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Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

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im not taking a side here since what both are doing is crazy, but lets not just give ohtani the award if vladdy wins the triple crown. it would only be the 13th triple crown ever and second in over 50 years and vladdy would take over as the youngest player to ever achieve it (ty cobb was 23 when he won 1n 1909)

thats pretty damned historic in its own right.
but i get ohtanis unicorny status lol.
 
djdev said:
im not taking a side here since what both are doing is crazy, but lets not just give ohtani the award if vladdy wins the triple crown. it would only be the 13th triple crown ever and second in over 50 years and vladdy would take over as the youngest player to ever achieve it (ty cobb was 23 when he won 1n 1909)

thats pretty damned historic in its own right.
but i get ohtanis unicorny status lol.
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Major League Leaderboards » 2021 » Batters » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball
 
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Puckstuff said:
If we fail on Chapman/Ramirez then Grichcuk + for Donaldson is a really intriguing idea. Donaldson back would be fun.
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He's gonna be 36 this year and he's on a multi-year deal. I'd love to have JD back but only if Minny is willing to eat up a good chunk of his contract, he's also no longer the JD of 2015/16 anymore.

Seager and JRam are the two goals for 3B this winter without a single doubt
 
Maestro84 said:
I'm glad we avoided Bauer. He had two very elite months in a 60 game season and he doesn't seem like a pleasant individual in any way shape or form
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I'm not convinced the organization was ever all that serious about him despite the meeting(s) they may have had.
 
stickty111 said:
I'm not convinced the organization was ever all that serious about him despite the meeting(s) they may have had.
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I'm not convinced Bauer was ever that serious in spite of his social media teasing. The Jays seem like they would be the perfect patsy org to use as leverage against preferred destinations. "Yeah, I could take your offer of $X, but then there's Toronto with their good young team that I could join and haunt you for years to come. So you could always give me $Y to prevent that" sort of deal. As long as Shapiro and Atkins aren't super transparent about their dealings with FAs when talking to other orgs (and they would have no reason to be transparent to any degree because why feed useful info to your competition?) Bauer's camp could claim whatever it wanted about dealing with the Jays and nobody would be able to confirm/deny it. Hell, the Jays FO might even play along because a team outbidding themselves on a free agent the Jays aren't seriously in on only helps them in the long run by tying up competitors' financial assets. It's just a case of, like I noted, the Jays being a good team to play off as a suitor because the threat of a high end free agent joining a team that signed Springer and is bursting at the seams with young, elite talent is more concerning to another club than Bauer saying "pay me what I want or I'll sign with Baltimore/Arizona/Kansas City/whoever"
 
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Vladdy Stats (As of today) vs. Ohtani - Batting

Vladdy-
.319 BA, 165 Hits, 42 HR, 100 RBI, 107 Runs, .409 OBP, .607 SLG%, 1.016 OPS, 99 SO, 68 BB

Ohtani -
.257 BA, 120 Hits 43 HR, 93 RBI, 89 Runs, .356 OBP, .608 SLG%, .963 OPS, 168 SO, 59BB

With the bat where most MVP's have been won over the years, Vladdy outshines Ohtani in almost all categories. He is short 1 HR and .01% in SLG%.

I have always been against a pitcher winning a MVP award because the yearly award for best pitcher is called the Cy Young. In my 45+ years of watching baseball I have always been against the pitchers that won these awards in the past (Fingers, Hernandez, Clemens, Eck, Verlander and Kershaw). They should have won their respective leagues Cy Young that season. Which they all did.

So in the case of Ohtani, is he going to win the Cy Young this season? The answer to that question is no. He will be way down the list of candidates in the AL. Can his batting statistics put him in line with an MVP on those accomplishments alone? The answer is NO. There are 2 players on the Jays alone not to mention on other teams like Perez in KC that are having a better season. So is Abreu in Chicago!!!!.

So because he's a "unicorn" as some have put it. Being able to do one at an above average level (Hitting) and another at an average level at best (Pitching). He deserves to be the MVP?

And before everyone jumps down my throat, yes his pitching is at an average level. His stats prove it. Hes no ACE.

His ERA isnt in the top 20 above 4.00, 21st in strikeouts (135), tied for 20th in Wins (9). As of right now the Jays 4th best pitcher has better stats than he does all around in Steven Matz.

When Babe Ruth was doing his thing, he wasnt average at pitching. And was the best in the game hitting. Go look it up. And we all want to put Ohtani "the unicorn" in the same category????

