Player Discussion: Ehlers

[TommyKillian]

I always thought Ehlers Scheif Wheeler played well together but PM didn't play them together all that much.

Agreed. Ehlers is perennially underrated. I know it's been beaten to death on these boards, but it's crazy how much better Ehlers on-ice results were than Connor's pretty well every year since they've both been on this team.

For context, this year Ehlers is +9 at even strength, and Connor, despite personally scoring far more than Ehlers, is 0. Over the last 2.5 seasons Ehlers is +36 and Connor is -2. This is the most basic metric, but I also think, over a period of time as long as a few seasons, one of the best measures of a player's even strength impact. Connor is of course a stud on the power play, but I cannot think of a single reason that he should be playing more than Ehlers at even strength. If Ehlers contract ends up in the Connor range, we should all be very happy (even accounting for obvious durability concerns).

 

[Adam da bomb]

Agreed. Ehlers is perennially underrated. I know it's been beaten to death on these boards, but it's crazy how much better Ehlers on-ice results were than Connor's pretty well every year since they've both been on this team.

For context, this year Ehlers is +9 at even strength, and Connor, despite personally scoring far more than Ehlers, is 0. Over the last 2.5 seasons Ehlers is +36 and Connor is -2. This is the most basic metric, but I also think, over a period of time as long as a few seasons, one of the best measures of a player's even strength impact. Connor is of course a stud on the power play, but I cannot think of a single reason that he should be playing more than Ehlers at even strength. If Ehlers contract ends up in the Connor range, we should all be very happy (even accounting for obvious durability concerns).

Not another Ehlers vs Connor debate eek. Lots of players have a lot to learn from Ehlers, get off the ice as quickly after a rush instead of overstaying easier to keep metrics up. Kc stays on ice too long so other team has an advantage against a tired player.
Also not same match ups. Lucky to have both. But goal scoring equals bucks more than other skills.

 

[Deno]

I would be willing to go close to 7 because you need some speed on your team especially one that can put the puck in the net. Totally agree about the PLD trade, it made us much better but you can't expect Chevy to make such a one sided trade all the time so who knows what a trade for Ehlers would do to the team, it could easily make us weaker too .

I also would be ok with anything close to 7M. This way Ehlers gets a raise. Anything more then that is a over payment. Ehlers speed will only slow over the next few years as he pushes 30. I like Ehlers a lot. He is by far the most fun player to watch. The team just can't over pay to keep him.

As for Chevy, he seem to win many more trades then he loses by a long shot. It seems every time a player wants out and limits Chevy's option he still comes up with a good trade. Every time he is serve lemons he keeps making great lemonade with it.

Full discloser, I was advocating for Chevy to be replaced last summer. 11 years at the GM job is a very long time in the NHL and I felt the team was moving backwards and the cup window was closed. I see now that I may have underestimated how much the PLD trade has improved the team. Truth is, this year's team (so far) looks like a cup contender day in and day out. Except 2017/18 season I can not say that about any other season.

 

[robertocarlos]

Should probably trade Ehlers for a #2D while he is hot.

Agreed. Ehlers is perennially underrated. I know it's been beaten to death on these boards, but it's crazy how much better Ehlers on-ice results were than Connor's pretty well every year since they've both been on this team.

For context, this year Ehlers is +9 at even strength, and Connor, despite personally scoring far more than Ehlers, is 0. Over the last 2.5 seasons Ehlers is +36 and Connor is -2. This is the most basic metric, but I also think, over a period of time as long as a few seasons, one of the best measures of a player's even strength impact. Connor is of course a stud on the power play, but I cannot think of a single reason that he should be playing more than Ehlers at even strength. If Ehlers contract ends up in the Connor range, we should all be very happy (even accounting for obvious durability concerns).

Plus or minus is not a great stat. Why should I be judged when its all the people I work with who screwed up time and time again.

 

[Atoyot]

Ehlers is a 60 point player despite never having any extended opportunities on the first line or first powerplay unit. He's always produced better when put up but it's never stuck. Saying he's a 60 point player when he's only ever been used in a secondary role doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

 

[Inanna]

Plus or minus is not a great stat. Why should I be judged when its all the people I work with who screwed up time and time again.

That reminds me of that famous quote: "How can I soar like an eagle when I'm surrounded by pylons. "

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers is a 60 point player despite never having any extended opportunities on the first line or first powerplay unit. He's always produced better when put up but it's never stuck. Saying he's a 60 point player when he's only ever been used in a secondary role doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

Yet when looking at other teams I don’t ask how were the players used just the results. It does tell you how coaches have valued him so far. It could be all coaches are idiots.
Would be huge if he puts up an 80 pt season.

 

[Atoyot]

Yet when looking at other teams I don’t ask how were the players used just the results. It does tell you how coaches have valued him so far. It could be all coaches are idiots.

