I hope the Oilers pay him that. He isn't worth it. His analytics over a three year period are not good. They were much better last year. His point total and analytics don't put him in the $9mm / season category, but I hope it does happen. I wouldn't pay him over $7mm. Let's not forget the 2020 season when Oiler fans were doing their usual........."run him out of town" special.
Yes his analytics were bad previously and had a big uptick recently. Unfortunately it's too early to tell if that's an outlier or the norm for him, but the contract is expiring and you don't have the opportunity to sit around waiting, it's time to shit or get off the pot. The reality is that timing issues are a big problem and there's nothing that anyone can do about it. I think if given the choice, everyone would be happy if their player was super average for a few years like Mackinnon and then only turns into superstar monster after signing his super average contract - this is not something anyone can control. We had to bridge Nurse because of Chiarelli, and it turns out he is entering his prime and had a monster season, which also coincides with the rest of the league paying more money to D.
Regarding the rest of your post - this is not how you build a team though. There seems to be an obvious disconnect between what fans expect and what they actually want. You stand firm on $7M and then he walks, and then the clowns on HF come in droves to tell us how much bigger of a joke our D becomes in his absence. Letting Nurse walk is a big domino toward pushing McDavid out the door, they are good friends and he's a very big contributor to this team.
How exactly do you propose Holland sits in a press conference and justifies letting his #1D walk when he's suppose to be making the team better in the middle of McDavid's supernova prime, while the Pacific division sucks complete ass? How do you propose he talks himself out of being fired when it comes out that in his opinion - "Nurse is a $7M D man and wouldn't take less than $9M so we parted ways, now I'm looking for his replacement", because he certainly would not be have an answer for how to replace the player.
$9M is an over payment, but this isn't NHL 21, you don't let your 1D walk because of a million bucks and keep your job. Regarding the rest of this thread, why do we keep seeing a strawman about whether he's a 1D on X number of other teams? Unless you have a viable replacement in house (which we don't), we are left with picking a 1D out of UFA - a deal I can only assume will be equally clowned by HF for being an overpayment. Where he plays on other teams has no bearing on whether we can replace the player if we follow the opinion of the HF braintrust and let him ride off into the sunset. Why don't you just overpay the devil you know and actually keep the team chemistry intact, rather than taking a flyer that some other comparable defender will be available next year AND that they will want to come here?
Too many NHL 21 GMs in here, looking at the cap like they're playing connect 4 where they pieces have no conscious will of their own.
I understand the Oilers need to keep Nurse or their D will be awful but if this deal is $9M or more this is for sure an overpayment. I just don’t see Nurse as a game changer and for sure racks lot’s of points just by playing with McDrai. $9M should be for players that can win games by themselves and that ain’t Nurse
No player wins games by themselves in the NHL, unless it's an extremely hot goalie, which funnily enough everyone considers $9M for a goalie to be outrageous, with the lone exception being Vas. Not a realistic stance.
How does one season at top pair level get you 9M? Especially considering the circumstances of the league this season. 9M would be absolutely awful.
The same way Seth Jones regressing still gets him 9.5M. Yes when you consider that the circumstances of the league are these new salaries for D, you can't cite the circumstances in the league and ignore this FA period where a bunch of D just got signed to $9M.