Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

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As the Jays pull back closer to the playoffs and Vladdy re-emerging, the MVP race is also getting closer (depending on your perspective).

I find it difficult to say that a guy who is the 13th best offensive player and 44th best pitcher is definitively better than the best offensive player just because he contributes on both sides

Right now, Vladdy is statistically the best defensive 1B in the AL (3rd best in baseball). He leads the AL in OBP by more than 40 points (unless you count Marte who was traded at midseason and who is only 17 points back). His slugging is 2nd to Ohtani (by .001). He leads the AL in average and runs, is down 1 in HR, and down 4 in RBI. He is 6 runs created from this season joining the top 500 of all-time (with 23 games to go)
 
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And Martin's average, walk rate and slugging is now lower with the Twins than it was with us. His defense is somehow worse at SS with the Twins and they have moved him to CF. He is doing well in CF.

Berrios is top 20 in MLB starting WAR. Lots of time to evaluate this trade but early indications are positive.

Yup, it's still early returns but right now it looks like management did a good job selling high on those two guys. Both will plummet down prospect lists ahead of next season.
 
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As the Jays pull back closer to the playoffs and Vladdy re-emerging, the MVP race is also getting closer (depending on your perspective).

I find it difficult to say that a guy who is the 13th best offensive player and 44th best pitcher is definitively better than the best offensive player just because he contributes on both sides

Right now, Vladdy is statistically the best defensive 1B in the AL (3rd best in baseball). He leads the AL in OBP by more than 40 points (unless you count Marte who was traded at midseason and who is only 17 points back). His slugging is 2nd to Ohtani (by .001). He leads the AL in average and runs, is down 1 in HR, and down 4 in RBI. He is 6 runs created from this season joining the top 500 of all-time (with 23 games to go)

Ohtani is 20% clear of the #2 guy in MLB in WAR. He has the MVP basically locked up.
 
Ohtani is 20% clear of the #2 guy in MLB in WAR. He has the MVP basically locked up.

In fWAR, he is 7.2 vs 6.2.

bWAR is just fugly (Correa has a 133 wRC+ in 555 PA for 4.6oWAR, whereas Vladdy has a 171 in 599 for 5.9 oWAR.
 
In fWAR, he is 7.2 vs 6.2.

bWAR is just fugly (Correa has a 133 wRC+ in 555 PA for 4.6oWAR, whereas Vladdy has a 171 in 599 for 5.9 oWAR.

fWAR is garbage for pitchers.

Correa should absolutely be getting a boost because he plays a more defensively valuable position. If Vladdy could play a solid SS and was doing the exact same thing at the plate he would be worth like 10 WAR.
 
Ohtani is 20% clear of the #2 guy in MLB in WAR. He has the MVP basically locked up.

I honestly do not get the hype with Ohtani. So what that he does hits and pitches. Big deal. What has meant for his team? The team is horrible and its obvious the MVP of that team is Trout not him. Just because he's producing on both sides it doesnt mean he is of any value to his team. Its obvious his production hasnt made the Angels competitive.

Now take Vladdy out of the Jays lineup or even Semien!!! And we are not talking about challenging for a playoff spot.

By seasons end, if Vladdy is top 3 in AVG, HR, RBIs, SLG% and RUNS as he is right now. He easily takes the award and should. As of right now its Vladdy, Semien and Ohtani in the race, not in that order. By end of season it will be in that order.
 
I honestly do not get the hype with Ohtani. So what that he does hits and pitches. Big deal. What has meant for his team? The team is horrible and its obvious the MVP of that team is Trout not him. Just because he's producing on both sides it doesnt mean he is of any value to his team. Its obvious his production hasnt made the Angels competitive.

Now take Vladdy out of the Jays lineup or even Semien!!! And we are not talking about challenging for a playoff spot.

By seasons end, if Vladdy is top 3 in AVG, HR, RBIs, SLG% and RUNS as he is right now. He easily takes the award and should. As of right now its Vladdy, Semien and Ohtani in the race, not in that order. By end of season it will be in that order.

The ol' "Players on shitty teams can't be MVP" argument.
 
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fWAR is garbage for pitchers.

Correa should absolutely be getting a boost because he plays a more defensively valuable position. If Vladdy could play a solid SS and was doing the exact same thing at the plate he would be worth like 10 WAR.

That stat that I quoted was their offensive value. Correa ia a very good SS and has a good number for his dWAR to reflect that.

I don't disagree about fWAR vs bWAR for pitchers BTW, but there is no way to actually compare Ohtani to anyone in bWAR properly because their site only shows top 10 (which he isn't).
 
