Ehlers and his agent would take that offer as an insult and it wouldn’t even start the discussion. There is also a very good chance none of our current prospects become as good as player as him and for sure none are ready to replace him anytime soon.
Player Discussion: Ehlers
- Thread starter Hunter368
- Start date
Yup this is Niks legacy contract. It'll need term and length.
I honestly don't know how I feel about it. A player like him who's speed is the very essence of his game is a huge gamble when you consider his injury history, particularly a sports hernia.
He seems to have come back from it 90% but how will it impact him as he ages?
He might be one that we let go, and as much a I'd hate to see him leave, it might be the best thing for the org.
Just my opinion, but I think the Jets will do their best to hold onto their veteran core. They went all in with the Scheifele and Helly deals, and then re-signing Nino. Keeping Ehlers would be consistent with that. I also expect them to make a push to sign their pending UFAs (DeMelo and Dillon) or add more veteran depth at the TDL if they can cheaply enough.
But doesn’t answer @Jet very real concerns about how Ehlers will age. Given that so much of his game is dependent on speed.
kylbaz
Winnipeg <3
If ehlers doesn't keep getting first line minutes I can't imagine him wanting to stay here. He'll go somewhere that will put him first line.
Upperdeckjet
Registered User
- Dec 14, 2011
- 829
- 1,195
Are you saying that signing Nik to a 6+ year extended contract at $7.5 is the right move for the Winnipeg Jets? Opinions will vary of course, but mine is that it would be a mistake.
Last edited:
I'm on the fence here. There are only so many legacy contracts that you can have before it kills a team as they age out. Nik is a good player but he hasn't exactly been used as a core piece for the majority of his time here. Do we want to pay big dollars for a player that may find himself stapled to line 2 and the second pp unit as he has been most of his career here. Does that make sense from a cap perspective, I'm not really sure.
scelaton
Registered User
- Jul 5, 2012
- 3,724
- 5,943
You are entitled to that opinion especially if, as you say, he is one of your favourite players.
I have also consistently been a fan, through all his ups and downs. Here is the argument for re-signing him.
1) He shows no signs of slowing down now that he is recovered from his sports hernia. One would not expect that to impair him in the future, nor would any of his other previous injuries. That is in contrast to other players who have chronic relapsing knee or back injuries.
2) His possession and production (per 60) metrics are stellar and he is an excellent complement to Scheifele and Connor, who are defensively weak.
3) Size is not correlated well to longevity. A player like Buff is much more likely to fall off a cliff due to size than an Ehlers
4)To me, he is just reaching his prime and his first line minutes reflect that.
The big con is his age. He will be in his late 20 s when he is eligible for an extension, so the same concerns that I/we had with Scheifele and Helle apply to Ehlers (although he will be younger than they were).
In the end, since the Jets appear to be going all-in on this core, there is a strong argument to retain him. As Bogo said above, there is a very small likelihood that any of our prospects in the minors tops out as a top-3 F with his unique skill set.
The big question is AAV and length of contract. I would support 7.5 with the cap going up, IF he continues in this role, with these minutes and stays healthy.
Still a bit of time left before inking him
But 5 years or less 7ishM I think is fair
Couple of similarly aged, and oft-compared players (nylander and Reinhart) are due this year. Both have mightily surpassed Ehlers so I think those may serve as a top-end benchmark.
But 5 years or less 7ishM I think is fair
Couple of similarly aged, and oft-compared players (nylander and Reinhart) are due this year. Both have mightily surpassed Ehlers so I think those may serve as a top-end benchmark.
Buffdog
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2019
- 8,356
- 20,312
It'll be interesting to watch this negotiation play out (if he indeed ends up extending)
This may be a glimpse into how much the org values secondary metrics like "driving the play", zone entrances/exits, %GF, etc.. More than a couple of posters point this stuff out regularly. Someone did the other day when there was a connor/ehlers comparison discussion
This may be a glimpse into how much the org values secondary metrics like "driving the play", zone entrances/exits, %GF, etc.. More than a couple of posters point this stuff out regularly. Someone did the other day when there was a connor/ehlers comparison discussion
jokesondee
I’m not fat. I’m cultivating mass.
