Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

[TGB]

They should probably rest him for the rest of the season, or at least give him an extra day on any start that falls against the Twins or Orioles.

 

[Discoverer]

Not much point speculating about playoff performances. Playoffs tend to turn the worst players into the best and the best players into the worst. You never quite know how the pressure will affect a player (unless they've done it a bunch of times and there's a history to work with). Thankfully, the Jays have Springer and a good number of the kids won championships in the minors, so that should help, but there is really no way of knowing how they will perform. Heck, the legendary 7th inning started with a ball thrown off a player. Who could have seen that coming?

I think people often overlook the small sample aspect of the playoffs as well.

 

[BlueForever75]

Are we talking about a Jays vs. Jays World Series? Because Price has a 2.12 ERA in World Series games.

Why did I miss something, did Price pitch for the Jays in a World Series?

Again question asked was which team would win the 2015 or 2021 Blue Jays against each other in a 7 game series.

Last I remembered from that 2015 team is that Price flamed out in the playoffs. So based on that seasons results and the Jays results thus far, I would take Ray over Price.

Ask me same question if the 2021 Jays get to the ALDS and Ray flames out as well. It may be different. But based on the unknown and known. Ray is the choice today.

 

[hoglund]

Cash is only a little bias lol.

Jays are winning in spite of their manager not because of him.

that's true for most winning teams, the players are the reason for winning, the manager makes the lineup and manages the bullpen and most fans who have watched year of baseball can do that.

 

[Suntouchable13]

that's true for most winning teams, the players are the reason for winning, the manager makes the lineup and manages the bullpen and most fans who have watched year of baseball can do that.

I don't like Charlie, but managers do more than that. Things that we don't see or notice. Not very many fans are qualified for that.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Vaughan Cunningham]

I hope as a fan that we’ve seen the end of Buck Martinez. I was never a fan of him as a player, tolerated him as a commentator, was horrified to listen to his PBP call and now just want to see some fresh blood in there. You are pushing mid 70’s buds, give someone else an opportunity.

 

[phillipmike]

What if AL Cy Young is (gasp!) Robbie Ray?

Can he approach, say, Zack Wheeler’s five-year, $118M deal with the Phillies, considering Wheeler also was a “stuff” guy who had an up-and-down history at the time of his signing? Or how about comping Ray's potential contract to the one inked by a pitcher with a familiar background as a southpaw who relies on a strikeout-inducing slider and used to pitch for the D-backs -- Patrick Corbin, who leveraged a career year in 2018 into a six-year, $140 million pact with the Nationals?

Those estimates might seem lofty, but if Ray does win the Cy Young or finish top three in the voting, then he'll have precedent in his corner. Over the past 10 years, here are the pitchers to finish that high in the voting in their walk year:

 

[Man Bear Pig]

What if AL Cy Young is (gasp!) Robbie Ray?

Am I the only one who'd be okay with having Ray on a similar contract to Wheeler? It's really not that far off from a reasonable salary.

 

[phillipmike]

Am I the only one who'd be okay with having Ray on a similar contract to Wheeler? It's really not that far off from a reasonable salary.

I’m fine with it too. Obviously you want to pay as least as possible but anything below $150M is ok with me.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I’m fine with it too. Obviously you want to pay as least as possible but anything below $150M is ok with me.

Agreed. 5 years, under $150 million would work for me too. You likely won't see him be as productive as this year, but he'll likely be a good pitcher over that span.

 

[zeke]

 

[Maestro84]

Lineup
2021 has a deeper lineup but JD, Bautista and EE were better than Vladdy, Semien and Bichette. Teo, Springer and Kirk might be better than anything else that 2015 had.

2015: 36.5 fWAR and 117 wRC+
2021: 28.2 fWAR and 114 wRC+

Edge to 2021 imo

Rotation:
With the way Ryu has pitched as of late I think I take Price, Stroman and Estrada over Ray, Berrios and Manoah. Ryu should be better than Dickey but the numbers dictate 2021 is better.

2nd half:
2015: 6.1 fWAR (#9)
2021: 7.1 fWAR (#3)

Edge to 2021 though I like 2015

Defence:
The one of 3 things that 2015 has that 2021 can’t hold a candle to is defence. That 2015 was a near elite defensive team. Pillar, Goins, JD, Martin and Tulo were at worst top 5 defensively at their respective positions. Probably the 5 most important positions on the field except for pitcher. Bautista was above average though I can’t remember if this was the season he hurt his shoulder. EE/Smoak and Revere were passable at those positions.

