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Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

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The Nemesis said:
Terrible. Because while there may be behind the scenes things that baseball people will know about that we don't, I can't escape the fact that a) we see Charlie make dumb tactical decisions on an almost daily basis and b) it's hard to disprove that this isn't a case of the self-fulfilling prophecy of managerial impact. You know, the team is good so the manager/coach is doing a good job vs the team sucks so obviously the manager/coach has lost the room and is bombing. It's next to impossible to convince most sports people that managerial ability and team success are linked but don't necessarily have to move in lockstep or even in consistent directions.

Plus Cash is almost certainly Charlie's friend given their history in the Rays org, so of course he's going to big up his guy.
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yeah true enough on all fronts. i just find it amusing with all the flack he's gotten in the media. sportsnet decides to do a spread about it
 
There’s always the possibility that Cash and other baseball people don’t value a manager’s tactical abilities (or lack thereof) in the same way that a lot of fans do. They may value how the manager’s ability to manage the mood of the team more.

In any event, Montoya’s fate is completely out of my hands, so I don’t really concern myself with it.
 
rojac said:
There’s always the possibility that Cash and other baseball people don’t value a manager’s tactical abilities (or lack thereof) in the same way that a lot of fans do. They may value how the manager’s ability to manage the mood of the team more.

In any event, Montoya’s fate is completely out of my hands, so I don’t really concern myself with it.
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i mean if cash is watching what what montoyo is doing as close as most of us i would question him as to why he isnt more focused on his own team. on the surface based off our recent run im sure alot of people are impressed with what we are doing and would give montoyo credit, but even during this streak he seems to make 1 baffling decision minimum per game, to people who actually watch every jays game its painfully obvious lol. but i can see how others dont see it. the jays postgame the guys are constantly on the same page as the fans when it comes to his decisions and how confusing they are.
 
Sub, I saw this question on the Jays Reddit page the other day so I’m interested to see your opinions.

who wins in a 7 game series between 2015 Jays and 2021 Jays?
 
Maestro84 said:
Sub, I saw this question on the Jays Reddit page the other day so I’m interested to see your opinions.

who wins in a 7 game series between 2015 Jays and 2021 Jays?
Click to expand...

2021, almost completely because of offense, way deeper.

2015 was the big 3 and 6 guys who could get hot or cold... 2021 is legit 5 deep then 4 guys who could get hot or cold.

Starting pitching is probably a wash assuming you go down to 3 for a playoff series.... Price/Estrada/Stroman vs Ray/Berrios/Manoah (or Ryu)

Bullpen is a slight edge to 2015 Cecil/Sanchez/Osuna was pretty legit.
 
tmlms13 said:
2021, almost completely because of offense, way deeper.

2015 was the big 3 and 6 guys who could get hot or cold... 2021 is legit 5 deep then 4 guys who could get hot or cold.

Starting pitching is probably a wash assuming you go down to 3 for a playoff series.... Price/Estrada/Stroman vs Ray/Berrios/Manoah (or Ryu)

Bullpen is a slight edge to 2015 Cecil/Sanchez/Osuna was pretty legit.
Click to expand...

Not sure this offense is deeper.

wRC+

Guerrero 171 --- Donaldson 154
Springer 138 ---- Encarnacion 150
Teoscar 137 ------ Bautista 148
Semien 135 ------- Colabello 143
Kirk 123 ------------ Travis 136
Bichette 119 ------ Martin 115
Gurriel 113 -------- Tulowitzki 101
Jansen 103 --------- Revere 98
Espinal 103 -------- Pillar 94

Lamb 96 ------------- Smoak 108
Grichuk 94 --------- Carrera 90
Valera 84 ------------ Goins 85
McGuire 85 -------- Navarro 84

Dickerson 94 ------ Barney 122
Biggio 82 ------------ Pompey 82
Dyson 52 ------------ Thole 34

Though the Travis injury was killer as it forced them to use Goins full time leaving the bottom 3rd weak. Hopefully we stay healthy.


Pitching staff I think it's hard to take Ray over Price though it's close. Stroman vs Manoah also pretty close.
Ryu and Dickey close but maybe an edge to Ryu.
But I do take Berrios handily over Estrada.....so maybe the edge in SP goes to 2021.

I do like the 2015 Bullpen much better though. Osuna/Sanchez/Hendriks/Cecil/Lowe were all pretty awesome and this year's pen doesn't really compare to that - unless merryweather and Pearson decide to lock in all of a sudden.
 
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Maestro84 said:
Sub, I saw this question on the Jays Reddit page the other day so I’m interested to see your opinions.

who wins in a 7 game series between 2015 Jays and 2021 Jays?
Click to expand...

