Player Discussion: Ehlers

[kanadalainen]

In my opinion, he was totally misused and underrated by former Coach Maurice. We'll see what he can do this year, as he's in his prime years right now.

Agree.. His usage was quite low with Maurice. Not sure why that was. As a number of folks here have said (and I agree with), he is a line driver now for Schuffles and Lardo.

 

[MardyBum]

I'm fine with the minutes management as long as they play him more when he's needed.

 

[Jets 31]

 

[DRW204]

Saw this old Scott Campbell tweet (RIP)

 

[WolfHouse]

I'm fine with the minutes management as long as they play him more when he's needed.

Now I'm lost - are Schmidt Samberg a solid pairing or disaster?

 

[JetsFan815]

Re-sign him this July 1st for 8 years @ 8.25 million per year! Get on it Chevy!

 

[Gil Fisher]

Re-sign him this July 1st for 8 years @ 8.25 million per year! Get on it Chevy!

Hopefully that Nylander contract isn't an obstacle.

 

[WolfHouse]

Hopefully that Nylander contract isn't an obstacle.

There's no way ehlers asks for more money than Scheif... and I don't think any other teams will be tossing around 11m contracts this offseason - so many teams squeezed against the cap...

If toronto thinks he might get injured maybe they'll pay him 11m to be on ltir

 

[buggs]

Hopefully that Nylander contract isn't an obstacle.

I don't think/hope that won't be the case. I think the Jets have set their own internal cap benchmarks. No question the agent will point at Nylander's deal however.

But Chevy has done remarkable things by setting Scheifele's contract both recently and previously. Mark's first deal (post ELC) proved to be quite a bargain and I think allowed Chevy to point and say "But Scheifele is making X as first line center on this team". Now Scheifele's new deal, which we're not all certain will age well, seemingly should set a similar benchmark for internal Cap purposes for the Jets. "But Scheifele is only making X as first line center on this team".

I think it will mess things up for much of the league though as a comparable. And I think some guys will get that kind of money, but if a winger in Winnipeg gets Nylander money I think that has to be Connor, not Ehlers and I say that with Ehlers being my current favorite Jet.

I do think that prior to this year Nylander had the edge on Ehlers and obviously this season he is performing very well. But Toronto paid full value for a 120 point season. Nik hasn't come close to that and even in our hopeful scenarios we forecast him out to 80 points. That's a big difference.

I also think Nylander's deal, in a cap world, is stupid. Sure it will go up but not so much you can pay four forwards $11 million + and fill out your team effectively. But that's subjective and time may well prove me wrong. I thought Draisiaitl's deal was terrible at the time of signing and it pretty much fell into line as a reasonable enough and good value as the cap rose. Though I still wouldn't use Edmonton as a model for sound cap management.

 

[DRW204]

Hopefully that Nylander contract isn't an obstacle.

Don't think so. Nylander has been a better producer, and in the tier of Panarin and Pastrnak the few years preceding signing.

The Jets have recently extended their key players the off season prior (little, wheeler, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, scheifele) so maybe we see something Ehlers this summer

 

[10Ducky10]

6 x 7.5m for Ehlers.
How much is a 60-65 point winger worth?

 

[Gil Fisher]

Don't think so. Nylander has been a better producer, and in the tier of Panarin and Pastrnak the few years preceding signing.

The Jets have recently extended their key players the off season prior (little, wheeler, Morrissey, Hellebuyck, scheifele) so maybe we see something Ehlers this summer

it's just that it's a long way from the price point we're hoping for. would it be unreasonable to think he'd get $9-10m on the open market? Maier got $8.8m. Ehlers is better and the cap will be 6-10% higher when Ehlers is UFA. He should be aiming for somewhere in between Maier and Nylander.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

And lets not pretend that Ehlers doesn't have better 5v5 scoring stats than Panarin and Nylander. Usage has been a major problem, plus he's been healthy for about 75-80% of the games that those two have played. Nylander benefits from the inflated opinions of the centre of the universe, while Nicolaj basks in relative obscurity.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

I feel that either Ehlers or Connor should be traded before their final year. We shouldn't sign every 30 year-old star to an 8 year contract.

 

[surixon]

it's just that it's a long way from the price point we're hoping for. would it be unreasonable to think he'd get $9-10m on the open market? Maier got $8.8m. Ehlers is better and the cap will be 6-10% higher when Ehlers is UFA. He should be aiming for somewhere in between Maier and Nylander.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

And lets not pretend that Ehlers doesn't have better 5v5 scoring stats than Panarin and Nylander. Usage has been a major problem, plus he's been healthy for about 75-80% of the games that those two have played. Nylander benefits from the inflated opinions of the centre of the universe, while Nicolaj basks in relative obscurity.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

I feel that either Ehlers or Connor should be traded before their final year. We shouldn't sign every 30 year-old star to an 8 year contract.

If he wants that much you move him this summer imo. Ehlers is an elite 5 on 5 scorer but he hasn't done much with the 1st unit pp time he's been given the past two seasons. Also his less than stellar post season play and I don't think k you go past 8.

 

[Adam da bomb]

IF

I don't think/hope that won't be the case. I think the Jets have set their own internal cap benchmarks. No question the agent will point at Nylander's deal however.