Sorry guys this player cannot win an award being the best at one of his skills. He doesnt deserve any MVP honor this year.

Dont get me wrong impressive he is. But not a MVP.

And again this is all above and beyond not helping his team make it to the playoffs. He's not even his teams MVP what he is, is a unicorn like you all said. A side show that everyone enjoyed even I. But not the MVP.

Adios.
 
Really all I got out of that post is that they need to change the rules to qualify for the ERA title. Only 17 pitchers in the AL currently qualify (compared to 42 ten years ago).

Ohtani is of course 6th in the AL for pitchers with 100+ IP with a 2.97 ERA.
 
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BlueForever75 said:
So because he's a "unicorn" as some have put it. Being able to do one at an above average level (Hitting) and another at an average level at best (Pitching). He deserves to be the MVP?

And before everyone jumps down my throat, yes his pitching is at an average level. His stats prove it. Hes no ACE.
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I disagree with virtually everything in your post, but it completely loses credibility here.

Ohtani would be 3rd in the AL in ERA if he'd thrown more innings and would be receiving Cy Young consideration, but he's managed pretty closely because of his unique status and previous TJS. He's been worth 3.6 WAR pitching as it is in only 120 innings.

As a pitcher, he's been absolutely elite. He's basically been Robbie Ray but has thrown 50 less innings.
 
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The comment that started this was that Vladdy is not out of MVP race.

Some people don't believe that the second best player on a .500 team can win.

Some people assign some value to being on a competitive team.

Also, his pitching bWAR has increased over his last 7 starts by beating up on Texas x2, Baltimore, Colorado, Detroit, Toronto and Oakland (the stat that ignores that his opponents suck)

His fWAR has gone up but not to the same extent.

He's still the leader imo, but if Vladdy gets hot and his numbers improve and Ohtani keeps performing the way he has, i see an opening.
 
MS said:
I disagree with virtually everything in your post, but it completely loses credibility here.

Ohtani would be 3rd in the AL in ERA if he'd thrown more innings and would be receiving Cy Young consideration, but he's managed pretty closely because of his unique status and previous TJS. He's been worth 3.6 WAR pitching as it is in only 120 innings.

As a pitcher, he's been absolutely elite. He's basically been Robbie Ray but has thrown 50 less innings.
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No, he hasn't.

He doesn't profile like Ray at all. And you could make strong cases for him to be behind Lynn, Rodon, Ray, Cole, and Eovaldi in terms of which guy you would want on the mound for game 163 based on this year.
 
So he's pretty much a 4.6WAR offensive player (per both) but one says that he is closer to a Ryu level starter and the other suggests that he is in the Lance Lynn/John Means tier
 
Bjindaho said:
No, he hasn't.

He doesn't profile like Ray at all. And you could make strong cases for him to be behind Lynn, Rodon, Ray, Cole, and Eovaldi in terms of which guy you would want on the mound for game 163 based on this year.
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WHIP
Ray .994
Ohtani 1.071

K/9
Ray 11.5
Ohtani 10.8

Hits/9
Ray 6.7
Ohtani 6.3

Opp avg.
Ray .203
Ohtani .198

Opp OPS
Ray .626
Ohtani .616

FIP
Ray 3.36
Ohtani 3.43

Like, I don't know how much more similar you can get.
 
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BlueForever75 said:
When Babe Ruth was doing his thing, he wasnt average at pitching. And was the best in the game hitting. Go look it up. And we all want to put Ohtani "the unicorn" in the same category????
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Babe Ruth pitched full time from 1915 to 1919. He did pitch somewhat after that point, but only a few innings here or there and never even 10 in any season from 1920 onward. And he had some innings in 1914 but not enough to be worth examining.

So in that 5 year stretch his bWAR for just pitching 2.4, 8.8, 6.3, 0.8, -0.4

He started hitting full-time in 1918. Before that he was a part-time hitter with about 150 or fewer PAs in any given season. That means that he only had two overlap seasons where he was full-time at the plate and on the mound, 1918 and 1919. And his part-timer hitting seasons from 1917 prior are good, but not amazing.

his bWAR as a hitter in those two years was 4.8 and 9.1 That 1919 season is where Babe Ruth became BABE RUTH, god of hitting.

Seemingly not coincidentally those two years where he was doing both were his worst two pitching performances of his full-time run.

Babe Ruth was a good pitcher, and then he was a good hitter (understatement. He was an unreachable super-elite tier hitter the likes of which the game has not seen since). He was never both at the same time.