Doesn't have to be that they're idiots, different coaches value different things. Maurice preferred a more direct style of game that Ehlers didn't excel at, so he became a secondary guy playing with secondary players. Also it wouldn't surprise me at all if Scheifele had Ehlers low on his preferred linemates list. Being a mainstay on the first powerplay unit alone would likely have made him a 75+ point per year player.

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers is a 60 point player despite never having any extended opportunities on the first line or first powerplay unit. He's always produced better when put up but it's never stuck. Saying he's a 60 point player when he's only ever been used in a secondary role doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

So what. 95 players achieved 60+ pts last year, and 120+ players were playing at a 60 pt/82 GP pace. Do you think every single one was in a primary role? He had a peak in the CDN division season of 0.98 ppg, however he's a career 61 pt /82 player. Last 3 years he's been a 69 pt/82 GP player. Seems to me he's comfortably a 60-70 pt player on average. Unless you make up a bunch of numbers and add it on.

Could he do more, sure maybe, so can many others if elevated. But don't think you get paid for potential anymore at 29 years old.

 

[Atoyot]

So what. 95 players achieved 60+ pts last year, and 120+ players were playing at a 60 pt/82 GP pace. Do you think every single one was in a primary role? He had a peak in the CDN division season of 0.98 ppg, however he's a career 61 pt /82 player. Last 3 years he's been a 69 pt/82 GP player. Seems to me he's comfortably a 60-70 pt player on average. Unless you make up a bunch of numbers and add it on.

Could he do more, sure maybe, so can many others if elevated. But don't think you get paid for potential anymore at 29 years old.

Should have quoted me there I suspect.
So 95 players, on 32 teams, scored 60+ points last year. 32 teams have 3 top line players, so 96 players. What you're saying is that Ehlers produced as a top line player playing 2nd line minutes with 2nd line talent and not a lot of powerplay time playing with much lesser talent on the second unit. Nothing to do with potential, it's what he's currently doing with what he's been given.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

If you think about it, it's weird to think that he's called a 60 point player, seeing how he's only done that twice. No one says Mike Bossy scored 50 goals 10 straight years.

KC played on the 2nd line over the past 2 years. He barely played with Scheifele at even strength over that period of time.

 

[Atoyot]

If you think about it, it's weird to think that he's called a 60 point player, seeing how he's only done that twice. No one says Mike Bossy scored 50 goals 10 straight years.

KC played on the 2nd line over the past 2 years. He barely played with Scheifele at even strength over that period of time.

A lot of that is powerplay. Ehlers scored 25 5v5 points in 549 minutes of ice time, Connor scored 42 in 1246.

As for the 60 point comment, fair, he has only done it twice, he's only paced under it once since his rookie season.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Uh-oh. Publicly declaring Ehlers is 100% healthy is like slapping the hockey gods in the face with a tiny fish. I now await the Really Big Fish.

 

[Jet]

Agreed. Ehlers is perennially underrated. I know it's been beaten to death on these boards, but it's crazy how much better Ehlers on-ice results were than Connor's pretty well every year since they've both been on this team.

For context, this year Ehlers is +9 at even strength, and Connor, despite personally scoring far more than Ehlers, is 0. Over the last 2.5 seasons Ehlers is +36 and Connor is -2. This is the most basic metric, but I also think, over a period of time as long as a few seasons, one of the best measures of a player's even strength impact. Connor is of course a stud on the power play, but I cannot think of a single reason that he should be playing more than Ehlers at even strength. If Ehlers contract ends up in the Connor range, we should all be very happy (even accounting for obvious durability concerns).

How many gwgs have they scored? How many games have they missed?

They're important metrics, too. Just because Nik has good underlying metrics with less time doesn't mean that would translate with more ice time.

Not to mention he usually has more favorable matchups.

Connor today is the better player.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

A lot of that is powerplay. Ehlers scored 25 even strength points in 549 minutes of ice time, Connor scored 42 in 1246.

As for the 60 point comment, fair, he has only done it twice, he's only paced under it once since his rookie season.

Just to clear, I know he could have scored more than he had. I wouldn't even make these type of comments had he passed certain point/goal thresholds over the duration of his 9 year career. It personally irks me though, when we're talking about pacing, and putting that ahead of people who cross whatever finish line - raw stats in this case - to gain that kind of a reputation.

I liken Ehlers to Steen, who's games aren't similar, but I think they're viewed similarly by the Jets fans bases (1.0 and 2.0). In the late '80s/early '90s, Steen paced for =/+ PPG pace, though he would routinely miss a lot of games. But, he actually did have a couple of 80 point seasons, to sort of legitimize that he was a big enough point producer. I'd like to see Ehlers finally do something like that for once.

I've been VERY impressed with his play since he played with Names (adjustment period), then with Scheifele/KC, and now.

To quote Sloan, "It's not the band I hate, it's their fans." Hate is way too strong of a word, but a good portion of his fans (edit: some of his fans) turn me off of him. I'm not playing double-agent, pretending to like Ehlers. Having said that, I never root against another person's individual success, irrespective as to whether or not I like that person. And he plays for the Jets, so good for him and the team if he keeps playing like this. He was spectacular his last game.

