Player Discussion: Ehlers

[DRW204]

I'm on mobile and don't have stats handy but, GA and overall GD as an 'end product'. Maybe calling things like turnovers and zone entries and whatever else he does to lead there "defensive numbers" isn't right but whatever you call it he's the most net positive skater

From what I've seen in previous years (which I'm interpreting routinely as), he's rated closer to average to below average defensively.

He rates well in net stats (ie cf%, xGF%) bc he and his line are usually real good offensively. He'll usually rate V good in Gf% given its Helle backstopping and he's not a liability in the defensive end.

 

[KingBogo]

From what I've seen in previous years (which I'm interpreting routinely as), he's rated closer to average to below average defensively.

He rates well in net stats (ie cf%, xGF%) bc he and his line are usually real good offensively. He'll usually rate V good in Gf% given its Helle backstopping and he's not a liability in the defensive end.

What stats do you see as the best indicator of defensive contributions?

 

[GNP]

As much as I believe the Jets will resign Ehlers for 6/7 yrs, from $ 7mil to $ 7.5 mil per year, providing he stays healthy this year, I'd still be very nervous about resigning him for that kind of money, due to his very fragile body ? It's a big risk if your the owner, and it's coming out of your wallet. ( it's big money) Around a $ 50 mil cost over 7 yrs.

I love Ehlers and the way he plays his exciting brand of hockey, and I do hope the Jets sign him, I'd still be "very nervous" about doing so. I guess this could be said about any player, but Nik over the last 3 years, has been injured pretty much every year.

I think in the end, they will watch him this year before deciding, and then make their decision. If he has a big year, stays healthy, I think the Jets will go up to about $ 7.5 mil "max" on him. If he gets injured and is out for a month or 2, they may be only willing to $ 6 mil on him. So, a lot depends on this year. I also think he could command $ 7.5 to $8 mil as a free agent, if he chose to shop the market. ( interesting) and this puts a lot of pressure on the club, to resign him.

You also have to factor in that Ehlers will likely be looking for good term at 6-7 years, so it's a huge financial commitment. Be very interesting to see what happens ? but I hope a deal is worked out, and both sides are very satisfied with the deal.

 

[Buffdog]

I think that the idea of "pace" of point production is cancelled out by being injury prone. If he wasn't injury prone, we wouldn't even be talking about his pace (aka "hypothetical points").

Imagine going to look at an expensive used car and the seller say "it runs great, when it starts" as a justification for a high price tag. Turns out it only starts 75% of the time.

You'd be an idiot to not factor in the car not starting when negotiating the price

I'm a big ehlers fan hut not to the extent where I ignore his lack of durability

 

[Flair Hay]

I think that the idea of "pace" of point production is cancelled out by being injury prone. If he wasn't injury prone, we wouldn't even be talking about his pace (aka "hypothetical points").

Imagine going to look at an expensive used car and the seller say "it runs great, when it starts" as a justification for a high price tag. Turns out it only starts 75% of the time.

You'd be an idiot to not factor in the car not starting when negotiating the price

I'm a big ehlers fan hut not to the extent where I ignore his lack of durability

This is all a very fair way of looking at it. That said...sometimes really good injury prone guys stop getting injured. It gets to a point where the durability concern suppresses their value enough that when they are healthy they are a bit of a bargain.

Ehlers is not the kind of player we can ever replace in FA, and even a guy like Lambert getting to his level is highly unlikely. I'd rather just give a great player a fair contract for his production and look to save money elsewhere.

 

[Atoyot]

huh? it's not about labeling top line or 2nd line etc. YOU said 60 pt player doesn't make sense (i'm interpreting 60-pt player as the 60-69 range)

View attachment 784057

excluding this season....4x paced in the 60s, 2x above and 2x below (although 1x was his rookie season), & overall 62 pts/82 gp for his career.

can he score more if he got super favorable usage, and all that ...... sure maybe. you can say that for many players, probably every. but guess what, it didn't happen. and he's ~10 years into his NHL career you can live off potential for so long. is some gm going to come in and say "oh well gee all those 60 pt years should've been 80-90 pt years?"

and just to modify that earlier post... 104 Forwards (excluding Dmen since strictly talking Fwds) hit a benchmark of 0.73 ppg (60+ pts) w/ a min. of 45 gp (ehlers' amount). 15 teams had more than 3 Fwds... soooo seems to me secondary fwds are playing at 60+ pt paces.