Ohtani is currently, according to baseball reference, 7th in the AL in pitcher WAR and he would be top 20 in hitter WAR, their list on the leaderboard is only top 10 so I can't be sure exactly where he slots. But this isn't about him having to be elite at any one thing. It's about him being great at both things. To the extent that the value he provides to his team as a single player is greater than anyone else in baseball. Because he is both a top-half-of-the-rotation pitcher and an elite hitter.


I'm also a) not sure what your definition of "average" is in order to make a ridiculously broad claim that he's merely "avaerage" at either aspect of the game and b) puzzled by where you're getting your stats in order to claim that Matz is having a better year than him.

Ohtani the pitcher:

2.97 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 29.7% K rate, 9% BB rate, 1.07 WHIP

Steven Matz

3.70 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 21.9% K rate, 6.5% BB rate, 1.33 WHIP

Matz doesn't walk as many players. But that's about it. Oh, and he's pitched about 17 more innings while having made 5 more starts (which means that Matz is averaging like 2/3rds of an inning less per start overall. Oh and Matz has more wins, but lol pitcher-wins-as-a-measure-of-performance.

And if we compare Ohtani to the 5 most used Jays starters on the year (Ray, Ryu, Manoah, Matz, Stripling) he would be:

2nd in ERA
2nd in FIP
2nd in xFIP
2nd in K rate
last in walk rate
2nd in WHIP

All those 2nds are behind Ray and Ray alone.

So yes, he's not having a Robbie Ray pitching season. But he's having an all-star caliber pitching season and an all-star caliber hitting season

(among qualified AL batters)
1st in HR
8th in RBI
8th in runs scored
46th in AVG
19th in OBP
1st in SLG
2nd in wRC+
T-29th in doubles
7th in walks

(among starting AL pitchers with at least 110 IP, which is the highest "bucket" he's included in via Fangraphs. This sets a pool of 43 pitchers)

6th in ERA
10th in FIP
9th in xFIP
5th in Strikeout rate
33rd in walk rate
6th in WHIP
T-18 in Wins*

*again, wins are a trash measure of pitcher performance because at least half of their value is derived from run support, which is entirely outside of the pitcher's control. It's not Ohtani's fault the Angels offence is a tire fire besides him an Trout.


So Ohtani's big fault is that he walks a ton of guys. But he also doesn't give up hits and doesn't give up runs. So end result is that he's an easy top 5-10 player on both sides of the bat. No, he doesn't win the Cy Young because there are better pure pitchers. And no he probably wouldn't win a purely offensive/position player award because there's Vladdy who's a better pure hitter than him. But in the context of any single player's overall impact on the game, nobody is doing more at as high a combined level as Ohtani. And nobody ever has in any one single season.

People aren't "jumping down your throat" either. You made a definitive, authoritative, but ultimately bad take underpinned by shoddy research and a variety of somewhat contradictory and somewhat personally biased assertions and claims and people are responding to it with a similar level of fervor. That's gonna happen when you step up with a shotgunned approach of varying arugments that range from "that's really subjective" to "that's demonstrably false"
 
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MS said:
WHIP
Ray .994
Ohtani 1.071

K/9
Ray 11.5
Ohtani 10.8

Hits/9
Ray 6.7
Ohtani 6.3

Opp avg.
Ray .203
Ohtani .198

Opp OPS
Ray .626
Ohtani .616

FIP
Ray 3.36
Ohtani 3.43

Like, I don't know how much more similar you can get.
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I mean, BB rate, LOB, HR rate

Then there's the fact that Ray plays tougher competition and had 2 of the most extreme hitters parks for homes this year.
 
Bjindaho said:
No, he hasn't.

He doesn't profile like Ray at all. And you could make strong cases for him to be behind Lynn, Rodon, Ray, Cole, and Eovaldi in terms of which guy you would want on the mound for game 163 based on this year.
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Among 54 AL pitchers who have at least 100 IP this year, he's 6th in ERA, 9th in FIP, 9th in xFIP. That's pretty comparable to Ray.
 
Bjindaho said:
I mean, BB rate, LOB, HR rate

Then there's the fact that Ray plays tougher competition and had 2 of the most extreme hitters parks for homes this year.
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Ray has been a little bit better and obviously thrown substantially more innings. Ohtani has a better HR rate. The main difference is that he's walked 1 more guy/9 innings.

But there is not a huge difference and if Ohtani had thrown more innings he would pretty clearly be in the Cy Young mix with about 4-5 other guys. It's ridiculous to be arguing otherwise or that he hasn't been elite.
 
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