 

[DRW204]

Should have quoted me there I suspect. So 95 players, on 32 teams, scored 60+ points last year. 32 teams have 3 top line players, so 96 players. What you're saying is that Ehlers produced as a top line player playing 2nd line minutes with 2nd line talent and not a lot of powerplay time playing with much lesser talent on the second unit.

huh? it's not about labeling top line or 2nd line etc. YOU said 60 pt player doesn't make sense (i'm interpreting 60-pt player as the 60-69 range)

excluding this season....4x paced in the 60s, 2x above and 2x below (although 1x was his rookie season), & overall 62 pts/82 gp for his career.

can he score more if he got super favorable usage, and all that ...... sure maybe. you can say that for many players, probably every. but guess what, it didn't happen. and he's ~10 years into his NHL career you can live off potential for so long. is some gm going to come in and say "oh well gee all those 60 pt years should've been 80-90 pt years?"

and just to modify that earlier post... 104 Forwards (excluding Dmen since strictly talking Fwds) hit a benchmark of 0.73 ppg (60+ pts) w/ a min. of 45 gp (ehlers' amount). 15 teams had more than 3 Fwds... soooo seems to me secondary fwds are playing at 60+ pt paces.

 

[10Ducky10]

Should have quoted me there I suspect.
So 95 players, on 32 teams, scored 60+ points last year. 32 teams have 3 top line players, so 96 players. What you're saying is that Ehlers produced as a top line player playing 2nd line minutes with 2nd line talent and not a lot of powerplay time playing with much lesser talent on the second unit. Nothing to do with potential, it's what he's currently doing with what he's been given.

Except he hasn't scored 60 points for 6 seasons.

 

[Inanna]

A lot of that is powerplay. Connor scored 42 in 1246.

Also in 1246, Beaulieu Abbey was dedicated by King Henry III and Queen Eleanor, Robert Grosseteste translated Aristotle's Nicomachean Ethics from Greek into Latin, and Damascus fell to the vizier Mu'in al-Din Hasan ibn al-Shaykh after a siege of some four months.

Yep, definitely time I went home.

 

[DRW204]

Agreed. Ehlers is perennially underrated. I know it's been beaten to death on these boards, but it's crazy how much better Ehlers on-ice results were than Connor's pretty well every year since they've both been on this team.

For context, this year Ehlers is +9 at even strength, and Connor, despite personally scoring far more than Ehlers, is 0. Over the last 2.5 seasons Ehlers is +36 and Connor is -2. This is the most basic metric, but I also think, over a period of time as long as a few seasons, one of the best measures of a player's even strength impact. Connor is of course a stud on the power play, but I cannot think of a single reason that he should be playing more than Ehlers at even strength. If Ehlers contract ends up in the Connor range, we should all be very happy (even accounting for obvious durability concerns).

he's been perennially underrated for like 5 years now. folks know what he is esp. w/ the advancement & visibility in stats. at this point he's probably fairly rated teetering on overrated by some.

 

[Jack7222]

Find me all the other players who are routinely in the top 20-40 league-wide for 5v5 p/60 and have excellent defensive numbers and let's get to signing them all.

I think there's something to be said though that he hasn't actually had that crazy breakout year. Its really unfortunate that last year with Bowness who seems willing to give him more minutes that he got injured. Feel like that could've really changed things for him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets 75 this year, then again that's been said for a while.

 

[10Ducky10]

The long and the short of it is that he needs to stay healthy.
Who cares if you are tracking for however many points if you aren't playing 70ish games?
He did score 58 points in 71 games in 19-20 and 47 points in 46 games the next season.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

The long and the short of it is that he needs to stay healthy.
Who cares if you are tracking for however many points if you aren't playing 70ish games?
He did score 58 points in 71 games in 19-20 and 46 points in 47 games the next season.

Corrected. If it doesn't matter, perhaps no one should even track numbers to begin with.

 

[DRW204]

Find me all the other players who are routinely in the top 20-40 league-wide for 5v5 p/60 and have excellent defensive numbers and let's get to signing them all.

I think there's something to be said though that he hasn't actually had that crazy breakout year. Its really unfortunate that last year with Bowness who seems willing to give him more minutes that he got injured. Feel like that could've really changed things for him. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets 75 this year, then again that's been said for a while.

What are Ehlers' excellent defensive numbers?

 

[Jack7222]

What are Ehlers' excellent defensive numbers?

I'm on mobile and don't have stats handy but, GA and overall GD as an 'end product'. Maybe calling things like turnovers and zone entries and whatever else he does to lead there "defensive numbers" isn't right but whatever you call it he's the most net positive skater

 

[KingBogo]

What are Ehlers' excellent defensive numbers?

I guess this depends on if we all share a definition of what this means? Ehlers definitely has good possession numbers which many take as a proxy for good defensive numbers.