I'm saying that if he's producing as a top line player despite not playing top line minutes, or with top line talent, or on the first powerplay unit, it stands to reason that he'd keep playing at a top line rate and then some with any or all of those 3 things. In any case, this is the first time he's needed to be *the* guy and has all those 3 things working for him. 2 games in and it's looked pretty great, excited to see what he can do.

I think that the idea of "pace" of point production is cancelled out by being injury prone. If he wasn't injury prone, we wouldn't even be talking about his pace (aka "hypothetical points").

Imagine going to look at an expensive used car and the seller say "it runs great, when it starts" as a justification for a high price tag. Turns out it only starts 75% of the time.

You'd be an idiot to not factor in the car not starting when negotiating the price

I'm a big ehlers fan hut not to the extent where I ignore his lack of durability

But also it's weird to say that he should be used lower in the lineup because of the numbers he doesn't put up when he's not in the lineup. When he's playing he produces as a 1st line player despite unfavorable usage. Him being injury prone hurts his value but it doesn't change what he is when he's healthy.

 

[robertocarlos]

What are Ehlers' excellent defensive numbers?

Once a year Ehlers defends his fly-weight title.

 

[Jet]

I think that the idea of "pace" of point production is cancelled out by being injury prone. If he wasn't injury prone, we wouldn't even be talking about his pace (aka "hypothetical points").

Imagine going to look at an expensive used car and the seller say "it runs great, when it starts" as a justification for a high price tag. Turns out it only starts 75% of the time.

You'd be an idiot to not factor in the car not starting when negotiating the price

I'm a big ehlers fan hut not to the extent where I ignore his lack of durability

This is a perfect way of explaining it.

That's why German cars depreciate so much haha. Beautiful machines but not reliable out of warranty

Another think to consider is Ehlers is also pretty streaky. He'll go a long string of games without scoring (see playoffs). Connor is more immune to that.

 

[Jack7222]

From what I've seen in previous years (which I'm interpreting routinely as), he's rated closer to average to below average defensively.

He rates well in net stats (ie cf%, xGF%) bc he and his line are usually real good offensively. He'll usually rate V good in Gf% given its Helle backstopping and he's not a liability in the defensive end.

Yeah guess it sort of depends where you consider defense ending and offense beginning. He always rates well in transition play including DZ-NZ iirc, and of course takeaways as well. I'm not sure how to separate what he does from what happens in the dzone itself exactly. Though still, being average in the dzone is still pretty far beyond many of our fwds

 

[DRW204]

I'm saying that if he's producing as a top line player despite not playing top line minutes, or with top line talent, or on the first powerplay unit, it stands to reason that he'd keep playing at a top line rate and then some with any or all of those 3 things. In any case, this is the first time he's needed to be *the* guy and has all those 3 things working for him. 2 games in and it's looked pretty great, excited to see what he can do.


But also it's weird to say that he should be used lower in the lineup because of the numbers he doesn't put up when he's not in the lineup. When he's playing he produces as a 1st line player despite unfavorable usage. Him being injury prone hurts his value but it doesn't change what he is when he's healthy.

It must be Summer given how much you flip-flop. The OP was you couldn't make sense why ppl have called him a ~60 pt player. Now you've diverted into top line vs second. There are both top liners and second liners in the league that are in the ~60 pt range. Not sure what else can be said at this point.

Yeah guess it sort of depends where you consider defense ending and offense beginning. He always rates well in transition play including DZ-NZ iirc, and of course takeaways as well. I'm not sure how to separate what he does from what happens in the dzone itself exactly. Though still, being average in the dzone is still pretty far beyond many of our fwds

Excellent is not a word I'd use to describe ehlers defensively imo, either by eye test or stats. But ya transition play for sure, which I think is separate, he excels in.

 

[jetsforever]

Regardless of injury concerns or streakiness hurting his value, I personally get more enjoyment from him being on the team than other players so I'd take that into account for wanting to extend him.

 

[Atoyot]

It must be Summer given how much you flip-flop. The OP was you couldn't make sense why ppl have called him a ~60 pt player. Now you've diverted into top line vs second. There are both top liners and second liners in the league that are in the ~60 pt range. Not sure what else can be said at this point.