DEF Rating:
2015: 17.7 (#4)
2021: 3.8 (#12)

Big Edge to 2015

Bullpen:
The 2nd thing is the pen. A healthy Merryweather and Pearson changes this conversation a little but Osuna and Sanchez is better than Romano and Mayza. Many forget (including me) that our third best reliever in 2015 was Liam Hendriks and we had a big shutdown lefty in Cecil. That’s 4 1+ WAR relievers.

Osuna > Romano
Sanchez > Merryweather
Hendriks > Cimber
Cecil > Mayza
Hawkins > Richards
Lowe > Soria
Loup < Borucki
Hutchison < Stripling
Tepera = Pearson

2015: 3.4 fWAR (#13)
2021: 0.7 fWAR (#27)

Massive Edge 2015

Coaching:
And the 3rd and final X factor is coaching. The series likely goes 7 for sure but I give 2015 the edge because of that pen and Gibby managing that pen. Montoyo is bound to cost the 2021 team at least a game.

View attachment 465168

Vs

View attachment 465169

Massive Edge 2015

2015 in 6 or 7 games

Can we stop overrating Gibby the man was an awful manager as well. In this hypothetical matchup, the managers aren't really gonna factor cuz both of them are garbo lol whoever wins it'll be because of the players

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Can we stop overrating Gibby the man was an awful manager as well. In this hypothetical matchup, the managers aren't really gonna factor cuz both of them are garbo lol whoever wins it'll be because of the players

He wasn't an awful manager actually. He consistently out managed our opposing managers in big games and handled the bullpen multiple times over more competently then Montoyo.

 

[Discoverer]

Can we stop overrating Gibby the man was an awful manager as well. In this hypothetical matchup, the managers aren't really gonna factor cuz both of them are garbo lol whoever wins it'll be because of the players

Gibby was the best.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Fans generally hate everything because they can pick apart decisions with hindsight bias. Gibby wasn't all that loved by the fanbase when he was here the 2nd time but he's one of the better managers. Based on the same thought process Montoyo likely isn't as bad as we think but he's pretty much universally hated by the fanbase and Gibby was more half a half which makes it clear just how much better Gibby was.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

May I ask why you quoted his statement of a .297 BABIP and made the sample 7 times smaller to generate a bigger BABIP that's still over .100 points less than Riley Adams BABIP that he mentioned?

A .297 BABIP is completely reasonable. A .472 BABIP is not. A .063 BABIP is not.

Because he doesn't have a BABIP of .297 except when you remove the month with his second-most number of at-bats. I'm making an exaggerated point that arbitrarily reducing the sample size of at-bats by removing bad/good months can "support" whatever inference you want it to, but it does not give you a real indication of someone's performance. Saying, he's hit such and such since an arbitrary point in time is meaningless unless he does it over an extended period.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I mean...going out on a limb here. The sample size for Jansen is a little bit bigger then the last 5 games. There is a slight bit of irony in you calling out motivated reasoning with that in mind.

Larger sample size? You mean the 60 at bats in May and 22 at-bats divided over the next three months before August? Talk about an arbitrary choice of points in time. I find it funny how you criticize my selecting a 5 game sample from his best month, when he can only arrive at his desired figure by eliminating the month with his second-most at-bats. How does a smaller sample size of performance give you more accurate information that a larger sample size of performance? That's utterly illogical.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

What YOU said he said (which he didn't say) would have been motivated reasoning. What he ACTUALLY said was that .297 is normal (it is), .063 is unsustainably low (it is), and .467 is unsustainable high (it is).

How did you get that out of what he said?

An imprecisely made point on my part. My quibble with his post is two-fold:

1) He is relying on an arbitrary point in time (conveniently removing his worst month, with his second-most at-bats) and using that as his sample set.

2) He suggests that this new number is more indicative of his ability, as if a smaller sample size can tell us more than a larger sample size. Players go through cold streaks and hot streaks. They're not just their hot streaks, anymore than they are their cold streaks. When you combine both, that's the player you have .220/.304/.453.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[KapG]

I hope as a fan that we’ve seen the end of Buck Martinez. I was never a fan of him as a player, tolerated him as a commentator, was horrified to listen to his PBP call and now just want to see some fresh blood in there. You are pushing mid 70’s buds, give someone else an opportunity.

I can barely watch a game when he’s the guy doing pbp these days. He’s sooooooooo bad

 

[Plat87]

I dont want no parts of Ryu pitching a do or die game...it's Ray, Berrios, Manoah and maybe even Matz before Ryu, we'll see how Matz does in his next start.

 

[Cloned]

I dont want no parts of Ryu pitching a do or die game...it's Ray, Berrios, Manoah and maybe even Matz before Ryu, we'll see how Matz does in his next start.

I have tons more confidence in Matz than Ryu right now. At least Matz has velocity so even if his command is off in a game he has more room for error.

With Ryu, once his endurance goes like this at the end of the season, everything is flat and very hittable.