The ol' "Players on shitty teams can't be MVP" argument.

Its what MVP means. Where are the Angels right now without Trout and Ohtani? Same place they are with Ohtani and not Trout!!!

By end of season, Ohtani will not be leading any offensive category or pitching category. Book it.

So the only reason hes in consideration for MVP is because he can hit and pitch??? Sorry not an MVP for me. Vladdy is having a monster season, and if he wins triple crown which could be hard it should be a lock. Like I said top 3 in every offensive category does the trick. Not to mention his stellar defensive play at 1B which likely gets him consideration for a gold glove.
 
fWAR is garbage for pitchers.

That's very hyperbolic. I don't necessarily like fWAR for pitchers purely because it mitigates everyone who takes a contact approach. Ray's weird because he's a strikeout machine and has lowered his walk-rate, you'd think that fWAR would like him more. I figure it's quite a bit lower due to his homerun to flyball rate and his walk rate is still higher than what fWAR considers elite. Right now, over his last 10 or so starts, he certainly looks like bWAR's numbers, though.
 
I honestly do not get the hype with Ohtani. So what that he does hits and pitches. Big deal. What has meant for his team? The team is horrible and its obvious the MVP of that team is Trout not him. Just because he's producing on both sides it doesnt mean he is of any value to his team. Its obvious his production hasnt made the Angels competitive.

Now take Vladdy out of the Jays lineup or even Semien!!! And we are not talking about challenging for a playoff spot.

By seasons end, if Vladdy is top 3 in AVG, HR, RBIs, SLG% and RUNS as he is right now. He easily takes the award and should. As of right now its Vladdy, Semien and Ohtani in the race, not in that order. By end of season it will be in that order.

you don’t get the hype about Ohtani? You could’ve ended the post there and it still would’ve been a god awful take
 
Its what MVP means. Where are the Angels right now without Trout and Ohtani? Same place they are with Ohtani and not Trout!!!

By end of season, Ohtani will not be leading any offensive category or pitching category. Book it.

So the only reason hes in consideration for MVP is because he can hit and pitch??? Sorry not an MVP for me. Vladdy is having a monster season, and if he wins triple crown which could be hard it should be a lock. Like I said top 3 in every offensive category does the trick. Not to mention his stellar defensive play at 1B which likely gets him consideration for a gold glove.

He has the 2nd highest wRC+ in the AL and the 6th best ERA among pitchers with 100+ innings, but I like how you dumb it down to "So what, he can hit and pitch, big deal!" No one since Babe Ruth has been good at both hitting and pitching, yet Ohtani has been elite at both.

The "can't be MVP on a shitty team" argument has been around for forever, and I understand why it exists. But the player has no control over the quality of the rest of his team, and in this case Ohtani is having probably the most impressive and unheard of overall season any of us has ever seen.

Sidenote... anyone notice how fans usually only push the "quality of team" thing when their team is good and the argument supports their candidate?
 
Its what MVP means. Where are the Angels right now without Trout and Ohtani? Same place they are with Ohtani and not Trout!!!

By end of season, Ohtani will not be leading any offensive category or pitching category. Book it.

So the only reason hes in consideration for MVP is because he can hit and pitch??? Sorry not an MVP for me. Vladdy is having a monster season, and if he wins triple crown which could be hard it should be a lock. Like I said top 3 in every offensive category does the trick. Not to mention his stellar defensive play at 1B which likely gets him consideration for a gold glove.

In theory, sure. But not in practice. not for a long time. In almost every sport with an MVP trophy it has become synonymous with "best player" simply because judging "value" is a potentially highly subjective and noisy exercise that leads to insanity like people trying to vote for middling sparkplug players like David goddamn Eckstein because "they don't compile numbers but they're winners and their teams win" BS. Seriously, Eckstein made it onto two (TWO!!!) MVP ballots in his career because someone took the "most valuable" argument far too literally. This is actually one of the things that I like about the CFL. There's no illusions of "value" in their award because they've done away with that mealy-mouthed terminology and just outright said the top award is for the most outstanding player.

You're also making a pretty scattershot argument here, playing both sides of the debate in opposite directions. On the one hand Ohtani's personal accolades don't matter because the Angels suck. But on the other hand Vladdy deserves it because the Jays are in a solid position and, oh yeah, he has a bunch of personal accolades to rattle off.