Excellent is not a word I'd use to describe ehlers defensively imo, either by eye test or stats. But ya transition play for sure, which I think is separate, he excels in.

Not sure where the flip flopping is. I haven't changed my stance at all I've just provided more evidence to support it. Feel free to elaborate on that.

 

[KingJoffrey]

Ehlers is +85 point player with 1st line minutes.

Dinosaur coaches don't like him, because he's small and european.

 

[Jet]

Ehlers is +85 point player with 1st line minutes.

Dinosaur coaches don't like him, because he's small and european.

That's ridiculous.

He's not small (not sure why people say that). He's 6' and 175, which isn't big but it's surely not small.

He also doesn't play like a 'European'. He hits, fights and doesn't shy away from contact.

You can say he's an 85+ point player with minutes but until he actually does that he is not.

There's been plenty of debate about why Nik hasn't been a 1st line 1PP staple, but Bowness is the first coach who's given him a run there so we have to guess why that's the case.

It really might have something to do with performance declines with increased usage or injury concerns. I notice nik is also the first off the ice on a line change most times so maybe he is aware of how extended time impacts his performance?

 

[GNP]

Ehlers for sure has the talent to be an 80 -90 point player, all day long. We will see soon. Say he plays on the first line for 21 games, while Connor is out. Just multiply his point per game production ( over 21) X by 4, and you will see it will be 80 points plus. Not many faster wingers in the NHL, with a wicked accurate shot like Ehlers has. In my opinion, Paul Maurice, did not see the talent in Nik, and gave him no power play time, and reduced ice time. Tables have turned now, as Nik is getting both, and I'd bet he'll come in around 90 points for a 20 game sample size, (X4) figured as cited above. I have no doubt he has the talent to do this.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers for sure has the talent to be an 80 -90 point player, all day long. We will see soon. Say he plays on the first line for 21 games, while Connor is out. Just multiply his point per game production ( over 21) X by 4, and you will see it will be 80 points plus. Not many faster wingers in the NHL, with a wicked accurate shot like Ehlers has. In my opinion, Paul Maurice, did not see the talent in Nik, and gave him no power play time, and reduced ice time. Tables have turned now, as Nik is getting both, and I'd bet he'll come in around 90 points for a 20 game sample size, (X4) figured as cited above. I have no doubt he has the talent to do this.

We shall see. Hopefully you are right.

 

[DRW204]

I guess this depends on if we all share a definition of what this means? Ehlers definitely has good possession numbers which many take as a proxy for good defensive numbers.

not sure exactly what we are defining here. possession/shot-share (ie: CF%, xGF%) have an offensive and a defensive component. Good possession players don't always = good defensive players (ie: Ehlers was 3rd worst Jets Fwd in xGA/60 last year basically same tier with Scheifele & Connor, however 55% in xGF%). i wouldn't just declare X player is excellent defensively b/c of 50%+ in xGF% or CF%, especially when using those on-ice stats on their own aren't really a full-proof stat of an individual's defensive play.

 

[robertocarlos]

He's small 5'10" 160 in real life and that jaw makes him top heavy. You want a low centre of gravity like Crosby.

 

[Atoyot]

In the past 3 seasons Ehlers has scored on the powerplay at a slightly higher rate than Connor mostly from the 2nd unit. Not out of the question that he could have put up an extra 36 points to match Connor's output in the same time frame had he been on the top unit, so an extra 12 points per year.

In the past 3 seasons Ehlers was very rarely on the ice when the other team had an empty net, he had 2 empty net points in 3 years vs Connor's 16, Wheelers' 15. This season he has 4. Even at a modest extra 5 points per year just for being an option when the opposing net is empty it's a solid bump.

Opportunity is important.

EDIT: Note that this doesn't factor in time spent injured.

 

[scelaton]

1)That's ridiculous (to say he is an 85 point player with 1st line minutes)

2)He's not small (not sure why people say that). He's 6' and 175, which isn't big but it's surely not small.

He also doesn't play like a 'European'. He hits, fights and doesn't shy away from contact.

1a)You can say he's an 85+ point player with minutes but until he actually does that he is not.

3)There's been plenty of debate about why Nik hasn't been a 1st line 1PP staple, but Bowness is the first coach who's given him a run there so we have to guess why that's the case.
It really might have something to do with performance declines with increased usage or injury concerns. I notice nik is also the first off the ice on a line change most times so maybe he is aware of how extended time impacts his performance?