IMO he's more of a luxury than a necessity. I would be ok trading him for a top pairing dman if such a trade could be made.
I don't disagree - id bet it'll be a really fair contract too, I just worry about how it'll age
Channelcat
Mennonite
Ehlers is a unique player and a phenomenal talent, but if they are looking for long term at 7+, I would move on from him.......without hesitation.
1-he hasn't been able to stay healthy for about six seasons now
2-he is a dismal playoff performer.
1-he hasn't been able to stay healthy for about six seasons now
2-he is a dismal playoff performer.
I mean most of them haven't been good enough in the playoffs. His health is definitely a concern.
jokesondee
I’m not fat. I’m cultivating mass.
4 goals in 32 career playoff games in a top 6 role is gawdawful.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,937
- 31,447
To varying degrees. A players playstyle and effectiveness can be more or less transferable with age. Then you add the sports hernia and it's not unreasonable to be concerned
Not sure I need to answer how it will age, as that is not really a concern I have. I think all these legacy contracts will age poorly, but IMO that is the cost of trying to win a cup. Players want to get paid and if you want to keep them you have to pay them. If you don't eventually you have everyone angling to get out as soon as they can.
Sure, but, there is a difference between a player falling off in the last 1 or 2 and the contract aging poorly 2 years in, in a 6 year deal.
I don’t see any chance of that. Ehlers is looking like his old self. Without evidence of an unusually quick drop off you need to default to a normal aging curve.
Nik's injury history the past few years has me concerned about a long-term contract. He's scoring at 0.82 rate the last 3 years or about 67 pt pace over 82 gm season. Trouble is he doesn't tend to play all 82 gms in a year. He's only reached 60+ points twice in his career early on when he did play 82 gms.
That said, he should command $7+M/year, imo. That makes his contract a significant risk, which Chevy isn't known to take.
I'm hopeful McGroarty or Barlow can reach 60 pts in a few years. May not be as fast, but they have sandpaper and loads of character which is what the org is trying to maintain.
That said, he should command $7+M/year, imo. That makes his contract a significant risk, which Chevy isn't known to take.
I'm hopeful McGroarty or Barlow can reach 60 pts in a few years. May not be as fast, but they have sandpaper and loads of character which is what the org is trying to maintain.
In general I agree, but I think Ehlers is a bit of a unique situation.
They’ve committed to Scheifele and Hellebuyck so I don’t see everyone angling to get out as soon as they can if the team decides to walk away from Ehlers. I think I would bring him back, but his injury history concerns me. I can see that being a tie up on a new contract.
- Jun 10, 2014
- 58,937
- 31,447
The sports hernia is only a concern for players 30+ at the time of the surgery. Extremely age dependent, for some reason.
All of the other factors that people like to base longevity estimates on are anecdotal. I don't think anyone has come up with a reliable model for a player type that lasts longer, other than better players lasting longer than poorer ones.
IMO his injury history COULD be cause for concern, if he continues to lose more than avg time to injury.
Beyond that, I think it is reasonable to be concerned with any big $$$, long term contract. Moreso as players age. Ehlers will be 29 when his next contract kicks in. Scheifele and Hellebuyck will both be 31 when their new contracts kick in.
jetsforever
Registered User
- Dec 14, 2013
- 28,030
- 24,525
I think he's a good off-ice guy too to keep around, FWIW
I'd be happy if it's 7-8M AAV with the way contracts are going these days
I'd be happy if it's 7-8M AAV with the way contracts are going these days
JetsFan815
Replacement Level Poster
- Jan 16, 2012
- 19,691
- 25,766
If the sports hernia had impact we'd have seen it by now. He returned from the hernia last winter and produced points at a better clip than he had pre-hernia.
