if Vlad does achieve this feat and the Jays get into the postseason, I don’t think it’s impossible that the voter perspective switches. Counting stats be damned, beating Ted Williams’ record for youngest triple crown winner can be considered as big of a spectacle as what Miggy did in 2012.

 

[MS]

There’s nothing to suggest voters have changed when Abreu won the MVP last season over Ramirez/Bieber.

If Vlad were to achieve the triple crown feat, plus hold onto his lead in hits, he’d not only be the youngest to get the triple crown but the youngest (and 3rd of all time) to get the “quadruple” crown. This isn’t to say that what Ohtani is doing isn’t sensational. I have seen him as the favourite for awhile now. But if Vlad does achieve this feat and the Jays get into the postseason, I don’t think it’s impossible that the voter perspective switches. Counting stats be damned, beating Ted Williams’ record for youngest triple crown winner can be considered as big of a spectacle as what Miggy did in 2012.

Except we know what the general mood of the baseball world is.

Guerrero's pursuit of the triple crown isn't even registering in the greater imagination. This is the Season of Ohtani and if voting happened today it wouldn't even be close. And it still wouldn't be close even if he took the lead in HR.

Abreu last year had a 3.0 WAR when the highest position player was at 3.1. Beiber is a pitcher and they virtually never win unless something absolutely bizarre happens.