I've numbered your comments because they deserve counter-points.

1) and 1a) 85 points is a stretch, but it's mmmm...ridiculous to say it's ridiculous. Let's call it aspirational. If he stays healthy all season and continues with 1st line + PP minutes he is heading towards 70+ points. That is top-3 production by any measure and anything more is gravy.

2) He is very slight in real life, so there may have been a size bias in the early years (as with Cole). He has put a bit more muscle on that wiry frame as a 27 year old, which should help.

3) I don't see any evidence that his performance has declined with increased usage. In fact, the one season where he averaged (barely) over 18 minutes per game he was playing at a 70+ points/82 game pace. The only other time he was given >17 min/game was in his second season and he scored 64 points in 82 games. It's really hard to know what happened in the ensuing years, but his TOI decreased and his PP points declined to <10 per season in 3 of 4 years.

Fast-forward to the present, where Nik appears healthy, has a bit more beef on that slight frame, and is getting the opportunities that have evaded him for a good chunk of his 9 seasons. In those 9 seasons he has missed more than the the average number of games (NHL median = 69 games, pro-rated in '20-21 and 23-24) only 3 times, but twice in the past 2 seasons. That leads to recency bias, but should be countered by his larger body of work and the fact that he appears fully healthy this season (despite preseason concerns).

 

[10Ducky10]

Don't trade Ehlers, keep him and add a forward. Ehlers and KC on the same line would bring a ton of speed. We'd have to give up some up and coming youngsters and some high draft picks but if we could trade Schmidt in the deal, I think this lineup would be scary good.

Perfetti Scheif Vilardi
KC Lindholm Ehlers
Nino Lowry Apples
Iafallo Names Barron
Gus/Kup

That foward lineup should dominate.

JMo DD
Dillon Pionk
Sammy Walker
Heinola/Chiz
That's a defensive D man on each pairing.

Can't say enough of how our goalies have been playing lately.

 

[KingBogo]

In the past 3 seasons Ehlers has scored on the powerplay at a slightly higher rate than Connor mostly from the 2nd unit. Not out of the question that he could have put up an extra 36 points to match Connor's output in the same time frame had the been on the top unit, so an extra 12 points per year.

In the past 3 seasons Ehlers was very rarely on the ice when the other team had an empty net, he had 2 empty net points in 3 years vs Connor's 16, Wheelers' 15. This season he has 4. Even at a modest extra 5 points per year just for being an option when the opposing net is empty it's a solid bump.

Opportunity is important.

EDIT: Note that this doesn't factor in time spent injured.

Based on the last couple games an Ehlers - Scheifele combo with empty nets will score a lot of goals. Both are good at gaining and keeping possession and both breakout of their zone with a lot of speed. This is a recipe for scoring against teams pushing 6 on 5.

 

[KingBogo]

Don't trade Ehlers, keep him and add a forward. Ehlers and KC on the same line would bring a ton of speed. We'd have to give up some up and coming youngsters and some high draft picks but if we could trade Schmidt in the deal, I think this lineup would be scary good.

Perfetti Scheif Vilardi
KC Lindholm Ehlers
Nino Lowry Apples
Iafallo Names Barron
Gus/Kup

That foward lineup should dominate.

JMo DD
Dillon Pionk
Sammy Walker
Heinola/Chiz
That's a defensive D man on each pairing.

Can't say enough of how our goalies have been playing lately.

I can see you butting heads with the prospect hawks on the runup to the TDL

 

[DRW204]

 

[GNP]

Nik Ehlers is a huge talent if the Jets are going to make a deep run in the playoffs. I think he's a natural 70 -80 point scorer, if given the amount of ice time 1st line players get. Also add to that, give him a lot of power play minutes, on the #1 powerplay, and he's easily a 70 - 80 point player. We can now see his great production, since Connor went down.

Nik is the main play driver on that 1st line, and he creates time and space for plays to develop. When Connor returns, he should be put on the 2nd line, and we'll see what Ehlers can do with more minutes on the 1st line, and powerplay, like he's now getting.

In my opinion, he was totally misused and underrated by former Coach Maurice. We'll see what he can do this year, as he's in his prime years right now.