Ohtani is doing something that pretty much nobody in baseball has done in like a hundred years (literally) and is doing it at a level that pretty much nobody has ever done in the entire history of baseball ever (because Babe Ruth may have also been a two-way player, but his best pitching years and best hitting years do not overlap. His historic batter impact didn't begin until right at the tail end of him being a pitcher (likely because Boston realized "oh my god, he's really good with the bat, what are we doing wasting his effort being an OK-ish pitcher for a hundred plus innings a year?") and in his best couple of years on the mound he was a very un-Babe-like as a part-time hitter.)

If Vladdy captures the triple crown, then it's a debate. Or if Ohtani really falls off during this last month of the season and Vlad hugely passes him by. But right now the uniqueness value of Ohtani's performance coupled with the elite level of performance on both sides of the ball creates MVP helium that defies a simple "yeah, well he's not the best hitter/pitcher in the league and his team sucks"
 
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That's very hyperbolic. I don't necessarily like fWAR for pitchers purely because it mitigates everyone who takes a contact approach. Ray's weird because he's a strikeout machine and has lowered his walk-rate, you'd think that fWAR would like him more. I figure it's quite a bit lower due to his homerun to flyball rate and his walk rate is still higher than what fWAR considers elite. Right now, over his last 10 or so starts, he certainly looks like bWAR's numbers, though.

It was hyperbolic. And fWAR is coming around to Ray.

The issue with bWAR is that it heavily benefits pitchers who do well despite crappy defenses behind them.
 
I honestly do not get the hype with Ohtani. So what that he does hits and pitches. Big deal. What has meant for his team? The team is horrible and its obvious the MVP of that team is Trout not him. Just because he's producing on both sides it doesnt mean he is of any value to his team. Its obvious his production hasnt made the Angels competitive.

Now take Vladdy out of the Jays lineup or even Semien!!! And we are not talking about challenging for a playoff spot.

By seasons end, if Vladdy is top 3 in AVG, HR, RBIs, SLG% and RUNS as he is right now. He easily takes the award and should. As of right now its Vladdy, Semien and Ohtani in the race, not in that order. By end of season it will be in that order.

Its what MVP means. Where are the Angels right now without Trout and Ohtani? Same place they are with Ohtani and not Trout!!!

By end of season, Ohtani will not be leading any offensive category or pitching category. Book it.

So the only reason hes in consideration for MVP is because he can hit and pitch??? Sorry not an MVP for me. Vladdy is having a monster season, and if he wins triple crown which could be hard it should be a lock. Like I said top 3 in every offensive category does the trick. Not to mention his stellar defensive play at 1B which likely gets him consideration for a gold glove.
Your argument would have been the opposite if Ohtani was on our team and we were bad.
So what he hits and pitches is such an ignorant take.
 
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That stat that I quoted was their offensive value. Correa ia a very good SS and has a good number for his dWAR to reflect that.

I don't disagree about fWAR vs bWAR for pitchers BTW, but there is no way to actually compare Ohtani to anyone in bWAR properly because their site only shows top 10 (which he isn't).

Yes, I realize that.

Offensive value is dependent on position. A league average hitter will have a positive offensive WAR if playing SS but a negative offensive WAR if playing 1B or DH.
 
The irony to me here is that based on his arguments Vlad doesn't deserve it either since the Jays aren't in a playoff spot...

My argument has always been that if you want to rule out the players on non-playoff teams because "The team sucks with him and would suck without him so he didn't make a difference," you also have to rule out the players on teams who would have made the playoffs anyway. So we cut out all the non-playoff teams, then we cut out all the dominant teams (TB, CHW, HOU in the AL) and it becomes the Best Player on a Borderline Contender Award and only players on TOR/NYY/BOS/OAK/SEA are currently eligible (and ultimately it'll only be the best player on the two Wild Card teams).
 
Just found this community article on Fangraphs from a month ago. It details out how the defensive adjustment is calculated in bWAR.

My main takeaway is that both WAR is pretty flawed overall anyway but a good tool when comparing players.

fWAR assumes that if you let a lot of balls end up in play (where infield popups are not counted as in play), bad stuff will happen.

bWAR takes into quality of defensive players (independent of what they do with the pitcher on the mound) vs actual results for the pitcher
 
My argument has always been that if you want to rule out the players on non-playoff teams because "The team sucks with him and would suck without him so he didn't make a difference," you also have to rule out the players on teams who would have made the playoffs anyway. So we cut out all the non-playoff teams, then we cut out all the dominant teams (TB, CHW, HOU in the AL) and it becomes the Best Player on a Borderline Contender Award and only players on TOR/NYY/BOS/OAK/SEA are currently eligible (and ultimately it'll only be the best player on the two Wild Card teams).

Was just gonna comment the same. There aren't baseball players turning bad teams into good ones.
 
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