Lineup
2021 has a deeper lineup but JD, Bautista and EE were better than Vladdy, Semien and Bichette. Teo, Springer and Kirk might be better than anything else that 2015 had.

2015: 36.5 fWAR and 117 wRC+
2021: 28.2 fWAR and 114 wRC+

Edge to 2021 imo

Rotation:
With the way Ryu has pitched as of late I think I take Price, Stroman and Estrada over Ray, Berrios and Manoah. Ryu should be better than Dickey but the numbers dictate 2021 is better.

2nd half:
2015: 6.1 fWAR (#9)
2021: 7.1 fWAR (#3)

Edge to 2021 though I like 2015

Defence:
The one of 3 things that 2015 has that 2021 can’t hold a candle to is defence. That 2015 was a near elite defensive team. Pillar, Goins, JD, Martin and Tulo were at worst top 5 defensively at their respective positions. Probably the 5 most important positions on the field except for pitcher. Bautista was above average though I can’t remember if this was the season he hurt his shoulder. EE/Smoak and Revere were passable at those positions.

DEF Rating:
2015: 17.7 (#4)
2021: 3.8 (#12)

Big Edge to 2015

Bullpen:
The 2nd thing is the pen. A healthy Merryweather and Pearson changes this conversation a little but Osuna and Sanchez is better than Romano and Mayza. Many forget (including me) that our third best reliever in 2015 was Liam Hendriks and we had a big shutdown lefty in Cecil. That’s 4 1+ WAR relievers.

Osuna > Romano
Sanchez > Merryweather
Hendriks > Cimber
Cecil > Mayza
Hawkins > Richards
Lowe > Soria
Loup < Borucki
Hutchison < Stripling
Tepera = Pearson

2015: 3.4 fWAR (#13)
2021: 0.7 fWAR (#27)

Massive Edge 2015

Coaching:
And the 3rd and final X factor is coaching. The series likely goes 7 for sure but I give 2015 the edge because of that pen and Gibby managing that pen. Montoyo is bound to cost the 2021 team at least a game.

upload_2021-9-17_1-11-3.gif


Vs

upload_2021-9-17_1-13-12.gif


Massive Edge 2015

2015 in 6 or 7 games
 
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tmlms13 said:
2021, almost completely because of offense, way deeper.

2015 was the big 3 and 6 guys who could get hot or cold... 2021 is legit 5 deep then 4 guys who could get hot or cold.

Starting pitching is probably a wash assuming you go down to 3 for a playoff series.... Price/Estrada/Stroman vs Ray/Berrios/Manoah (or Ryu)

Bullpen is a slight edge to 2015 Cecil/Sanchez/Osuna was pretty legit.
Click to expand...
Agree with this pretty much. I compared the starting 9 and the only ones that were much better than now are JD (3B), EE (DH), and Tulo’s glove at short (I’m taking Bo’s hitting all day tho). Bautista I’ll take over Teo but it’s not as wide as some may think.

Pitching I’d probably take 2021’s too. Ray and Price sorta cancel each other out, Berrios I’ll take over Stroman and Monaoh I’ll take over Dickey. Estrada is better than current Ryu tho and yes their bullpen objectively stronger in 2015
 
Realistically though if they go with Ray/Manoah/Berrios/Ryu, then Matz is coming out of the bullpen and his stuff probably plays even better out of the bullpen than it does as a starter because he can actually throw with velocity. Matz being in the bullpen means you can go Matz/Richards/Cimber/Mayza/Merryweather/Romano, which is pretty strong and might actually be comparable to 2015.
 
Maestro84 said:
Agree with this pretty much. I compared the starting 9 and the only ones that were much better than now are JD (3B), EE (DH), and Tulo’s glove at short (I’m taking Bo’s hitting all day tho). Bautista I’ll take over Teo but it’s not as wide as some may think.

Pitching I’d probably take 2021’s too. Ray and Price sorta cancel each other out, Berrios I’ll take over Stroman and Monaoh I’ll take over Dickey. Estrada is better than current Ryu tho and yes their bullpen objectively stronger in 2015
Click to expand...

EE vs Springer would be interesting for DH. I probably take a healthy Springer but if Springer is hurt I’m taking EE. And I’d take Pillar over Grichuk because Springer isn’t playing CF. Martin over Kirk would be tough but the game calling aspect would interesting so Martin’s all around game vs Kirk’s bat.

Imagine if we could combine the teams. Each team’s deficiencies pretty much lineup with each other.

C: Martin
1B: Vlad
2B: Semien
SS: Bichette
3B: Donaldson
RF: Bautista
CF: Pillar
LF: Teoscar
DH: Springer or EE
 


Grichuk likely gets there as he has 22 HRs and 81 RBIs. Gurriel has an outside shot with 19 HRs and 80 RBIs.