But Chevy has done remarkable things by setting Scheifele's contract both recently and previously. Mark's first deal (post ELC) proved to be quite a bargain and I think allowed Chevy to point and say "But Scheifele is making X as first line center on this team". Now Scheifele's new deal, which we're not all certain will age well, seemingly should set a similar benchmark for internal Cap purposes for the Jets. "But Scheifele is only making X as first line center on this team".

I think it will mess things up for much of the league though as a comparable. And I think some guys will get that kind of money, but if a winger in Winnipeg gets Nylander money I think that has to be Connor, not Ehlers and I say that with Ehlers being my current favorite Jet.

I do think that prior to this year Nylander had the edge on Ehlers and obviously this season he is performing very well. But Toronto paid full value for a 120 point season. Nik hasn't come close to that and even in our hopeful scenarios we forecast him out to 80 points. That's a big difference.

I also think Nylander's deal, in a cap world, is stupid. Sure it will go up but not so much you can pay four forwards $11 million + and fill out your team effectively. But that's subjective and time may well prove me wrong. I thought Draisiaitl's deal was terrible at the time of signing and it pretty much fell into line as a reasonable enough and good value as the cap rose. Though I still wouldn't use Edmonton as a model for sound cap management.

If KC asks for more than Schief than they should move him before then.

 

[heretik27]

I know in the past he's played mostly 2nd unit on the PP, but with KFC out, hasn't Ehlers been getting minutes on the first unit? How the heck does a guy with his talent only have 3 powerplay points on the season in 40 games? I've been forced to scoreboard watch most of the games because of work, but it's a puzzling stat.

 

[JetsFan815]

I know in the past he's played mostly 2nd unit on the PP, but with KFC out, hasn't Ehlers been getting minutes on the first unit? How the heck does a guy with his talent only have 3 powerplay points on the season in 40 games? I've been forced to scoreboard watch most of the games because of work, but it's a puzzling stat.

The Jets haven't scored too many PP goals on that unit so no one is getting points on the PP.

 

[DRW204]

it's just that it's a long way from the price point we're hoping for. would it be unreasonable to think he'd get $9-10m on the open market? Maier got $8.8m. Ehlers is better and the cap will be 6-10% higher when Ehlers is UFA. He should be aiming for somewhere in between Maier and Nylander.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

And lets not pretend that Ehlers doesn't have better 5v5 scoring stats than Panarin and Nylander. Usage has been a major problem, plus he's been healthy for about 75-80% of the games that those two have played. Nylander benefits from the inflated opinions of the centre of the universe, while Nicolaj basks in relative obscurity.

If Chevy can get Nikky signed for under 55's $8.5m hit, which I almost expect these days, he's done very well.

I feel that either Ehlers or Connor should be traded before their final year. We shouldn't sign every 30 year-old star to an 8 year contract.

no one is pretending anything about 5v5 stats. & don't need to sell me on Ehlers' proficiency at 5v5 or his rates. Ehlers still has 1.5 years remaining so i don't know exactly what he will get since those next 1.5 years stats will play a role too. however, Goals & Total Points get you paid for Fwds. in terms of production leading up to their new deals, Nylander, and we can add Reinhart too (same draft class) have been better overall point producers. so i think Ehlers will be below both of them.

 

[Maukkis]

Among the 370 forwards with 250+ minutes of even strength ice time this year, Ehlers ranks 8th at primary point production (2.56), 9th at total point production (3.19), and 16th at goalscoring (1.6) (sample size alert) as well as shots on goal (10.74). All numbers are per 60 minutes of play. Superstar level play right there, and it has largely been hiding in plain sight for quite some time.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

no one is pretending anything about 5v5 stats. & don't need to sell me on Ehlers' proficiency at 5v5 or his rates. Ehlers still has 1.5 years remaining so i don't know exactly what he will get since those next 1.5 years stats will play a role too. however, Goals & Total Points get you paid for Fwds. in terms of production leading up to their new deals, Nylander, and we can add Reinhart too (same draft class) have been better overall point producers. so i think Ehlers will be below both of them.

Ehlers can not go into his last year without a contract. 7x8 for both nic and cole

 

[DRW204]

]

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Sign this man.

 

[kanadalainen]

Would love to see Nik signed here.

 

[LowLefty]

]

Love his game TY -
He's made some changes IMO -

He used to spend a lot of his time free-wheeling (with a lot of east/west) - trying to find that hole he could slip through on his way to the net -
and teams were dialing in on that by isolating him and pushing him to shoot from bad angles or from too far out.

Now that he's using his linemates more, he can back off defenders to allow the line more open ice to make plays and settle into the ozone.
He still likes to shoot a lot - but now keeps an eye on his linemate options before throwing everything at the net.

The big change: The coaches are trusting / relying on him more - maybe impacting his "usage" which has always been a topic of discussion -

 

[jetsforever]

Saw a cool stat when watching the Leafs game last night that the Jets are 14-0-1 when Ehlers scores

(for at least 15 goals the only two higher are Rangers 15-0-1 when Laf scores and Stars are 17-0-1 when Hintz does)

 

[DRW204]