A healthy Springer would have got there and maybe a full season of Kirk too. Could have been almost full lineup, 8 guys.
 
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Not a fan of trading 2 young prospects for Soria to let Overton go for nothing. Hopefully Soria proves his worth.

4 innings of shut out ball for Overton.
4 Ks
1 BBs
0 ERs
2 Hits

A tick up on his fastball too.
 
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zeke said:
Not sure this offense is deeper.

wRC+

Guerrero 171 --- Donaldson 154
Springer 138 ---- Encarnacion 150
Teoscar 137 ------ Bautista 148
Semien 135 ------- Colabello 143
Kirk 123 ------------ Travis 136
Bichette 119 ------ Martin 115
Gurriel 113 -------- Tulowitzki 101
Jansen 103 --------- Revere 98
Espinal 103 -------- Pillar 94

Lamb 96 ------------- Smoak 108
Grichuk 94 --------- Carrera 90
Valera 84 ------------ Goins 85
McGuire 85 -------- Navarro 84

Dickerson 94 ------ Barney 122
Biggio 82 ------------ Pompey 82
Dyson 52 ------------ Thole 34

Though the Travis injury was killer as it forced them to use Goins full time leaving the bottom 3rd weak. Hopefully we stay healthy.


Pitching staff I think it's hard to take Ray over Price though it's close. Stroman vs Manoah also pretty close.
Ryu and Dickey close but maybe an edge to Ryu.
But I do take Berrios handily over Estrada.....so maybe the edge in SP goes to 2021.

I do like the 2015 Bullpen much better though. Osuna/Sanchez/Hendriks/Cecil/Lowe were all pretty awesome and this year's pen doesn't really compare to that - unless merryweather and Pearson decide to lock in all of a sudden.
Click to expand...

Colabello wasn't playoff eligible due to testing positive for enhancers. Travis was injured during the postseason. Smoak is the starting 1B on that team and Goins is the 2B. So adjust to that and the gab is quite big.
 
Bjindaho said:
Colabello wasn't playoff eligible due to testing positive for enhancers. Travis was injured during the postseason. Smoak is the starting 1B on that team and Goins is the 2B. So adjust to that and the gab is quite big.
Click to expand...

Well, fingers crossed we stay healthy then.

Already looks like we may need to stick Grichuk and lamb/Valera in the starting lineup tho.
 
zeke said:
Well, fingers crossed we stay healthy then.

Already looks like we may need to stick Grichuk and lamb/Valera in the starting lineup tho.
Click to expand...

Grichuk currently has the same 94 as Pillar had (only Randall was actually a good hitter for the first two months with a .839 and .804, then completely changed his approach and put up .666, .646, and .550, then is at .995 in September for OPS). His strikeout rates in the bad months were 25+ (except for August where he got sample sized on top of not walking). This month, he isn't striking out so far and he already almost has as many walks as July and August combined)

By the time the playoffs come around, Espinal should be available with his 103wRC+. Biggio and Valera have been a wash, but again, it has been a tale of two Calvins with healthy Calvin being good and hurt Calvin being an albatross.
 
Colabello was around in 2015 (slashed .282/.317/.513 in the playoffs) - he got busted in early 2016. The hitting gap between Goins and Travis is certainly discernable (as is catching routine popups but I digress).

I am a slight lean to 2021 right now - will take the deeper lineup and rotation over the bullpen and defense. Its basically a coin flip imo.
 
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If the Jays have a fully healthy Springer in the lineup and Biggio is fully healthy it would be as such:

1B - Vladdy > EE (Simply on youth and year he is having in 2021)
2B - Semien > Goins/Travis
SS - Bichette > Tulo
3B - Donaldson > Biggio/Valera/Espinal
C - Martin > Jansen/McGuire
LF - Gurriel > Revere
CF - Springer > Pillar
RF - Bautista > Hernandez (by not much)
DH - Kirk\Grichuk > Colabello/Smoak

SP1 - Ray > Price (only because Price flames out in playoffs)
SP2 - Berrios > Estrada
SP3 - Stroman > Ryu (Stro is a playoff warrior)
SP4 - Manoah > Dickey

Bullpen definitely goes to the 2015 team. Osuna was a shutdown closer, I know we have Romano but edge still goes to the wife beater. Rest of the bullpen was strong with Sanchez, Grilli, Liriano, Loup and others. The 2021 bullpen has depth and if they pitch like they have in spirts can be competitive (Cimber, Mayza, Richards, Soria, Saucedo, Pearson and Merrywether) along with Romano. But edge still goes to 2015.

All in all, 2021 positionally and rotation the 2021 team is stronger with 2015 taking the bullpen. 2 out of 3 wins it.

2021 wins it in 6.
 
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